Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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Coona Blues said:
Awesome, but unlikely. Jack Delean will be in our likely draft range. Small forward who also plays a bit in the guts. Hits scoreboard, pace, pressure and genuine “hops”.

Plenty of players to watch, I am “following” Will Patton intercepting 3rd tall, athletic, maybe KPD. LOVE Nathan Philactides left footed, top level athlete, with quality disposal. Plays half back and would be a like fir like with Saad in a couple of years.

Naturally will be following mids to with a likely changing of the guard with our depth types.
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If he wants to go, any of these guys worth moving TDK on for?
or would it be more beneficial in a player trade for TDK?
 
TENACIOUS said:
If he wants to go, any of these guys worth moving TDK on for?
or would it be more beneficial in a player trade for TDK?
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Think there's a half dozen players that are worth moving TDK on to get a hold of, but they'll all be top 10 prospects most likely. Draft class is weak on inside mids but is stacked for fwd half players and quality flankers. Essentially what we're missing on the list.

Watson, Duursma, Moir, Tholstrup, Caddy and Delean are all types who I personally think would be well worth trading up for depending on where they are projected to go. Patton, Edwards, Philactides and some others are players in other positions that could fit a need too.

If H Reid, A Reid, Curtin, Mckercher, Walter Wilson and Lorenz end up having really good seasons that ends up pushing out one of these top forward half talents into a more gettable range which would be great for us. That said, I can't see Watson, Duursma or Moir falling too far. They are simply freakish talents that don't come around too often.

If TDK could get us a pick around 15-20 and we finished 8-5th on the ladder we could package that up and get a crack at one of those boys and keep our 2024 pick/trade back in with it.

I think that would be much more beneficial than keeping TDK who imo is surplus and doesn't really fit a need for us compared to what we could get in return via trade or draft.
 

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WalshistheGOAT said:
Think there's a half dozen players that are worth moving TDK on to get a hold of, but they'll all be top 10 prospects most likely. Draft class is weak on inside mids but is stacked for fwd half players and quality flankers. Essentially what we're missing on the list.
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There are some massive statements/assumptions here.

Yes, the early visible draft class has a good cross section of players who are not inside midfielders. With the strong core group there last year, there was little scope for under age engine room types aside for the universally touted number one. The focus was on a couple of underage talls and a selection of forward and utility types with a couple of prominent defenders to round it out. Something for every one.

To quote “weak in inside mids” is so very short sighted. Players such as Wilson, Freijah and McKercher have already put their hands up. Remember one Clayton Oliver was not in play until the last month of discussions, despite being prominent in BF’s. There will always be mids available and I am sure you will rethink that comment through the year.

Draft watching is so much about hype. We do have some hypeworthy types available, but let’s not be dismissive of the kids who have hardly surfaced yet. Duursma is decent, but so much to play out with “brother of”. Moirs “generational” talent thus far is more about being dual sided than his ability to win contests etc etc. I will enjoy watching it play out with an open mind.

The draft will be a spectacular one, but the seedings have a massive amount to play out. Be assured, there will be quality mids on the menu.
 
Coona Blues said:
There are some massive statements/assumptions here.

Yes, the early visible draft class has a good cross section of players who are not inside midfielders. With the strong core group there last year, there was little scope for under age engine room types aside for the universally touted number one. The focus was on a couple of underage talls and a selection of forward and utility types with a couple of prominent defenders to round it out. Something for every one.

To quote “weak in inside mids” is so very short sighted. Players such as Wilson, Freijah and McKercher have already put their hands up. Remember one Clayton Oliver was not in play until the last month of discussions, despite being prominent in BF’s. There will always be mids available and I am sure you will rethink that comment through the year.

Draft watching is so much about hype. We do have some hypeworthy types available, but let’s not be dismissive of the kids who have hardly surfaced yet. Duursma is decent, but so much to play out with “brother of”. Moirs “generational” talent thus far is more about being dual sided than his ability to win contests etc etc. I will enjoy watching it play out with an open mind.

The draft will be a spectacular one, but the seedings have a massive amount to play out. Be assured, there will be quality mids on the menu.
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You can say that and perhaps it will be proven true, I'm not really fussed either way... But some of the best footy factories such as Sandy and the Falcons are opting to play many of their underage talents through the middle this year which either points to a relatively weak 2023 draft crop for inside mids, or ridiculously talented underage group . Based on what I've seen I'd say it's more to do with this year's crop being relatively weak in that area but stacked in others.

There's always changes in every season from beginning to end and bolters/sliders and if that changes great, but we aren't in need of inside mids at this stage of our build anyway so to me I'm wrapped that it's the outside flankers and forward half talents that are headlining this draft. Someone like Matt Rowell coming through would serve us little to no impact.
 
Obviously apart from the exciting & prodigious power house Harley Reid, Zane Dursma would address some urgent deficiencies.
Zane will develop into a wonderful footballer, poise ,skill and footy IQ & and good tenacity, he ticks plenty of boxes.
 
The Blue Weirdo said:
How do you think Duursma compares to players drafted recently, like Rozee, Rachele or Phillipou?
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I think he's a certainty to end up a good player, where that ends up being I'm less sure of.

Could easily end up a half back or wing and his footskills and pace would allow him to excel. Up forward and through the middle he would have to show an ability to win one on one contests vs seasoned bodies and handle the physicality of AFL players.

Imo he may start as a bit of a Bailey Fritsch type where he is a fast lead up player and good distributor going inside 50. Fritsch is deceptively good in one on one situations, Duursma is a wait and see how he adapts at AFL level but given how good he is in junior levels I don't think he'll have any issues.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
You can say that and perhaps it will be proven true, I'm not really fussed either way... But some of the best footy factories such as Sandy and the Falcons are opting to play many of their underage talents through the middle this year which either points to a relatively weak 2023 draft crop for inside mids, or ridiculously talented underage group . Based on what I've seen I'd say it's more to do with this year's crop being relatively weak in that area but stacked in others.

There's always changes in every season from beginning to end and bolters/sliders and if that changes great, but we aren't in need of inside mids at this stage of our build anyway so to me I'm wrapped that it's the outside flankers and forward half talents that are headlining this draft. Someone like Matt Rowell coming through would serve us little to no impact.
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So, if Ed retires and we part company with Dow, Fogarty, Philp and perhaps/probably Cuningham, who do you have developing or playing in the middle in the twos? There is almost a “no vacancy” sign currently in the ones, but we must look to the next generation and have a viable seconds team.

We will absolutely draft/ trade at LEAST one inside mid type, possibly two. May not be at the pointy end of the draft, but Austin is no mug and comes from the Bulldogs model. I would personally look to draft one and perhaps pick up a state league or recycled type with a rookie pick after some promotions.

We can of course draft a kid, trade a mature type or draft a mature type for that coverage, but we will absolutely invest something in that area.
 
Coona Blues said:
So, if Ed retires and we part company with Dow, Fogarty, Philp and perhaps/probably Cuningham, who do you have developing or playing in the middle in the twos? There is almost a “no vacancy” sign currently in the ones, but we must look to the next generation and have a viable seconds team.

We will absolutely draft/ trade at LEAST one inside mid type, possibly two. May not be at the pointy end of the draft, but Austin is no mug and comes from the Bulldogs model. I would personally look to draft one and perhaps pick up a state league or recycled type with a rookie pick after some promotions.

We can of course draft a kid, trade a mature type or draft a mature type for that coverage, but we will absolutely invest something in that area.
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I agree with a lot of this but with the Campo boys coming in and plenty of veterans around the league who could fill those positions I don't think it's a huge need. Our half backs are getting close to 30 and our half forwards are an actual area of need. Someone like Tholstrup or Duursma could develop into an inside mid too if we were to trade up for either. I think that will be our plan for this year.

Then over the next couple of years be looking to bring in a new young midfield brigade as Walsh, Cerra and Kennedy getting into their mid-late 20s.
 
Coona Blues said:
So, if Ed retires and we part company with Dow, Fogarty, Philp and perhaps/probably Cuningham, who do you have developing or playing in the middle in the twos? There is almost a “no vacancy” sign currently in the ones, but we must look to the next generation and have a viable seconds team.

We will absolutely draft/ trade at LEAST one inside mid type, possibly two. May not be at the pointy end of the draft, but Austin is no mug and comes from the Bulldogs model. I would personally look to draft one and perhaps pick up a state league or recycled type with a rookie pick after some promotions.

We can of course draft a kid, trade a mature type or draft a mature type for that coverage, but we will absolutely invest something in that area.
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Lifted over from LM thread:

Key Defenders: Weitering, Young, Durdin
Medium Defenders: McGovern, Kemp, Akuei, Marchbank
Small Defenders: Saad, Newman, Cincotta, Williams, Cowan, Boyd, Plowman
Inside Mids: Cripps, Hewett, Kennedy, Curnow, Dow
Outside Mids/Wings: Acres, Hollands, Binns, O'Brien, Philp
Balanced Mids: Walsh, Cerra, Docherty, Carroll
Rucks: Pittonet, De Koning, Mirkov, O'Keeffe
Key Forwards: McKay, Curnow, Lemmey
Medium Forwards: Silvagni, Cottrell, Martin
Small Forwards: Durdin, Motlop, Fisher, Owies, Honey, Cuningham, Fogarty

Bolded are the ones that I'd have as likely Best 23 this season. Personally I'd have Owies in for Fisher, but we'll wait and see on that for the time being.
Italicised/underlined are the names I'm penciling in as leaving the list. The only question mark of those is on TDK, but I think it makes a lot of sense for us to let him go if he's considering it at all.

Carroll would be left as pretty much the only on-ball depth. Doesn't affect the VFL side too much, as we can just sign a few mid to the VFL squad and we're OK there, they just can't play seniors. There's flexibility in the senior midfield cohort to cover some outs without promoting like for like. Walsh, Cerra and Docherty could all move more inside, Hewett can play a little more outside, Acres can play a bit on-ball, Hollands could start adding that string to his bow - as could Durdin, Motlop, Cincotta etc. Williams comes back to a stacked backline and may actually see some time as a mid or mid/fwd.

That all being said, absolutely no reason not to draft at least one midfielder this year, as long as we've already covered the more important gaps - half forward, KPP/ruck depth, maybe a medium defender.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Patton is very much the Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart type more so than KPD. Very good player imo.

Delean I think can get away with playing mid at junior levels but would struggle at AFL level. He's a genuine goal sneak specialist more than anything else, can jump but isn't super-fast or strong, a bit like a more athletic Owies with a few more tricks. Positioning and reading the play is his best trait.
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If there is a "Tom Stewart" in this draft it would be a no brainer to select him. Rate him top 3 best players over the last 5 years
 

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WalshistheGOAT said:
Cowan is really the closest to Tom Stewart thats come through the last couple of years imo. This year Will Patton.
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Yep, Patton is the elite interceptor if we thought we wanted one. Would be “nice”, but with Weiters, Youngy and Kempy likely to patrol the backline for over five years, and some chance Gov stays, it is hard to see as a priority.

I could argue we need one more developing KPP type in the foreseeable future so perhaps some cred there as a compromise, despite being 3rd tall first. With S.Durdin a good, cheap foil to back up the big boys and Lemmey as likely to be a key defender as forward, we may decide we have enough key talls.

If TDK chooses to depart, there would be a valid argument for Mitch Edwards who usurped the hyped Jackson Broadbent’s first ruck spot as an underager for last last year’s carnival and has continued growing to 207cm. Pitto is good enough, but has had his injury issues. Mirkov may be an option and Hudson O’Keeffe, while promising and combative is still 18 and only 202cm which is becoming “short” for a modern ruck.

It would be hard to argue for drafting a high profile inside mid type with our first pick. The hybrid or “strike” forward who can pinch hit it the middle seems the popular choice.

I love Nathan Philactides, but as a rebounding half back in the Saad mould who is footballer as well as highly gifted athlete it is hard to see as a need in the short term. He is too good to languish in the twos for multiple years. With Cincotta seeming to be a valuable piece to add to the aging Doc, Saad, Newman and Williams, and Boyd in the wings, having already invested in Cowan for generation next, another HBF may be over commitment, although we need to sound Moo out on his intentions with the Tassie team impending.
 
Sin City said:
It’s not a bad year to have half forward as your biggest need.

Watson, Duursma, Moir, Caddy, Wilson, Tholstrup all very promising in this position. All of them have game breaking qualities.
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Agreed. You'd expect at least one or two of these names to be available at our selection. I wonder if we could acquire another pick in the first round and grab two of these guys.
 
bradfisher14 said:
Agreed. You'd expect at least one or two of these names to be available at our selection. I wonder if we could acquire another pick in the first round and grab two of these guys.
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Moir, Duursma, Watson will be pretty hard to get our hands on as all are likely to be top 5, Watson may fall towards 10 purely due to his height but he's without a doubt the 2nd best player in the draft right now. Wilson, Tholstrup, Caddy and Mckercher much more likely to be in our range.


If we traded TDK and somehow got a pick inside top 20 I think we could trade up to get two grabs at the top end.


2024 first (10-15) and TDK first (15-20) to GWS for their first/Richmonds first (5-10). I'd do that trade if they were willing to. Leaves us with something like 7 & 11 but not much else.
Trading Gov and Fish probably get us enough to bring in another 2nd rounder.
Trading Kennedy for a 2nd could be something we look at if he finds his way out of our 22 (Thought I would much rather keep him)


7, 11, 2x 2nd rounders, 2 4th rounders. Would be a very good draft haul, still think bringing in a mature recruit on low money like Acres and Hewett would still be a priority via free agency or trading a later pick.

My dream would be somehow getting 3 picks inside the top 20 and going something like Watson, Wilson, Mckercher. Would totally change our list in terms of run and skill, Mckercher has the Tassie risk but he's an absolute gun and exactly the type we need in our mid mix.
 
Arr0w said:
Last week Daniel Curtin 195 93 played as a mid and had plenty of the pill

Interesting to see where he plays against our VFL side
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Curtin is perhaps my favourite in the draft. He will be a monumentally good key defender. Most quality underage types can excel at the level in various positions. He will be capable in any third of the ground. Not necessarily a bad thing to swing a kid around before being plonked in a position week in week out for a decade or more. Ideally CHB playmaker who can be deployed to lock down if the situation demands.

Not likely we get near him in the draft. Logic says top three, but of course, plenty can happen between now and draft day.
 
Coona Blues said:
Curtin is perhaps my favourite in the draft. He will be a monumentally good key defender. Most quality underage types can excel at the level in various positions. He will be capable in any third of the ground. Not necessarily a bad thing to swing a kid around before being plonked in a position week in week out for a decade or more. Ideally CHB playmaker who can be deployed to lock down if the situation demands.

Not likely we get near him in the draft. Logic says top three, but of course, plenty can happen between now and draft day.
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lt would seem our finishing position is going to be anywhere between 9th-12th based on how we are tracking.

We are going to have to go back to the draft in a major way this year.
 

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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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