List Mgmt. 2024 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Realistically teams that would trade in
NM, WCE (Theirs but not HAW), STK, ESS (both them and Melb selections), Adelaide, GCS

Think every other team is a massive top 8 threat and thus its a breakeven trade

Wouldn’t want GCS or Adelaide straight out they are coming top 10, they should based on their draw. NM and Essendon’s one agree. Melbourne I’m 50/50 on they could significantly improve. WCE agree doubt they would trade their f1 though as they may need the capital next off season

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I wouldn't necessarily be doing it as a straight swap.

If Geelong offered us f1 + 45 for our second selection, I'd think about it. Would that be enough? maybe not, but I would listen.

There are heaps of scenarios I could list that I would listen to, but we aren't going to get North or Essendon's F1 for a pick in the mid 20s.

The three main teams I would be looking at would be Geelong, Hawthorn (the carlton f1) and West Coast (the hawthorn f1). I wouldn't be doing any of them as a straight swap.

And I don't think any of us know for sure where the bids are likely to land next year, but there is a clearly a chance that we are going to have to match multiple bids in the first round.

Cats one wouldn’t even be in the ballpark. Their f1 is 30+ next year with all the bidding. North tried to get pick 13 for their f1 and it wasn’t enough. Shows you the going rate this year. A pick in the 20’s is worth a f1. Why would you even want the Hawks 1 they are going to be top 8, top 4. Why are you wanting f1’s that we can’t use next year? It’s a significantly better draft this year.

 

[Kbroome]

I think the clubs you listed are the only ones that aren't realistic.

It clearly has to be a club that is happy to gamble that they will be good next year.

NM, WCE (Theirs but not HAW), STK, ESS (both them and Melb selections), Adelaide, GCS are the teams i said

North only have #2 and #62 this draft atm are wanting to get back into the draft for talls especially the ones around our selections

WCE just simply need players that aren't midfielders as they already have quite a few and also have brought in small/medium flankers this offseason

STK are looking at only having 3 KPFs going into next year and by trading back in would allow them to take two top quality mids like Smilie and Langford with their picks 7 and 8 whilst also getting a Whitlock brother given they lost Battle Membrey, Campbell, Hayes Van Es this off season.

Ess have said they want to get back into this draft after matching Kako

Adelaide are so poor with their slow midfield

GCS have said they want to get back into this draft after matching Lombard

 

[tombomb]

NM, WCE (Theirs but not HAW), STK, ESS (both them and Melb selections), Adelaide, GCS are the teams i said

North only have #2 and #62 this draft atm are wanting to get back into the draft for talls especially the ones around our selections

WCE just simply need players that aren't midfielders as they already have quite a few and also have brought in small/medium flankers this offseason

STK are looking at only having 3 KPFs going into next year and by trading back in would allow them to take two top quality mids like Smilie and Langford with their picks 7 and 8 whilst also getting a Whitlock brother given they lost Battle Membrey, Campbell, Hayes Van Es this off season.

Ess have said they want to get back into this draft after matching Kako

Adelaide are so poor with their slow midfield

GCS have said they want to get back into this draft after matching Lombard

All of those teams may have there own reasons for wanting to get back into this draft, but that doesn't make it realistic that they are going to hand over a potential top 5 pick in next year's draft for a pick in the 20s in this year's draft.

If any of them are willing to trade their f1, they will do it with Richmond or GWS well before our selections.

 

[tombomb]

Cats one wouldn’t even be in the ballpark. Their f1 is 30+ next year with all the bidding. North tried to get pick 13 for their f1 and it wasn’t enough. Shows you the going rate this year. A pick in the 20’s is worth a f1. Why would you even want the Hawks 1 they are going to be top 8, top 4. Why are you wanting f1’s that we can’t use next year? It’s a significantly better draft this year.

Every year people say next year's draft is no good. Last year GWS preferred Phoenix Gothard over taking West Coast's f1.

Why would I want Geelong or Hawthorn's f1? There are two reasons.

Firstly, we are potentially going to need a lot of points next year and I would rather plan for it now than get into the dangerous game of trading out future selections in order to match bids. As you well know, the bidding system changes dramatically next year and we could have three bids to match in the top 30.

As for Geelong and Hawthorn, they are no certainty to make finals, let alone top 4. But they are the exact kinds of teams who will be expecting to do well and could potentially overpay for a pick in the 20s. Hawthorn don't have their own future pick to trade unfortunately.

I am not saying I would be calling other clubs trying to get them to do something, but I would be keeping an open mind.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

WCE just simply need players that aren't midfielders as they already have quite a few and also have brought in small/medium flankers this offseason

WCE main priority is a high end midfielder. They really only have Harley and maybe Hewett coming through. They will likely take a mid at (whichever is available out of Reid, Lindsay, Travaglia, Allan). It is possible that North offer up their F1 so they can get Armstrong/Shanahan/Trainor. In next year's draft WCE will go for a midfielder again, whether that be Chad (if he seeks a trade), or the best mid available. That's assuming our man Clarke is rational. To think WCE will give their F1 for your 1st this year.... I wouldn't have thought there is any chance of this happening. That would be even dumber than the Baker trade.

 

[Callipygian]

Every year people say next year's draft is no good. Last year GWS preferred Phoenix Gothard over taking West Coast's f1.

Except for all the years that they say next year's draft is much better.

****

Most mock drafts are a waste of time, or at least akin to listening to other people's tips. They're just people who have little clue bloviating for clicks. They provide no illumination as to what clubs will do.* Draft rankings are much more interesting.

* Cal Twomey is the exception. He's not an especially great judge of talent and so I don't rate his form guides much different than the rest but his phantom drafts are a different story. He works very hard and has lots of contacts which allows him to create the singularly best mock draft out there - but only very shortly before the actual draft happens.

 

[ShireSwan]

Anyone for two Whitlocks? This guy's onboard.

Would be very interesting - and good for retention prospects picking two brothers from Murray Bushrangers.
I'd like it just for the story arc tbh. Though god knows we desperately need a small forward able to come in and kick crafty goals at the foot of the pack if Papley goes down - and even if he doesn't/

TBH if they were on the board and we grabbed both, I'd sell our first next year to grab a small like Dattoli if still available. Put our cards on the table and go for it over the next 2-3 years. Next years draft can worry about itself and if we need draft capital to get academy kids then sell the following year's first to make that happen.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Every year people say next year's draft is no good. Last year GWS preferred Phoenix Gothard over taking West Coast's f1.

Why would I want Geelong or Hawthorn's f1? There are two reasons.

Firstly, we are potentially going to need a lot of points next year and I would rather plan for it now than get into the dangerous game of trading out future selections in order to match bids. As you well know, the bidding system changes dramatically next year and we could have three bids to match in the top 30.

As for Geelong and Hawthorn, they are no certainty to make finals, let alone top 4. But they are the exact kinds of teams who will be expecting to do well and could potentially overpay for a pick in the 20s. Hawthorn don't have their own future pick to trade unfortunately.

I am not saying I would be calling other clubs trying to get them to do something, but I would be keeping an open mind.

It’s no surprise next years is not as good it’s heavily diluted due to the bidding academy, F/S and NGA. That Cats f1 is 30 plus, it’s a terrible deal. We hold the aces, not them you are wanting to sell a prime asset this year for half the price it should be.

I know the bidding system changes (thank goodness). We can trade 2 years of firsts if need be, we won’t need to anyway.

 

[tombomb]

It’s no surprise next years is not as good it’s heavily diluted due to the bidding academy, F/S and NGA. That Cats f1 is 30 plus, it’s a terrible deal. We hold the aces, not them you are wanting to sell a prime asset this year for half the price it should be.

I know the bidding system changes (thank goodness). We can trade 2 years of firsts if need be, we won’t need to anyway.

Yeah... Geelong's future 1st isn't going to be in the 30s.

 

[Ticky009]

Final stretch everyone - 3 Days to Go!!!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah... Geelong's future 1st isn't going to be in the 30s.

Yea it will you always assume on the high end so they come 6th and they should with that draw…there’s a good 10 plus buds before then that’s pick 25 on a best case. Awful deal. If it’s for a f1 it has to be one BEFORE pick 10 not after it, makes no sense other

 

[anotherletdown]

Final stretch everyone - 3 Days to Go!!!

Yawn.... this year is a dud.

I'd far prefer to take 4 flyers in 30/40's than the 2 we have in the 20's. Don't trust us with picks, so blowing 30's and 40's doesn't hurt so much

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Final stretch everyone - 3 Days to Go!!!

Don’t forget the rookie and PSD and then the supplementary draft period

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yawn.... this year is a dud.

I'd far prefer to take 4 flyers in 30/40's than the 2 we have in the 20's. Don't trust us with picks, so blowing 30's and 40's doesn't hurt so much

Take the two in the 20’s suits our needs

 

[tombomb]

Yea it will you always assume on the high end so they come 6th and they should with that draw…there’s a good 10 plus buds before then that’s pick 25 on a best case. Awful deal. If it’s for a f1 it has to be one BEFORE pick 10 not after it, makes no sense other

If Geelong finish 6th and there are 10 father son/academy bids in the first 20 selections, which is ridiculous and won't happen, that pick would still be at worst 23.

A long way off the 30s.

Not to mention for that scenario to happen, three of those bids would have to be on Sydney players in which case we will be very grateful that we traded for an extra 1st.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If Geelong finish 6th and there are 10 father son/academy bids in the first 20 selections, which is ridiculous and won't happen, that pick would still be at worst 23.

A long way off the 30s.

Not to mention for that scenario to happen, three of those bids would have to be on Sydney players in which case we will be very grateful that we traded for an extra 1st.

That’s if they don’t come 3rd and have you seen their draw it’s the easiest one bar Carlton!

So we trade out to purely match bids yeah heavy pass. Rather trade our f1 out and have more this year than less. What happens when 2 of those players fall off a cliff like Edwards did? We’ve traded a top 25 pick in a significantly better draft out. Worry about next year then you should only trade out if you don’t rate the guys. We actually need more guys than less this year

 

[bedford]

Final stretch everyone - 3 Days to Go!!!

Praise the lord and for once i love that clip

 

[Membling]

All the first round pick blowing out to 30 seems a bit of a reach to me.

Right now, would have Uwland, Addinsall and Annabel as likely top 20

Patterson, Carmichael and Chamberlain as maybes

At most, pushes round 1 to around 21. FAs that would likely trigger band 1 in Bont, Allen and LDU so at most 24 at this point in time. Just IMO.

 

[bedford]

Are we there yet , i feel for LP1 and his apprentice

 

[Kbroome]

All the first round pick blowing out to 30 seems a bit of a reach to me.

Right now, would have Uwland, Addinsall and Annabel as likely top 20

Patterson, Carmichael and Chamberlain as maybes

At most, pushes round 1 to around 21. FAs that would likely trigger band 1 in Bont, Allen and LDU so at most 24 at this point in time. Just IMO.

Have you forgotten about father sons with McGuanne for Collingwood etc I reckon next year will be roughly 30 which is on par with most years and thats purely because the past couple of seasons have had more FA band 1/2 compensations in comparison to what will happen next year as the newish CBA becomes older it becomes tougher to give players contract hikes into the top 5-10% to hit band 1

 

[anotherletdown]

Take the two in the 20’s suits our needs

We have way, way more than 2 needs - Small defender, KPD, small forward, medium forward and a ticker....

 

[Membling]

Have you forgotten about father sons with McGuanne for Collingwood etc I reckon next year will be roughly 30 which is on par with most years and thats purely because the past couple of seasons have had more FA band 1/2 compensations in comparison to what will happen next year as the newish CBA becomes older it becomes tougher to give players contract hikes into the top 5-10% to hit band 1

So that is another one making it 25.

Lots of water to go under the bridge.

All it means for us is that we attempt to get ahead of a bid to maximise first rounders

 

[Kbroome]

So that is another one making it 25.

Lots of water to go under the bridge.

All it means for us is that we attempt to get ahead of a bid to maximise first rounders

Yep as you say almost too much time to plan for much at this point but i think having a full array of our firsts is the best course of action and if we get a dumb good trade offer for our second first in this years draft then we take it but other than that keep it simple because when you start to play the shenanigan game you usually stuff yourself over