Prediction 2024 Brownlow Medal contenders

[KissKiss]

Haha, yeah, Judd was a classic for that. The number of votes he got in games the Blues lost in 2010 was ridiculous. Swanny got shafted that year. For Judd to get the three votes over him in that game when the Blues lost by 12 goals was ridiculous. I may be old-fashioned, but players that get 30+ disposals and 2-3 goals should be in the votes. Yes, not every disposal is damaging, but if you have 25+ effective disposals as a mid-fielder, odds are a lot are.

I reckon people are more and more realising the opposite that large disposal numbers dont mean much on their own (goal kicking from mids is the opposite though and is always highly rated). Im not meaning this to be disrespectful, but I wouldnt be surprised this year if Daicos doesnt poll well in a bunch of games that he has a bunch of touches. Losing team and maybe not as effective as he could be might mean he gets some 1 or 2 vote games when people have him down for 3s.

 

[flyingmagpies]

I reckon people are more and more realising the opposite that large disposal numbers dont mean much on their own (goal kicking from mids is the opposite though and is always highly rated). Im not meaning this to be disrespectful, but I wouldnt be surprised this year if Daicos doesnt poll well in a bunch of games that he has a bunch of touches. Losing team and maybe not as effective as he could be might mean he gets some 1 or 2 vote games when people have him down for 3s.

I don't rate disposals either; I typically value clearances/contested possessions/goals as key stats for mids. I'm not expecting him to get it. He doesn't poll in games Pies lose, regardless of his performance. Many people aren't expecting him to poll in games where he had a lot of touches. Just look at the first two games - he led the games in possessions, clearances, contested possessions and kicked goals - but no one expects him to poll at all for them. You need to be able to poll votes in losing games to win the Brownlow. Look at last year: Cripps got about 10 votes in losing games, Neale about 8, and Daicos didn't get 1. Including the Brisbane game, where he had 12 more disposals (at 80% DE) than the next player, kicked 2 goals and led contested possessions. If you don't poll in losing games, you rarely win.

 

[KissKiss]

I don't rate disposals either; I typically value clearances/contested possessions/goals as key stats for mids. I'm not expecting him to get it. He doesn't poll in games Pies lose, regardless of his performance. Many people aren't expecting him to poll in games where he had a lot of touches. Just look at the first two games - he led the games in possessions, clearances, contested possessions and kicked goals - but no one expects him to poll at all for them. You need to be able to poll votes in losing games to win the Brownlow. Look at last year: Cripps got about 10 votes in losing games, Neale about 8, and Daicos didn't get 1. Including the Brisbane game, where he had 12 more disposals (at 80% DE) than the next player, kicked 2 goals and led contested possessions. If you don't poll in losing games, you rarely win.

Yeah totally agree you need to be able to pick up those 1 or 2 votes in loses if you play for a top table team.

Although which game was that last year? There was the one he had a heap of the ball but had started in the back line and his man (might have been Cameron) got off the chain and kicked a few goals on him early - ended the day with 6. Daicos ended up being moved into the midfield as he was having a bad first half. From memory he then got a heap of the ball late once the game was done. So its a classic game of he got a heap of the ball but his team lost by ~30 while the opposition had a player kick 6, another player kick 4 and then a bunch of even mids all with 20 something disposals. He might have got 1 vote but Im not sure I would have considered him in the best 4 or 5 on the ground.

 

[H00t]

Yeah totally agree you need to be able to pick up those 1 or 2 votes in loses if you play for a top table team.

Although which game was that last year? There was the one he had a heap of the ball but had started in the back line and his man (might have been Cameron) got off the chain and kicked a few goals on him early - ended the day with 6. Daicos ended up being moved into the midfield as he was having a bad first half. From memory he then got a heap of the ball late once the game was done. So its a classic game of he got a heap of the ball but his team lost by ~30 while the opposition had a player kick 6, another player kick 4 and then a bunch of even mids all with 20 something disposals. He might have got 1 vote but Im not sure I would have considered him in the best 4 or 5 on the ground.

He received 7 coaches votes for that game while Ashcroft and Neale who got the two and one didn’t receive any.

Rayner was also stiffed that game. Who had 8 coaches votes.

Umps seem to notice some players more than others irrespective of performance.

 

[KissKiss]

He received 7 coaches votes for that game while Ashcroft and Neale who got the two and one didn’t receive any.

Rayner was also stiffed that game. Who had 8 coaches votes.

Umps seem to notice some players more than others irrespective of performance.

Makes sense. He was nowhere near the 3 votes for that game but wouldnt be a huge outcry if he'd got the 1.

Again I reckon thats what might be the difference this year for Daicos. Team had too many loses so might get a more 1 or 2 votes than the 3s he needs

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Getting 3 votes for a 20 disposal, 3 score involvement game against GWS was bad but also got 1 vote each against Adelaide and Pies for 23 and 22 disposal games where a number of players where more worthy of votes.

Was a fix and a half last year.

Yeah and there were no games where he should have got votes and didn’t gee you remember those games well for a hawthorn supporter or did we just look at the numbers and make judgement on those???? If you don’t realise Neale is champion you are not watching.

 

[flyingmagpies]

Yeah totally agree you need to be able to pick up those 1 or 2 votes in loses if you play for a top table team.

Although which game was that last year? There was the one he had a heap of the ball but had started in the back line and his man (might have been Cameron) got off the chain and kicked a few goals on him early - ended the day with 6. Daicos ended up being moved into the midfield as he was having a bad first half. From memory he then got a heap of the ball late once the game was done. So its a classic game of he got a heap of the ball but his team lost by ~30 while the opposition had a player kick 6, another player kick 4 and then a bunch of even mids all with 20 something disposals. He might have got 1 vote but Im not sure I would have considered him in the best 4 or 5 on the ground.

I think he started on Rayner. I doubt it would've been Cameron, he plays too deep. That was the game I expected him to get the 2 or 1. He was dominant in the first and third quarters and still got the 10+ disposals and a goal in the last. I thought he was streets ahead of Neale and Ashcroft, who got the 1 and 2 votes.

 

[H00t]

Makes sense. He was nowhere near the 3 votes for that game but wouldnt be a huge outcry if he'd got the 1.

Again I reckon thats what might be the difference this year for Daicos. Team had too many loses so might get a more 1 or 2 votes than the 3s he needs

Cameron was definitely the clear 3. Rayner or Daicos either way being the 1 and 2.

Daicos has played well enough to win it, just depends on how the umps voted.

 

[H00t]

Yeah and there were no games where he should have got votes and didn’t gee you remember those games well for a hawthorn supporter or did we just look at the numbers and make judgement on those???? If you don’t realise Neale is champion you are not watching.

I definitely watch way too much footy for my own good.

No shame in Neale being someone looked after by the umps. Cripps is the same. Even JHF or Newk gets lots of votes. They are all still really good to great players.

Someone like Bont or GAJ always seem to have to work extra hard to get votes. Always been a bit of a fascination of mine seeing who polls well and who doesn’t.

 

[Lingsface]

How much is Newcombe paying for top 10?

 

[Cleansweep17]

Bont surely wins he’s got the MVP after all.

 

[jakson68]

Bont surely wins he’s got the MVP after all.

If Nick doesn't win it, I hope Bont does.
He has had a great season and deserves to win at least one, as IMO he is the best player in the comp.

My favorite non Collingwood player.

 

[Cleansweep17]

If Nick doesn't win it, I hope Bont does.
He has had a great season and deserves to win at least one, as IMO he is the best player in the comp.

My favorite non Collingwood player.

Fair enough but if you go by the coaches award he won’t even make top 5.

Which would be pretty weird for the MVP and AA captain.

I hope Cripps wins it.

 

[jakson68]

Fair enough but if you go by the coaches award he won’t even make top 5.

Which would be pretty weird for the MVP and AA captain.

I hope Cripps wins it.

Would also be a worthy winner.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Fair recency bias with JHF from port faithful
The first quarter of the year he missed a couple games and had a couple games with under 20 disposals.
AA Brownlow AFLCA are a judged on the full season.
It was also Butters carrying the team through the midseason funk.
That’s why JHF wasn’t even in the top 10 of AFLCA voting

 

[GC2015]

The Favourite has won the Brownlow 6 of the last 10 times, but because they haven't won the last two, it's 'becoming less common'?

Only 2 of the last 5 (40%) favourites have won the Brownlow. Of the 5 previous Brownlow medallists before that, 4 (80%) of them won it. That's what was meant by it's becoming less common.

2023: Favourite - Marcus Bontempelli. Winner - Lachie Neale (5th favourite)
2022: Favourite - Lachie Neale. Winner - Patrick Cripps (3rd favourite)
2021: Favourite - Oliie Wines. Winner - Ollie Wines (1st favourite)
2020: Favourite - Lachie Neale. Winner - Lachie Neale (1st favourite)
2019: Favourite - Patrick Dangerfield. Winner - Nat Fyfe (3rd favourite)

2018: Favourite - Tom Mitchell. Winner - Tom Mitchell (1st favourite)
2017: Favourite - Dustin Martin. Winner - Dustin Martin (1st favourite)
2016: Favourite - Patrick Dangerfield. Winner - Patrick Dangerfield (1st favourite)
2015: Favourite - Nat Fyfe. Winner - Nat Fyfe (1st favourite)
2014: Favourite - Joel Selwood. Winner - Matt Priddis (6th favourite)