Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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Well, that is a bold statement mate. Considering our trading has largely covered our perceived greatest need and the draft appears to be lacking pacy mids or KPD’s around our pick range.

Deadset, if we get two players who become best 22 out of this rather strange draft, our recruiters are geniuses. I have more confidence that one or both of the Irish make it than I do if getting two “gems” in the draft.
These two Irish boys look good, i can remember Austin saying that one of them will play midfield.
 
These two Irish boys look good, i can remember Austin saying that one of them will play midfield.
It will be interesting, think Duffy is the one considered a mid prospect, while Monahan is a forward in his native game and have heard suggestion he will be given the chance there with us. Seems, a lot has changed from Irish automatically being consigned to a HBF.

Kudos to Geelong and Hawthorn for thinking outside the box positionally with the imports and moving the bar.

We have enough players to try to fit on back flanks already.
 
Well, that is a bold statement mate. Considering our trading has largely covered our perceived greatest need and the draft appears to be lacking pacy mids or KPD’s around our pick range.

Deadset, if we get two players who become best 22 out of this rather strange draft, our recruiters are geniuses. I have more confidence that one or both of the Irish make it than I do if getting two “gems” in the draft.

I like a few players in our range (just how i rank them), all of which are different types.

Most interesting aspect for me, will Austin look at a player more developed body wise, or one that needs longer in terms of development
 

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These two Irish boys look good, i can remember Austin saying that one of them will play midfield.

It will be interesting, think Duffy is the one considered a mid prospect, while Monahan is a forward in his native game and have heard suggestion he will be given the chance there with us. Seems, a lot has changed from Irish automatically being consigned to a HBF.

Kudos to Geelong and Hawthorn for thinking outside the box positionally with the imports and moving the bar.

We have enough players to try to fit on back flanks already.

I think Duffy is the one that will play between the arcs, has Nash/Acres attributes

Monaghan looks a lively type, but needs time to learn forward patterns
 
Well, that is a bold statement mate. Considering our trading has largely covered our perceived greatest need and the draft appears to be lacking pacy mids or KPD’s around our pick range.

Deadset, if we get two players who become best 22 out of this rather strange draft, our recruiters are geniuses. I have more confidence that one or both of the Irish make it than I do if getting two “gems” in the draft.
Camon Thundering Gallop!!
Bring him home.
I feel it in my withers...a champion. Can we make it happen?
 
It will be interesting, think Duffy is the one considered a mid prospect, while Monahan is a forward in his native game and have heard suggestion he will be given the chance there with us. Seems, a lot has changed from Irish automatically being consigned to a HBF.

Kudos to Geelong and Hawthorn for thinking outside the box positionally with the imports and moving the bar.

We have enough players to try to fit on back flanks already.

Though Mullin from GFC was initiated off HB to get the feel of the game too - will be interesting where he graduates to on the paddock this season, or if the learnings continue from HBF.

Thought I read that he was also playing Gaelic footy back home in the off-season. That’s another change allowed from it be frowned upon previously, though granted due to missing finals.
 
Monahan; just go out and play…take marks, break tackles (make tackles, he’s a big boy) and kick snags.

Byrner started off up forward too IIRC.

Can't think of too many Irish boys that have a meaningful impact early on as a forward. Most start as defenders as it's the easiest way to learn the game
 
I think another question is what is our second 22 going to look like this year? Where is our depth and developing talent? How is our list profile looking?

Dow comes out of the midfield, he was probably the best midfielder in the VFL last season so that is a big one. Fisher comes off the list who is AFL quality. O'Brien comes off the list. Curnow, Honey, Philp and Plowman also come off the list. Philp was supposed to be a midfielder and Curnow is also midfield depth.

At a guess this will be our best 22. I don't like using best 22 because there are a lot of players who are interchangeable equals and it changes all the time but I think this is pretty close to the mark.

For the purpose of this it gives us a really good look at our list demographic.

B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Martin McKay Hollands
F: Fantasia Curnow Motlop
OB: DeKoning Walsh Cerra
IC: Silvagni Hewett Docherty Newman

Second 22.
Durdin Young Akuei
Cincotta Kemp Cowan
Cottrell Carroll Duffy
Cuningham Monohan Fogarty
Owies Lemmy Durdin
Pittonet Binns Kennedy
Mirkov O'Keefe Pick 22 Pick 28

Development: Durdin much more time in the middle. Monohan forward/mid. Cuningham and Fogarty onball spurts, especially Cuningham. Binns on the ball, stints forward. Lemmy stints in the ruck. Kemp middle?

Backline

Once again the backline is built, it looks really good. Durdin is highly rated at Carlton as a backup key defender. We know Young can come in and play a lock down role in defence. Cincotta and Cowan are elite two way running half backs at VFL level. We will all be hoping that they can both up their fitness and their game to be better two way players at AFL level but as small defender backup they are excellent. Kemp is a second and third tall defensive option who can also play a smaller role as well so we have excellent depth, quality and coverage over all positions here.

Midfield

Things run pretty thin in our midfield. Dow off the list makes a huge hole for our VFL side but also for our depth. A lot of focus will be on Hollands to step up. Question marks over Carroll who stalled in his development last season, we are going to need more out of him. Most of us believe Binns can play a wing role at AFL level is required but it appears he will be developing on the ball more in 2024. He's going to be quite raw in this role. Kennedy is good backup for Cripps and Hewett but not good backup for Walsh and Cerra. Cottrell is good backup for a half forward or wingman who goes down and is borderline best 22.

With both Camporeale boys coming to us next season and us being dangerously short on two way running onballers it only makes sense to see Binns develop in the middle. IMO we are our best 22 is short one two way running mid at least so this is a real weak area of our list. In the modern game it's not good to have 2 one way runners in the middle and we most likely will see 3 a lot of the time. This will be once again where our bog ordinary ball movement will again come from. Should Binns and Carroll step up then that will make a really big impact to our side next year.

We have a wealth of ruckmen. If we go with one ruck and one forward ruck next year, which IMO we should, we really do have huge depth here. Pittonet, TDK, O'Keefe, Mirkov as pure rucks and Young, Silvagni and Lemmy as second rucks. TDK also able to play the second ruck role.

Forwards

Small to medium forward depth is pretty good. Bit of talk over the quality of our small forwards in our best 22 not being great. I think it's better than what people think, I think the issue is our ball movement and inability to feed the forwards properly more so than the forwards lacking quality. We have a little bit of depth in talls but not overly massive. We can always send DeKoning forward and bring in one of our many rucks or Kemp comes in and McGovern goes forward so there are options here. Silvagni can also spend more time forward as well. So we aren't overly bad for tall forward depth. We do still have the ability to win with one tall forward which we have proven.

Verdict

Depth wise we seem ok in in most areas. I'm nervous about our onball depth. Cerra and Walsh being our only two two way runners on the ball, they get pushed pretty hard. Both have had hamstring issues. The pressure needs to come off them. The two way running onballer depth comes in the form of Binns and Carroll who are not really proven. IMO we need two way running onballer depth the most and we also need to take a one way runner out of the best 22 for a two way runner to improve. So there is a real need here. Ideally we need three or four two way running onballers in the best 22 along with at least two in the reserves. So we are a long way off at the moment in this department until we recruit them and develop them.

The pressure is on us list management wise. We are a mature side very close to being premiership quality but not quite there. Just the right player or two could tip the scales for us.

It's going to be really interesting who we chose in the draft. They will definitely be quick and have at least decent endurance. Likely to be a forward or an onball player or a bit of both.

Think end of next year if we have cap space as predicted we will be going hard at either a top two way running onballer as we did with Cerra and/or an elite half forward.
 
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I like a few players in our range (just how i rank them), all of which are different types.

Most interesting aspect for me, will Austin look at a player more developed body wise, or one that needs longer in terms of development
Surely best available prevails, regardless. I rate the potential of Zakostelsky, but realistically my thoughts don’t have the advantage of professional profiling. He certainly would be a three year development project to be an AFL ready key defender given his December birthday and late entry to the game. We don’t need a ruck, but there are four who should go in the first two rounds this year. In this day and age, with so many known requisites, it is strange for a non tall to be significantly under developed. Yet so many still seem to be. Do coaches and fitness gurus really hold their physical development back so much these days?

At the risk of being ageist, back in my day, teenagers were mostly much better developed by a generation of recreation being in the park and on sports grounds as opposed to being so much on game consoles and phones these days.

We have the luxury of taking the most suitable young talent for our needs. We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB). There is no guarantee that Binns gets games next year despite his stellar season in the VFL, such is our current depth. Hoping the kid gets games early for his sake, he has earned them. Realistically can’t leave Acres, Dutchy or Doc out for him, and Cotts has somewhat cemented his spot as well. Cowan is another who is likely to come on in leaps and bounds, yet struggle for senior time.

The thread about having a successful VFL team is going to be interesting. If our LTI bunch stays on the park with Lemmey, O’Keeffe, the Irish along with Moo and Binnsy we are going to be ultra competitive. The only real question will be the quality in our engine room post Dow and Ed. It probably won’t happen, but if our tall defenders stay fit, I would love Kempy to get a block of games in the middle with the reserves to test his suitability in there.
 
Do you mean that the draft is rigged or that we've intentionally chosen a player/players that no one above us in the draft could possibly want with their picks? I don't know which is scarier. o_O
Maybe some Dane Swan type of pick genius…pick# 58 but potential we’ll gamble on but not too high up the order.

Think it’s more whatever attribute/s we’re looking for I.e. speed, dash, skills, ball winning etc and we’re confident to develop said player for our need/role that they could fill.

Maybe it’s Lual. Simpson. Luke Lloyd. Hastie. Mannagh. 8 more days
 
Can't think of too many Irish boys that have a meaningful impact early on as a forward. Most start as defenders as it's the easiest way to learn the game
Did Jim Stynes play forward a bit early days? I think half back has long been seen as the development position for athletes. It would be good if we thought outside the box a bit. Austin referred to both of them as midfielders and Monohan as a midfielder who could also play forward.
 
Surely best available prevails, regardless. I rate the potential of Zakostelsky, but realistically my thoughts don’t have the advantage of professional profiling. He certainly would be a three year development project to be an AFL ready key defender given his December birthday and late entry to the game. We don’t need a ruck, but there are four who should go in the first two rounds this year. In this day and age, with so many known requisites, it is strange for a non tall to be significantly under developed. Yet so many still seem to be. Do coaches and fitness gurus really hold their physical development back so much these days?

At the risk of being ageist, back in my day, teenagers were mostly much better developed by a generation of recreation being in the park and on sports grounds as opposed to being so much on game consoles and phones these days.

We have the luxury of taking the most suitable young talent for our needs. We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB). There is no guarantee that Binns gets games next year despite his stellar season in the VFL, such is our current depth. Hoping the kid gets games early for his sake, he has earned them. Realistically can’t leave Acres, Dutchy or Doc out for him, and Cotts has somewhat cemented his spot as well. Cowan is another who is likely to come on in leaps and bounds, yet struggle for senior time.

The thread about having a successful VFL team is going to be interesting. If our LTI bunch stays on the park with Lemmey, O’Keeffe, the Irish along with Moo and Binnsy we are going to be ultra competitive. The only real question will be the quality in our engine room post Dow and Ed. It probably won’t happen, but if our tall defenders stay fit, I would love Kempy to get a block of games in the middle with the reserves to test his suitability in there.
Back in my day…best was always WAFL, SANFL senior footy (50-100 games) and then into the VFL/AFL.
Then you also had a 16/17yo Robert Harvey do his thing. Chris Grant 17yo.
Nathan Buckley (did it all in the SANFL in 1 season). Chris Judd (1 WAFL game with 5 goals).
^^All Brownlow Medallist’s BTW, or should have been winners.
Pathways and competitions are whole different nowadays.
 

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It will be interesting, think Duffy is the one considered a mid prospect, while Monahan is a forward in his native game and have heard suggestion he will be given the chance there with us. Seems, a lot has changed from Irish automatically being consigned to a HBF.

Kudos to Geelong and Hawthorn for thinking outside the box positionally with the imports and moving the bar.

We have enough players to try to fit on back flanks already.
This!

I think we started a thing with Kouta back in the day who was seen as an athlete more than a footballer by shifting him to half back to teach him the game. Then every athlete was by default played there.

There are a few things that I find strange about Irish recruitment. One is that there is not a lot more recruitment coming out of Ireland. The games are very similar. Most of those kids have played rugby union which has an oval ball and tackling. The last 20 years our game has become more like their game. 20 years ago we could not beat them in International rules, they out ran us and beat us with a possession game. Now we don't bother with it anymore because they can't get near us because our game has become ever increasingly a running and possession game. So you would think Irish players more than ever would suit our game. Our game in the last 2 season has in many ways been trying to become their game. Fast running, direct, run and carry with high speed ball movement with more risk.

Irish players tend to be great runners and quick which suites half back but also suites forward and onball, particularly now with a huge emphasis on being able to run both ways at speed and teams trying to run and move the ball really quickly. Surely some of the good Irish forwards would suite how half forward flank is played in our game as well as wing you would think.


Surely best available prevails, regardless. I rate the potential of Zakostelsky, but realistically my thoughts don’t have the advantage of professional profiling. He certainly would be a three year development project to be an AFL ready key defender given his December birthday and late entry to the game. We don’t need a ruck, but there are four who should go in the first two rounds this year. In this day and age, with so many known requisites, it is strange for a non tall to be significantly under developed. Yet so many still seem to be. Do coaches and fitness gurus really hold their physical development back so much these days?

At the risk of being ageist, back in my day, teenagers were mostly much better developed by a generation of recreation being in the park and on sports grounds as opposed to being so much on game consoles and phones these days.

We have the luxury of taking the most suitable young talent for our needs. We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB). There is no guarantee that Binns gets games next year despite his stellar season in the VFL, such is our current depth. Hoping the kid gets games early for his sake, he has earned them. Realistically can’t leave Acres, Dutchy or Doc out for him, and Cotts has somewhat cemented his spot as well. Cowan is another who is likely to come on in leaps and bounds, yet struggle for senior time.

The thread about having a successful VFL team is going to be interesting. If our LTI bunch stays on the park with Lemmey, O’Keeffe, the Irish along with Moo and Binnsy we are going to be ultra competitive. The only real question will be the quality in our engine room post Dow and Ed. It probably won’t happen, but if our tall defenders stay fit, I would love Kempy to get a block of games in the middle with the reserves to test his suitability in there.

Wrote something about how hard it is for young players to make it in the AFL compared to 20 odd years ago a while back. It's because of the increased running requirements because of how teams defend then transition to attack. 20 years ago a youngster could and would focus on weights and getting their body bigger and stronger. Now it's about getting your running capacity up. The distance and the speed needed to cover that distance was nothing 20 years ago compared to what it is now. It has even increased in the last 3 years.

AFL clubs want their draftees to come in and be able to do the running. They want to be able to do match sim and have the young players able to get to position.

So young players are focused more on running than strength and size. Kids come into the AFL system and the requirements to run 10-15km per game and at high speed and build your strength and body up results in an insane training regime. A lot of young players end up spending a lot of time injured in their first 4 years because trying to achieve this level of running ability and also trying to get bigger and stronger is really bad for the body of someone that age.

An AFL side won't look at you if you can't run well enough to be a part of the team's team defence. They might look at you if you can run defensively but not offensively but ideally they want you running both ways. A good example of this was Stocker, round 23 2022. Big strong body who could play football but could not do the running and was benched for a lot of that game which you rarely see in modern footy. Would have been a great player in the 90s.

Jaxon Binns 20 years ago would have a bigger heavier frame and a more weights focused training regime. Would not have the running ability but it would not matter as the game was more positional and the running requirement was not what it is now.

Then the anti-congestion rules came in a few years ago. Teams move the ball quicker. That means the speed in which players are being asked to run up and back is quicker. So the emphasis is on endurance and speed even more so.

I think it's more about how the game has changed rather than how young people have changed habits. That has changed how they are trained and how they are prepared before heading to their AFL clubs.
 
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Surely best available prevails, regardless. I rate the potential of Zakostelsky, but realistically my thoughts don’t have the advantage of professional profiling. He certainly would be a three year development project to be an AFL ready key defender given his December birthday and late entry to the game. We don’t need a ruck, but there are four who should go in the first two rounds this year. In this day and age, with so many known requisites, it is strange for a non tall to be significantly under developed. Yet so many still seem to be. Do coaches and fitness gurus really hold their physical development back so much these days?

At the risk of being ageist, back in my day, teenagers were mostly much better developed by a generation of recreation being in the park and on sports grounds as opposed to being so much on game consoles and phones these days.

We have the luxury of taking the most suitable young talent for our needs. We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB). There is no guarantee that Binns gets games next year despite his stellar season in the VFL, such is our current depth. Hoping the kid gets games early for his sake, he has earned them. Realistically can’t leave Acres, Dutchy or Doc out for him, and Cotts has somewhat cemented his spot as well. Cowan is another who is likely to come on in leaps and bounds, yet struggle for senior time.

The thread about having a successful VFL team is going to be interesting. If our LTI bunch stays on the park with Lemmey, O’Keeffe, the Irish along with Moo and Binnsy we are going to be ultra competitive. The only real question will be the quality in our engine room post Dow and Ed. It probably won’t happen, but if our tall defenders stay fit, I would love Kempy to get a block of games in the middle with the reserves to test his suitability in there.
“We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB).”

There’s always exceptions e.g. OHollands
 
I have more confidence that one or both of the Irish make it than I do of getting two “gems” in the draft.

I get the question marks on the draft.

But surely the 30th best kid in Aus is a better prospect than an athlete from another country... Shirley?
 
“We don’t need immediate impact from any draftee. The year of Jaxon Binns certainly displays that fact. Not so long ago, someone displaying his potential would be fast tracked in to the top team (this backfired dramatically with Dow and LOB).”

There’s always exceptions e.g. OHollands

I actually think that first statement has it backwards. Not necessarily an issue that LOB and Dow got games early, the issue was the team that they got games in. Good teams have for years shown a willingness to develop talent in the VFL, however, they have also shown an ability to fastrack youngsters into the side and for them to fit in seamlessly.

The way Hollands played this year is not just a reflection of his readiness but also the maturity of the team to protect him and allow him to play his role. If Dow and LOB were drafted now the story might be different. I personally think Binns would have been fine if he played but it's also not bad that he didn't.
 
Tew Jiath reminds me of Newman a little. Long arms getting that spoil in.

Lot of defensive craft to learn but I like how good he is at the unsexy stuff

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These two Irish boys look good, i can remember Austin saying that one of them will play midfield.

Austin said both would "add to our midfield depth". Now you can interpret it as they'll play mid. Or you can interpret it as they'll play elsewhere predominantly but potentially run through the middle at times.

I suspect the latter.

Monahan is more forward half. I think he has scope to be a similar type to Eli Hollands.

Duffy more likely to be defensive half or even wing. He's a bit taller at 194cm, but runs all day, so you could develop him in either the Marchbank/Kemp or Acres roles depending on how he goes over the next few years.
 
I get the question marks on the draft.

But surely the 30th best kid in Aus is a better prospect than an athlete from another country... Shirley?
Do I have to put a bold emphasis on the word two? Not saying we won’t find some quality with one or even both. With our current list, it will take some very high quality kids to push their way in.to the top team.

Also some consideration to what is available against list “holes”. Around our picks the “best players” will probably be project rucks. Austin and team for mine, have not picked any duds, and I don’t expect them to. IMO we have a “premiership list” so picking players to earn their way in is going to be an onerous exercise.

Then the fact that we have head hunted the Irish with a very well researched and targeted raid. Think this was well researched and planned. It was more a strategic commitment than an optimistic exercise. We were not waiting for a pick in the Irish draft, we cherry-picked some seriously talented and focussed players.
 
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I suspect we will go best available given that we could do with players in most positions.

Defence
As noted by some we lack key defender quality behind Weiters given Youngs fall-off last season, but any quality key defender will either be gone by our picks or a project player, still a good project KD would be a quality investment. We have decent crop of third tall defensive types but with McGovern and Marchbank's injury history and age you could even argue for this. Small defenders likewise, well set but the best of them - Newman, Docherty, Saad, Wiulliams are 29-30. Still Boyd Cincotta & Cowan are a decent set of understudies and many mids can be stationed on a back flank effectively, so not as I see it a particular need.

Forward
Up forward we obviously have the 2 pillars who are top class and youngish. A third tall, or forward-ruck would be of value but TDK might mature in that direction as may O'Keeffe or Lemmey. Unlikely that a quality option of this type is going to fall to us, but if one did you wouldn't say no. A "third tall" type forward would be handy, it is a type we lack beyond maybe JSOS or McGovern/Kemp if not needed down back. Alternatively, Kennedy can pinch hit in the role and relieve Cripps. Not a particular area of need but again if a good one slips to us you wouldn't say no. Small forwards are a bit of an issue. We lack a genuine crumber, unless Fantasia can keep fit, but even then at his age an understudy wouldn't be a bad idea. Likewise we lack a small jack-in-the-box type, unless maybe Elijah Hollands is tasked with that role so if a good one slipped you could justify going that way. On the other hand these roles can always be filled with extra mid options if you lack the specialist so I don't see them being an especial area of need.

Rucks
Always the question of how many and what type of rucks. They need development, Pitto is till only 27, TDK 24, I am bullish about young Hudson O'keeffe and even Lemmey shows something as a relief rucking option though not primary ruck. Mirkov if his health scare is overcome is a good project tap ruckman who may start to bear fruit but doesn't seem to offer much other than at the taps. An athletic ruck type with some forward nouse or key forward with relief ruck capacities would come in handy but again it is not as I see at a real area of need.

Mids
The mids - and by this I include any non-ruckman playing between the arcs - can be categorised a number of ways. There is the inside/outside/in-out trichotomy. There is the big/medium/small trichotomy. There is the offensive/defensive/2-way trichotomy. There is the endurance/burst/endurance-burst-hybrid trichotomy. There is the fast/slow/in-between pace trichotomy. Fair to say we are strong in the inside, big, offensive, burst, and slow types, but we have some pace on the outside, some excellent endurance and some 2-way run. Could do with more pace especially on the inside and more 2-way run but to some extent that can be met with what we have in house if we are prepared to lessen the number of slower, inside one-way types. If we are looking for a pure mid then I would be looking for an inside mid with pace - Harry De Mattia probably won't last to our first pick but I would love him to. Other than that 2-way run is clearly crucial in todays game and the more you have the better.

Given the above it seems to me that our needs are fairly widely spread and it is for this reason I would see us being likely to be happy to go "best available" rather than stretching for someone based on need - still if a quality genuinely tall key defender happened to slip to us that is where I would be looking first of all. The best will be gone before we get a look in but with luck who knows hopefully Dawson Zakostelsky or Schoemakers (the latter being a bit shorter admittedly) will be around. The lack of talls in the next couple of drafts will I think push up the stocks of this years talls.
 
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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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