Preview 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Sat 23rd Sept 5.15PM @ Gabba

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TEAM IS IN …


IN: Jordan Boyd, Jack Martin, Harry McKay

OUT: David Cuningham, Brodie Kemp, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies








Backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringAdam Saad
Half-backs:Caleb MarchbankMitch McGovernNic Newman
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsOllie Hollands
Half-forwards:Tom De KoningHarry McKaySam Docherty
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowJesse Motlop
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Jordan BoydMatthew CottrellGeorge Hewett
Jack Martin
Emergencies:David CuninghamBrodie KempMatthew Kennedy
Matthew Owies
 
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Both Brisbane and Sydney airports have curfews so can’t both be on Saturday but it is bizarre we aren’t playing Friday night though very happy about it


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Its helps the Pies mostly.

GWS have less time to recover/regroup.

Pies get the extra day off before the GF (if they win).
 
Talk about selective use of stats.

How about 2 goal assists each.
Score involvements Fog 7 (equal most for Carlton) to Kennedy 5.
Effective disposals Fog 9 (64%) to Kennedy 6 (46%).
They aren't playing the same role.

Bam Bam will be much better for the hit out but with JM an obvious starter, is there a spot for Kennedy?

Surely no one suggests he replaces Hewett?

Or does he replace Cuningham?
 

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Games at the Gabba, Brisbane's kicking aside, Saints were in the game early into Q4, lost by 12.

View attachment 1806004

Against the Crows (GABBA), they snuck home by 6 points:

View attachment 1806006

They lost to Freo by 3 in Perth, a week earlier Gold Coast (home) smashed them.

They beat Geelong by 11 (at home), hardly convincingly:

View attachment 1806008



The fortress thing is BS.
For those of you who have heard me say it before, I apologise in advance.

But I’ve seen three games at the Gabba this year, v Gold Coast, Geelong, and Adelaide.

Gold Coast couldn’t win a clearance for love or money. Rowell got completely towelled up on the inside. But Mac Andrew and Levi played pretty well. They lost in the end, but we’re close enough into the last quarter that it was conceivable they could win.

Geelong got blown out of the water a bit in the first quarter. The second and third quarters devolved into some sort of arm wrestle. Then Geelong came back hard in the last. Brisbane were hanging on at the end.

Adelaide really should have won. They were in it up to their eyeballs. Brisbane started to panic. And if Tilthorpe (I think) could have hit Tex from about 15 metres, then the Crows would have had a shot from about 20 out directly in front to level the game. I’m still not sure how a talented player missed that kick.

The Gabba is a fortress. But the fans are scarred. They’ve seen their side lose matches they were expected to win, and from positions they shouldn’t have been beaten. Nerves can come into the air very quickly. Even a Lions supporting friend who went to the Gabba for the Port Adelaide final said you could have heard a pin drop when the Power hit the front in the second quarter.

There will be plenty of pressure on the Lions, and their crowd will fall off quickly if we can exert some scoreboard pressure. If we let them get on top, they will be classic front runners.
 

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For those of you who have heard me say it before, I apologise in advance.

But I’ve seen three games at the Gabba this year, v Gold Coast, Geelong, and Adelaide.

Gold Coast couldn’t win a clearance for love or money. Rowell got completely towelled up on the inside. But Mac Andrew and Levi played pretty well. They lost in the end, but we’re close enough into the last quarter that it was conceivable they could win.

Geelong got blown out of the water a bit in the first quarter. The second and third quarters devolved into some sort of arm wrestle. Then Geelong came back hard in the last. Brisbane were hanging on at the end.

Adelaide really should have won. They were in it up to their eyeballs. Brisbane started to panic. And if Tilthorpe (I think) could have hit Tex from about 15 metres, then the Crows would have had a shot from about 20 out directly in front to level the game. I’m still not sure how a talented player missed that kick.

The Gabba is a fortress. But the fans are scarred. They’ve seen their side lose matches they were expected to win, and from positions they shouldn’t have been beaten. Nerves can come into the air very quickly. Even a Lions supporting friend who went to the Gabba for the Port Adelaide final said you could have heard a pin drop when the Power hit the front in the second quarter.

There will be plenty of pressure on the Lions, and their crowd will fall off quickly if we can exert some scoreboard pressure. If we let them get on top, they will be classic front runners.
let me show you how I was feeling sitting in the cricketer's arms a couple of hours before our pf game in 1999:

cartoon-of-man-walking-on-his-own-execution-RA7KHC.jpg
 
Talk about selective use of stats.

How about 2 goal assists each.
Score involvements Fog 7 (equal most for Carlton) to Kennedy 5.
Effective disposals Fog 9 (64%) to Kennedy 6 (46%).
Actually strengthens the argument that they are close in out put - Fog also had 12 uncontested to Kennedy 6.
Disposal efficiency is void when u throw in the clangers. Fog also had a horrible turnover that 80% of the time ends up with opposition goal.
 
Further to the Lions’ so called fortress. They only played four top 8 sides at home during regular season. They knocked off Melbourne and Collingwood early in the season (they always beat Collingwood). And they got St Kilda in the last round when there was little hanging on the result (and the Saints rested some players).

Don’t get me wrong. They’re difficult to beat at the Gabba. But I refuse to believe they are impossible to beat at the Gabba.

As our old friend Thylacine has alluded above, this game has the feel of the 1999 preliminary about it. We can do this.
 
Would be finished hours before the game, shouldn't be too much of an issue?
plenty would probably stay on? put on some entertainment like a woman shrieking into a mic leading the crowd in a sweet caroline singalong?
 
Will be a tough gig up there at the Gabba, but what have we got to lose (other than a prelim)?

If we get the game on our terms (arm-wrestle/not free flowing), we are a chance, but that is easier said than done.

Their outside run and variety of goal scoring forwards worries me - we can't allow easy/multiple entries into their forward line, no matter how good our back line has been.

Harry and Jack M are great inclusions, as they add so much to our structure.

The midfield will, as always, be the key. Our rucks, Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Hewett v Big Mac, Neil, Dunkley, McLuggage.

Getting off to a good start will unsettle them. If we can take the crowd out of it, and make it a dour, defensive game, their self-doubts will creep in.

If it comes down to the wire, all of our close games over the last 18 months will hold us in good stead. Drawing on the experiences of those nail biting wins/losses in front of 90,000 people can only help. Particularly when we have won so many close ones in the last 6 weeks.

Go blues!
 
D7: Weitering, McGovern, Kemp, Saad, Newman, Docherty, Boyd

M8: Pittonet, DeKoning, Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Hewett, Acres, Hollands

F7: Curnow, McKay, Martin, Owies, Motlop, Fogarty, Cottrell

Sub: Kennedy

Out: Cincotta, Marchbank, Cuningham
 
Pressure around the middle is a must!
Cannot allow them un pressured entries or things might get a bit rough.
If we bring massive heat, then we will be in this right up to our eyeballs!
we know this team will leave everything out there - they have to look their coach in the face after the game, there is no alternative....
 
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