Prediction 2024 Fixture Predictions

[Grasshopper17]

Last year they dropped it during the Socceroos world cup game

This year they drop it a couple hours before a worls cup cricket semi

One would think they're trying to crowd other sports' time in the spotlight. You're right, it's a bit weird for a season more than 3 months off

Socceroos also played on Thursday night

Perhaps a slightly lower profile match this time

 

[Grasshopper17]

correct I beat another interstate team plays 6-7 again this year
Even Geelong is somewhere I drive to
Was thinking Gather round although 4:40pm on a Friday

Crows 4 plus Geelong
GWS 4 plus Geelong
Swans 6
Dockers 5
Eagles 5 plus Geelong
Suns 5
Port 5 plus Geelong

If you add Geelong most sides 5-6 So much for Melb supporters

Anyone crunched the numbers on how many at the MCG?

 

[Grasshopper17]

I just don't get the Carlton prime-time thing. One finals win in the last 10 years...

Two. Still... Maybe they are cooking something?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Looking at our first 4 Perth and Adelaide trips travel factor.

Coming into our round 1 game at Optus v the Dockers we have a 9 day break from our opening fixture v the Blues @ Gabba.... we then have a bye which gives us an 11 day break heading into the Easter Thursday gave v the Premiers.

Next is the Kangaroos in round 4 off a 8 day break v Magpies @ Gabba.... going into a game v Demons round 5 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Crows in round 9 coming off a 7 day break from round 8 v Suns @ Gabba... going into a game v Tigers in round 10 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Port in round 15 coming off a 8 day break v Saints @ Gabba.... going into a game v the Demons @ Gabba in round 16 which is a date and time TBC.
_______________________________
Our game v Eagles late in the season is also bookended by games @ Gabba... date and time TBC.

Decent breaks and we also have games before and after at the Gabba so not back to back travels, not much to complain about there IMO.

Our Round 5 game is at the MCG. That's separate-the-men-from-the-boys areas.

So is playing the Giants in Canberra off a 5 day break.

Apart from that I agree, a lot of travel west but the week-to-week scheduling looks OK.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Couple of observations for those of us who enjoy multiple winter codes.

Much fewer clashes this season which is great to see, although we don't yet know the times for our last 9 games.

20 April will be a busy night with us hosting Geelong and the Broncos hosting Canberra at the same time.

The Lions are at home during Magic Round which I think is a first. We play Richmond so would still expect a good crowd. Quite aggressive from the AFL if they realised. Broncos play the Friday (vs Manly as standard) and the Lions the Saturday.

Our Hawthorn match clashes with the Titans match on 26 May but obviously the Hawthorn game is in Melbourne.

The reverse happens on 14 June when we host St Kilda at the same time as the Broncos play the bunnies in Sydney.

Both teams actually share a bye on the first weekend of June. We obviously have 1 bye before that (the Broncos travel to Penrith that Thursday). The Broncos have 2 more byes later in the season, coinciding with our matches against Port Adelaide and Collingwood, both away.

 

[BRAB]

What the hell was our social media cheese board bit regarding our fixture??

We’re.. we’re not great in that space..

I understood why our social media was a bit average after the social media guy got interviewed on the roar deal this year.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I understood why our social media was a bit average after the social media guy got interviewed on the roar deal this year.

He left at the end of the season... We have a new guy now.

 

[McIvor]

Disappointing for our Victorian fans after being dudded with only five games in Victoria the AFL again screwed the Lions by shipping us off to Sydney for the second year in a row.

Must be easy having the fixturing job at the AFL given it’s largely a copy and paste each year with just a couple of minor tweaks. Sounds like my kind of job.

 

[Macca180]

Must be easy having the fixturing job at the AFL given it’s largely a copy and paste each year with just a couple of minor tweaks. Sounds like my kind of job.

I reakon a lot would go into it.

But agree, what a job.

 

[Section 5]

Earlier that day, tickets to the Gold Coast v GWS clash at Mount Barker were sold out, following a similar announcement on Wednesday for the Friday night clash between Port Adelaide and Essendon at Adelaide Oval and West Coast's match against Sydney at Mount Barker on the Saturday.

The 2024 Gather Round opener between Adelaide and Melbourne sold out on Tuesday, just a day after going on sale, while the Brisbane v North Melbourne and Richmond v St Kilda games at Norwood Oval are also sold out.

EIGHT games sold out: Don't miss out on Gather Round tickets

Grab your friends and family and lock in your Gather Round 2024 seats in Adelaide

www.afl.com.au

 

[Grasshopper17]

Squigglies are back for 2024... the models have us winning 14 games on the balance of probabilities, and going 17-6 in absolute terms. Certainly a testing period from Rounds 5-15 where we are expected to go 5-5. But I think the whole season is gonna be pretty challenging.



They do have us finishing in the top 2, so it's all relative I guess. Only 1.5 games between 1st and 10th!



Don't ask me why my table adds up to 14.16 while Squiggle's graphic says 13.9... I've just used the data from Squiggle's own API.

 

[MSB ROYS]

2 SA clubs, 2 NSW clubs. 1 Qld Club, Geelong and two Melbourne clubs. The AFL will need to redo the fixture ASAP.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Squigglies are back for 2024... the models have us winning 14 games on the balance of probabilities, and going 17-6 in absolute terms. Certainly a testing period from Rounds 5-15 where we are expected to go 5-5. But I think the whole season is gonna be pretty challenging.

View attachment 1919941

They do have us finishing in the top 2, so it's all relative I guess. Only 1.5 games between 1st and 10th!

View attachment 1919946

Don't ask me why my table adds up to 14.16 while Squiggle's graphic says 13.9... I've just used the data from Squiggle's own API.

These things can never take into account and predict injuries though

 

[briztoon]

2 SA clubs, 2 NSW clubs. 1 Qld Club, Geelong and two Melbourne clubs. The AFL will need to redo the fixture ASAP.

How the actual **** is Geelong considered a top 8 team ahead of Carlton and the Bulldogs?

 

[FootyLad0]

How the actual **** is Geelong considered a top 8 team ahead of Carlton and the Bulldogs?

It's based on data, for majority of the 2023 season the Cats had amazing % they just had a butt-tonne of injuries throughout the season and then late in the year sent guys for surgery early so tanked those games and played the really young fellas.
The Dogs vs Cats game in particular was great to watch seeing all the young kids out there that normally wouldn't have gotten a shot.

I'm imagining the data is banking on Geelong continuing to be the best scoring team from turnover in 2024.
The squiggle grid shows the Cats attacking and defensively are just below the Lions and GWS on the grid plot.
Squiggle 2024 <<< you can see every team's starting point here. If you click the "flagpole" link you can see how they've extrapolated the data.

Going from the hardest schedule to one of the easier ones definitely would help.
Actually getting blokes to stay healthy and be on the ground and bouncing back would be the aim, this was the first off season in 8 years where they actually had a long off season to work on stuff and take time to recover/get surgeries etc too.
They've had 3 non Finals years in 20 years (2006 which resulted in Premiership in 2007, 2015 which resulted in a top 2 finish in 2016 and now 2023)

Keep in mind the range says 3rd-12th. So while they could absolutely bounce back, they may continue to struggle with the transition of a huge glut of older blokes, a huge glut of really young talented blokes and not much in the middle age pack which is usually Premiership contending age. Never finished lower than 12th so can see why that's the end range number.

 

[whizkizz]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Great review and well spotted. Yes I did feel a sense of familiarity about it all, but not to the extent you've pointed out.

Unfortunately the AFL has fairness and equality a long down the list of priorities, well behind "marquee matchups" like Gold Coast v Richmond, which in an actual mature competition is right at the bottom.

 

[dlanod]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Now do that for every club... I can guarantee they don't start with a set fixture for the Lions and work their way backwards from that.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Add in the fact we are playing GWS in ACT and Port Adelaide and Adelaide in South Australia again

 

[McIvor]

 

[McIvor]

So all up we got one prime time game (vs Melbourne) on the Friday night and two Sunday twilight games (three including the Eagles game which is really a day game v Crows and Saints) and two Saturday twilight games v Suns and Pies and also two early day games against Giants ((Saturday) and Swans (Sunday). Certainly off broadway and prime time which I’m ok with but those Sunday twilights are yuk.

 

[Albi_Mangler]

Rd 17 vs Crows, Sunday evening at the end of school holidays. Could they have picked a worse fixture time?

 

[Squizz89]

The AFL certainly not betting on us turning our form around…

 

[Grasshopper17]

More day games. Big fan

 

[McIvor]

I’m all for going on a stealth run into finals without anyone suspecting us