List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets

[go_the_dockers]

There is definitely a few people in this board who have their superannuation profile set to Cash Investments only!

Got to bank that safe 3-4% ROA and take no risks lol

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

 

[Joao]

A part of that is surely a coaching thing.

No doubt. But I don't believe JL wants blokes 25m out looking to pass though. Or mids streaming through the 50 kicking to a contest.

Our decision making in those moments is clearly not on point squad wide.

 

[Dockeroo]

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

In all seriousness we need to avoid hitting the draft this time. One player in round 1 is fine.

We already have Erasmus and Simpson at peel unable to get a game.
Then if cox and Pearce stay for next year you can add draper to that.

Then there could be THREE more first round draft picks sitting at peel losing value.
The Ed Allan effect.

I want ready made players like Baker and Bolton with those picks to push the likes of Aish and Banfield to peel, permanently.

 

[Taylor]

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

That's exactly how I see it too. The safest choice is trading for exactly the player you need/want rather than hoping you get a player as good as them with the selection you have.

Let's take a look at the strike rate of first round picks from pick #5 to #20, to keep numbers easy we will assume 22 games per season.

2015:
198 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 119 = 6 players in sample (6/16 picks unsuccessful)
8/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2016:
176 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 106 = 7 players in sample (7/16 picks unsuccessful)
8/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2017:
154 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 92 = 7 players in sample (7/16 picks unsuccessful)
10/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2018:
132 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 79 = 6 players in sample (6/16 picks unsuccessful)
6/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2019:
110 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 66 = 9 players in sample (9/16 picks unsuccessful)
6/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

That window is looking back the length of a long contract offered to attract a player to the club, the five to nine year offers etc. That's the direct comparison to what you can expect.

TLDR: The known quantity compared to an average of 48% of players taken in the draft will no longer be at the club they were drafted by and 44% won't have played more than 60% of possible games.

I put it to you that if you require two picks worth of player to retain and play the same as a known quantity, you may as well use two of them to get the known player.

 

[Dockeroo]

The main risk here is that Bolton gets distracted by off field affairs and puts the que in the rack when he gets over here.
Or does a Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

and coasts though games with conditional effort.

Surely the club have done their due diligence on the likelihood of that this time after the Hogan debacle?

 

[Duz97]

Bolton will try if he’s in a good team that’s just who he is. Hes gonna play well when the team play well and play shit when the team plays shit. but if we had Bolton this year we win 5 of the games under 3 goals we lost this year Bolton is the difference between top 2 and missing finals. That alone means he’s worth it id be happy to pay 2 firsts if Richmond pay 25-50% of his contract if not ports first and pick 25

 

[go_the_dockers]

In all seriousness we need to avoid hitting the draft this time. One player in round 1 is fine.

We already have Erasmus and Simpson at peel unable to get a game.
Then if cox and Pearce stay for next year you can add draper to that.

Then there could be THREE more first round draft picks sitting at peel losing value.
The Ed Allan effect.

I want ready made players like Baker and Bolton with those picks to push the likes of Aish and Banfield to peel, permanently.

Agree to disagree. Trading in contracted players very rarely works, and you always pay overs.

Happy with Baker, I think we could get him for a 2nd round pick.

I think if we got good outside mids, or forward pockets (including mids who can play forward) and they have a good preseason they should be able to play 10+ games next year.

Banfield, O'Meara, Aish, Walters, Worner, Wagner, Emmett and Sharp could all be pushed aside, even if it takes 3 or 4 good WAFL games.


Let's not forget that next year, the below players will be lucky to play 50 games between them and the year after, it could easily be under 25. This year they played 100. (5 positions in the 23 will be up for grabs with in 2 years)
Walters - 16
Fyfe - 21
Aish - 20
OMeara - 21
Banfield - 22

 

[apuchar]

Sharp was one of our best players for 3/4's of the season. He is probably just stuffed.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Sharp was one of our best players for 3/4's of the season. He is probably just stuffed.

His first full year playing AFL. I think a few of our players are stuffed. Draper looks like he is slowing down.

His kicking appears a lot more up and under than I remember earlier in the year. (My memory could be wrong)

Was he kicking better at the start of year?

 

[apuchar]

His first fall year playing AFL. I think a few of our players are stuffed. Draper looks like he is slowing down.

His kicking appears a lot more up and under than I remember earlier in the year. (My memory could be wrong)

Was he kicking better at the start of year?

I thought a bit better. He wasn't terrible which he is atm imo

 

[Cobbler]

The dream would’ve been to pinch one this year and phase out Fyfe, Walters, JOM.

That dream now goes to 2025.

Once we start entering 2026 Pearce, Ryan, Switta, Aish and others start hitting their 30s

We can certainly have a solid 5-6 year window but it pains me when people say we’re too young.

 

[Purple Suit]

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

The Draft is Super, best bang for buck investment but takes time.
Trading is the Stock Market, Blue chip are expensive but usually better returns than the highly speculative stocks. Not wise if you are already poor and struggling to make ends meet.
Doing no trades and just turning over 4-5 a year is the cash investment. Very little to get ahead but at least you won't look silly.

 

[The Lobbster]

The dream would’ve been to pinch one this year and phase out Fyfe, Walters, JOM.

That dream now goes to 2025.

Once we start entering 2026 Pearce, Ryan, Switta, Aish and others start hitting their 30s

We can certainly have a solid 5-6 year window but it pains me when people say we’re too young.

Statistically we are too young. Those players you mentioned aren’t but across the gameday squad, we are unlikely to achieve much based on historical data.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Statistically we are too young. Those players you mentioned aren’t but across the gameday squad, we are unlikely to achieve much based on historical data.

I think this is made worse by our old players not playing very well as mentioned earlier.

Fyfe and Walters are barely best 22.
Aish has been dropped.
O'meara is a role player.
Pearce is injured.
Cox has missed most of the year.

etc etc

 

[go_the_dockers]

Who are the players in our best 22 who you want them to kick the ball to a leading forward?

I struggled to think of anyone as good as Walters or Mundy. Young was the only one that comes close, and I think most teams would have 3 or 4 players. Who have I missed??


Elite

Young
Maybe Treacy

Good

Brayshaw, Serong are ok
Sturt maybe ??

 

[Footskill]

Who are the players in our best 22 who you want them to kick the ball to a leading forward?

I struggled to think of anyone as good as Walters or Mundy. Young was the only one that comes close, and I think most teams would have 3 or 4 players. Who have I missed??


Elite

Young
Maybe Treacy

Good

Brayshaw, Serong are ok
Strut maybe ??

Serong and Brayshaw have been pretty bad.. one aspect of their games that needs improvement

 

[go_the_dockers]

Serong and Brayshaw have been pretty bad.. one aspect of their games that needs improvement

Who in our side is good? Other than Young, I was struggling.

 

[Footskill]

Who in our side is good? Other than Young, I was struggling.

Yeh we are lacking in that area, that's why you struggled to name them..besides the ones you mentioned , jom is not bad..

 

[Cobbler]

Who are the players in our best 22 who you want them to kick the ball to a leading forward?

I struggled to think of anyone as good as Walters or Mundy. Young was the only one that comes close, and I think most teams would have 3 or 4 players. Who have I missed??


Elite

Young
Maybe Treacy

Good

Brayshaw, Serong are ok
Strut maybe ??

I think Brayshaw is ok based on he knows his limitations and looks to handball first. If he must kick it’s rarely horrendous but it’s never an elite pass.

Serong is a better kick to target but he will just hack it onto the boot in a rush of panic.

Hence why both aren’t reliable kicks. They have their flaws.

Young is elite by every metric. Vision, placement etc.

Treacy a lazer, moves it quickly.

I actually think JOM is a great kick.

But it does fall away rapidly after Young.

 

[Mags98]

There is definitely a few people in this board who have their superannuation profile set to Cash Investments only!

Got to bank that safe 3-4% ROA and take no risks lol

is it even a risk in anyway to bring in these proven elite talents exactly where we need them and in the exact age profile we need as well? this is the surest way to improve our chances at a flag we will ever get

how ****ing good is that were in the hunt for elite players like bolton and warner to add to a pretty stacked list as is? for the cost of schultz? yes ****ing please, the future is bright campaigners

 

[go_the_dockers]

I think Brayshaw is ok based on he knows his limitations and looks to handball first. If he must kick it’s rarely horrendous but it’s never an elite pass.

Serong is a better kick to target but he will just hack it onto the boot in a rush of panic.

Hence why both aren’t reliable kicks. They have their flaws.

Young is elite by every metric. Vision, placement etc.

Treacy a lazer, moves it quickly.

I actually think JOM is a great kick.

But it does fall away rapidly after Young.

This is another reason I want to hit the draft.

I think we could bring in 3 or 4 good kicks of the ball this year, rather than bring in bolton.

FYI - I don't think so Bolton is an elite kick of the ball either, so won't help us in this area.

 

[dont bowl there]

is it even a risk in anyway to bring in these proven elite talents exactly where we need them and in the exact age profile we need as well? this is the surest way to improve our chances at a flag we will ever get

how ****ing good is that were in the hunt for elite players like bolton and warner to add to a pretty stacked list as is? for the cost of schultz? yes ****ing please, the future is bright campaigners

Goin to the draft with all three picks might make us a better team in 2029/2030 but it greatly reduces our chances of winning a flag in 25/26/27 IMO. I WANT A FLAG not to get younger and be fine for a decade.

 

[dont bowl there]

This is another reason I want to hit the draft.

I think we could bring in 3 or 4 good kicks of the ball this year, rather than bring in bolton.

FYI - I don't think so Bolton is an elite kick of the ball either, so won't help us in this area.

Not sure you have ever watched Bolton play. It's honestly the only explanation as to your rating of his overall game.

 

[FreoRicci]

Richmond hold our second and third round picks ?
Currently pick 30 and 48.

Jesus. Practically going to get young talent off Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

along with Pick 1, 21, 30.
That’s a decent hand straight off coming last

 

[go_the_dockers]

Not sure you have ever watched Bolton play. It's honestly the only explanation as to your rating of his overall game.

are you saying Bolton is an elite kick to a player on a lead?

He is as good as Mundy or Walters or Young?