2024 Ladder Predictions

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VicBased said:
GWS...I think this is their year, definite finalists.
Brissy...A GWS/Brissy GF not out of the question.
Collingwood...A premiership hangover but not enough to see them drop too far.
Sydney...they will be a team with something to prove and could finish anywhere.
Carlton...who knows with this team! Should play finals but an injury or two to their top tier players could see them move down the ladder. A lot of home games could save them.
Port...Good enough last year and will play finals and maybe could even give Hinkley his deepest desire.
Gold Coast...Their year to play finals.
Saints...To round out the eight. Hopefully "Ross the Boss" to not revert back to his old game plan.
Melbourne...Still have good talent but Coaching problems could arise and Goodwin could implode.
Adelaide...From watching their close ones last year they could be the AFL wild card.
Geelong..on the basis of their two home grounds will always be in the middle order but could certainly be the year of "To old/to slow" finally dawn on them.
Dockers...Will Longmire improve this squad to finals?Not judging from last year they won't.
Hawthorn...Liked what I saw last year and seem to be a team with enough good core players about to step up.
Richmond...Another couple of years in the middle order to see what Yze will bring to the table.
Bullies...I.Just...Don't...know.
West Coast...They will drag themselves off the canvas this year and give hope back to their supporters.
NM...so many "Could be's " in this team and if they become "Will be's" the next few years will be exciting.
Essendon...I hope they recover from their almighty downfall sooner rather than later. James hurt them more than they know.
Click to expand...
What's Longmire got to do with Freo?

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g_TRAIN said:
Excluding my team (think we will be top 6 though)

The 8:

Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, Giants, Gold Coast, Port, Hawthorne

The Bottom 4:

Carlton, Essendon, West Coast, North Melbourne

The Rest:

Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong, Freo, Bulldogs
Click to expand...

Would you be willing to bet on Carlton's finishing position?
 
1. Brisbane
2. Collingwood
3. Greater Western Sydney
4. Sydney
5. Adelaide
6. Melbourne
7. Port Adelaide
8. Gold Coast

9. Carlton
10. St Kilda
11. Hawthorn
12. Geelong
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Fremantle
15. North Melbourne
16. Essendon
17. Richmond
18. West Coast

And some thoughts about a some of the teams:
It's the year of Lions for me, they have been building for 5/6 years and look primed for a big year. Premiers 2024.
Adelaide will be the surprise team this season, they look ready to make a great leap forward and with a reasonable draw, one or two surprise results could see them climb up to around the 4th/5th.
Carlton had a very good 2023 but with a harder draw may struggle a little this season and just miss the 8. Like Geelong in 2006 and Melbourne in 2019, a bit of a down year before rising to or near the top the following season.
I have Gold Coast making the 8, they have been building a nice list and now have a quality coach and I'd expect a couple of their academy picks to make a positive impression this season.
I'm not convinced Essendon's list build has been all that smart and they will struggle this season and I even have them finishing below North Melbourne which I'm sure McKay will love. :)
I have West Coast winning the Wooden Spoon again, they have struggled with injuries the last couple of years, but the form of some their experienced players like Gaff, Darling and McGovern last season didn't fill me with any confidence either, they looked like the game had past them by.
 
Im bullish on Carlton to win the lot.

Brisbane should have the fire in their belly and Collingwood will be thereabouts too but if they can harness some momentum, Carlton will be hard to stop, their weapons are made for big games and their age profile is magnificent. They have most spots covered except that small forward spot. If someone like Motlop steps up look out..

GWS a smoky.

I reckon the Gold Coast might finally start to make the next step. A dream draw cant hurt. Honestly, if they dont make finals next year, they should just kick them out.

Not overly sold on Adelaide and think things might start getting dire for Richmond and Geelong. I think the Dees might finish mid table too.

Im quietly bullish that the Hawks might surprise a few and make finals. Obviously Im optimistic, but I can see a bit of Sydney 2021 in them, who came from bottom 4 with a young exiting team and make the top 8.
 
Grand final: GWS d Geelong

Ladder

GWS

Collingwood

Geelong

Brisbane

Carlton

Port Adelaide

Sydney

Fremantle



Adelaide

Gold Coast

Melbourne

St Kilda

Essendon

Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn

Richmond

North Melbourne

West Coast Eagles
 

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adammania9 said:
Essendon is more gut than belief for me. I don't love the list but there's two things I think work in their favour.
1. coach - like you, I rate Brad and his ability to get the most out of average lists.
2. age profile - so many blokes wedged in the 50-100 game bracket that I think can step up. Nobody is old except Goldstein who is new and an upgrade, and Heppell who is no longer best 23.

I'm looking forward to seeing a new Essendon back line. They were too slow to move the footy out of defence last year and their keys weren't big enough. McKay can play on a Hawkins/Lynch whereas Zerk-Thatcher couldn't. You're right in saying their 2020 draft hasn't delivered but reports suggest Zach Reid is looking up to it and could be the intercepting and distributing centre half-back they need. Laverde who was formerly 2nd tall goes to 3rd tall which suits his skill set more. With those big boys back there, Ridley assumes a predominantly attacking role as one of Essendon's best users by foot. Redman is an attacking weapon, with McGrath to round out the group. There's a lot weighing on Reid's shoulders IMO but if he cracks on, Essendon will finally have the back line to compete with.

I'd also be looking to ramp up Merrett's minutes at half-back. Quick, urgent ball movement is the game now. They have tremendous marking wingers in Martin and Durham with Perkins and Duursma as solid options too. In the guts, Caldwell and Hobbs have untapped potential to improve the Bombers around the ball.

Up forward, once more I think there's a bit of pressure on a youngster but Harrison Jones is paramount to Essendon's fortunes. If he gets cracking and Wright and Langford keep up their good work, there's good scoring potential.
Click to expand...
Two kids in reid and jones (and maybe caddy if he comes in as a first season ready movile fwd) are really carrying our hopes
Chf and chb have been struggles for ole dodoro.
 
Everyone in here providing their realistic ladder predictions based on their stupid things like stats, form, and "evidence". We all know it's up to random chance, and that's why I used a random number generator to predict my ladder. Here's what it came up with, along with my attempts to justify each position.

Essendon: Jade Gresham is the GOAT, Ben McKay is impenetrable.
Geelong: Last year was an aberration, they're still a powerhouse.
St Kilda: The RNG knew I was a Saints fan, trying to suck up.
GWS: Build on last year's impressive finals campaign, honestly pretty realistic.
Sydney: Grundy will get back to form, Sydney consistently get results.
North Melbourne: Sheezel Brownlow.
Western Bulldogs: Aiming for another 2016 Premiership, 7 is their lucky number.
Hawthorn: Can't keep the Hawks down for long.

Carlton: Injuries in pre-season gets them off to a slow start, can't recover in time to make finals.
Richmond: Putting them in ninth would be too obvious.
Port Adelaide: Hinkley sacked, activity on Power BigFooty board decreases by 200%.
Fremantle: Continuing a mini-reset, pressure on Longmuir.
Gold Coast: In the running for finals early, run out of legs post-bye.
Collingwood: Premiership hangover hits hard, injuries hit harder.
West Coast: Some relief from constant injuries, able to gain some consistency.
Adelaide: Somehow still the highest scoring team in the league.
Brisbane: No worse pain than losing a Grand Final, all motivation lost.
Melbourne: Culture issues take over, club in disarray.
 
pre-preseason prediction

1 - Lions. Best side in the comp for mine
2 - Pies. Best system and still getting service from their classy veterans. no ruck and key fwd and still won a flag too
3 - GWS. my bolter for '24
4 - Port. Ppl underrate what Zerk and Esava bring. not guns, but complete their backline, and they're well stocked everywhere else
5 - Swans. Expect a rebound after injury/post GF shock season last year
6 - Blues. Really comes down to Curnow repeating '23 and can they perform when expectations are up again.
7 - Crows. Don't look it on paper, but the system and Nicks' coaching has them a threat.
8 - Freo. Raffle from 8 to 13 for me. Went freo as i feel last year they experimented and it didnt work.
----
9 - Dogs. Will go close, and if Bont/English find yet another gear and JUH really breaks out, will push the 8
10 - Dees. Sadly think they'll slide a bit this year. hope not, but things seem amiss but the pedigree is there to still finish top 6
11 - Saints. More exposure for the kids and an injury free/consistent year of performance from King away from regular finals
12 - Cats. Hard to place. had them in the 8 but much of that was on getting a lot back from injury.
13 - Dons. Don't see finals this year. Kids still developing in the midfield and CHF/CHB positions.
14 - Suns. Will bounce, but i don't think enough
15 - Tigers. New coach, new era. Even if Dusty and lynch are back, will leave too much to too few.
16 - Hawks. Reverse to Roos. just don't see where the goals come from.
17 - WCE. Cant remember who mentioned here, but being a Kelly injury away from relying on Ginbey isn't ideal
18 - North. no backline will hurt them, but the midfield and fwd line will be fun to watch. larkey, curtis, george and duursma should put some scoreboard pressure on
 
Gut feel rather than using a ladder predictor:

1. Brisbane - they got better in the offseason and have the best home ground advantage in the league right now.
2. Carlton - finally know who they are and look primed to push for the top 4.
3. Collingwood - McStay is a big loss for them and I think they'll take the H&A season less seriously in order to prepare for September.
4. GWS - My only concern is their key forwards - elite everywhere else.
5. Melbourne - too good to miss finals entirely but the off-field noise is too loud to completely ignore.
6. Geelong - 2023 was truly horrible to them injury wise. They still have enough talent and experience to push for finals with a weaker fixture and their home ground advantage.
7. Gold Coast - the AFL has made it almost impossible for them to miss finals.
8. Port Adelaide - performances in last year's finals was very concerning for me. Think they take a decent step back.

9. St. Kilda - could finish anywhere from 5-13 and I wouldn't be shocked. Can't get a definitive read on them so I've got them here. Bit of a cop-out really.
10. Sydney - not a believer in their key defensive stocks or the Grundy/Adams recruitment (2017 called and they want their overhyped on-ball duo back). Bit of a transition year for them.
11. Essendon - think they become a more reliable team as the year goes on but their new faces won't gel in time to make finals.
12. Bulldogs - I just hate the way their team fits. So many names on their list that I like but they make no sense together.
13. Adelaide - key backs are a big concern for me. Long term I believe in where they're headed but don't think it clicks for them this year.
14. Hawthorn - similar to Adelaide. They'll be the most fun team to watch this year.
15. Fremantle - poor forward line and a lame duck coach. Not a recipe for success.
16. Richmond - time to bottom out after an incredible era. Forward line looks depleted.
17. North Melbourne - nice young midfield core but if they can't stop the ball going into defence they'll concede 100+ every game.
18. West Coast - the worst side in AFL history got worse in the offseason. Could be a very ugly year for them.
 
Honestly think blues win the flag this year, clearly Lions & Pies, then Dees, Sydney, GWS being the main threats

I see improvement in other clubs, but I can’t see the scope for improvement as much as what I see with Carlton.

Of course having a pretty healthy list come to the right time of the season will make a huge difference
 

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