Live Event 2023 Brownlow medal live chat

[_Cerberus_]

Bont closed the season well which is important. Petracca possibly low to no votes in his final two games. I think unless Daicos built a massive lead prior to injury, that no one could close down. Then Butters would be Bonts biggest threat. I think Bont had too long a lean period in the middle part of the season, where Butters still did well. Butters also a chance to be in the votes the last two weeks as well. If anything goes against Butters, is that the umpires tend to take time to notice those who are not normally in the Brownlow spot light. So he could miss some votes where people feel he should have gotten some.

It is going to be close. Will come down to one of Bont, Butters, Petracca or Daicos.

 

[Next Waiting]

Bont closed the season well which is important. Petracca possibly low to no votes in his final two games. I think unless Daicos built a massive lead prior to injury, that no one could close down. Then Butters would be Bonts biggest threat. I think Bont had too long a lean period in the middle part of the season, where Butters still did well. Butters also a chance to be in the votes the last two weeks as well. If anything goes against Butters, is that the umpires tend to take time to notice those who are not normally in the Brownlow spot light. So he could miss some votes where people feel he should have gotten some.

It is going to be close. Will come down to one of Bont, Butters, Petracca or Daicos.

One of, some of or all of. It's a pretty good line up.

 

[hutchy31]

One of, some of or all of. It's a pretty good line up.

I had another look through it last night. If we take our WB bias aside, any one of the four contenders would be worthy winners imo. I have all of them with five best ons (at least), and Daicos with maybe 8-9 of them. If Bont does win, it'll be fairly fortunate that Butters had two lean spells (first four weeks and then a 4-5 week stretch post-bye) and Daicos obviously with the injury - but that's how these things go.

Following that mini-review I have bumped Daicos up to 33 and Bont to 32, but there are at least 4-5 games each where they're borderline on 3/2, 2/1 or 1/0. I've got Butters on 28 and Petracca on 29.

I'll need to look through the other few players who're potentially in contention (Neale actually has a worrying number of potential three vote games if the counts above are a little inflated - if the winning number is in the 27-29 range he might be in it up to his eyeballs). But at this stage the top four look fairly solid imo.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Petracca is still around $7. Seems like a decent bet imo. He's flashy and will pick up the odd 1 or 2 votes even in games where the stats might support someone else getting them. Bont probably gets a few of those as well though tbf.

My guess is that Daicos got to 30 before his injury, and I'm not sure Bont or Petracca got to him. That WC loss might not only have cost us a finals spot, but also his Brownlow (I have him getting one vote for that game, after Kelly and Cripps, but I hope I'm wrong).

Unfortunately I think you are right. Most bookies now have Bont and Daicos equal odds which indicates he may not have got there.

I agree with your sentiment with the West Coast game. Big chance it may have cost Bont which will be hard to stomach. If he can get 4 votes from the last 2 games he’s a big chance. If not he may fall just short.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Unfortunately I think you are right. Most bookies now have Bont and Daicos equal odds which indicates he may not have got there.

I agree with your sentiment with the West Coast game. Big chance it may have cost Bont which will be hard to stomach. If he can get 4 votes from the last 2 games he’s a big chance. If not he may fall just short.

Weirdly the fact everyone knew Bont had to poll votes in his last few games may help squeeze him across the line to get the 4 from the last two games. Whether its 2 & 2 or the most likely outcome of a 1 & 3.

 

[doggies ftw]

I don’t see how Bont doesn’t get 3 in the last round, so it’ll be the WCE game which could decide it, will 100% get at least 1

 

[hutchy31]

I don’t see how Bont doesn’t get 3 in the last round, so it’ll be the WCE game which could decide it, will 100% get at least 1

I hope you're right, but Treloar with 33 and 2, and Smith in his final game with 36 and 1 plus almost 1000m gained - can easily see the Bont getting 1.

Incidentally, as a club with virtually no wing depth I wonder if anyone is getting in Smith's ear about coming out of retirement.

 

[Golden_6]

I hope you're right, but Treloar with 33 and 2, and Smith in his final game with 36 and 1 plus almost 1000m gained - can easily see the Bont getting 1.

Incidentally, as a club with virtually no wing depth I wonder if anyone is getting in Smith's ear about coming out of retirement.

I wonder how much the market influences the votes in the umpires minds. They would be fully aware that dishing out lineball votes to guys like Bont in rounds 23 or 24 could be the different between winning the medal or not.

 

[Libbaaaa]

I wonder how much the market influences the votes in the umpires minds. They would be fully aware that dishing out lineball votes to guys like Bont in rounds 23 or 24 could be the different between winning the medal or not.

It is what will help get him across the line I think.

 

[hutchy31]

I wonder how much the market influences the votes in the umpires minds. They would be fully aware that dishing out lineball votes to guys like Bont in rounds 23 or 24 could be the different between winning the medal or not.

It is what will help get him across the line I think.

Yeah, could be. Didn't Cripps get a couple of votes late last year for a fairly unremarkable game?

Butters has come home strong anyway with maybe 7-9 in the last four games so that's baked in to his price/count and not much upside there. Petracca hasn't finished that well imo, maybe a few votes in there. Daicos obviously doesn't poll in the last month or so, leaving Bont as maybe the only one of the four to really benefit from that if it's a factor. He could easily get 2-3 votes total in the last three games, or something like 6-7.

I think after an expected three votes in the Richmond game, he'll need to go 1-2-2 or 1-1-3 in the last three at least to get past Daicos. Given there are two losses and a competitive field in the final win that's tricky. Will go right to the wire I would think.

 

[Golden_6]

Just looking at the all time leaderboard and Bont should jump into the top 25 of all time after this season.

Assuming he gets 30 votes this year, he'll need an additional 92 votes to catch GAJ as the all time leader.

 

[bobs head soup]

Butters wins the Coaches award. Bont 2nd, Daicos 3rd.

 

[coxman]

Hopefully butters has some mates to pinch votes off him, I don’t want a repeat of Ollie wines in 2021

 

[TiAn_]

Hopefully butters has some mates to pinch votes off him, I don’t want a repeat of Ollie wines in 2021

Would be very annoying

 

[_Cerberus_]

Would be very annoying

Sadly, my gut feel is that this will happen again. A repeat of Wines/Port, with Butters pipping him late.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Bont got 9 coaches votes against Eagles (Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

9, Cripps 6) and 6 against Geelong (Lobb 9, Atkins 5, Treloar ZERO). Eagles game will relate to Brownlow night, just a matter of where he places. Cats game tougher to pick, Bont will get 2+.

Petracca no votes in in round 23, 8 in round 24.
Butters 10 in round 23, 7 in round 24.

 

[tonzdogs]

Daicos will still win it

 

[coxman]

Butters is the dark horse

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Butters, hasn’t missed any or many games either.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Butters played in 17 wins
Daicos played in 16 wins
Petracca played in 16 wins
Bontempelli played in 12 wins

I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes in any of the four ways, Petracca would probably surprise me the most. But if the Bont doesn’t get over the line, this will be the reason why.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Butters played in 17 wins
Daicos played in 16 wins
Petracca played in 16 wins
Bontempelli played in 12 wins

I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes in any of the four ways, Petracca would probably surprise me the most. But if the Bont doesn’t get over the line, this will be the reason why.

You hope he gets the Cripps treatment in losses.

 

[ossie_21]

Bont will surely win it, he’s had a Brownlow level year and is above Daicos/Butters in most statistical categories.

Although it would have been better to have won more games, we lost about 6/7 games by less than 3 goals, it’s only really the blowouts where the winning team would realistically get all 3 player votes. Even in at least 2 losses, Bont was BOG.

Butters had a hot middle part of the year and pretty good end. I don’t even think he polls until round 5 or get going until round 10.

 

[dogwatch]

Butters played in 17 wins
Daicos played in 16 wins
Petracca played in 16 wins
Bontempelli played in 12 wins

I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes in any of the four ways, Petracca would probably surprise me the most. But if the Bont doesn’t get over the line, this will be the reason why.

And of course it's total bullshit that you are unlikely to get a 3 vote just because your team fell a goal or two short.

So much for voting on the best and fairest player!

 

[_Cerberus_]

And of course it's total bullshit that you are unlikely to get a 3 vote just because your team fell a goal or two short.

So much for voting on the best and fairest player!

Heaps of players have won it on teams who won f all games. Results help, but it isn't everything.

 

[dogwatch]

Heaps of players have won it on teams who won f all games. Results help, but it isn't everything.

Not too often this century. It's a modern thing driven by the inane chattering of the media.

Here are the Brownlow winners this century, with the number of games their side won-lost. Those whose side lost more than they won are in red bold. Just 3 out of 24 ... and even one of those doesn't count because the umpires gave more votes to another bloke, Jobe Watson, who was later disqualified.

2022 Cripps 12-11
2021 Wines 17-5
2020 Neale 14-3
2019 Fyfe 9-13
2018 TMitchell 15-7
2017 Martin 15-7
2016 Dangerfield 17-5
2015 Fyfe 17-5
2014 Priddis 11-11
2013 Ablett 8-14
*2012 Cotchin 10.5-11.5/SMitchell 17-5
2011 Swan 20-2
2010 Judd 11-11
2009 Ablett 18-4
2008 Cooney15.5-6.5
2007 Bartel 18-4
2006 Goodes 14-8
2005 Cousins 17-5
2004 Judd 13-9
2003 Buckley 15-7/Goodes 14-8
2002 Black 17-5
2001 Akermanis 17-5
2000 WoeWodin 14-8

Ablett at GCS is the standout exception but then he was close to the best player of the century. That's pretty much what you need to be if you play for a lowly team and want to win a Brownlow.

None of them had f*k all wins. The great majority were won by players in sides that finished top 4.

This used not to happen 50-60 years ago when blokes like Bob Skilton won 3 Brownlows before he played in his one and only final late in his career. The Brownlow in those days was regularly won by clubs down the ladder or outside the finals.