Preview 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Sat 23rd Sept 5.15PM @ Gabba

[Aphrodite]

TEAM IS IN …


IN: Jordan Boyd, Jack Martin

19

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

, Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

27

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

OUT: David Cuningham, Brodie Kemp, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies

AFL team selection: Four changes for preliminary final

Carlton has named its team for the preliminary final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Alex Cincotta	Jacob Weitering	Adam Saad
Half-backs:	Caleb Marchbank	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Ollie Hollands
Half-forwards:	Tom De Koning	Harry McKay	Sam Docherty
Forwards:	Lachie Fogarty	Charlie Curnow	Jesse Motlop
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	Adam Cerra	Sam Walsh
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Matthew Cottrell	George Hewett
	Jack Martin
Emergencies:	David Cuningham	Brodie Kemp	Matthew Kennedy
	Matthew Owies

 

[gbatman]

Brisbane defensive set up is very very good for a rushed or sideways kick - there was an amazing clip of them doing it against us last time - it’s pretty much a guaranteed score for them.
You can absolutely punish them if the outlet is a quick/smart runner receiving hands- taking 15m and hitting a 45-50 pass to a hard working wing (who’s held shape) & we have a few of those .
You blow straight over/through the press if you’re willing to take the game on & you’re off to the races.
Kennedy is a brilliant option (ridiculously strong over head & gives no *s about sitting under the ball & the pressure coming at him) around centre/HF & a penetrating kick to hit up a forward working back.
We can carve them up if we look for it & brave enough to hit the outlet & the one back to the corridor.

I am hoping it goes this way. Think this could be a big opportunity for Hollands. He was brilliant when he came on. To me he looks a finals player. He plays high speed high intensity which is finals footy. Finals footy is not about big bodies bashing and crashing and being big tough and strong. It's about the intensity you play at and how hard you are willing to compete and to me that is him.

We need Saad to get off the chan. We don't have any other rebounding half backs who will take the game on at the moment so it's Saad or bust. Unless we send Docherty back or bring in Fisher who is far better with ball in hand than Docherty. We have massive problems there, our rebound is not good enough to get around the press/zone so we aren't connecting with our forward from defence. Our ball movement has been crap.

That kind of run, you need guys like Dow, Fisher, Saad etc. They are the ones who can run the ball 5-15m and then release a really good kick to players in space and find those one on ones. Our team selection for finals has taken this quality out of our team. Which frustrates me because it was this run and carry and getting the ball to the back of the zone which unleashed our forwards and got us into finals in the first place.

We beat Melbourne last week because they kicked horribly for goal. It was luck.
We beat Sydney the week before because they kicked horribly for goal. It was also luck.
We have won two finals not on the merit in which we have played but because of luck.
We have reverted back to the slow ugly footy that saw us miss finals last year and nearly miss this year.
We are not playing the brand of footy or structuring the side which got us here.
We should have lost both finals comfortably but we had luck on our side, we got through not because we played better but because of opposition mistakes.

We beat a better Melbourne side that included Brayshaw a month earlier with Dow and Docherty on the ball generating run out of stoppages. Fisher and Saad at half back generating the kind of run you mentioned. Hollands generating run and real gut run on the wing and we didn't need them to kick poorly. We out played them all over the field. Last friday they out played us all over the field. we held them, they kicked horrible for goal and we won on the last play of the day which, ironically was generated from run! Hollands runs hard into space, Docherty runs hard forward, Acres and McGovern run hard to get to the goal square to be there. And we only got back into the game because we were getting the ball in the hands of Saad and Walsh who were running and carrying the ball and putting offensive pressure on Melbourne.

I just wonder whether when it has come to selecting the team, whether or not we have choked a little. Not trusting the players who played huge parts in getting us here. We hit finals and all of a sudden Fisher, Dow, Hollands are out of the side for taller and slower players and all of a sudden we don't carry the ball away from stoppage and our ball movement from defence is rubbish again. We can no longer get around or over the press.

If you can't run with the footy and carry it you have no hope of getting the ball over or around the press and that means no hope of getting the ball to your forwards in space.

We must fix the team or we lose. If we don't have better run and carry this week we lose.

Brisbane kicked 19.9 last week. They aren't going to kick 9.14 (Sydney) and 9.17 (Melbourne).

Fact of the matter is. Finals have come and we have removed most of the good runners from our team. We should have lost both our finals comfortably. This is an opportunity for the coaching group to realise this, identify this but get another opportunity to fix it.

It was run and carry and daring play that got us here and that is what we have taken out of the team. It's that that will progress us past the Preliminary final.

We started scoring because we started to go around and over the oppositions press and that is how we had our winning streak. WE did this by running with the footy and kicking if long and direct and playing more direct footy.

Lions are well coached. We need to do our homework. We will have to be good with our forward positioning. Modern game, forwards need to be selfless and make sure the defenders are held accountable which last season we were terrible at. This year we are better.

What you said about blowing over the press is 100% spot on. You go into the middle, you can go around the press. You run with the footy, all of a sudden you are in range to kick over the press and get it our the back. Our last two games we have gone into the press over and over again.

GWS did it to Port last night. Brisbane did it to Port the week before. Top of the ladder Collingwood have been doing it all season. WE changed our game plan and team make up and started doing it and we won a heap of games in a row and made finals because we were playing this way and selecting the team this way. Now in finals we have gone back to our old ways. A bigger, taller, heavier team that does not run and carry and get the ball into the middle and avoid the opposition's defensive clusters.

Only one rebounding defender. No Dow. No Docherty in the middle. Not much Hollands. No Boyd. No Fisher. No run. And no run this week means we lose.

McKay, Martin are good ins. If we don't have that extra player to run the ball out of stoppages, if we don't have that extra player to run the ball off half back. That means they go to waste as we do not connect with our forwards. We do no go inside 50 with space inside 50 we do not go over or around the zone and we do not kick a good score, just going forward and having it rebounded. Bombing into big clusters of players up the wing and having it rebounded. Need to run the ball this week.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Can't forget where we are coming from.

Carlton have been probably the worst team in the competition this century. Since 2000 we have played just 6 finals series. Been Bottom four 9 times and won five wooden spoons. Prior to last Friday night Carlton have not won two finals in a season since 1999 and that nearly didn't happen as we only beat Essendon by a point that year. Prior to that it was 1995 that we had won more than two finals. This will be the first time Carlton have progressed to a preliminary final in 23 years.

We finished the 90s the most successful AFL club of all time with more premierships than anyone else. A superior win loss record over all other teams bar Port Adelaide. And a history of regular premiership success. Back then we had a team we really believed in. We had never won a wooden spoon and didn't know anything other than success.

It has been a long long time since we have tasted any form of success. They younger generation of supporters, many have only ever followed a Carlton who has been mediocre at best.

The current crop of players have the opportunity for a 23 year comeback. 28 year comeback from ultimate success. They have the opportunity to to turn things around.

We are the underdogs. This game, beating Brisbane at the Gabba is probably a harder game than what the Grand final will be. This will be the biggest challenge in football this year.

Should we win this we very very likely go all the way.

We may not have finished top 4 in the H/A season but we are top 4 now which means we are more than deserving and good enough for this.

There will be hoards of young fans watching who have never seen Carlton play at this time of the year.

There are a lot of sides like Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood. Even some of the Melbourne players showed signs of taking it for granted Friday night. They play finals every second year it seems. The last 23 years for us, were starved, we have to be that little bit more hungry than most.

I have posted this before. I spoke with Chris Judd in 2011. He said "Coaches get a club to the last 2 weeks, a high 50+% of players play in 1 prelim in their careers but only around 10% play in a premiership, so from prelim week, it is up to the playing group, AND YOU MUST NEVER ASSUME YOU GET ANOTHER CHANCE, because the stats say you won't
(Paraphrasing, but that was basically what he said)

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I think Voss has given up (for now) on trying to improve the speed of the backline. Instead he makes sure no one gets out the back with structure. He concedes high and wide entries rather than have Weiters sucked up the ground and risk deep entries or out the back goals.

As a result as much as I want Boyd to play he will not even be in the frame.

Yet I think letting Daniher roam on the 50 arc on his own is a disaster and so we have a big problem this week.

I think our secondary talls (Marchy and Kemp) are in erratic (at best) form and are def our biggest weakness right now. Kemp was awful on Friday night. No other word for it. His positioning was terrible. He’s not body checking his man at all. Lost his man so many times. He’s staying in but he’s a big problem right now. One that’s not solved by Marchy. Marchy and Kemp cannot cover for Weiters on Daniher uo the ground. So weiters has to stay wi the him. Which then really exposes our pace because we won’t have the goal keeper.

I felt at the ground that Doc was torched in the end to end running by Langdon. Not criticising him! I love him. Just he can’t do the training at the moment to get up to the kilometres needed for wing.

All these points make me prefer a slight change this week (to add to the obvious Kennedy, Cuners for McKay, Martin).

I want more defensive cover for our weakness (pace down back). Doc plays central defensive mid brilliantly in my view. Great at centre bounce and then plays sweeper. Organises and reads the play. Doesn’t have to run as much as he does when wing. Can press back and plug holes easier. I don’t think Hewett gets back at all well and would prefer him as sub this week.

Playing Doc on ball then gives the full game to Hollands on a wing. I don’t rate the Lions wings (Mcluggage is mostly centre forward now) and think Hollands can do well. With Cotts, Doc and Acres they really push back hard to help and then provide spread options the other way. I think Doc, Cerra and Walsh can cover their clearance exits well and apply the pressure needed on the ball carrier.

Strongly doubt all that happens but is my pref.

Yep, Kemp made a few blunders, mostly leaving his man alone to go help at the contest. He'll learn from it.

Marchbank was far worse imo - dropped marks, fumbled, disposed of the ball poorly.

Both Daniher and Hipwood are 201cm+ - would be worth reviewing how other teams that have been successful against the Lions have countered these two....

Langdon was a non event as far as I saw, didn't really have an influence....

 

[HarryFlashman]

I am hoping it goes this way. Think this could be a big opportunity for Hollands. He was brilliant when he came on. To me he looks a finals player. He plays high speed high intensity which is finals footy. Finals footy is not about big bodies bashing and crashing and being big tough and strong. It's about the intensity you play at and how hard you are willing to compete and to me that is him.

We need Saad to get off the chan. We don't have any other rebounding half backs who will take the game on at the moment so it's Saad or bust. Unless we send Docherty back or bring in Fisher who is far better with ball in hand than Docherty. We have massive problems there, our rebound is not good enough to get around the press/zone so we aren't connecting with our forward from defence. Our ball movement has been crap.

That kind of run, you need guys like Dow, Fisher, Saad etc. They are the ones who can run the ball 5-15m and then release a really good kick to players in space and find those one on ones. Our team selection for finals has taken this quality out of our team. Which frustrates me because it was this run and carry and getting the ball to the back of the zone which unleashed our forwards and got us into finals in the first place.

We beat Melbourne last week because they kicked horribly for goal. It was luck.
We beat Sydney the week before because they kicked horribly for goal. It was also luck.
We have won two finals not on the merit in which we have played but because of luck.
We have reverted back to the slow ugly footy that saw us miss finals last year and nearly miss this year.
We are not playing the brand of footy or structuring the side which got us here.
We should have lost both finals comfortably but we had luck on our side, we got through not because we played better but because of opposition mistakes.

We beat a better Melbourne side that included Brayshaw a month earlier with Dow and Docherty on the ball generating run out of stoppages. Fisher and Saad at half back generating the kind of run you mentioned. Hollands generating run and real gut run on the wing and we didn't need them to kick poorly. We out played them all over the field. Last friday they out played us all over the field. we held them, they kicked horrible for goal and we won on the last play of the day which, ironically was generated from run! Hollands runs hard into space, Docherty runs hard forward, Acres and McGovern run hard to get to the goal square to be there. And we only got back into the game because we were getting the ball in the hands of Saad and Walsh who were running and carrying the ball and putting offensive pressure on Melbourne.

I just wonder whether when it has come to selecting the team, whether or not we have choked a little. Not trusting the players who played huge parts in getting us here. We hit finals and all of a sudden Fisher, Dow, Hollands are out of the side for taller and slower players and all of a sudden we don't carry the ball away from stoppage and our ball movement from defence is rubbish again. We can no longer get around or over the press.

If you can't run with the footy and carry it you have no hope of getting the ball over or around the press and that means no hope of getting the ball to your forwards in space.

We must fix the team or we lose. If we don't have better run and carry this week we lose.

Brisbane kicked 19.9 last week. They aren't going to kick 9.14 (Sydney) and 9.17 (Melbourne).

Fact of the matter is. Finals have come and we have removed most of the good runners from our team. We should have lost both our finals comfortably. This is an opportunity for the coaching group to realise this, identify this but get another opportunity to fix it.

It was run and carry and daring play that got us here and that is what we have taken out of the team. It's that that will progress us past the Preliminary final.

We started scoring because we started to go around and over the oppositions press and that is how we had our winning streak. WE did this by running with the footy and kicking if long and direct and playing more direct footy.

Lions are well coached. We need to do our homework. We will have to be good with our forward positioning. Modern game, forwards need to be selfless and make sure the defenders are held accountable which last season we were terrible at. This year we are better.

What you said about blowing over the press is 100% spot on. You go into the middle, you can go around the press. You run with the footy, all of a sudden you are in range to kick over the press and get it our the back. Our last two games we have gone into the press over and over again.

GWS did it to Port last night. Brisbane did it to Port the week before. Top of the ladder Collingwood have been doing it all season. WE changed our game plan and team make up and started doing it and we won a heap of games in a row and made finals because we were playing this way and selecting the team this way. Now in finals we have gone back to our old ways. A bigger, taller, heavier team that does not run and carry and get the ball into the middle and avoid the opposition's defensive clusters.

Only one rebounding defender. No Dow. No Docherty in the middle. Not much Hollands. No Boyd. No Fisher. No run. And no run this week means we lose.

McKay, Martin are good ins. If we don't have that extra player to run the ball out of stoppages, if we don't have that extra player to run the ball off half back. That means they go to waste as we do not connect with our forwards. We do no go inside 50 with space inside 50 we do not go over or around the zone and we do not kick a good score, just going forward and having it rebounded. Bombing into big clusters of players up the wing and having it rebounded. Need to run the ball this week.

Love it, also - Harris Andrews is as good as anyone in the comp picking off weak/slow entries too.
Even Payne looked like a superstar when we played them last time - typical spud who dons a bloody cape when they play us.
Stretch them & make them defend 1on1 they fall to pieces real quick.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

We beat Melbourne last week because they kicked horribly for goal. It was luck.
We beat Sydney the week before because they kicked horribly for goal. It was also luck.

Swans first - nope, Harry kicks that goal start of the 3rd, we win by 40-50.

Simply incorrect to say it cost them the game.

PA kicked 1.9 in Q4 last night, but the game was never theirs...

Dees - they missed a few, but many were tough shots, tough angles...

And who knows if they had kicked a few of those, ball goes back to middle and all of a sudden it's closer to our goal again.

Every team who goes deep has some luck.

Anyway, stuff them, they went the high hit repeatedly as they knew they couldn't best us on the merits.

 

[Arr0w]

Think it's still being over complicated, trying to find the perfect look, which never exists

Martin and McKay will come in, 2 players that played forward come out. The players making way is debatable, but no right or wrong call

Not sure who was worse, Kemp or Marchbank, but until I watch the replay, Boyd could easily replace Marchbank considering the Lions forward setup, but will leave that aside at the moment

For now

Ins McKay, Martin

Fighting for 1 and the sub
Fog, Cuners, Kennedy, Hollands

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

MCC went a bit early!

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Think it's still being over complicated, trying to find the perfect look, which never exists

Martin and McKay will come in, 2 players that played forward come out. The players making way is debatable, but no right or wrong call

Not sure who was worse, Kemp or Marchbank, but until I watch the replay, Boyd could easily replace Marchbank considering the Lions forward setup, but will leave that aside at the moment

For now

Ins McKay, Martin

Fighting for 2 spots
Fog, Kennedy, Cuners

Fighting for the sub
1 of the above, Hollands, Dow

reckon that's about right.

Query whether Hollands comes into the starting 22 and whether Marchy gets dropped.

 

[Honour]

A bit left field but if you drop Marchbank, you bring in SOS as swingman and half way through third take Pitto off (after finishing 3rd quarter ruck duties) bring on Dow as sub. Silvagni pinch hits for 5 minutes in ruck in last qtr.

 

[jj1978]

With Harry back, TDK May be handy in defence if Hipwood or Daniher get off the leash. Durdin was an emergency against the Dees so clearly he’s in the minds of the MC to handle the extra talls.

We’re banged up and realise some are loathe to change things up but fresh eager players will give just as much or more than tired and sore ones.

Wouldn’t be shocked to see 4 from Martin, Harry, Boyd, Durdin, JSOS, Dow make it into the side.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Last time we met.

Honey, Young, Ed played... no TDK.

For them, no Ashcroft.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Yep, Kemp made a few blunders, mostly leaving his man alone to go help at the contest. He'll learn from it.

Marchbank was far worse imo - dropped marks, fumbled, disposed of the ball poorly.

Both Daniher and Hipwood are 201cm+ - would be worth reviewing how other teams that have been successful against the Lions have countered these two....

Langdon was a non event as far as I saw, didn't really have an influence....

The 2 worst players in the comp to lose position against is Charlie Cameron & Rayner - Cameron will carve u to absolute shreds given even a sniff of space or a slight fumble & Rayner has a ****ing cannon not a leg, makes intelligent decisions & takes a good grab if he gets a run at it - exactly what Kemp is struggling with (not saying drop him).
Both can go missing big time if they don’t get touches early & forced to work hard (& wide) for a touch.

 

[ferrisb]

In honour of us making the prelim, the club has unveiled a new statue.... Mount Touchmore

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The 2 worst players to lose position against is Charlie Cameron & Rayner - Cameron will carve u to absolute shreds given even a sniff of space or a slight fumble & Rayner has a ******* cannon not a leg, makes intelligent decisions & takes a good grab if he gets a run at it - exactly what Kemp is struggling with (not saying drop him).
Both can go missing big time if they don’t get touches early & forced to work hard (& wide) for a touch.

The best defence is to keep the ball out of their F50 as much as humanly possible!

 

[Thrawn]

Brisbane kicked 19.9 last week. They aren't going to kick 9.14 (Sydney) and 9.17 (Melbourne).

But they did kick 9.18 a few weeks ago vs the Saints at the Gabba...

 

[jj1978]

Aim is to make them worry about our game. We need a good start this week to settle the nerves and get into the groove from as early as possible. They have players that can get flustered easily.

As much as I hate saying this, coaches to let Harry snap every frickin shot at goal.

 

[Thrawn]

In honour of us making the prelim, the club has unveiled a new statue.... Mount Touchmore

View attachment 1805950

Marchbank looks like a zombie.

 

[jj1978]

In honour of us making the prelim, the club has unveiled a new statue.... Mount Touchmore

View attachment 1805950

Always thought Acres was a Gemini. Marchbank looks stoned.

 

[Michael Jezz]

My

Think it's still being over complicated, trying to find the perfect look, which never exists

Martin and McKay will come in, 2 players that played forward come out. The players making way is debatable, but no right or wrong call

Not sure who was worse, Kemp or Marchbank, but until I watch the replay, Boyd could easily replace Marchbank considering the Lions forward setup, but will leave that aside at the moment

For now

Ins McKay, Martin

Fighting for 1 and the sub
Fog, Cuners, Kennedy, Hollands

The conundrum in finals is the choice between choosing players who should be best 22 and are 80% fit and fully fit fringe players. I reckon in finals fitness should trump structure and then tweak your game plan to suit the players selected. You are playing with fire if you can't run out the game

 

[Accidental genius]

I agree with those calling for more runners/speed but I also think we need players that can apply loads of pressure and play with a high level of intensity like the majority of our players have been doing.

That’s what has been giving us the wins.

In just about every game we’ve been making loads of mistakes and some that are bizarre but the high pressure seems to make up for our lack of polish.

No other team at this stage seems to be able to match our pressure/intensity.

The gws loss is hard to gauge because it was a dead rubber match.

 

[HarryFlashman]

But they did kick 9.18 a few weeks ago vs the Saints at the Gabba...

I was at that game, they were deadset toying with them and gave no ****s.
Should have been over in the 1st quarter.
Saints tried the slow it down, contest/defence first & they picked it apart at will & slammed on multiple goals at a time.
Lions were sloppy but they knew they could afford to be given the Saints rarely kick a score.

 

[ESKIE]

So by next weeks game Brisbane (& Collingwood) will have played 1 game in a month

 

[jooce8891]

In honour of us making the prelim, the club has unveiled a new statue.... Mount Touchmore

View attachment 1805950

needs liam jones

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I have posted this before. I spoke with Chris Judd in 2011. He said "Coaches get a club to the last 2 weeks, a high 50+% of players play in 1 prelim in their careers but only around 10% play in a premiership, so from prelim week, it is up to the playing group, AND YOU MUST NEVER ASSUME YOU GET ANOTHER CHANCE, because the stats say you won't
(Paraphrasing, but that was basically what he said)

Recall Parkin saying the same about the ‘95 team. The leader took over.

We’ve got great leaders!

 

[bigblueboy]

Can we beat the Lions in a contested grind? I'm not sure it's the best method up there. Hitting the scoreboard heavily with better transition to Harry, Charlie and Martin would work better imo. Moot point anyway as the MC will lean towards the contested footy model.

I think the only way we beat them is by making it a grind.
Monster them in the stoppages and lock it in the forward half.