Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[swuzzlebubble]

Either we are keeping our cards close to our chest or we aren’t interested in the players Twomey likes around our picks.

I did a search for "Carlton" on the page and the only match was the Carlton Draught logo

 

[Sheephead]

I did a search for "Carlton" on the page and the only match was the Carlton Draught logo

Mmmm - Carlton Draught. He can run through my middle. Yumm!

 

[SOS Rules]

Reminds me a bit of Issac Smith, though not as tall. Would be happy if we call his name

Looks decent. Bit of run, nice skills. What's the knock on him?

 

[Wickzki]

I wonder tewho we're drafting this year.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I wonder tewho we're drafting this year.

It’s interesting as I think we have a really good list and imo Binns will go to another level in 2024 and with Ollie looking the goods day 1 and some senior time into Cowan, the 2022 draft looks like a major win for our club.

I know a key back isn’t a sexy draft pick but maybe we go down that avenue. I’m all for players who love a goal and can play in the midfield, so who knows.

A reasonably young list still so I’m just happy with whatever we do. Happy to even trade into 2024 for more trade capital but doubtful we do that.

 

[tarczonandjane]

I wonder tewho we're drafting this year.

Is this a wink towards Tew Jiath?

 

[AT97]

I wonder tewho we're drafting this year.

I heard/read some draft guru suggest at this stage the 2024 draft is full of midfielders and hbfer’s and if you need a tall do it this year. If true, I reckon we could do with a tall to develop for the backline, so one of those would be nice…leave it out draft guru’s to supply the name.

 

[Coona Blues]

I heard/read some draft guru suggest at this stage the 2024 draft is full of midfielders and hbfer’s and if you need a tall do it this year. If true, I reckon we could do with a tall to develop for the backline, so one of those would be nice…leave it out draft guru’s to supply the name.

KPP are thin on the ground in both drafts. We need next gen key defender soon. Could be hard to find.

 

[Kaladin Stormblessed]

Youtube expert (at least this year) chiming in here with the two cents but gee Caleb Windsor looks a Lachie Whitfield

6

Lachie Whitfield

Age

30

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.3

5star

M

6.3

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

411.8

5star

D

21.4

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

8.9

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.8

3star

MG

350.6

5star

D

17.6

5star

K

8.2

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

clone, movement is uncanny. Would aboslutely love to get our hands on him if we could with a trade up. Not sure why he isnt more highly rated, though understand he had a quiet first half of the year (which maybe the reason). Very impressive.

Darcy Wilson to my eye is more Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

than Dangerfield, doesn't seem to have the explosive burst but a very smart player. Another who would be a great addition to the list.

2x 20's picks seem to just be on the edge of the better prospects, hopefully a couple of good ones slip through.

 

[tarczonandjane]

I am no expert on underage football, so I don’t do much more than watch the 2 min highlights. But if Jiath plays anything like his brother, he should have a very big upside.

 

[gbatman]

Respectfully disagree. Whenever we're playing at our best its when our half forwards are getting involved up the ground. I remember the start of last year seeing Owies and Durdin bobbing up in the defensive 50 to help run the ball out and get speed on the ball, later in the season that completely dried up and so did our wins and scoring ability. Same happened this year mid season. Cuningham, Fogarty and Martin all got fit and helped turn the ball over in dangerous spots which led to quicker rebounding footy and higher scoring.

In my opinion Walsh Acres Cerra Docherty and Hollands are exceptional defensive minded mids but we lack potency and speed with ball in hand going forward because of our half forward line.
While I agree that Cripps Kennedy and Hewett can be exposed a bit in the running game I still think we can carry two of them with the amount of run we have elsewhere if we improve our half forwards, just like how Collingwood accounted for T Mitchell's lack of spread and defensive pressure this year.

Geelong in their premiership run in 2022 had a pretty mundane midfield overall, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Selwood, Atkins, Duncan. Smith + Holmes on the wings/HHF created a lot of run for them but their on ball brigade was ordinary. A lot of their quick ball movement was generated from their half forwards and half backs linking up. Close, Miers, Stengle and Cameron were ridiculously good that year at not only moving the ball forward at speed but also forcing turnovers and creating scoring opportunities for teammates through precision ball use.

Austin has said that we've identified that area of the ground as an area for improvement going forward, we have added two players already but I would be shocked if we weren't looking at taking one with one of our draft picks.

I agree, our half forward are either defensive or offensive but rarely both. We have had a fair few guys playing the role who have come from long injury layoffs. Martin, Cuningham for example and Motlop who is a first year player and does not have the tank yet.
Durdin last season was good playing high up the field but has struggled with injuries. Owies I think does fairly well at this and also does well nullifying the more aggressive defenders which I feel he is underrated in this department. He and Cuningham missing from the prelim really opened the door for Brisbane's defenders to run riot. Owies is also dangerous when we move the ball well with his ability to run and find space inside 50. But it comes down to our ball movement which is an issue and that stems to reoccurring issues with us lacking two way runners on the ball and on the half back line.

Our wings are fine. They are really good two way runners. Acres is elite. Hollands is a really good young player with an amazing running ability and defensive brain.

Unfortunately for us Walsh and Cerra carry the two way running in the middle. Unless Docherty is in there, they are the only two onballers who can two way run and it shows. It's a worry. It shows in hamstring injuries to Walsh and Cerra this season and it shows when we go into defensive mode and can't move the ball well resulting in us not being able to create forward space and scoring opportunities for our forwards.

I think the way footy is going that you really struggle to carry more than one one way runner in the midfield. A few years ago I would agree that two one way runners is fine. Not so much anymore. You'll beat most teams carrying a few one way runners but you won't beat the better teams on the big stage IMO.

Geelong probably won the last premiership before the game evolved IMO. The game has changed since they won that and it will change again next year as teams adjust their list and starting line up to accommodate faster and more direct ball movement and defensive and offensive running.

One of the big issues our half forwards copped was from our ball movement. That game against Brisbane we struggled with rebound and two way run from defence while up the other end it was the thing that cut us up. If your backs aren't getting it and going forward quick from the turnover your not going to connect with your forward well at all. If your mids are still stuck in defence or in no mans land when you are looking to go forward quickly because they are one way runners and have been positioning defensively you will struggle to connect with the half forwards.

When we did connect well with our forwards, a lot of that was because we had a pretty good running defence in at the time but the other reason was because we positioned our one way running mids forward of the ball. When the season looked over mid way through we gave our one way runners a license to do this and it just happened to be the roll of the dice that worked. When we came up against better sides in higher stakes games in finals we revoked their license to sit forward of the ball, robbed Peter to pay Paul and went with a more defensive game, demanded they get behind the ball more and hence our ball movement was poor in finals.

Come finals, one way mids behind the ball instead of forward, lacking badly in two way running attacking half backs. This is why in the second half of the home and away season our ball movement, forward connection and scoring was so good but come finals our ball movement, forward connection and scoring went to crap.

What we need to do to improve to be a premiership contender is to clear out a mid or two who have to be either defensive or offensive in open play for a mid or two who are two way running. Take the pressure off Walsh and Cerra as the only two way runners in the onball group and get that balance right.

Another thing I will say about our midfield group. Cerra is a better player when he gets to rest more and rotate forward. His forward talents go to waste because he and Walsh are our only two way runners in there. The other thing is hamstrings. Prepare for them to miss more games again this season because we push them too hard and demand too much of them because we are carrying too many big slow one way running mids.

The areas we need to improve on are:

1. Two way running onballers. Can run up and back at pace and be involved in both forward and defensive play.
2. Two way running specialist half forward. It's not as big of a deal as the top one but it's up there.
3. A forward/mid to up our onball rotations. Yep, we need rotations, would love a forward who could be big impact in the middle.

I think Austin has attempted to amend all three areas with the recruitment of Elijah Hollands and Fantasia.

Hollands could become the half forward we need, he could also become the forward mid we need and he may even become the two way running onballer we need. Fantasia could be the two way running half forward we need. Not sure if they see him as a midfield rotation or not but that is probably the view here.

As for the draft it comes down to quality available. We still have these three needs. I think it comes down to the mids, forward/mids and hard running quality half forwards and we take the best available.

Best case scenario for us is Hollands comes in and comes on in a big way. Goes into the middle and pushes out Kennedy and Hewett, is a two way runner and someone who can rest forward. We get to the end of 2024 with cap space, with Hewett and Kennedy on the outer as quality trade options and we go hard at a high quality two way running mid to go with Walsh, Cerra, Cripps and Hollands.

Also hoping that Binns develops really well as an onballer in the VFL and comes into contention as a two way running option there. Would like to think that Durdin can develop more and become a forward/mid.

You aren't wrong about the half forwards. But half forwards, no matter how good they are will go to waste if we don't get the two way running right in the middle and at half back.

Williams, Boyd and Saad should go a long way to getting that right.

 

[GeorgieBoyBlue2]

I agree, our half forward are either defensive or offensive but rarely both. We have had a fair few guys playing the role who have come from long injury layoffs. Martin, Cuningham for example and Motlop who is a first year player and does not have the tank yet.
Durdin last season was good playing high up the field but has struggled with injuries. Owies I think does fairly well at this and also does well nullifying the more aggressive defenders which I feel he is underrated in this department. He and Cuningham missing from the prelim really opened the door for Brisbane's defenders to run riot. Owies is also dangerous when we move the ball well with his ability to run and find space inside 50. But it comes down to our ball movement which is an issue and that stems to reoccurring issues with us lacking two way runners on the ball and on the half back line.

Our wings are fine. They are really good two way runners. Acres is elite. Hollands is a really good young player with an amazing running ability and defensive brain.

Unfortunately for us Walsh and Cerra carry the two way running in the middle. Unless Docherty is in there, they are the only two onballers who can two way run and it shows. It's a worry. It shows in hamstring injuries to Walsh and Cerra this season and it shows when we go into defensive mode and can't move the ball well resulting in us not being able to create forward space and scoring opportunities for our forwards.

I think the way footy is going that you really struggle to carry more than one one way runner in the midfield. A few years ago I would agree that two one way runners is fine. Not so much anymore. You'll beat most teams carrying a few one way runners but you won't beat the better teams on the big stage IMO.

Geelong probably won the last premiership before the game evolved IMO. The game has changed since they won that and it will change again next year as teams adjust their list and starting line up to accommodate faster and more direct ball movement and defensive and offensive running.

One of the big issues our half forwards copped was from our ball movement. That game against Brisbane we struggled with rebound and two way run from defence while up the other end it was the thing that cut us up. If your backs aren't getting it and going forward quick from the turnover your not going to connect with your forward well at all. If your mids are still stuck in defence or in no mans land when you are looking to go forward quickly because they are one way runners and have been positioning defensively you will struggle to connect with the half forwards.

When we did connect well with our forwards, a lot of that was because we had a pretty good running defence in at the time but the other reason was because we positioned our one way running mids forward of the ball. When the season looked over mid way through we gave our one way runners a license to do this and it just happened to be the roll of the dice that worked. When we came up against better sides in higher stakes games in finals we revoked their license to sit forward of the ball, robbed Peter to pay Paul and went with a more defensive game, demanded they get behind the ball more and hence our ball movement was poor in finals.

Come finals, one way mids behind the ball instead of forward, lacking badly in two way running attacking half backs. This is why in the second half of the home and away season our ball movement, forward connection and scoring was so good but come finals our ball movement, forward connection and scoring went to crap.

What we need to do to improve to be a premiership contender is to clear out a mid or two who have to be either defensive or offensive in open play for a mid or two who are two way running. Take the pressure off Walsh and Cerra as the only two way runners in the onball group and get that balance right.

Another thing I will say about our midfield group. Cerra is a better player when he gets to rest more and rotate forward. His forward talents go to waste because he and Walsh are our only two way runners in there. The other thing is hamstrings. Prepare for them to miss more games again this season because we push them too hard and demand too much of them because we are carrying too many big slow one way running mids.

The areas we need to improve on are:

1. Two way running onballers. Can run up and back at pace and be involved in both forward and defensive play.
2. Two way running specialist half forward. It's not as big of a deal as the top one but it's up there.
3. A forward/mid to up our onball rotations. Yep, we need rotations, would love a forward who could be big impact in the middle.

I think Austin has attempted to amend all three areas with the recruitment of Elijah Hollands and Fantasia.

Hollands could become the half forward we need, he could also become the forward mid we need and he may even become the two way running onballer we need. Fantasia could be the two way running half forward we need. Not sure if they see him as a midfield rotation or not but that is probably the view here.

As for the draft it comes down to quality available. We still have these three needs. I think it comes down to the mids, forward/mids and hard running quality half forwards and we take the best available.

Best case scenario for us is Hollands comes in and comes on in a big way. Goes into the middle and pushes out Kennedy and Hewett, is a two way runner and someone who can rest forward. We get to the end of 2024 with cap space, with Hewett and Kennedy on the outer as quality trade options and we go hard at a high quality two way running mid to go with Walsh, Cerra, Cripps and Hollands.

Also hoping that Binns develops really well as an onballer in the VFL and comes into contention as a two way running option there. Would like to think that Durdin can develop more and become a forward/mid.

You aren't wrong about the half forwards. But half forwards, no matter how good they are will go to waste if we don't get the two way running right in the middle and at half back.

Williams, Boyd and Saad should go a long way to getting that right.

Best 2 way running mid with pace and good footskills in our range is Cooper Simpson. Agree this is our biggest need, think we will get 2 of these type players just like we did 2 wingers last year and grab 2 balanced mids.
Who do you like for our picks?

 

[gbatman]

Anyone know much about Harry Demattia?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Haven't followed the U18 this year but by where he is expected to go could be on the cards. Speed and endurance are big ticks. Think clubs are going to really chase players who have those two traits so if he goes higher I won't be surprised. Sounds a good fit for us.

Speed and endurance in the middle. If it comes with ability to win contests, find the footy, kick well and tackle then that would be very very good.

Best 2 way running mid with pace and good footskills in our range is Cooper Simpson. Agree this is our biggest need, think we will get 2 of these type players just like we did 2 wingers last year and grab 2 balanced mids.
Who do you like for our picks?

I haven't followed it so I can't say. Speed, endurance are qualities we need to go hard at and I feel all clubs will. The game has changed and I think everyone has the message now. Pies won a flag because they had some luck and were the first club to go this direction, they predicted the anti-congestion rules really well.

Having a little look at Cal Twomey's guide. It looks like DeMattia could be a hit for us. Maybe Charlie Edwards? I had a look at Simpson's highlights, looks good, as they all do in a highlights package but he looks appropriate for us. Low centre of gravity inside mid with pace is very appealing. Looks a mature body, good tackler. Nice balance over the footy. Looks to run forward hard to get involved in forward play so there are some good traits there. Doesn't tell me much about his outside play or his tank but there are qualities there I like. Looks quick enough, clean hands but did look to give the ball away too quickly/panicked, but that can be worked on.

We have two pretty good picks, hoping there are players there who tick a lot of boxes for us.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Anyone know much about Harry Demattia?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Let him bring hyped up & pick up by other teams before our pick - I don’t like his little dinky kicks.

With limited viewing of highlights - He reminds me a lot of Fisher actually

 

[Michael Jezz]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Either we are keeping our cards close to our chest or we aren’t interested in the players Twomey likes around our picks.

Twomey did not associate 1 player with Carlton. You are right, Twomey does not have Carlton intel or the club is not leaking

 

[Doro]

Twomey did not associate 1 player with Carlton. You are right, Twomey does not have Carlton intel or the club is not leaking

That's excellent. The less gets out, the more chance we have of getting whoever we like when our picks come around.

 

[BlueTongue]

KPP are thin on the ground in both drafts. We need next gen key defender soon. Could be hard to find.

BlueTongue bangs his Ollie Murphy drum again

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[GT619]

I'd only trade up if it gets us murphy

 

[The Bighouse]

That's excellent. The less gets out, the more chance we have of getting whoever we like when our picks come around.

Unless they’ve already been selected…

But who do we have our eye on that we believe will not be picked until we’re ready with our 1st (happy to slide with NMFC) and hopefully the same applies for our 2nd pick.

Think Binnsy was the preferred one in the gun last year for our 2nd.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Unless they’ve already been selected…

But who do we have our eye on that we believe will not be picked until we’re ready with our 1st (happy to slide with NMFC) and hopefully the same applies for our 2nd pick.

Think Binnsy was the preferred one in the gun last year for our 2nd.

Yeah we were linked to Binns a little while out. Hadn't heard us linked to Cowan at all but he was projected to go mid to late teens so would have been thought to be out of our range.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Quick!! Someone ask Nat Southby who we are drafting!

 

[The Bighouse]

Yeah we were linked to Binns a little while out. Hadn't heard us linked to Cowan at all but he was projected to go mid to late teens so would have been thought to be out of our range.

Was more in the manner that the selection was made, referring to him as Binnsy, no fuss, got our man.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Unless they’ve already been selected…

But who do we have our eye on that we believe will not be picked until we’re ready with our 1st (happy to slide with NMFC) and hopefully the same applies for our 2nd pick.

Think Binnsy was the preferred one in the gun last year for our 2nd.

Do you mean that the draft is rigged or that we've intentionally chosen a player/players that no one above us in the draft could possibly want with their picks? I don't know which is scarier.

 

[Arr0w]

Perhaps, maybe, we will just take best available from our rankings

 

[Coona Blues]

Perhaps, maybe, we will just take best available from our rankings

Well, that is a bold statement mate. Considering our trading has largely covered our perceived greatest need and the draft appears to be lacking pacy mids or KPD’s around our pick range.

Deadset, if we get two players who become best 22 out of this rather strange draft, our recruiters are geniuses. I have more confidence that one or both of the Irish make it than I do if getting two “gems” in the draft.