Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[pK75]

I don’t think we would have let it happen unless we were confident of getting band one. It’s gonna be band one

He’s unrestricted so you get get to force a trade. You get what you get

 

[Mattman93]

Is there a resource for detailed (read, useful) statistics of draft prospects? eg, contested/uncontested breakdown, ground balls both hard ball and loose ball gets, etc.

I'm guessing not really (even though the clubs surely have access to one).

Bump, anyone?

 

[botts]

He’s unrestricted so you get get to force a trade. You get what you get

Watch this space then ay

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

1 Richmond O'Sullivan
2 Brisbane Ashcroft
3 North Trainer
4 WCE Smith
5 Adelaide Draper
6 Richmond Smillie
7 St Kilda Langford
8 St Kilda Reid
9 Melbourne Armstrong
10 Essendon Lalor
11 Sun's Lombard
12 Richmond Travaglia
13 Richmond Hotton
14 Carlton Lindsey
15 WCE Allen

Did a quick mock draft on the ladder right now but added in a few possibilities like if St Kilda get a compo for Battle. If Richmonds trades go though with Sun's and Freo also West Coast with Barrass to Hawthorn.

If Carlton pass on Berry at that pick I'm nuking Ikon Park

 

[SteeleSaints]

Can I ask a dumb question but its one that has me baffled.

Apart from population differences -

Q. Why dont SA & WA produce the amount of elite kids (per capita) that Victoria does?

Surely those states have as many kids/adults playing the game that Victoria does, but they dont seem to be able to produce the numbers of AFL quality kids that Victoria does?

The way things are going in recent years the northern states will over take them in the future, with the numbers of kids they are producing.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Bump, anyone?

Pretty sure premier data cover all school footy in Victoria while champion data cover all Coates League games and SANFL games. Detailed stats aren’t available for the avg punter.

 

[Mattman93]

Pretty sure premier data cover all school footy in Victoria while champion data cover all Coates League games and SANFL games. Detailed stats aren’t available for the avg punter.

So very frustrating; as with the video coverage, I don't really understand why they wouldn't want to remove as many barriers as possible for following this stuff.

Well, if any non-average punters with access to this stuff want to shoot them my way, would be appreciated.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

So very frustrating; as with the video coverage, I don't really understand why they wouldn't want to remove as many barriers as possible for following this stuff.

Well, if any non-average punters with access to this stuff want to shoot them my way, would be appreciated.

The coverage and the quality of coverage outside of the championships sucks, but you can’t really expect much when they are playing on regional grounds in sometimes pretty average conditions.

I guess if the demand was there for junior footy then the AFL would invest more into its production, but I just don’t think you’d have the demand to justify it.

Regarding detailed stats, they are pretty much only available to the Talent League clubs for coaching/development purposes and scouts/AFL clubs for recruitment purposes. I think they keep the detailed stats away from the public eye to keep the pressure and judgement away from developing kids.

 

[Mattman93]

The coverage and the quality of coverage outside of the championships sucks, but you can’t really expect much when they are playing on regional grounds in sometimes pretty average conditions.

I guess if the demand was there for junior footy then the AFL would invest more into its production, but I just don’t think you’d have the demand to justify it.

Regarding detailed stats, they are pretty much only available to the Talent League clubs for coaching/development purposes and scouts/AFL clubs for recruitment purposes. I think they keep the detailed stats away from the public eye to keep the pressure and judgement away from developing kids.

Well sure, but at the same time they want to generate interest in the draft, the upcoming prospects, and expect us to sit through hours and hours of a painfully slow draft night covering the selection of apparent young superstars. I'm not expecting a higher investment in production values as such, but anything which is out there anyway (eg match vision, detailed stats) yet hidden to the public is a bit galling IMO.

 

[GoTigers2015]

How much of a certainty is the Saints receiving a band 1 compo pick for Battle?

Twomey on Gettable quoted 4.5M over 6 years (750K per year) which would make it band 2 (end of first) based on 2023 ranges

900K+ band 1 first round
700-900K band 2 end of first round
550-700K band 3 second round

 

[Moonatic77]

Can I ask a dumb question but its one that has me baffled.

Apart from population differences -

Q. Why dont SA & WA produce the amount of elite kids (per capita) that Victoria does?

Surely those states have as many kids/adults playing the game that Victoria does, but they dont seem to be able to produce the numbers of AFL quality kids that Victoria does?

The way things are going in recent years the northern states will over take them in the future, with the numbers of kids they are producing.

No question is dumb brother.
Vic just simply breed em better. It's in our blood as Vic's, sort of like the the Vikings when it came to war
S.A and W.A one day will hopefully catch up to us

 

[Miller1971]

Can I ask a dumb question but its one that has me baffled.

Apart from population differences -

Q. Why dont SA & WA produce the amount of elite kids (per capita) that Victoria does?

Surely those states have as many kids/adults playing the game that Victoria does, but they dont seem to be able to produce the numbers of AFL quality kids that Victoria does?

The way things are going in recent years the northern states will over take them in the future, with the numbers of kids they are producing.

Have you done the numbers?

Maybe 'per capita' they do?

There is also inherent bias in the system, 10 clubs in VIC, talent league and recruiters largely based in Vic all watching Vic footy. Recruiter working at 1 of 10 Vic clubs choosing between 2 marginal picks in the 4th round, one from WA and one from Vic, most of the time they will take the Victorian - just as a WA recruiter would take the WA kid (but there are 2 clubs doing it, not 10)

Worsened by the fact that a Lions recruiter (and less so a Suns one) will still lean towards the Vic kid as they have no respect for their local competition at all up here.

 

[wimpy]

Can I ask a dumb question but its one that has me baffled.

Apart from population differences -

Q. Why dont SA & WA produce the amount of elite kids (per capita) that Victoria does?

Surely those states have as many kids/adults playing the game that Victoria does, but they dont seem to be able to produce the numbers of AFL quality kids that Victoria does?

The way things are going in recent years the northern states will over take them in the future, with the numbers of kids they are producing.

Because the SANFL doesn't get anywhere near the money the Coates League has chucked at it.
Simply it's money. The salary cap for clubs have been significantly reduced since covid.
Also, the $300,000 a year the SANFL clubs received each year from the sale of Football Park has now ended.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Thanks for the reply

Where am I downplaying? I’m genuinely questioning. The fact is he has what 15-16 AFL listed players feeding him the ball lace out v part time footballers. If you watched games half the time he’s unmarked inside 50 which simply doesn’t happen at AFL level.

Cadman at 1 yet he clearly wasn’t the best player. GWS was scared the others would come back to VIC.

Re the Whitlock brothers you may see them feature in my top 10 soon that’s how high I rate them. I agree with you there.

Armstrong is rated high by many but I feel that is due to a lack of high end KPP prospects.

The VFL form might be questionable if he’d done nothing else this season but he’s clearly been building all season

Looking at the key forwards in draft , not one of them played a more complete game than Shanahan in the final allies game against Vic country , not even Armstrong

He also took the most contested marks in the U18s champs

So you can see his form anywhere he’s been and it’s been gradually building to new heights all year

Then you add in the background ie less than 2 years taking footy seriously post basketball and it’s pretty compelling

Firmly in top 10 mix , likely just on the edge 11-15 range

 

[Miller1971]

SANFL is still comfortably the best competition outside the AFL in the country, far better standard than the VFL.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

SANFL is still comfortably the best competition outside the AFL in the country, far better standard than the VFL.

Not all VFL games are equal

The better VFL games full of listed afl players from the stronger afl clubs are better IMO

But the poor VFL games are worse standard

 

[Coona Blues]

If Carlton pass on Berry at that pick I'm nuking Ikon Park

Lindsay is a great selection for us. I would find it very difficult if Lindsay and Berry both last to our selection.

 

[anotherletdown]

How much of a certainty is the Saints receiving a band 1 compo pick for Battle?

It should be the longest of long shots.... you wouldn't get close to that value in a trade, so I see no reason you should in compensation.

The whole compensation system is shot, struggling teams pushing out their better players for another rebuilding draft pick was not the intention of free agency. It's just free draft value to stronger teams and perpetual rebuild phases for the rest

 

[bungalow_bill]

It should be the longest of long shots.... you wouldn't get close to that value in a trade, so I see no reason you should in compensation.

The whole compensation system is shot, struggling teams pushing out their better players for another rebuilding draft pick was not the intention of free agency. It's just free draft value to stronger teams and perpetual rebuild phases for the rest

Agreed. Very bad for the culture as the Lions found out the hard way with the whole Bradshaw/Rischitelli fiasco in 2009.

 

[Mutineer]

SANFL is still comfortably the best competition outside the AFL in the country, far better standard than the VFL.

No way, the SANFL these days is nowhere near the standard of the VFL, made up of mostly honest triers, players that got passed over in the draft and past AFL players that have been delisted or retired from that comp because they couldn't get a game. It stands to reason with 14 teams in the VFL with AFL listed players and SA with just the 2, even the VFL unaligned teams are made up of a lot former AFL players and players that were passed over in the AFL draft.

 

[botts]

It should be the longest of long shots.... you wouldn't get close to that value in a trade, so I see no reason you should in compensation.

The whole compensation system is shot, struggling teams pushing out their better players for another rebuilding draft pick was not the intention of free agency. It's just free draft value to stronger teams and perpetual rebuild phases for the rest

Well not ever team gets an academy so we have to do what we can

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

My updated rankings for anyone that is interested.

Few changes from previous rankings with Ashcroft pushes to number 1 off the back of his incredible fortnight. FOS slipping behind both Ashcroft and Draper. Shanahan pushing into the top 20.

Kayle Gerreyn & Jack Ough being my bolters. Have Gerreyn pushing that top 15 mark while Ough pushes into the top 30.

Pick	Name	Height	Position	Club	Comments
1	Levi Ashcroft	179cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Accumulating midfielder that powers from contest to contest. Balanced inside and outside game.
2	Sid Draper	180cm	Midfielder	South Adelaide	Classy midfielder that has some speed and evasiveness. Well balanced with excellent vision.
3	Finn O'Sullivan	182cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Courageous midfielder who is strong over head, powerful runner who runs hard both ways.
4	Harvey Langford	190cm	Midfielder	Dandenong Stingrays	Tall and versatile midfielder who is strong overhead and has a booming left foot kick.
5	Jagga Smith	181cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Well balanced accumulating midfielder who is at home on the inside and outside the contest.
6	Leo Lombard	178cm	Midfielder	GC Academy	Combative contested midfielder who has some real zip around the contest.
7	Harry Armstrong	193cm	Key Forward	Sandringham Dragons	High workrate key forward who is at home on the lead. Excellent set shot routine.
8	Josh Smillie	194cm	Midfielder	Eastern Ranges	Tall midfielder that finds possession at will and has a long penetrating kick.
9	Luke Trainor	194cm	Key Defender	Sandringham Dragons	Intercepting general defender who can play on smalls and talls. Composed and balanced.
10	Sam Lalor	187cm	Midfielder/General Forward	GWV Rebels	Powerful midfielder, who is explosive and damaging. Can roll forward and have an impact.
11	Tobie Travaglia	187cm	General Defender	Bendigo Pioneers	Intercepting defender who can provide run and carry. Excellent defender with leadership potential.
12	Jack Whitlock	200cm	Tall Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Rangy key forward that marks at the highest point but can also find the ball at ground level.
13	Kayle Gerryn	199cm	Key Forward/Ruck	West Perth	Unique athletic prospect that has a tonne of potential upside.
14	Xavier Lindsay	183cm	Midfielder	Gippsland Power	Left footed midfielder with a damaging kick. Has some speed to break the lines.
15	Jobe Shanahan	194cm	Key Forward	Bendigo Pioneers	Contested marking key forward who times his leads and jumps aat the ball to perfection.
16	Matt Whitlock	198cm	Key Defender	Murray Bushrangers	One on one defender who can also swing forward. Strong overhead but equally adept on the ground.
17	Isaac Kako	175cm	Small Forward	Calder Cannons	Dynamic and exciting small who can kick goals from anywhere. Also pushes into the midfield.
18	Murphy Reid	180cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Smart and classy midfielder who makes good decisions with ball in hand. One touch.
19	Joe Berry	180cm	Small Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Lively small forward who can crumb but also present an option on the lead. Classy goal kicker.
20	Taj Hotton	182cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Classy midfielder forward who has plenty of X-Factor. Unfortunately done his ACL.
21	Bo Allen	191cm	General Defender/Midfielder	Peel Thunder	Physical left footer who leads from the front. Uses his speed and long kicking to launch offensive attacks.
22	Alex Dodson	203cm	Ruck	Sturt	Athletic ruckman who covers the ground well and can find the ball. Very balanced for a tall.
23	Jonty Faull	195cm	Tall Forward	GWV Rebels	Goal kicking key forward who works hard to provide an option. Competitive in the air
24	Harry O'Farrell	196cm	Key Defender	Calder Cannons	Lockdown competitive defender that uses his reach and closing speed to advantage.
25	Christian Moraes	183cm	Midfielder	Eastern Ranges	Accumulating midfielder that can roll forward and impact the scoreboard. Strong overhead.
26	Tom Gross	181cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Tough, contested midfielder that has a real competitive streak. Solid overhead.
27	Ben Camporeale	186cm	Midfielder	Glenelg	Balanced midfielder who works hard between the arcs. Can find the ball inside and outside the contest.
28	Tom Sims	199cm	Key Forward	Northern Knights	Lead up key forward who has good workrate. Solid at ground level for a kid his size.
29	Cooper Hynes	190cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Dandenong Stingrays	Tall midfielder who is a goal kicking threat when playing forward of center. Strong over the ball.
30	Jack Ough	193cm	General Defender	GWV Rebels	Hard working and athletic half back/wing who can play a variety of roles across the ground.
31	Lachie Jacques	184cm	General Defender	Geelong Falcons	Defence first defender, who can intercept and provide drive off half back. Reliable ball user.
32	Alix Tauru	191cm	General Defender	Gippsland Power	Athletic defender who can play on talls and smalls, excellent closing speed and leap. Sound decision making.
33	Sam Marshall	185cm	Midfielder	Brisbane Academy	Elite runner who motors from contest to contest. Creates separation from the contest with his pace.
34	Tyler Welsh	191cm	Key Forward	Woodville West	Undersize key forward who is a strong lead/mark type. Neat set shot goal kicking.
35	Hamish Davis	190cm	Midfielder	Claremont	Elite runner who can play as a genuine mid or as a lead up half forward, good kick and decision maker
36	Malakai Champion	172cm	Small Forward	Subiaco	Flashy small forward who can kick goals from anywhere. Provides good defensive pressure.
37	Noah Mraz	198cm	Key Defender	Dandenong Stingrays	Intercepting defender, who has excellent disposal and decision making. Good closing speed.
38	Luke Urquhart	189cm	Midfielder	East Fremantle	Tall midfielder that can also play across half back. Uses his body well in contested situations.
39	Lucas Camporeale	185cm	Midfielder	Glenelg	Natural wingman who keeps his width and can accumulate the ball on the outside.
40	Josh Murphy	190cm	General Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Impact player who has plenty of x-factor. Contested marking threat who is dangerous at ground level.
41	Archer Day-Wicks	186cm	General Forward	Bendigo Pioneers	X-Factor player who can mark, and be damaging at ground level. Creative and classy ball user.
42	Jesse Dattoli	179cm	Midfielder/Small Forward	Northern Knights	High footy IQ, who can play a variety of roles around the ground. Dangerous and smart around goals.
43	Zak Johnson	185cm	Midfielder	Northern Knights	Classy midfielder, who moves well, accumulates the ball and makes good decisions.
44	Luca Greggo	183cm	General Defender/Midfielder	Western Jets	Workman utility who can play a variety of roles across the ground. Reliable type.
45	Pheonix Hargraves	182cm	Midfielder	South Adelaide	Accumulating midfielder who have high work rate. Can also impact the scoreboard
46	Charlie Nicholls	197cm	Key Forward	Central District	Strong contested marking key forward who provides a leading option up the ground.
47	Evan Bradley	174cm	Small Forward	North Adelaide	Classy small forward who is creative and damaging by foot. Natural goalkicking with plenty of X Factor
48	Ben Barrett	174cm	Small Forward	South Adelaide	Lightning quick small forward who has a bucket of tricks and high impact per possession.
49	Harrison Oliver	181cm	General Defender	Sandringham Dragons	Rebounding defender who uses his composure and good decision making to good effect.
50	Xavier Ivisic	180cm	Midfielder	Geelong Falcons	Reliable inside midfielder who can also find the ball on the outside. Good vision in the contest.
50+	Cody Anderson	181cm	Midfielder	Eastern Ranges	Relentless midfielder that tackles hard. At home inside the contest, can also hit the scoreboard.
50+	Nathaniel Sulzberger	184cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Strong contested player who offers a point of difference with his power around the contest.
50+	Pat Retschko	188cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Hard working midfielder who can play inside and outside the contest. Strong runner.
50+	Jaxon Artemis	187cm	Wing	South Fremantle	Hard running outside type who can also create off half back, good decision making and skills
50+	Oliver Depaoli-Kubank	178cm	Midfielder/Small Forward	Tasmania Devils	Consistent type who can play a variety of roles. Reliable disposal and sound decision maker.
50+	Jayden Nguyen	177cm	General Defender/Midfielder	Calder Cannons	Small defender who can push up the ground. Creative ball user who uses his speed to impact the game.
50+	Zaydyn Lockwood	198cm	Key Defender	Bendigo Pioneers	Raw and athletic key defender who has plenty of upside. Solid defensive craft and in the 1v1's.
50+	Oliver Warburton	185cm	Midfielder	Murray Bushrangers	Versatile type who can play inside and outside the contest. Consistent with good defensive intensity.
50+	Jasper Alger	182cm	Small Forward	Oakleigh Chargers	Classy small forward who makes the most of his opportunities. Good defensive intensity.
50+	Lucas McInerney	180cm	Midfielder	Northern Knights	Rangy winger who keeps his width and can be damaging forward of center. Good disposer.
50+	Noah Howes	196cm	Key Forward	South Adelaide	Overage key forward with strong workrate. Good ground level game and has natural forward craft
50+	River Stevens	176cm	Small Forward	Geelong Falcons	Classy half forward that makes good decisions with the ball. Creative left footer.
50+	Charlie West	195cm	Key Forward	Woodville West	Strong marking and physical key forward. Flies aggressively at the ball in contested situations.
50+	Zac McInnes	196cm	Key Forward	Geelong Falcons	Mobile key forward with good forward craft. Uses workrate to present multiple times.
50+	James Barrat	193cm	Key Forward	Bendigo Pioneers	Leading forward with good leap and excellent timing. Elite forward craft and workrate.
50+	Louie Montgomery	184cm	General Defender	North Adelaide	Composed defender who uses the ball well. Solid 1v1 player who can also create off half back.
50+	Bailey McKenzie	191cm	General Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Mercurial 3rd tall type that can impact the game at ground level or in the air. Classy in front of goal.
50+	Gabriel Stumpf	196cm	Key Forward	Northern Knights	Athletic key forward who is at home leading at the ball carrier. Strong workrate.
50+	Lucas Tovey	198cm	Key Defender	Oakleigh Chargers	Intercepting key defender, who uses his body really well in the contest. Reliable ball user.
50+	Ben Hopkins	190cm	General Defender	Dandenong Stingrays	Overage accumulating defender who can also push up to a wing. Quick and hard running.
50+	Kobe Ryan	183cm	Midfielder	West Adelaide	Mature age inside midfielder that wins contested possessions and has manic defensive effort.
50+	Joe Pike	203cm	Ruck	Geelong Falcons	Overage ruckman who competes at ground level. Solid tap work and follow up effort.
50+	Oliver Dean	201cm	Ruck	Tasmania Devils	Neat tap ruckman that can impact forward of center.
50+	Waylon Davey-Motlop	171cm	Small Forward	Northern Territory	Classy small forward who has plenty of X-Factor and upside. Can kick goals from anywhere inside fwd 50.
50+	Tallan Rozenweig	197cm	Key Forward	Central District	Tall forward who uses his leap and long limbs to take the ball at the highest point. Neat kick.
50+	Xavier Kardarchi	186cm	Midfielder	Western Jets	Accumulating midfielder who is strong around the contest. Composed with a solid long kick.
50+	Oliver Hannaford	180cm	Midfielder	GWV Falcons	Agile midfielder who uses his side step to create space around the contest. Good defensive intent.
50+	Damon Hollow	180cm	Midfielder	Calder Cannons	Accumulating wingman who can be damaging with his disposal. Long kicking a real feature.
50+	Kade Herbert	184cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Woodville West	High footy IQ, who can play a variety of roles around the ground. Sound decision maker.
50+	Harry Charleson	182cm	General Defender	GWV Rebels	Reliable defender who is composed and can provide some drive off half back.
50+	Liam Kershaw	194cm	Midfielder	Geelong Falcons	Overage wingman who offers a point of difference with his height, marking ability and running capacity
50+	Joel Cochrane	195cm	Key Defender	Sydney Academy	Intercepting defender who can find the ball and provide rebound from the back half.
50+	Loch McTaggert	183cm	General Defender	Perth	Neat defender who has good balance between his defensive application and rebound
50+	Max Rohr	197cm	Key Forward	Claremont	Overage key forward who has natural forward craft. Dangerous in the air and neat with ball in hand.
50+	Hugh Boxshall	187cm	Midfielder	Claremont	Strong running midfielder who can play inside and outside the contest. Good decision maker.
50+	Lucas Impey	197cm	Ruck	Western Jets	Elite tap Ruckman who is useful around the ground. Comes from a basketball background.
50+	Keighton Matofai-Forbes	188cm	General Forward	Western Jets	Powerful half forward type who is a threat both aerially and with ground balls.
50+	Angus Clarke	189cm	General Defender	Glenelg	Good balance between offensive and defensive game. Creates plenty of drive off half back with his speed
50+	Josh Dolan	177cm	Small Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Zippy small forward who likes to link up as a high half forward. Creative ball user with solid decision making
50+	Cody Angove	183cm	Midfielder	Claremont	Strong running midfielder who can play on every line. Likes to take the game on and plays with a bit of flair
50+	Adrian Cole	195cm	Tall Defender	Sandringham Dragons	Versatile tall who can play on smaller forwards. Good closing speed with defense first attitude.
50+	Ned Bowman	186cm	General Forward	Norwood	Powerful and hard working forward/mid who has natural goal sense and footy IQ.

Is Trainor alot better than Mraz. Pick positions would suggest it.

 

[FrogDude]

It should be the longest of long shots.... you wouldn't get close to that value in a trade, so I see no reason you should in compensation.

The whole compensation system is shot, struggling teams pushing out their better players for another rebuilding draft pick was not the intention of free agency. It's just free draft value to stronger teams and perpetual rebuild phases for the rest

Does that really apply here though? We aren't pushing him out, we're matching the money on his offer. But as an unrestricted free agent, there is nothing we can do if he decides to leave. We can't influence the compo with the threat of a match, only promise to pay the same and hope he stays

 

[YeOldTiger]

I've just come straight from the Richmond Draft board with an update. To this point it's pretty much resolved we will be going to the draft with the following:

1
2/3
5,6,7,8/9
12/13
14
16
20&21
23/24
26
29
31
41 and
64

Phew.

I know it looks a lot but remember sometimes we won't be getting for example 12 AND 13 but more likely 12 OR 13. Also I haven't included the picks that will be moved over to 2025 first rounders for Sharp and Ludowyke.

Anyway I better get back because there are more picks incoming I believe. No rest for the wicked. This is like the Bitcoin rush all over again.

More updates at 11

 

[pupstar]

No question is dumb brother.
Vic just simply breed em better. It's in our blood as Vic's, sort of like the the Vikings when it came to war
S.A and W.A one day will hopefully catch up to us

After reading all the answers i still like yours best my fellow Victorian. ha ha.