List Mgmt. 2024 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

 

[Kbroome]

I'm less concerned with potentially leaving "value" out there, than what increases our chances of winning a flag.

In my view, if you're in the window, which we have to operate as if we are, assuming we can rectify grand finals, then banking talent earlier in the window, while there's a good draft on offer, means you are more likely to have 1 or 2 additional players ready to impact and prolong the time you're in the window. If you have the spots and there's a few others looking more likely than not, to leave next year (Rampe, Francis, Hamling, Wicks, Corey, Mitchell, Buller), make the most of it.

Understand that but your missing the point that the F1 would be a selection next year whether that be by gathering selections for Academy players or by selecting someone. Too much chance to just have a stinker (Melbourne were a kick away from the prelims in 2023 and finished 14th this year, thats pick 5), what if we just have stinker like them. Way more value in giving up multiple F2s to get a current pick than gambling on your F1 when its valued at effectively 15-18 at the draft this year but has every chance to fall down to Pick 5 referencing Melbourne.

 

[Bloods86]

On that note, where I value picks in the Top 30 or so this year higher than next year, I've taken the liberty of trading our first 2 picks (19 and 22) + F1, for Richmond's current 20, 23, 24, with maybe a future pick swap in our favour.



If we're picking the best available KPF at our first, it's more likely Faull. Then Hannaford and Gross to boost midfield and small forward options, both big on defensive pressure and combativeness. If one of these isn't available, then Kennedy (we're keen on) or Boxshall (pulling the trigger a bit early, but lock in who we want when we can).

Assumption here is that Davis went between 23 and 27, so a medium fwd or undersized, mobile KPF option at Pick 40ish. Murphy (190cm) for pure goal output, McKenzie (192) for a running 3rd tall type, West (193) for a contested 3rd tall type (but also quick), Sulzberger (187) a bit smaller as a medium forward / mid option.

With our last pick or a rookie selection, depending on Cochran bid, I've gone some late options for KPDs who aren't just interceptors, can lockdown. Dennis probably doesn't last beyond the 50s, so the others might be more likely.



With this one, I've prioritised Davis (med fwd / mid), still gone with one of Hannaford or Gross (in that order) to boost small fwd/mid options, and based on needs, a contested KPF with Sims (who'll last a bit longer than less contested types Faull, J Whitlock etc). Inside mid at Pick 40, though Boxshall might be gone (Hargrave helps with small fwd depth too), before taking a punt on MacTaggart to replace Cunningham / Fox in a few years.

 

[Kbroome]

On that note, where I value picks in the Top 30 or so this year higher than next year, I've taken the liberty of trading our first 2 picks (19 and 22) + F1, for Richmond's current 20, 23, 24, with maybe a future pick swap in our favour.

View attachment 2166013

If we're picking the best available KPF at our first, it's more likely Faull. Then Hannaford and Gross to boost midfield and small forward options, both big on defensive pressure and combativeness. If one of these isn't available, then Kennedy (we're keen on) or Boxshall (pulling the trigger a bit early, but lock in who we want when we can).

Assumption here is that Davis went between 23 and 27, so a medium fwd or undersized, mobile KPF option at Pick 40ish. Murphy (190cm) for pure goal output, McKenzie (192) for a running 3rd tall type, West (193) for a contested 3rd tall type (but also quick), Sulzberger (187) a bit smaller as a medium forward / mid option.

With our last pick or a rookie selection, depending on Cochran bid, I've gone some late options for KPDs who aren't just interceptors, can lockdown. Dennis probably doesn't last beyond the 50s, so the others might be more likely.

View attachment 2166020

With this one, I've prioritised Davis (med fwd / mid), still gone with one of Hannaford or Gross (in that order) to boost small fwd/mid options, and based on needs, a contested KPF with Sims (who'll last a bit longer than less contested types Faull, J Whitlock etc). Inside mid at Pick 40, though Boxshall might be gone (Hargrave helps with small fwd depth too), before taking a punt on MacTaggart to replace Cunningham / Fox in a few years.

So Sydney trade back in the draft and have to give up more capital in terms of directly higher selections across all 3 picks as F1 will be higher than pick 24.

 

[Bloods86]

Understand that but your missing the point that the F1 would be a selection next year whether that be by gathering selections for Academy players or by selecting someone. Too much chance to just have a stinker (Melbourne were a kick away from the prelims in 2023 and finished 14th this year, thats pick 5), what if we just have stinker like them. Way more value in giving up multiple F2s to get a current pick than gambling on your F1 when its valued at effectively 15-18 at the draft this year but has every chance to fall down to Pick 5 referencing Melbourne.

I get it's a risk, not missing the point at all, but the club should be operating on the basis that we're a Top 4 side again. We don't have multiple F2s to use until next year.

If we need picks next year for academy matching, then we have 2 future drafts to take from.

I get that we don't want to plunder all future draft picks, unlike say Port has been doing, but in what is supposed to be a good draft in the Top 30/40, rather than a draft that has a strong first round and then drops off, I think we should lock in some players early. We've opened up senior list spots because we think it's a good draft, so make the most of it.

 

[Bloods86]

So Sydney trade back in the draft and have to give up more capital in terms of directly higher selections across all 3 picks as F1 will be higher than pick 24.

I think you're still missing the point that I value a pick in the Top 30/40 this draft, higher than I would the equivalent in next year's.

So yes, that's absolutely what I'm doing. With a future pick swap if we think this is unfair on us.

I'm not trying to win the draft points league or retain "draft capital" for the sake of it, I'm trying to build the best team and win flags. At least hypothetically anyway, because the Swans keep ignoring my applications.

 

[Kbroome]

I think you're still missing the point that I value a pick in the Top 30/40 this draft, slightly higher than I would the equivalent in next year's.

So yes, that's absolutely what I'm doing. With a future pick swap if we think this is unfair on us.

I'm not trying to win the draft points league or retain "draft capital" for the sake of it, I'm trying to build the best team and win flags. At least hypothetically anyway, because the Swans keep ignoring my applications.

These guys haven't even played yet and we are valuing a doubling if not tripling difference between this draft and other drafts. Everyone i have spoken to has said that the defining of this draft is that it is deep and deep with role players but not genuine stars. I would not be risking a pick 5-15 for a player that is ranked 25 when next year you can turn that pick into multiple picks whether that be solely 2025 picks or stretch it into 2026.

 

[Kiama Chris]

The Age have predicted us taking Faull and Hannaford with our first picks

https://archive.md/Hwltw

A lot of them have us taking a KPF and a small or medium forward with our first two.

 

[Kbroome]

A lot of them have us taking a KPF and a small or medium forward with our first two.

As long as we don't select a KPD or a skinny flanker in the first round ill be happy

 

[Bloods86]

And thats a dumb decision. These guys haven't even played yet and we are valuing a doubling if not tripling difference between this draft and other drafts. Everyone i have spoken to has said that the defining of this draft is that it is deep and deep with role players but not genuine stars. I would not be risking a pick 5-15 for a player that is ranked 25 when next year you can turn that pick into multiple picks whether that be solely 2025 picks or stretch it into 2026.

Cool, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion.

It is your assumption though that our F1 could be Pick 5-15, whereas I think it'll be 15+. Our first this year is 19 and likely to blow out to early 20s, so even if we drop into the bottom half of the 8, I'd take that for an extra pick in the 20s this year (and again with a future pick swap if needed).

And as I've said several times, timing matters. We're in the window now, bank the talent you can now, to address needs you have or will have, sooner rather than later. If there's a slight trade off in quality, so be it.

Role players can win you premierships.

 

[Membling]

Pass on any trading of our f1 unless it materially improves our draft position.

We have Carmichael and Chamberlain who currently sit in the top 40 selections next year.

Plus no idea how we will bounce back from this year.

 

[Kbroome]

Cool, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion.

It is your assumption though that our F1 could be Pick 5-15, whereas I think it'll be 15+. Our first this year is 19 and likely to blow out to early 20s, so even if we drop into the bottom half of the 8, I'd take that for an extra pick in the 20s this year (and again with a future pick swap if needed).

And as I've said several times, timing matters. We're in the window now, bank the talent you can now, to address needs you have or will have, sooner rather than later. If there's a slight trade off in quality, so be it.

Role players can win you premierships.

So your willing to give up pick 24 for pick 25 as a best case scenario but potentially we have a horrific year and follow trends after a big GF loss and miss the 8 and hand away a pick 10 for pick 25. That is horrific either way and Melbourne have shown that the worse case scenario i just outlined could be worse. Just because your impatient with getting players in shouldn't mean that we create a MASSIVE gamble in which we can only loose we can't win from it

 

[RUNVS]

As long as we don't select a KPD or a skinny flanker in the first round ill be happy

We need a KPD though. We need a KPD and inside mid desperately. Those are our two most needed positions.

 

[Kbroome]

We need a KPD though. We need a KPD and inside mid desperately. Those are our two most needed positions.

The KPD is Cochran. We have enough depth for next year with Rampe McCartin Melican Hamling Francis Snell Edwards and Cochran. Adding another KPD who will take 2-3 years of development and missing out on a medium forward or midfielder who can impact now would just be dumb. Our VFL literally is already slated to be 9-10 KP players on it which is a massive side when our seniors side has only 7 and its considered to "tall"

 

[Bloods86]

So your willing to give up pick 24 for pick 25 as a best case scenario but potentially we have a horrific year and follow trends after a big GF loss and miss the 8 and hand away a pick 10 for pick 25. That is horrific either way and Melbourne have shown that the worse case scenario i just outlined could be worse. Just because your impatient with getting players in shouldn't mean that we create a MASSIVE gamble in which we can only loose we can't win from it

We can absolutely win from it.

We know the players in this draft better than next year's. We'd be getting a player in the 20s instead of a late 4th or 5th round pick. They would have an additional year of development while we are in the window.

As I said, you're entitled to your opinion, but we clearly have different levels of optimism in terms of ladder position next year. Do I think we'll win the flag, highly unlikely even if we made the GF again, but I see us around the Top 4 again.

I just don't think we need to take an overly cautious approach, as if we have an awful squad all of a sudden that will massively drop off.

I think we're in a better place with the list, at least in the areas where we had big injury issues in say 2023, after a heavy GF defeat.

 

[Bloods86]

We need a KPD though. We need a KPD and inside mid desperately. Those are our two most needed positions.

I think we need another one or two by end of 2025 given likely exits, so common sense says if you're drafting one, do it sooner... but we do at least have 2 that might be ready for some games next year. In terms of key forward depth, we have a hobbled Buller (still have hopes for him) and medium forward, we have none, as examples. I still think we pick a KPD in addition to Cochran, but maybe late/rookie.

Agree on inside mid drafting, should get one.

 

[RUNVS]

I think we need another one or two by end of 2025 given likely exits, so common sense says if you're drafting one, do it sooner... but we do at least have 2 that might be ready for some games next year. In terms of key forward depth, we have a hobbled Buller (still have hopes for him) and medium forward, we have none, as examples.

Agree on inside mid drafting, should get one.

Also I really really hope I am wrong but with Paddy being retired because of concussion, and remembering a year or two ago when Tom spend a month or two away from the best 22 due to a concussion of his own I am very aware that Tom's career could come to a crashing holt in any game. We can't rely on having Tom McCartin in the team for the next 7 or 8 years.

Again though, I hope I am wrong.

 

[Bloods86]

Also I really really hope I am wrong but with Paddy being retired because of concussion, and remembering a year or two ago when Tom spend a month or two away from the best 22 due to a concussion of his own I am very aware that Tom's career could come to a crashing holt in any game. We can't rely on having Tom McCartin in the team for the next 7 or 8 years.

Again though, I hope I am wrong.

Yeah, and you wouldn't want to pin hopes on Melican playing 20+ games every year either.

 

[Kbroome]

We can absolutely win from it.

We know the players in this draft better than next year's. We'd be getting a player in the 20s instead of a late 4th or 5th round pick. They would have an additional year of development while we are in the window.

As I said, you're entitled to your opinion, but we clearly have different levels of optimism in terms of ladder position next year. Do I think we'll win the flag, highly unlikely even if we made the GF again, but I see us around the Top 4 again.

I just don't think we need to take an overly cautious approach, as if we have an awful squad all of a sudden that will massively drop off.

I think we're in a better place with the list, at least in the areas where we had big injury issues in say 2023, after a heavy GF defeat.

My only thing is that you have made two assumptions i don't agree with
1. That this draft will 100% be better than drafts in the future so much to be willing to risk a top 5-10 pick for a pick 25. Effectively risking a top 5-10 player in the next draft for the 20th best player in this draft.

2. Only be selecting a player in the 40-50s. If we trade our F1 this year then that means we have to use our 2026 to get points for the 2025 boys and you start a cycle. So no you aren't exchanging an F1 for a rd 1 pick instead of a 40s-50s selection your just getting that rd1 now instead of in one of the next few years.

I do respect your point i just think there is too much risk if we have a stinker of a season just to grab say an extra development big or a small forward

 

[Bloods86]

My only thing is that you have made two assumptions i don't agree with
1. That this draft will 100% be better than drafts in the future so much to be willing to risk a top 5-10 pick for a pick 25. Effectively risking a top 5-10 player in the next draft for the 20th best player in this draft.

2. Only be selecting a player in the 40-50s. If we trade our F1 this year then that means we have to use our 2026 to get points for the 2025 boys and you start a cycle. So no you aren't exchanging an F1 for a rd 1 pick instead of a 40s-50s selection your just getting that rd1 now instead of in one of the next few years.

I do respect your point i just think there is too much risk if we have a stinker of a season just to grab say an extra development big or a small forward

1. Will it be better, unsure, but the belief is that there are plenty of good players in the Top 40 this year, even if they aren't stars. You can win premierships with a good team, and less stars than the opposition. If you ignore anything else I've said about timing, windows and an extra year of development, then yeah I'm advocating a risk being taken, albeit likely smaller than your dire predictions.

2. My point is we've opened up senior spots, so we are looking likely to take at least 4 players at the national draft excl Cochran, maybe even 5 if he slips to the end or rookie draft (unlikely). I'd like that current 4th late pick (50s or beyond) which we appear set to use, to be in the 20s. And yes I'm aware we'd be forgoing an F1 if we trade it... not sure why that's being explained to me.

 

[Kbroome]

1. Will it be better, unsure, but the belief is that there are plenty of good players in the Top 40 this year, even if they aren't stars. You can win premierships with a good team, and less stars than the opposition. If you ignore anything else I've said about timing, windows and an extra year of development, then yeah I'm advocating a risk being taken, albeit likely smaller than your dire predictions.

2. My point is we've opened up senior spots, so we are looking likely to take at least 4 players at the national draft excl Cochran, maybe even 5 if he slips to the end or rookie draft (unlikely). I'd like that current 4th late pick (50s or beyond) which we appear set to use, to be in the 20s. And yes I'm aware we'd be forgoing an F1 if we trade it... not sure why that's being explained to me.

All im saying with regards to point 2 is that we are going to get that first round selection whether it be in 2024 or 2027.

I just think that many have said that the depth of the draft is where the value is and thus later picks are where the undervalue comes from in this draft not in the picks in the mid teens to early 20s.

Therefore it is more valuable to still have our F1 and picks in the 40s-60s than giving away our F1 for pick 25, but in the end thats just my opinion on how i view getting maximum value out of the draft.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Pass on any trading of our f1 unless it materially improves our draft position.

We have Carmichael and Chamberlain who currently sit in the top 40 selections next year.

Plus no idea how we will bounce back from this year.

Edwards was rated a top 20 pick too. Yeah righto. Rather take another top 25 pick that helps us now

 

[Membling]

Edwards was rated a top 20 pick too. Yeah righto. Rather take another top 25 pick that helps us now

A 2024 draftee is unlikely to help us now

 

[LukeParkerno1]

A 2024 draftee is unlikely to help us now

Depends on the type I disagree and you know I love you

 

[Kbroome]

Depends on the type I disagree and you know I love you

How much better is a small forward going to be from Cleary or Hanily etc.
How much better is a KP player going to be as they take 2-3 years to develop
Usually the high impact players are the mids or wingers and we sure as hell don't need a winger

So the only player that could really impact is a tough gritty on baller or potentially a medium forward. Of which the hope would be that we grab a medium forward early anyway.

Just hope out of the draft what ever route we go it shows that we are intent on change the forward structure, whether that be to an extra small or a second medium just hope we go and focus on that end of the field

 

[LukeParkerno1]

How much better is a small forward going to be from Cleary or Hanily etc.
How much better is a KP player going to be as they take 2-3 years to develop
Usually the high impact players are the mids or wingers and we sure as hell don't need a winger

So the only player that could really impact is a tough gritty on baller or potentially a medium forward. Of which the hope would be that we grab a medium forward early anyway.

Just hope out of the draft what ever route we go it shows that we are intent on change the forward structure, whether that be to an extra small or a second medium just hope we go and focus on that end of the field

They will be a lot better than Cleary who is an out an out midfielder