Preview 2023 National Draft Preview Thread [currently: #2, #14 (PA), #19 (PP) #40, #52, #60]

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Went out and watched the last 2.5 quarters of Melb Grammar vs Wesley (bottom of table game between two winless teams).

Sanders kicked 4 in the time I was there playing in a full time on ball role. Was a really good day to watch him as there were strong winds all day and you could really get a gauge on his footskills - which as others have mentioned are absolutely elite. He kicked two on the run (one of which was a bomb from 55) and two from set shots - one from a big mark when the kick into F50 held up into the wind and he read it better than others.

I hadn't seen him play before so had no pre-conceptions. He really struck me as more an "outside" onballer - he doesn't possess the same rabid aggression for tackling and disrupting the contest as a C Oliver/Wardlaw/JHF. More seems to just read the game really well and get to the right spots time after time.

He also doesn't look to have a big change of pace - more just a continual workhorse up and down the field at a consistent cadence. More in the Dane Swan mold (who I think Souup has compared Will Phil to in the past - but he's taller than Will).

As well as looking like no chase Jase he did show a few of the same body language signs. Maybe it's because his team is so poor he seemingly expected every handball to be dished up to him and had more than a few arm outstretched moments when this didn't happen.

Personally as good as he surely is I did not walk away thinking he'd necessarily be a need for us but obviously he'd be gold for free.

Also I also became even more aware by comparison of what a unicorn Wardlaw is and how lucky we are to have him. If his hammies hold up he's an absolute generational player.
 
Makeshift Park said:
Mate I am no ITK but my spidey sense says at this point McKercher is very likely.
Did you see Sanders on Gettable?
Almost unprompted, the guy we're prelisting is there talking about how much the two compliment each other, and how he's hoping they end up on the same AFL list.
There was just something in that sequence that suggested to me he's got confidence that's the way things will pan out.
I suspect and hope we add one of the two talls you mentioned as our third pick, with a KPF from Port's pick.
Click to expand...
McKercher, Sanders and a tall, weather O’Sullivan, Curtin or Caddy is a good haul.

If we can’t win a premiership with: Clarkson/Ratts (coach), Thomas, LDU, Jy, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Scott, Zurhaar, Powell, Sanders, McKercher in the midfield, then we will never win a premiership.
Pres said:
Went out and watched the last 2.5 quarters of Melb Grammar vs Wesley (bottom of table game between two winless teams).

Sanders kicked 4 in the time I was there playing in a full time on ball role. Was a really good day to watch him as there were strong winds all day and you could really get a gauge on his footskills - which as others have mentioned are absolutely elite. He kicked two on the run (one of which was a bomb from 55) and two from set shots - one from a big mark when the kick into F50 held up into the wind and he read it better than others.

I hadn't seen him play before so had no pre-conceptions. He really struck me as more an "outside" onballer - he doesn't possess the same rabid aggression for tackling and disrupting the contest as a C Oliver/Wardlaw/JHF. More seems to just read the game really well and get to the right spots time after time.

He also doesn't look to have a big change of pace - more just a continual workhorse up and down the field at a consistent cadence. More in the Dane Swan mold (who I think Souup has compared Will Phil to in the past - but he's taller than Will).

As well as looking like no chase Jase he did show a few of the same body language signs. Maybe it's because his team is so poor he seemingly expected every handball to be dished up to him and had more than a few arm outstretched moments when this didn't happen.

Personally as good as he surely is I did not walk away thinking he'd necessarily be a need for us but obviously he'd be gold for free.

Also I also became even more aware by comparison of what a unicorn Wardlaw is and how lucky we are to have him. If his hammies hold up he's an absolute generational player.
Click to expand...
So if we were looking for inside/outside balanced mids, McSanders would be the perfect duo?
 
Harpergun said:
Do you mind knocking down the firewall please GR?
Click to expand...


How Harley becomes a Roo: the deal that would solve the pick-one dilemma​

By Jake Niall​

July 30, 2023 — 8.57am



For as long as it became probable that West Coast would finish on the bottom of the AFL ladder, there has been a debate about whether the Eagles should trade the rights to Harley Reid, the Bendigo teen viewed as a near-certain No.1 pick.

The case for trading the rights to pick one – assuming the Eagles retain that pole position – is based on two realities facing the competition’s most financially powerful club.

Vic Country star Harley Reid, the likely No.1 draft pick.

Vic Country star Harley Reid, the likely No.1 draft pick.Credit: Getty Images

The first is that Reid is known to prefer to remain in Victoria and arguably represents a flight risk, although his management and West Coast have denied to The Age that he has told the Eagles he doesn’t want to be drafted by them.

Regardless, this does not mean the Eagles should bow to that wish because they have a superb record of retaining out-of-state players. But it is a factor that will give them pause.

The more pertinent factor is the state of West Coast’s playing list and the need for the club to maximise their draft hand, as veterans such as Luke Shuey finish up. While the Eagles have regenerated quickly from their previous crashes, this rebuild shapes as more difficult; there are no easy priority picks, as in 2001 and 2008, and they have fewer quality players who will still be around for the renaissance.

The primary argument for trading the rights to Reid is that one early pick will not provide enough uplift for a team that is light-on for young talent, having missed the chance to trade out a couple of premiership players when they still had currency.

North Melbourne and West Coast were involved in an omnibus multi-club trade last year that resulted in North losing pick No.1 and Jason Horne-Francis but gaining picks two and three and another first rounder (GWS landed pick one). For the Eagles, pick two was turned into a pair of sorely needed first rounders.

Reid is worth even more than pick one last year and there will be more than a couple of clubs interested in giving up multiple first rounders – Melbourne and GWS holding early choices from Fremantle and Richmond respectively, are obvious candidates.


But there’s another club that should be in the market and which is eyeing off the possibility of landing Reid: North Melbourne.

​

The Kangaroos, who are Winx odds to hold pick No.2 at season’s end (regardless of the outcome of their match with West Coast on Sunday), can complete another swap with West Coast. It is much more feasible to give up pick one when you’re getting pick two back and have absolute certainty about who you can draft. Only Reid would be crossed off the list.

The price for trading pick one for pick two is not as exorbitant as giving up one for later choices. If Reid is as good as Chris Judd or Nick Daicos, then the price must be steep. Conversely, if he’s merely exceptional, rather than generational, it should not be too hard for North to find an additional first-round choice to hand the Eagles.

North hold Port Adelaide’s first rounder – pick 17, based on current ladder position – this year from the Horne-Francis and pick one mega-trade.

North also could well be armed with an extra draft choice for losing key defender Ben McKay, probably to Essendon, as a free agent; in the dream scenario, North would gain pick No.3 and at worst, they’ll gain an end-of-first-round if McKay walks.

North are asking for (more) special draft assistance from the AFL. But the McKay compensation could be the equivalent, making it easier for the Roos to strike a deal to land pick one and Reid.

It is much more feasible to give up pick one when you’re getting pick two back and have absolute certainty about who you can draft.
Click to expand...
To give up pick No.1, though, West Coast would need to know there’s a high-quality kid available at pick No.2. Ideally, that player would be a West Australian, too, following the same script of 2022, when the Eagles drafted local products Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett in the first round after turning pick two into multiple choices.

Daniel Curtin, a 195-centimetre key defender who can play midfield, shapes as the best of the west, having succeeded in the midfield in the national under-18s. Recruiters have Curtin and Tasmanian Colby McKercher among those vying for picks 2-5.

The decision on pick one hinges on a range of factors, not least of which is how the Eagles rate Reid compared with Curtin and others. They will be meeting with Reid and making a judgement on the risk/reward of drafting him versus trading the pick.

If pick one is usually sacrosanct, to give it up for pick two plus at least one first rounder is an easier sell.
 
Pres said:
Went out and watched the last 2.5 quarters of Melb Grammar vs Wesley (bottom of table game between two winless teams).

Sanders kicked 4 in the time I was there playing in a full time on ball role. Was a really good day to watch him as there were strong winds all day and you could really get a gauge on his footskills - which as others have mentioned are absolutely elite. He kicked two on the run (one of which was a bomb from 55) and two from set shots - one from a big mark when the kick into F50 held up into the wind and he read it better than others.

I hadn't seen him play before so had no pre-conceptions. He really struck me as more an "outside" onballer - he doesn't possess the same rabid aggression for tackling and disrupting the contest as a C Oliver/Wardlaw/JHF. More seems to just read the game really well and get to the right spots time after time.

He also doesn't look to have a big change of pace - more just a continual workhorse up and down the field at a consistent cadence. More in the Dane Swan mold (who I think Souup has compared Will Phil to in the past - but he's taller than Will).

As well as looking like no chase Jase he did show a few of the same body language signs. Maybe it's because his team is so poor he seemingly expected every handball to be dished up to him and had more than a few arm outstretched moments when this didn't happen.

Personally as good as he surely is I did not walk away thinking he'd necessarily be a need for us but obviously he'd be gold for free.

Also I also became even more aware by comparison of what a unicorn Wardlaw is and how lucky we are to have him. If his hammies hold up he's an absolute generational player.
Click to expand...

Dane Swan is actually a really good comp for Sanders.
 
giantroo said:

How Harley becomes a Roo: the deal that would solve the pick-one dilemma​

By Jake Niall​

July 30, 2023 — 8.57am



For as long as it became probable that West Coast would finish on the bottom of the AFL ladder, there has been a debate about whether the Eagles should trade the rights to Harley Reid, the Bendigo teen viewed as a near-certain No.1 pick.

The case for trading the rights to pick one – assuming the Eagles retain that pole position – is based on two realities facing the competition’s most financially powerful club.

Vic Country star Harley Reid, the likely No.1 draft pick.

Vic Country star Harley Reid, the likely No.1 draft pick.Credit: Getty Images

The first is that Reid is known to prefer to remain in Victoria and arguably represents a flight risk, although his management and West Coast have denied to The Age that he has told the Eagles he doesn’t want to be drafted by them.

Regardless, this does not mean the Eagles should bow to that wish because they have a superb record of retaining out-of-state players. But it is a factor that will give them pause.

The more pertinent factor is the state of West Coast’s playing list and the need for the club to maximise their draft hand, as veterans such as Luke Shuey finish up. While the Eagles have regenerated quickly from their previous crashes, this rebuild shapes as more difficult; there are no easy priority picks, as in 2001 and 2008, and they have fewer quality players who will still be around for the renaissance.

The primary argument for trading the rights to Reid is that one early pick will not provide enough uplift for a team that is light-on for young talent, having missed the chance to trade out a couple of premiership players when they still had currency.

North Melbourne and West Coast were involved in an omnibus multi-club trade last year that resulted in North losing pick No.1 and Jason Horne-Francis but gaining picks two and three and another first rounder (GWS landed pick one). For the Eagles, pick two was turned into a pair of sorely needed first rounders.

Reid is worth even more than pick one last year and there will be more than a couple of clubs interested in giving up multiple first rounders – Melbourne and GWS holding early choices from Fremantle and Richmond respectively, are obvious candidates.


But there’s another club that should be in the market and which is eyeing off the possibility of landing Reid: North Melbourne.

​

The Kangaroos, who are Winx odds to hold pick No.2 at season’s end (regardless of the outcome of their match with West Coast on Sunday), can complete another swap with West Coast. It is much more feasible to give up pick one when you’re getting pick two back and have absolute certainty about who you can draft. Only Reid would be crossed off the list.

The price for trading pick one for pick two is not as exorbitant as giving up one for later choices. If Reid is as good as Chris Judd or Nick Daicos, then the price must be steep. Conversely, if he’s merely exceptional, rather than generational, it should not be too hard for North to find an additional first-round choice to hand the Eagles.

North hold Port Adelaide’s first rounder – pick 17, based on current ladder position – this year from the Horne-Francis and pick one mega-trade.

North also could well be armed with an extra draft choice for losing key defender Ben McKay, probably to Essendon, as a free agent; in the dream scenario, North would gain pick No.3 and at worst, they’ll gain an end-of-first-round if McKay walks.

North are asking for (more) special draft assistance from the AFL. But the McKay compensation could be the equivalent, making it easier for the Roos to strike a deal to land pick one and Reid.


To give up pick No.1, though, West Coast would need to know there’s a high-quality kid available at pick No.2. Ideally, that player would be a West Australian, too, following the same script of 2022, when the Eagles drafted local products Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett in the first round after turning pick two into multiple choices.

Daniel Curtin, a 195-centimetre key defender who can play midfield, shapes as the best of the west, having succeeded in the midfield in the national under-18s. Recruiters have Curtin and Tasmanian Colby McKercher among those vying for picks 2-5.

The decision on pick one hinges on a range of factors, not least of which is how the Eagles rate Reid compared with Curtin and others. They will be meeting with Reid and making a judgement on the risk/reward of drafting him versus trading the pick.

If pick one is usually sacrosanct, to give it up for pick two plus at least one first rounder is an easier sell.
Click to expand...
The article kind of avoids making any sort of point or adding insight to a potential trade.
 
Port pick could be Archer Reid or Ollie Murphy depending where it sits so I'd rather keep the Port pick unless we have to bid on Sanders.
I would be open to trading our future 1st (likely still bottom 3) for a top 5 pick this year and another late 1st or future 1st if next years draft is heavy on midfielders. I guess they'd have to weigh up the top 5 talent this year vs next year.
 
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giantroo said:
Click to expand...

Just how "generational" is THIS "generational" talent??? Yeah he's very impactful at junior level but somehow I don't see it translating directly to AFL level the way Sheezel, Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Rowell, Walsh etc have. If we end up with 2,3 ports pick and Sanders, I'm now of the view we don't trade with WCE. With 2 I'd bid on Walters, and be happy enough picking up Curtain, Watson, or McKercher at 2 and 3. We also have Brayden George from last year coming in, and take best available at Port's pick (is there another injury interrupted slider like George?). Balls in WCE court. Of course they might wan't Curtain and trade out pick 1 with someone else.
 
Next season;
OUT - Lachie Young
IN - Daniel Curtin
 
Souup said:
That last ~1 minute was absolutely horrendous.

There is no excuse in giving up that many uncontested marks in that scenario.

Our list is full of players who are as dumb as dogshit from a footy IQ perspective.

Even if we had of won it would have been wallpaper over cracks. 22 to 17 scoring shots, they were better most of the game.
Click to expand...
Give me hope Souup on players that have plenty that we will actually draft
 
krakouers said:
Give me hope Souup on players that have plenty that we will actually draft
Click to expand...

For a start, Sanders has the best footy IQ and foot-skills in this draft so hopefully he's at the club next year.

Watson and Mckercher would bring footy smarts and skills too - for me, picking them at #2 and #3 seems obvious, but it seems we're pretty keen on trading for Reid.
 
 
Souup said:
For a start, Sanders has the best footy IQ and foot-skills in this draft so hopefully he's at the club next year.

Watson and Mckercher would bring footy smarts and skills too - for me, picking them at #2 and #3 seems obvious, but it seems we're pretty keen on trading for Reid.
Click to expand...
Love your work Souup, always have.

Surely we have to make something happen to get O'Sullivan or another top quality defender that we can put some work into.

What are we going to do with all these mids? It's getting very crowded in there.
 
Full Chooks said:
Love your work Souup, always have.

Surely we have to make something happen to get O'Sullivan or another top quality defender that we can put some work into.

What are we going to do with all these mids? It's getting very crowded in there.
Click to expand...

No idea mate, it's only going to get more crowded with Sanders and Mckercher, plus potentially Reid.

I've said before that I think we need to settle on our best 5 to rotate through there and at this stage I think that's LDU, Wardlaw, Phillips, TT and Simpkin, in that order for me. The problem is last 2 of the 5 need to be impactful players in other positions - I think Simpkin + TT can do that, particularly TT - I reckon he'd be excellent in any third of the ground. Simpkin worries me a bit with his lack of polish by foot if you want him in the front half, but I do like his defensive endeavour, contested work and ability to find space in tight.

But then throw in Sanders, Mckercher and potentially Reid and you start to bump guys out of the midfield and into more full time forwards. I also still believe in Powell but he's going to struggle to get a look in after this pre-season.

I've got two guys who I'd be looking at trading out to try fill other list needs but I won't mention their names for fear of getting run out of town :laughing:
 
Souup said:
I've got two guys who I'd be looking at trading to try fill other list needs but I won't mention their names for fear of getting run out of town :laughing:
Click to expand...
Open to your thoughts on who we should, we need collateral and I do think a shake up trade or two may need to happen
 
Full Chooks said:
Love your work Souup, always have.

Surely we have to make something happen to get O'Sullivan or another top quality defender that we can put some work into.

What are we going to do with all these mids? It's getting very crowded in there.
Click to expand...
Our mids aren’t very good though.

LDU & George locked in.

Personally think Thomas has not deserved any midfield time, does nothing with it, better as a forward while he isn’t fit.

Phillips is 50/50 - reckon he can become a Libba type, but long way to go, want to see him persisted with for a block of games.

Powelly needs to get his body right first, has lost a bit of speed and tank because of it.

Simpkin has been very down this season, stinks of Trengove a bit, needs to reach out to someone like Trent Cotchin to see how he reinvented himself as a captain. Seems to only want to play as a centre square mid - recall him not being a fan of Noble moving him to a wing. Don’t think he tracks back defensively enough for a guy who clearly has the tank to do so, and obviously not the best kick under pressure.

And Sheez is a forward.

When you look at McKercher & Sanders - Sanders would be free in this case, you take that any day of the week. McKercher is the exact perfect profile we lack in the side, elite runner, runs like the wind, and repeat efforts. Has a bit of arrogance and is very competitive.
 
hoffseason gains said:
Our mids aren’t very good though.
...
Click to expand...

Love your work generally but disagree hard with this which I've seen repeated around here often.

We're equal 7th with Collingwood for clearance differential per game this year. Look at legitimately any other stat and we're either 17th or 18th and there's a chasm between us and 16th; this is the one stat that we are very good in which reflects well on the midfield. In addition to this, guys like LDU, Wardlaw, Phillips and Simpkin have missed more games than we'd like and they're key players in the midfield for us who have helped us to 7th in this stat - if we got a little luckier with health, we'd be pushing top 4 for clearances which is ridiculous to think.

We're fine for midfielders - I think our most pressing needs are key defenders, back flankers, small forwards and some wingers.

The sooner we get guys like Taylor, Stephenson, Tucker, McDonald and Young out of our best 22 the better, and none of these guys are playing midfield (apart from Tucker today which I thought was an issue).
 
krakouers said:
Open to your thoughts on who we should, we need collateral and I do think a shake up trade or two may need to happen
Click to expand...

I'd be looking at suitors for TT and Powell.

The draft this year is shallow for midfielders and you won't find a better time to trade either of these guys - if we're going to do it, it needs to be now. I'd take a high end first rounder for TT (Gold Coast...) and a mid-late 1st for Powell.

Adelaide are crying out for midfield talent and Powell makes perfect sense.

The other thing to note is while people can't believe the suggestion of trading TT and/or Powell, they have currency - I really like and rate both of them, but if you want to get something you need to give something. Fans are crying out for change but if you want change, you need to be willing to part with some quality in order to address glaring holes in the list.
 
Last edited:
Souup said:
Love your work generally but disagree hard with this which I've seen repeated around here often.

We're equal 7th with Collingwood for clearance differential per game this year. Look at legitimately any other stat and we're either 17th or 18th and there's a chasm between us and 16th; this is the one stat that we are very good in which reflects well on the midfield.

We're fine for midfielders - I think our most pressing needs are key defenders, back flankers, small forwards and some wingers.

The sooner we get guys like Taylor, Stephenson, Tucker, McDonald and Young out of our best 22 the better, and none of these guys are playing midfield (apart from Tucker today which I thought was an issue).
Click to expand...
Yeah haha slight overreaction. Tend to do so after games like that. The problem is I see that we can be good. I genuinely do.

But there are fundamental problems with our team. Clearances are great and mean so much, my obvious biggest worry with our midfield is their ability to spread, work defensively and their general uncontested games.

Our defence is the worst defence I’ve ever seen in my life watching AFL in terms of being able to transition and move the ball. And our forward line is the worst forward line at retaining the ball inside 50 and applying pressure.

we just need players all over who can run and can kick, as simple as that seems to be.
 
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