List Mgmt. 2024 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

 

[Dan87]

I think Heeney was amazing as a forward and then amazing as a mid

I think he probably needs to be rotated more for his body's sake going forward

Is it lower leg stress fracture on the same side as chronic ankle or am I wrong

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Just looking at our first rounders for the last twenty years (drafts where we had a pick only). I guess we'd have to agree onwhat we consider a hit or miss. Is it picking a good player or is them staying at your club the measure of success? I'm not including Academy picks for better or worse in this.

• 2006:
  • Pick 15: Dylan O'Keefe. Miss
• 2007:
  • Pick 11: Daniel Veszpremi - 23 games - Miss
• 2008:
  • Pick 12: Lewis Johnston - 10 games - Miss
• 2009:
  • Pick 6: Gary Rohan 204 games (106 for us) Hit
  • Pick 14 Lewis Jetta 216 games (127 for us) Hit
• 2010:
  • Pick 21 Jed Lamb - 66 Games (12 for us) Miss
• 2012
  • Pick 22: Dean Towers 57 Games Miss I guess but not a lot was going on in that section of this draft.
• 2013
  • Pick 15: Zac Jones - 150 games (90 for us) Hit
• 2016
  • Pick 11: Ollie Florent - 168 games and counting. Hit
  • Pick 21: Will Hayward - 163 games and counting. Hit
• 2017
  • Pick 14: Matthew Ling - O games. Miss
• 2019
  • Pick 5 Dylan Stephens - 59 Games (43 for us) Miss
• 2020
  • Pick 4: Logan McDonald - 68 Games - Jury out
• 2021
  • Pick 19: Angus Sheldrick - 9 Games - Jury out
• 2022
  • Pick 20: Jacob Konstanty - 0 Games - Miss
• 2023
  • Pick 16: Will Green - 0 Games - Jury out.

If you look through the rankings on Draftguru, there are very few of our first round picks that are judged to have been much poorer than those around them. Another thing to consider is that most of our live first rounders have been at the tail end of the first round. Five of them in the last twenty years were outside what would be the first round in a pure draft. Of our live picks inside the top ten, we've had a bad miss (Stephens), a 200 gamer, and McDonald, who looks to be on track for 150 games or more.

I guess my question is, what does a good record with these picks over this period look like? Would definitely have been great to have nailed 2019, but who's doing a great deal better when they're starting their draft in the late teens / early 20s?

Awesome post. One of my favourites of the year.

Missed first round picks are probably like red lights. You remember them more than green lights and always think you are getting a bad run.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Probably what a lot of Lions fans thought after last year's defeat to Collingwood. Brisbane had been in the mix for a number of years but couldn't get over the hump. Now it's our turn to overcome the same narrative.

We have the talent to be premiers but we have to get our mindset right to reach the next threshold. Our GF performance was symptomatic of our first quarter debacles this year so until we fix that, it's gonna keep happening.

Our forward line could use tinkering and I hope Buller and Hamling get a shot next year at least to give the current line up a good wake up call.

This year feels like a failure but our organisation is professional enough to review and reform where required.

Geelong also had the same narrative to overcome.

It is amazing how one GF win can completely change how everyone thinks of team.

Chris Scott would probably not be considered a really good coach if he lost in 2022 (which may well have happened if Collingwood managed to get over us in the prelim).

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I don't think Heeney becoming an A+ on baller was on the radar at the start of the season.

I can't really predict who that will be to make the big jump in 2025 but let's hope there are a few who will make a big improvement.

I am hoping Mills is the big surprise packet. No one, and I mean no one in the AFL should be more motivated than him next year.

Mills in the mids also lets Rowbottom be more dynamic (so I also see Rowbottom surprising) and Heeney to play a little bit more outside. Together the three will make a mid core that is hard at it and two-way running. Each week their opposition mids will know they have played a game.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Long post incoming on the culture of the list.

With Parker moving on and Rampe nearing the end, there is a great opportunity for this list to own the Bloods culture. I suspect more than a few have felt like they have needed to adopt it, but they have also done this in the context of receiving it from a small number of ageing leaders, who also weren’t the leaders that got it started. As a result the Bloods culture got watered down and stale. A refresh is needed.

The Bloods culture was started in the context of the Swans not winning a GF in 70 odd years and the list having limited talent. So they went for grit and hardness as their defining features. And succeeded.

We are now a very different team, full of talent and pace. So what should modern day Bloods culture look like?

I think first we need to start with what the current team’s culture currently looks like (which I and many others would say is not fitting of a bloods culture). The positive characteristics that jump out to me are fighting to the end (yes, even in the GF), running hard all day, backing their skills, and caring for one another. The negative characteristics are being cocky, sporadic, soft at times, and suffering from stage fright.

The characteristics I think they should aim for going forward are:

1. Hard at it and relentless - be the hardest team to play against. Seek out contact and win the point of contact. Run harder and longer than the opposition does. This combines contact and running as two ingredients of hardness that are both non-negotiable. It also excludes the faux tough guy push and shove the team toyed around with in 2020 and 2021, and which still persists to some degree (it’s fine if this is some players natural way of being, but it has to follow and then be backed up by actual hardness).

2. Desperate in defence, across the whole team. The most joy I got in 2022 was the team’s defensive efforts. Just like SCG crowds appreciate spin bowling in cricket more than any other, we also adore defensive efforts in AFL. Rampe mentioned at the time that mantra was desperation in defence. How I feel this slid away this year, so the team needs to bring it back, but also celebrate defensive plays by our forwards as well. For example, Amartey made some terrific tackles this year (esp for a KPF) but I didn’t see the team lift around them.

3. Ruthless with our skills - punish teams brutally with silky smooth ball movement that turns opposition lapses into immediate pain. But don’t celebrate the razzmatazz, celebrate the pain and doubt it creates for the opposition. Relish dominating them and never take the foot of the throat. Never get too cute and let them back in the game. Make them feel hopeless and then hurt them (on the scoreboard) some more.

4. Deep respect for the opposition, the guernsey and the supporters. Never forget you are playing against others who have also devoted themselves to the goal premiership glory, regardless of where they sit on the ladder or their current injuries and form. Never forget the history of this great club and what it stands for. And never forget the supporters who are the most crucial element in carrying the club forward. Never be arrogant.

You might notice that each of these values references the opposition. I think a big problem with the team this year what that its focus become about itself. It first became insular, then cocky, then lost, then nervous. Better to focus on beating the opposition and winning, and what needs to be done to make this happen. This mindset makes it hard to have stage fright, as the focus is external, not internal.

 

[rustycrate]

Long post incoming on the culture of the list.

With Parker moving on and Rampe nearing the end, there is a great opportunity for this list to own the Bloods culture. I suspect more than a few have felt like they have needed to adopt it, but they have also done this in the context of receiving it from a small number of ageing leaders, who also weren’t the leaders that got it started. As a result the Bloods culture got watered down and stale. A refresh is needed.

The Bloods culture was started in the context of the Swans not winning a GF in 70 odd years and the list having limited talent. So they went for grit and hardness as their defining features. And succeeded.

We are now a very different team, full of talent and pace. So what should modern day Bloods culture look like?

I think first we need to start with what the current team’s culture currently looks like (which I and many others would say is not fitting of a bloods culture). The positive characteristics that jump out to me are fighting to the end (yes, even in the GF), running hard all day, backing their skills, and caring for one another. The negative characteristics are being cocky, sporadic, soft at times, and suffering from stage fright.

The characteristics I think they should aim for going forward are:

1. Hard at it and relentless - be the hardest team to play against. Seek out contact and win the point of contact. Run harder and longer than the opposition does. This combines contact and running as two ingredients of hardness that are both non-negotiable. It also excludes the faux tough guy push and shove the team toyed around with in 2020 and 2021, and which still persists to some degree (it’s fine if this is some players natural way of being, but it has to follow and then be backed up by actual hardness).

2. Desperate in defence, across the whole team. The most joy I got in 2022 was the team’s defensive efforts. Just like SCG crowds appreciate spin bowling in cricket more than any other, we also adore defensive efforts in AFL. Rampe mentioned at the time that mantra was desperation in defence. How I feel this slid away this year, so the team needs to bring it back, but also celebrate defensive plays by our forwards as well. For example, Amartey made some terrific tackles this year (esp for a KPF) but I didn’t see the team lift around them.

3. Ruthless with our skills - punish teams brutally with silky smooth ball movement that turns opposition lapses into immediate pain. But don’t celebrate the razzmatazz, celebrate the pain and doubt it creates for the opposition. Relish dominating them and never take the foot of the throat. Never get too cute and let them back in the game. Make them feel hopeless and then hurt them (on the scoreboard) some more.

4. Deep respect for the opposition, the guernsey and the supporters. Never forget you are playing against others who have also devoted themselves to the goal premiership glory, regardless of where they sit on the ladder or their current injuries and form. Never forget the history of this great club and what it stands for. And never forget the supporters who are the most crucial element in carrying the club forward. Never be arrogant.

You might notice that each of these values references the opposition. I think a big problem with the team this year what that its focus become about itself. It first became insular, then cocky, then lost, then nervous. Better to focus on beating the opposition and winning, and what needs to be done to make this happen. This mindset makes it hard to have stage fright, as the focus is external, not internal.

You amaze me. I wish I had your gift to write like this.

Love your posts.

Makes me think.

 

[Andyjh]

Since the improvement has to come from within, who out of the players we have currently will be able to go up another level next year?

Only ones I can see going on natural trajectory are McDonald, Roberts and maybe Mcinerney.

AFL players tend to Peak at 27, we have a lot of Talent that are younger than that. This group could be scary if they play to full potential

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

You amaze me. I wish I had your gift to write like this.

Love your posts.

Makes me think.

Thanks Rusty my man. The feeling is mutual