Preview 2024 Elimination Final Carlton vs Brisbane Saturday 7th September 7:30PM AEST @ The Gabba

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

AFL team news: Blues welcome back six

Tom De Koning is one of half a dozen of Carlton inclusions for the elimination final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

6 Changes :-

 

[Stamos]

Just play match-fit and healthy players.

That’s easier said than done

 

[Blue Reaper]

That’s easier said than done

Yeah, true.

 

[Benaly28]

After tomorrow’s training session it might be a little more clearer.


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[Accidental genius]

Reckon if they stick Doc in the side that would be a major gamble.

Yeah he is a champion but without match fitness itll make it very difficult for him to be of value

I'd like to see lord and binns and moir continue

Lord has been amazing, playing like hes been in the seniors all year.

Reckon Moir can run out a full match if he plays around near the goal mouth as he did last couple of weeks.

Binns was showing some signs of fatigue late in last game but reckon hed be right against brissie too.

Kemp up forward again too - will be interesting how he goes if Charlie comes in and takes a couple of the key defenders away with him.

...and I am hoping they dont go with martin either...too much of an injury risk

 

[windows1]

I would be stunned if they picked Martin or Cerra.

 

[JustaBattler]

I would be stunned if they picked Martin or Cerra.

Cerra would be in the mix if he trains well enough - Martin I suspect is finished at Carlton.

 

[Tjblues]

I’m not sure I understand those who wish to be cautious with our injured players.

Doc aside, what are we saving them for? There should be no consideration for future games, provided they aren’t risking serious injury.

It’s win or go home, might as well go all in

I guess I should interchange the word understand with agree in this post.

Appreciate those who’ve responded and the reasons, but I just don’t see us winning this game by taking in the kids.

They’ve been great, but we’ve had a good win over a terrible west coast, and a close loss to the 14th placed Saints. That is form that gets us blown away at the Gabba.

If we take some injury risks and they don’t pay off we at least gave ourselves a chance

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I guess I should interchange the word understand with agree in this post.

Appreciate those who’ve responded and the reasons, but I just don’t see us winning this game by taking in the kids.

They’ve been great, but we’ve had a good win over a terrible west coast, and a close loss to the 14th placed Saints. That is form that gets us blown away at the Gabba.

If we take some injury risks and they don’t pay off we at least gave ourselves a chance

I expect they'll be trying to find the right balance

 

[blues4flag]

I would be stunned if they picked Martin or Cerra.

Likewise. Cerra struggles first up and lacks any confidence in his body.

Think Doc is a much better bet than either of those two. We've struggled with D50 organisation and D50 stoppages all year. Doc makes us instantly stronger in that area with his footy smarts and leadership.

 

[windows1]

Line by line:

Back 7 is set and not injury dependent. Weiters Young MCG Cowan Newman Saad and Ollie

Mids 7 almost set and it’s either TDK or Pitto + Cripps Walsh Lord Hewett Acrws Binns

Forward line 8 is where all the variability is. IMO certainties are: CC McKay Kemp Williams Cinc Lij

Last 3 spots (including sub) to come from Motlop Doc Kennedy Fantasia Durdin. Kennedy to be at least a certain sub.

———-
So two to pick from Doc Fantasia Durdin and Motlop. Gut feel is the risk they will take is on Doc which then makes it less likely Durdin or Fantasia get a game due to their recent injuries. Fantasia barely played in rhe last quarter vs Saints. Not a good sign for him. Durdin shoulder hanging together with sticky tape. Super high risk. Doc is just a very good runner and very experienced. Good candidate for a high half forward role to curb their half back run. Can play wing cover too. Temptation will just be too high.

Plus TDk if fit enough else just Pitto.

 

[Juddrockz]

Motlop if selected needs to lift. He's been horrible these past few weeks

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The issue is the risk of taking players like Martin, Cerra etc and they break down again (during the game) leaving you down 3 or 4 players, stuffing up rotations etc. Instead of playing a fit 19 year old like Lord who is more likely to give you 100% for 100 minutes of the game.

Cerra a definite no.... when he came back last time he was miles off the pace.

Martin's injury was a result of the collision with Fogarty....

If he's good to go, you play him.

 

[Accidental genius]

Line by line:

Back 7 is set and not injury dependent. Weiters Young MCG Cowan Newman Saad and Ollie

Mids 7 almost set and it’s either TDK or Pitto + Cripps Walsh Lord Hewett Acrws Binns

Forward line 8 is where all the variability is. IMO certainties are: CC McKay Kemp Williams Cinc Lij

Last 3 spots (including sub) to come from Motlop Doc Kennedy Fantasia Durdin. Kennedy to be at least a certain sub.

———-
So two to pick from Doc Fantasia Durdin and Motlop. Gut feel is the risk they will take is on Doc which then makes it less likely Durdin or Fantasia get a game due to their recent injuries. Fantasia barely played in rhe last quarter vs Saints. Not a good sign for him. Durdin shoulder hanging together with sticky tape. Super high risk. Doc is just a very good runner and very experienced. Good candidate for a high half forward role to curb their half back run. Can play wing cover too. Temptation will just be too high.

Plus TDk if fit enough else just Pitto.

Agree with everything except selection of doc. I’d be so nervous if he was to play.

He’s best bet is to start playing start of next season…better for him.

 

[gbatman]

I'd play Martin before I'd play Cerra. Can't trust Cerra to perform. I'm backing Lord to give us more than an underdone Cerra. Even if we got as far as the grand final, I would only play Cerra if there was an injury.

Martin would probably perform, but will his body hold up? Gee if he was able to play he would make a difference.

No hesitation playing TDK, McKay, McGovern and Curnow.

 

[gbatman]

If the injured ones are good to go, I think we will pick our best 22. We know that a conservative team isn't good enough to go far in finals. If we pick the reliable ones, it's probably not good enough. I think we will roll the dice and go similar to this.

Newman Young McGovern
Saad Weitering Docherty
Acres Cripps O Hollands
Williams Kemp Moir
Martin Curnow McKay
DeKoning Walsh Hewett
Cowan Lord Kennedy E Hollands
Cincotta
Motlop Pittonet Fantasia

If it stays fit, it can go a long way into finals. If not then it wasn't supposed to be.

I'm happy to take a risk here. Get through this one and we are a real threat with this team.

Get through this one with a game into Martin, Docherty, Lord and Moir and we go into the next one stronger.

I think we need to be brave here and pick a side that has the talent to go all the way.

See if we can't have another winning streak like last year.

Is it fit enough? Maybe. It's talented enough.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Cerra would be in the mix if he trains well enough - Martin I suspect is finished at Carlton.

If Martin can train well, he’d be the prefect sub.

 

[JustaBattler]

If Martin can train well, he’d be the prefect sub.

WOuld be great if he was good to go that's for sure:

Kemp Charlie Williams
EHollands Harry Martin
Cincotta

Would brutalise the F***er banana benders

 

[BlueBlood15]

The injury report will be very interesting reading this week. In saying that, I could see us listing 8 players as a test to throw off Brisbane.

My gut feel is Charlie, Harry, Gov and Williams are most likely to come in. Each has only missed a few weeks.

The maybes are TDK and Doc. I suspect TDK might be losing his battle to be declared fit in time, but if he’s ready to go, he should play. I suspect Doc might be medically cleared to play so then it becomes a risk vs reward consideration.

The unlikeliest seem to be Cerra and Martin. Both have broken down continuously all year. You can probably add Boyd to this group who might not be enough of an upgrade on an incumbent to justify selection.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

WOuld be great if he was good to go that's for sure:

Kemp Charlie Williams
EHollands Harry Martin
Cincotta

Would brutalise the F***er banana benders

Given Owies out I’d throw Motlop into that mix initially - that lot would give their backs a coronary.

 

[Manhattanite]

If Martin can train well, he’d be the prefect sub.

Martin absolutely can be the sub who can change a game in a quarter

But I think Moir can only play as sub if Voss still thinks he can’t play out four quarters (which is risky in case of an early injury)

And Doch would also be a good sub option instead of Martin but for different reasons

So we may have 3 good sub options but ideally would have had all 3 in the 22 under better circumstances



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[Accidental genius]

TDK, Charlie, Harry, Gov and Williams are the key players that would make a significant diff

tdk prolly unlikeliest of these 5 to miss

no owies this week but williams in makes a huge diff

think we will have a reasonable strong side going in

 

[Revenant1965]

If Martin was to play, I'd rather he be in starting 22. That way, if he breaks down we still have coverage, and if another player (say midfielder) was injuries early on, then would be taking a risk. But just me...

 

[gbatman]

I think being really thin on the flanks is why we may see Docherty and Martin.

The only two players I have seen who look like genuine half forward flankers on our list are Martin and Moir. E Hollands and Williams have good ability to play there. Fantasia is ok. The rest are poor.

Same goes with half back. Who do we have on our list who are elite half backs? Docherty and Saad are AA half backs. You need really good players there to win the flag. Newman is good but not elite. Cincotta is decent. Cowan is up and coming. Boyd is decent. You see what I mean. It was Brisbane's half back line that won them the game over us last year. I think we will dearly want to return the favour.

It brings delimmers though. Docherty would be coming back early and from a long lay off from playing.

Our half forwards. We want a half forward to play the plus 1 role which requires a lot of hard two way running and getting involved with our defensive structure. E Hollands for sure but Williams and Moir may not be suited to this role. Which is ok. I think we can navigate around this. The question is who is the wing rotation? Does Binns stay in because of this or will Docherty rotate with the wingers and we rotate the wings through the backline? Could we give Cowan some wing minutes?

Newman Young McGovern
Saad Weitering Docherty
Acres Cripps O Hollands
Williams Kemp E Hollands
Martin Curnow McKay
DeKoning Walsh Hewett
Cowan Lord Kennedy Moir
Cincotta
Motlop Pittonet Fantasia

How I would use this team. Rotations are key.

E Hollands plays the plus one role for most of the game. He's really well suited to that. Plays half forward, gets up around the midfield, pushes back into defence at times runs hard forward.

Kennedy Lord Walsh Hewett and Cripps are solid rotations for the middle. Kennedy to spend some time forward giving guys like Martin, Williams and Moir a chop out. Even the talls when they come off.

Docherty to play defence but he will spend more time playing deep so he and Newman to spend time switching roles.

Acres and Hollands will need to have high TOG. I would like to see them rotate with Cowan and Docherty if he is fit enough. But the other one who could relieve the wingers a bit is Walsh with Lord taking more of Walsh's minutes in the middle.

Martin, Williams, Moir and Kennedy to rotate with each other. There could be a lack of fitness in the forward group. This does worry me if we can't cover their run. But the option to that is Fantasia and this doesn't overly excite me.

Cincotta as the sub is a really good option. He can be a high impact player, tough, weapon of a kick and can really run. I also feel comfortable with him because he can play in any third. Docherty goes down or needs to come off because he blows up, Cincotta is ideal. Martin or Moir need to come off. He's a good fit.

Tactically I would like to see Kemp playing high up at CHF and Curnow and McKay deep. The reason being is that this would force them to run harder. The congestion would have to go to the full forward line, not half forward, so more harder running for them. This also opens up our half forward line. Really clears this out which should give our half forwards room to do their thing. Will create a lot of one on ones for Kemp, Martin, Williams and Moir and I am backing them in every time to win this ball. If their opponents are looking to drop off to cover our two big keys, we should see players at half forward on their own. This IMO quickens up our ball movement and creates a connection from defence to half forward where we can really move things quickly. Going inside 50 we have two big targets which puts the heat on them.

In the middle I have a feeling that Lord and Hewett will spend a lot of time on Neale and Ashcroft. Cripps, they will go to him. Wilmot and Zorko may need to be minded as well. This is where good leadership in our forward line comes into play. We may start Cincotta for this reason.

Saad will likely play on Cameron. This is why we desperately need an elite half back in the side like Docherty. It hurt us last year when Saad wasn't able to run off and do his thing but he did do a good job on Cameron.

I think this game will be won in the midfield. Clearances mainly. We need to win them or match them but also apply good pressure. Last years final when they were on top they were walking around us out of the middle after we dominated them. We will probably have our moment where we are going well in the clearances and they will have their moment. When it's their moment, we need to be really good with how we apply the heat. Can't have them carry the ball out of there again.

TDK is important here because he can jump. Pitto will get destroyed by McInerney. He'll just reach over him all game like last year. TDK needs to play and jump into him all day and take his control away. Like in the first round of the year.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I think Moir can only play as sub if Voss still thinks he can’t play out four quarters

He'd get through if he had to. Between managed minutes and playing out of the goal square as needed.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

We have beaten Richmond, North and WCE only in the past eight weeks. Love the optimism but think we need to be realistic / we need every best 22 player we can muster and then some to beat Brisbane up there. Massive underdogs.

Glass half full?

GWS - loss by 12
Dogs - loss by 14
Port - loss by 14
Pies loss by 3
Stk loss by 2.

Hardly blown off the park and yes, we didn't play well....