List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[eastfreo75]

For the millionths and first time, the points value system is better than going on draft pick number alone. Until you give us a better system can we just acknowledge the points sytem has limitations but is the best one that we have?

One of the West Coast eagles BF poster did a PH in a points system that is a better reflection.

Higher points are undervalued, and lower picks are overvalued in the current system

I will try to find it for you.

 

[eastfreo75]

For the millionths and first time, the points value system is better than going on draft pick number alone. Until you give us a better system can we just acknowledge the points sytem has limitations but is the best one that we have?

West Coast BF posted created a better point systems.

I will try to find it for you.

 

[DocT]

If it's 9 and 17 I'd expect nothing back so maybe some salary or a pick in the 40s at best. 29 is very optimistic.

If it's 9 and 10, I'd expect a lot of salary and a 20s pick back. All the reasons people list for "getting him cheap" are more the reasons they will let him go. Remember they value him so highly they gave him a $1 - $1.2m contract. We are still paying a big price

The contract was made in Dec 2022, they have had two prime years worth out of the deal. Cerra was 22 when traded, 4 years younger than Bolton. 4 more prime years for Carlton in the deal compared to what we get for Bolton. Richmond have had good return so far for Bolton and his value is now less than when they gave him that deal. he's the same player btu overall offers 2 years less to Freo.

West Coast BF posted created a better point systems.

I will try to find it for you.

Thx for the excellent response. Are you aware of this:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[eastfreo75]

The contract was made in Dec 2022, they have had two prime years worth out of the deal.

Thx for the excellent response. Are you aware of this:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Yes.

Used it all the time.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I am sure I heard on an interview with Joe that we want to take 1 first round pick into this draft. Unless Warners is in play we need to stick with this IMO as there is too much talent there.

It makes sense, even if we get Baker as well as Bolton, should aim to have a pick in the 1st and 2nd rounds if we can and take that as our non-negotiable in discussions.

 

[Swiggy]

Twomey saying that Freo will trade all of 9+10+17 for Bolton & Baker.

I'd be interested.

Would it be enough if RFC is paying a large portion of Bolton's contract given we have no good players left to pay?

Otherwise with some negotiation I'd be happy for P29 to go back to Freo. I imagine it'll slide to 32-35 but if the Jack Graham compensation ends up around P22 (slide to 25+) I don't know if we'd use that P29 bar trading it in a deal for points to another club.

RFC will be aiming for P6 to be included for Rioli so we're looking at a hand of 1, 6, 9, 10, 17, 21 and 22.

So yeah I'd give P29 back and I'd also be looking to trade our other picks for an upgrade to a club needing points (also have 39, 41, 47, 57, 66, 73)

Baker will still have to decide where he wants to go. Gut feeling is still west coast

 

[Andyy]

The contract was made in Dec 2022, they have had two prime years worth out of the deal. Cerra was 22 when traded, 4 years younger than Bolton. 4 more prime years for Carlton in the deal compared to what we get for Bolton. Richmond have had good return so far for Bolton and his value is now less than when they gave him that deal. he's the same player btu overall offers 2 years less to Freo.

Thx for the excellent response. Are you aware of this:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

What do you mean here? He's nearly 26, so barring any extraordinary or career-ending injury is a monty to play another 5-6 years in his prime and another couple after.

I'm sure Freo will make him a contract offer that probably lengthens the contract and maybe flattens it out a bit.

He's a very different player to Cerra though. Bolton is an X-factor/match-winner. I don't think Cerra is.

 

[Andyy]

Baker will still have to decide where he wants to go. Gut feeling is still west coast

No coach. No culture (not a good one anyway) but maybe the reason they'd want Baker.

If I was Baker I'd be asking for Freo and not even because they look a better list - WCE is just a scum of a club IMO and the fans are filthy to chat to unlike some other groups here on BF.

I'd also rather see both of them play for Freo than WCE. Vomit.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Twomey saying that Freo will trade all of 9+10+17 for Bolton & Baker.

I'd be interested.

Would it be enough if RFC is paying a large portion of Bolton's contract given we have no good players left to pay?

Otherwise with some negotiation I'd be happy for P29 to go back to Freo. I imagine it'll slide to 32-35 but if the Jack Graham compensation ends up around P22 (slide to 25+) I don't know if we'd use that P29 bar trading it in a deal for points to another club.

RFC will be aiming for P6 to be included for Rioli so we're looking at a hand of 1, 6, 9, 10, 17, 21 and 22.

So yeah I'd give P29 back and I'd also be looking to trade our other picks for an upgrade to a club needing points (also have 39, 41, 47, 57, 66, 73)

This is a Freo take but I think even getting Baker, we'll fight tooth and nail to keep the latest first round pick through including a steak knives player or a future pick. Whether that's possible I dont know but I imagine that would be Freo's goal

 

[FreoRicci]

I mean, I disagree heavily. Baker is a good genuine player that will make us better and I'd have no problem with a pick in the low 20s for him

He is a genuine player.
But he’s not first rounder. Absolutely not.
He hardly starred in a team that won 2 games.
Richmond are trying to add both in order to maximise gain with 3 picks.

I would trade Collingwood’s pick for two late first rounders/early second rounder and offering Baker for pick 19-25 is smarter.

 

[eastfreo75]

What do you mean here? He's nearly 26, so barring any extraordinary or career-ending injury is a monty to play another 5-6 years in his prime and another couple after.

I'm sure Freo will make him a contract offer that probably lengthens the contract and maybe flattens it out a bit.

He's a very different player to Cerra though. Bolton is an X-factor/match-winner. I don't think Cerra is.

9 and 17 is about 6 and 40.

3 years and Bolton is a better player balances it out.

Bolton is not playing his best at the current Richmond team. It's better for you guys to bank salary for a future war chest and picks for the future.

 

[freo_leo29]

Was Walls responsible for getting us a top 10 pick plus more for Lachie Schultz?
The man is a genius trader for that move alone

The one exception to the rule is generally

"Freo trading out contracted players"

It's not always an exception but it has proven to be a good indicator that we will get something fairer back



All other trades, prepare to be bent over

 

[eastfreo75]

No coach. No culture (not a good one anyway) but maybe the reason they'd want Baker.

If I was Baker I'd be asking for Freo and not even because they look a better list - WCE is just a scum of a club IMO and the fans are filthy to chat to unlike some other groups here on BF.

I'd also rather see both of them play for Freo than WCE. Vomit.

West Coast are living in the past and not looking at their current team.

Reading the team leaves, Eagles think they can make the finals in 2-3 years and therefore making him a good pick up. Baker likes West Coast more and his salary will better at the Eagles.

As for us, Baker is a good player, but he is pushing someone else out the best 22 and stopping somebody going in. Fremantle needs some goal kickers, x factor and jets. Baker is courage of a lion but we have Serong, Brayshaw, and Young. What we lack is quickness. Nothing against Baker is doesn't have the jets.

Bolton on the other hand is quick, x factor and kicks goals, which is actually what we need.

 

[Taylor]

I think Richmond would prefer more future picks over replacing ten players in one draft this year. That might look nice on paper to have half the top thirty in the draft joining your club but you aren't going to be able to play them all and they are all clearly talented so you'll lose them for cents on the dollar in two to three years as they seek opportunity elsewhere.

And consider that if you did play them all for three years, you will lose every single game because half your team as teenagers does not an AFL team make - then you'll lose a bunch of them seeking to play in a side that is going to win.

I think they will want to spread their load over two years.

That said, if they will take all four of our picks, #9, #10, #16, F1 and give us a second round pick this year and their first next year - done deal.

A top three pick for Warner, done, over. Immediately offer it this year and they'll take it.

 

[Docker82]

Don’t hate idea but just can’t see Brodie going anywhere… Richmond have 3-4 older mids doubt Brodie would be on there hit list

For me the issue with Brodie is the other fringe players that can play his position that might be available.

Why would you go after Brodie if Kennedy is available? Price I guess but if Carlton are pushing Kennedy out your getting a decent mid for unders.

 

[David Bubb]

On gettable today Twomey said there's a world in which we trade one of our firsts (9 or 10) to North Melbourne for their future first. This was based on us not getting Baker/not trading all three of our firsts to Richmond, and North then using the pick we give them to get Houston

 

[s_wd6]

The one exception to the rule is generally

"Freo trading out contracted players"

It's not always an exception but it has proven to be a good indicator that we will get something fairer back



All other trades, prepare to be bent over

Yeah there's a pretty clear pattern with Walls.

Trading for an OOC player - pay overs
Trading out an OOC player - take unders because they're out of contract and could walk for nothing

Funny how he doesn't seem to apply the second point when bringing in OOC players though...

Trading in a contracted player - pay overs
Trading out a contracted player - receive big overs

So he get's us good return for our contracted players but every other scenario he falls short on.

 

[eastfreo75]

On gettable today Twomey said there's a world in which we trade one of our firsts (9 or 10) to North Melbourne for their future first. This was based on us not getting Baker/not trading all three of our firsts to Richmond, and North then using the pick we give them to get Houston

Twomey is only good to listen to when the draft is on.

Clubs feed him more information after the trade period but before that they are using him for red herrings and negotiations.

 

[Andyy]

This is a Freo take but I think even getting Baker, we'll fight tooth and nail to keep the latest first round pick through including a steak knives player or a future pick. Whether that's possible I dont know but I imagine that would be Freo's goal

Richmond take, you were contending all year before falling away.

I'd be looking at players to bridge that gap (like RFC in 2016, bringing in Nankervis, Caddy and Prestia), assuming the window is open - which I think it is.

The draft produces good talent but won't help for 2-3 years at least, so if you're in contention now then it might be the right time to trade blokes in.

 

[Andyy]

9 and 17 is about 6 and 40.

3 years and Bolton is a better player balances it out.

Bolton is not playing his best at the current Richmond team. It's better for you guys to bank salary for a future war chest and picks for the future.

Honestly with Dusty, Grimes + Pickett retiring...then Baker, Rioli, Bolton and Graham and looking to leave...I dunno how tf we're supposed to meet the minimum TPP requirement unless we pay some of Rioli and Bolton's wages.

Given Freo is hopefully in the window and has some good players it would make sense for Freo to trade players in now, pay the picks, let other clubs pay the wages, and have a punt at the flag.

The picks this year won't help you for a few years.


Also if you're suggesting picks 9+17 is the same as 6+40....yeah maybe on points and the bidding system....but no club in their right mind is trading 9+17 for 6+40.


Cerra's ceiling is nowhere near Bolton's from what I have seen.

 

[mightymouse75]

Honestly with Dusty, Grimes + Pickett retiring...then Baker, Rioli, Bolton and Graham and looking to leave...I dunno how tf we're supposed to meet the minimum TPP requirement unless we pay some of Rioli and Bolton's wages.

Given Freo is hopefully in the window and has some good players it would make sense for Freo to trade players in now, pay the picks, let other clubs pay the wages, and have a punt at the flag.

The picks this year won't help you for a few years.


Also if you're suggesting picks 9+17 is the same as 6+40....yeah maybe on points and the bidding system....but no club in their right mind is trading 9+17 for 6+40.


Cerra's ceiling is nowhere near Bolton's from what I have seen.

Cerra was primed to hit a ceiling which never happened

 

[Paracleet]

Getting on my hobby horse.

Chris Voss style of negotiating is way better than the hardball splitting the difference approaches.

Normal negotiating process is start with an offer and they count coffer it. Then each side tries to screw the other until somebody breaks.

Voss style is about information gaining and using tactic empathy to get an outcome that benefits both sides.

How does the technique fair when negotiating with sociopaths?

 

[Swiggy]

I think Richmond would prefer more future picks over replacing ten players in one draft this year. That might look nice on paper to have half the top thirty in the draft joining your club but you aren't going to be able to play them all and they are all clearly talented so you'll lose them for cents on the dollar in two to three years as they seek opportunity elsewhere.

And consider that if you did play them all for three years, you will lose every single game because half your team as teenagers does not an AFL team make - then you'll lose a bunch of them seeking to play in a side that is going to win.

I think they will want to spread their load over two years.

That said, if they will take all four of our picks, #9, #10, #16, F1 and give us a second round pick this year and their first next year - done deal.

A top three pick for Warner, done, over. Immediately offer it this year and they'll take it.

The draft this year is rated a lot higher than next year’s. But in saying that No way Richmond trade a F1 to anyone.
Freo would be reluctant to trade F1 incase Warner does become available

 

[Taylor]

The draft this year is rated a lot higher than next year’s. But in saying that No way Richmond trade a F1 to anyone.
Freo would be reluctant to trade F1 incase Warner does become available

Downgrading our F1 into Richmond's isn't a risk for us, it's Richmond choosing that extra first round pick this year over a slightly later one next year.

 

[Swiggy]

Downgrading our F1 into Richmond's isn't a risk for us, it's Richmond choosing that extra first round pick this year over a slightly later one next year.

Yeh I know but why would Richmond do that it’s probably a bottom 4 pick