2024 Ladder Predictions

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Dazb86 said:
Why do Geelong fans think they'll get an easier draw? The AFL isn't fair. They don't operate on an even playing field at all when it comes to the draw.

My stab at it...

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Collingwood
4. Carlton
5. Adelaide
6. GWS
7. Sydney
8. Gold Coast
9. Geelong
10. Essendon
11. Fremantle
12. St Kilda
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Hawthorn
15. Port Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. Richmond
18. West Coast
Click to expand...

Geelong will get an easier draw than the last 15 years because of there finishing position in 2023

  • Sides ranked 1-6 on the ladder will have a minimum of two double-meetings with other top six sides and a maximum of three meetings with sides ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting of sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides in the 7-12 range. They will have either no double meetings or a maximum of one double meeting with a side ranked 13-18.
  • Sides ranked 7-12 on the ladder will have a minimum of one double-meeting with sides ranked 1-6 on the ladder and a maximum of two meetings with sides ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of three double-meetings of sides 7-12. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting of sides ranked 13-18 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 13-18.
  • Sides ranked 13-18 on the ladder will have either no double meeting or a maximum of one double meeting with a side ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting with sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 7-12. They will have a minimum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 13-18 and a maximum of three double-meetings of sides 13-18.
 
Port
Collingwood
GWS
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Carlton
Sydney
Hawthorn

Geelong
St Kilda
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Fremantle
Melbourne
North Melbourne
Richmond
Essendon
West Coast

Port def by Brisbane
Pies def Giants
Suns def Hawks
Swans def Blues

Power def by Suns
Giants def Swans

Pies def Suns
Lions def by Giants

Pies def Giants

Or something nothing like that!
 

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Toump Ass said:
Damn son. Surely Bevo would be out of a job if this happened, wishful thinking?
Click to expand...

Should have been gone after the West Coast game.

If he can't motivate the list to beat the bottom side at our home venue with a spot in the finals on the line then he's completely lost the plot. Especially after a loss to another bottom 4 side the week before.

The Dogs beat 3 of the prelim finalists last year but also lost to 3 of the bottom 4. Something stinks.
 
stallon said:
1 Brisbane
2 GWS
3 Collingwood
4 Adelaide
5 Carlton
6 Port
7 Melbourne
8 Freo
9 Gold Coast
10 Essendon
11 Sydney
12 Bulldogs
13 Hawks
14 Saints
15 Richmond
16 West Coast
17 North
18 Geelong

A lot depends on the trade period
Click to expand...
What makes you think the Cats will drop so sharply?

They still have 2 of the best key forwards in the game, one of the best defenders, the winningest coach of all time and have never finished below 12th in their entire history. Having said that, the midfield and ruck division really are areas of concern.
 
rapidfire7 said:
What makes you think the Cats will drop so sharply?

They still have 2 of the best key forwards in the game, one of the best defenders, the winningest coach of all time and have never finished below 12th in their entire history. Having said that, the midfield and ruck division really are areas of concern.
Click to expand...
Hawkins turns 36 next year, Danger turns 34, Jezza and Stewart turn 31, Duncan/Rohan/Blicavs also getting up there in age. The ruck is obviously a huge issue too. They dont have elite young guys to replace them at this stage. Their middle age guys are solid but not elite.
Theyve been pretty fortunate with the lack of injuries to the older guys, wouldnt take much for it to all fall apart much like it did with west coast the last couple of years imo
 
My first initial guess is:

1. Brisbane
2. Adelaide
3. Carlton
4. Collingwood
5. GWS
6. Geelong
7. Hawthorn
8. Gold Coast
——————————
9. Melbourne
10. Port Adelaide
11. Richmond
12. Fremantle
13. St Kilda
14. Essendon
15. North Melbourne
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Sydney
18. West Coast

It doesn’t obviously look this way now, but I’ve learnt my lesson. There are almost always shock fallers and risers, so the “safe” predictions are usually way off.

The fixture is a big part of this too, so we’ll see what happens there.
 
Collingwood
Carlton
Brisbane
Adelaide
Melbourne
GWS
Port
Sydney

Gold Coast
Geelong
Essendon
Fremantle
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Richmond
West Coast
North Melbourne
 
Son_Of_God29 said:
Geelong will get an easier draw than the last 15 years because of there finishing position in 2023

  • Sides ranked 1-6 on the ladder will have a minimum of two double-meetings with other top six sides and a maximum of three meetings with sides ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting of sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides in the 7-12 range. They will have either no double meetings or a maximum of one double meeting with a side ranked 13-18.
  • Sides ranked 7-12 on the ladder will have a minimum of one double-meeting with sides ranked 1-6 on the ladder and a maximum of two meetings with sides ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of three double-meetings of sides 7-12. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting of sides ranked 13-18 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 13-18.
  • Sides ranked 13-18 on the ladder will have either no double meeting or a maximum of one double meeting with a side ranked 1-6. They will have a minimum of one double-meeting with sides ranked 7-12 and a maximum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 7-12. They will have a minimum of two double-meetings of sides ranked 13-18 and a maximum of three double-meetings of sides 13-18.
Click to expand...
7-12 teams regularly get draws as tough or even tougher than 1-6 teams. It depends on which teams you get in each bracket
 
hawkman said:
7-12 teams regularly get draws as tough or even tougher than 1-6 teams. It depends on which teams you get in each bracket
Click to expand...


Going by 2023 Final Ladder it means Geelong will get 2 of the following as Double ups

Collingwood
Brisbane
GWS
Carlton
Port
Melbourne

Chances are they will be Collingwood and Carlton both double ups at the G, Given that this Years Easter Monday is a Hawthorn "Home" Game the AFL will have those reverse Fixtures against Blues and Pies as Geelong MCG "Home Games"

No Trip to Brisbane Port or GWS given there performance in 2023 would be a much easier proposition
 
The AFL couldn't fix the draw if they tried. Not because they are incompetent, but because there are way too many parameters to correctly predict much about the following season.

At the start of 2023, Freo had like the 1st or 2nd hardest draw (had both GFists twice). We ended up with the easiest draw on the same metric for 2023.

Then you factor in that those assessments don't factor in when you play a team (getting Carlton in the 2nd half of the season vs the first half or playing Freo in that 4 run stretch before the bye compared to playing us in the first 4 weeks) and you see the draw is a complete crapshoot.
 
Joao said:
The AFL couldn't fix the draw if they tried. Not because they are incompetent, but because there are way too many parameters to correctly predict much about the following season.

At the start of 2023, Freo had like the 1st or 2nd hardest draw (had both GFists twice). We ended up with the easiest draw on the same metric for 2023.

Then you factor in that those assessments don't factor in when you play a team (getting Carlton in the 2nd half of the season vs the first half or playing Freo in that 4 run stretch before the bye compared to playing us in the first 4 weeks) and you see the draw is a complete crapshoot.
Click to expand...
It is although it varies and I'd still say sides in tier 1, 2 and 3 most times get a fixture list appropriately difficult based on those tiers.

I'd say there's a solid chance for Geelong that Collingwood will remain a double up. Then for GWS, Port and Brisbane only one will be away - which is a bonus. Double ups against 7-12 compared to 1-6 look better on paper even though sides will go up and down

One or two double ups against West Coast, NM, Essendon etc would be nice.

In 2019 and 2016 we got pretty good fixture lists after finishing a bit lower.
 

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Mr Meow said:
It is although it varies and I'd still say sides in tier 1, 2 and 3 most times get a fixture list appropriately difficult based on those tiers.

I'd say there's a solid chance for Geelong that Collingwood will remain a double up. Then for GWS, Port and Brisbane only one will be away - which is a bonus. Double ups against 7-12 compared to 1-6 look better on paper even though sides will go up and down

One or two double ups against West Coast, NM, Essendon etc would be nice.

In 2019 and 2016 we got pretty good fixture lists after finishing a bit lower.
Click to expand...
There might be a correlation, but I doubt it is very strong. Especially now that the middle of the competition is so even.

I think if you draw West Coast and North twice you're feeling good about that. Likewise, I am very confident getting the Lions twice isn't ideal and neither is GWS (based on the demographics of their best players and late season form).

The rest you just don't know. Even the Pies could be well off as the Cats were this year.
 
Joao said:
There might be a correlation, but I doubt it is very strong. Especially now that the middle of the competition is so even.

I think if you draw West Coast and North twice you're feeling good about that. Likewise, I am very confident getting the Lions twice isn't ideal and neither is GWS (based on the demographics of their best players and late season form).

The rest you just don't know. Even the Pies could be well off as the Cats were this year.
Click to expand...
Perhaps but from a Geelong perspective Collingwood, Port, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne and Brisbane are a set of sides we comparatively struggle with (GWS and Melbourne have picked up multiple wins in Geelong, Collingwood are always tough, Brisbane and PA road trips are a nightmare).

Bogey teams below 6th...Freo. Maybe Richmond if both games were at the G. Bulldogs only beat us in Geelong with 10 of our players missing. A Gold Coast away trip may at least get balanced out by a home game. It's just a better group for doubling up with, on paper anyway. But we'll see. There's no certainty.
 
Way too hard. Top 8 in no order

Lions
Pies
Blues
GWS
Adelaide
Port
Dees
Bulldogs

I could easily replace the Doggies with the Saints or Freo. Who would have thought Geelong would miss the 8? I would have thought they'd be certainties for top 4.
 
Carlton
Port
Melbourne
Collingwood
Brisbane
Gws
Geelong
Adelaide

Freo
Richmond
Gold coast
West bull
St kilda
Essendon
haw
Sydney
Nth
West coast

Carlton could do a Collingwood.
Ports list will be better next year than this year. Minor round will be no problem, finals will be the test again.
Melb. Still in the Window,
Coll and bris up their again.
Premiers will come from the above teams only.
 
Mr Meow said:
Collingwood
Brisbane
GWS
Carlton
Sydney
Geelong
Adelaide
Gold Coast

Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Essendon
NM
WCE

Can't see Collingwood or Brisbane slipping, but I'm backing the surprise prelim finalists to be the two that join them. Geelong and Sydney with better injury runs and fixture lists should have a smoother ride. Adelaide looked on the cusp. Dimma to get the Suns to breakthrough to finals football, at last.

Some slippery rides for the 4 I've picked just outside the 8, as a controversial addition. Straight sets usually doesn't bare well. St Kilda could easily have have a hiccup season before taking a step forward in 2025 and Bevo's Dogs love to frustrate.
Click to expand...

Got Richmond slipping all the way to the VFL?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
rapidfire7 said:
What makes you think the Cats will drop so sharply?

They still have 2 of the best key forwards in the game, one of the best defenders, the winningest coach of all time and have never finished below 12th in their entire history. Having said that, the midfield and ruck division really are areas of concern.
Click to expand...
Ol Fly has gone past Scotty for winning percentage ;)
 
Lsta062 said:
My first initial guess is:

1. Brisbane
2. Adelaide
3. Carlton
4. Collingwood
5. GWS
6. Geelong
7. Hawthorn
8. Gold Coast
——————————
9. Melbourne
10. Port Adelaide
11. Richmond
12. Fremantle
13. St Kilda
14. Essendon
15. North Melbourne
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Sydney
18. West Coast

It doesn’t obviously look this way now, but I’ve learnt my lesson. There are almost always shock fallers and risers, so the “safe” predictions are usually way off.

The fixture is a big part of this too, so we’ll see what happens there.
Click to expand...

Good post - re your comments

And even your side 50-1 - i reckon that is overs - in the sense the odds when they put them up to make the 8 might be quite attractive - you had 1 really bad game - the loss to Bris at the Gabba - but apart from that - the rest were allright

I think it is an exciting/interesting comp at the moment - in the sense there are alot of sides - you just dont know what is going to happen - look at Hawthorn they beat the Premiers late in the season

Im very keen on the Crows - i watched that latest showdown and they annihilated Port Ade

Collingwood
Adelaide
Melb
GWS
Swans
Frem
Port
StKilda
 

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