Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[plays tall 1]

What weight is Warmonger likely to get?

53-54kgs according to the handicapper when interviewed recently.

 

[Sockeye]

What weight is Warmonger likely to get?

53-54kgs according to the handicapper when interviewed recently.

He just ran past some very good horses at WFA and likely to get better over further distance. Don't think any Qld derby winners have won the cup? but some have gone on to big WFA wins. I don't think many/any won it as impressively as he did.

 

[Jugada]

Vauban running 2nd to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger probably going to get a few interested. The Euphrates so close up after being the bunny for Kyprios makes it a bit questionable for me

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

This any chance?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

This any chance?
View attachment 2112707

A few legs looks good - doubt TW is a derby horse though

 

[Jugada]

This any chance?
View attachment 2112707

Probably decent because 3 of the 4 legs are great chances and Traffic Warden has so little chance of running in a Derby that they probably wont even nominate so that will be a refund.

There are huge question marks on if Traffic Warden will even step out to the mile so no chance he is a Derby horse. The Everest seems most likely

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Probably decent because 3 of the 4 legs are great chances and Traffic Warden has so little chance of running in a Derby that they probably wont even nominate so that will be a refund.

There are huge question marks on if Traffic Warden will even step out to the mile so no chance he is a Derby horse. The Everest seems most likely

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

 

[Jugada]

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

Complete dartboard at the moment but taking a stab Henlein looks to be tracking towards a Spring Champion/Derby path

 

[TBellicious]

Melbourne Cup weights found here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...bourne-cup-elimination-order-sep-17.pdf?la=en

Board hope Saint George 50kg

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Internationals all fair well here for me
Absurde
Saint G
Harbour W
Jan B

all have excellent weights for winning chances

 

[Jugada]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

HW will carry that weight no problem

 

[onthehill24]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

Saint George might have to win a race to get up the OOE ?

 

[Lunchtime]

Any of the light weights that take anyone's fancy in the 50kg range?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Any of the light weights that take anyone's fancy in the 50kg range?

Saint G the obvious

 

[Jugada]

Saint George might have to win a race to get up the OOE ?

Almost certainly but if he cant do that he isn't the winning chance we thought he was anyway

 

[Jugada]

HW will carry that weight no problem

He has won a Listed race at Limerick and got beaten in a rubbish French G3 race. Getting 53kg is pretty gross for that sort of form

 

[Peter Doherty]

He has won a Listed race at Limerick and got beaten in a rubbish French G3 race. Getting 53kg is pretty gross for that sort of form

The Map's trainer, Oopy Macgillivray, put a positive spin on the weights today.

Just means you have more jockey options

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

Scary is bred for

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

The horse that I like on pedigree for the derby is Scary at 26/1. Sire Shocking (MC winner) from a Reliable Man mare. Might lack the class but will certainly get the distance.

 

[Jugada]

PRE WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE ($20)
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL ($70)
3. WARP SPEED ($36)
4. CIRCLE OF FIRE ($17)
5. MIDDLE EARTH ($24)
6. ROYAL SUPREMECY ($140)
7. SAYEDATY SEDATY ($51)
8. ABSURDE ($26)
9. HIPOP DE LOIRE ($101)
10. QUE TEMPESTA ($75)

Any news that DELIUS ($110), JAN BRUGHEL ($51) or ILLINOIS ($38) are coming and they will slot in towards the top but seems less likely than likely.

POST WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE - Down on the minimum as expected. Will cop a penalty at some point if he is any chance.
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL - In reasonably at 54kg. Think Caulfield Cup is a better fit but one should lead to the other.
3. WARP SPEED - Gets in half a kilo lighter than Breakup who I think was a similar horse.
4. ILLINOIS* - Factoring in the fact he is an unlikely traveler given Aiden said he wanted to drop him back to 2400m.
5. WARMONGER - 53.5kg about par but put in a nice return so goes in the mix now.
6. ABSURDE - Gets in decently at the weights meeting the stablemate a kilo better off than last year.
7. ADELAIDE RIVER - Finally showed a return to form on the weekend and is in really well at 53 on his former Euro form if he can get back to that sort of level.
8. ROYAL SUPREMECY - On the minimum as expected.
9. SAYEDATY SEDATY - Probably more a CC 3yo but on the minimum is in the mix.
10. HIPOP DE LOIRE - Not sure if he is coming yet especially with so much available on the back side of BF and would need to win something first to get a run but weighted the best of the Ebor runners so tentatively putting him in at the bottom.

THOUGHTS ON OTHERS IN THE MARKET

VAUBAN - Think his runs are being over sold leading in and will likely be false favourite again.
CIRCLE OF FIRE - Terrible week. Resumed running tailed off last and lumped with 54.5. Putting a line though him
GROSVENOR SQUARE - Even if he comes he is in the bin after his Leger run and he is weighted to his absolute best.
JAN BRUEGHEL - Good win in the Leger but I would have massive doubts on him coming and Illinois looks the one of Aiden's that I would be interested in as more likely to come, better suited to Australian racing and better off at the weights. If he comes he will go in some where though.
POINT KING - Weighted fine but that Archer win looked miles off what is required.
HARBOUR WIND - Genuine lols at the media punters carrying on like this guy was the best handicapped. One of the worst weighted for me with 53kg. He has won absolutely nothing to date and is being both weighted and priced on #guessing potential. Will likely be severe unders through out just based on his trainer.
FAWKNER PARK - Absolutely cast at the weights with 55kg and still question marks on him even running the trip.
MAGICAL ZOE - Betfair says not coming.
COCO SUN - In the race with 50.5kg so job done there and not a type im usually interested in but at $200 just looks like a light weight type that we see on the day at like 20-1

 

[Peter Doherty]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/irish-trainer-dermot-weld-cools-on-another-melbourne-cup-raid-after-being-disappointed-with-weight-given-to-harbour-wind/news-story/4f9b0b5f79aaa3a4c42457a9ff80d527?amp&nk=b3504ada62d1ae6919b70bb7a8dde2fd-1726785698

 

[Jugada]

$1.01 shot lobs

At least Dermot has his head screwed on right unlike all these media blokes thinking a Limerick winner was well in with 53 lol. Unfortunately will take a chunk of the unders out of the market though

 

[Jugada]

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/aidan-obrien-young-horses-disadvantaged-by-ridiculous-melbourne-cup-vetting-protocols-20240920

"The Australian people are coming over to check them in the next few days," O'Brien told the Racing Post.

"They are all getting scanned over the next while and then they check them, but very few horses pass the criteria, especially young horses.

"It's very difficult for three-year-olds to get through because they are still growing and their bones are still maturing so I wouldn't be sure about any of them getting in and being allowed to run. It's ridiculous really."

 

[FFB1]

$1.01 shot lobs

At least Dermot has his head screwed on right unlike all these media blokes thinking a Limerick winner was well in with 53 lol. Unfortunately will take a chunk of the unders out of the market though

Half hoped it would get on da plane, half hoped it didn't so was one less George had to get past (will go close to winning tomorrow all the same).

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Is Buckaroo likely to get a run in the cup after today?