Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[The Dingrel]

I would have to say the anticipation of who our key forward is for this years draft is simply off the charts!
Whether we split {if we are able} or we take our gun mid and see who's left in the second round for our guy, its going to be in my eye, the most anticipated pick in 20 years.

Its good to see different points of view and reasoning whether your just a few looks at the players involved or in spare time able to watch them play. As with the top six players {the mids} and where they are rated, its the same for where the key forwards are going to go in this draft so many different positions it really is so intriguing, and a fact not yet discussed is what if we like a key forward and we have intel that he's also liked by three or four clubs and by some way or another we can't split our pick, do we take him with our first pick, knowing another club will grab him or do we just take one of the mids and take whoever is next on our list.

Indeed that has been something I've been tossing up in my mind which is further complicated by the large number of potential afl standard key forwards in the top 30 or so picks. Could we possibly take Armstrong at our first pick? How much better is Armstrong than the key forwards who may be available at our second rounder? Is splitting pick 2 too big a risk should we want Armstrong if others jump in ahead of us? I guess it just depends on how strong the clubs conviction is regarding the player they want and/or if they're happy with alternatives.

If you look at recent drafts and where highly rated big men go:
2023: Walter 3, Curtin 8, Ethan Reed 9, Caddy 10
2022: Cadman 1
2021: Sam Darcy 2, Mac Andrew 5, Jye Amiss 8
2020: JUH 1, Thiltorpe 2, Logan McDonald 4, DGB 6, Z Reid 10

Now of those highly rated top 10 big men draft picks most have justified their draft position.

This year Twomey has Armstrong at 9 the highest rated big man, Tauru at 10, Trainor at 16, and Shanahan at 19.
Recent history suggests you need to pay up for the best available key forward. ie/ from the last 4 drafts the average draft position of the #1 key forward is 1.75.

If Armstrong truly is something special like some suggest, certainly justifiable taking him at our first pick.

Ideally be great to trade future picks into this draft to give us more options. Whatever we do, draft night will be compulsive viewing.

 

[Mutineer]

That’s a big claim mate. What makes you so sure?

(your comment prompted me to have a quick google around and I could only find him top 5 in the preseason testing for agility?)

Souup has already posted his COMPLETE testing results....it's off the charts in every facet.

89cm vertical
2.901 20m sprint
7.788 agility
960 yo-yo

 

[ansonholt]

Love your conviction on the kid. Who are you taking at 2 if Richmond take him at 1? Or are you happy to split the pick then if they do take him?

Probably FO'S. Some of his recent highlights are encouraging. He's starting to look like the player he was last year.

I'm still not splitting pick 2 even if Jagga is gone and it's increasingly looking like he will be. We need best available rather than 8th or 10th best available.

 

[The Talent Scout]

I really hope someone bites and takes our #2 pick. If we can get pick 6 and 17 in return we take it and run.
#6 Alex Tauru
#17 Shanahan/Whitlock
#22 Hannaford/Berry
In that scenario, we address every need with KPD, KPF and small forward.

rOOboy96, 6 and 17 would be, I think, be a little in favour of the team doing that deal and I would "hold fort", because if we want to trade it, we can certainly do a lot better than that, picks are going to be flying everywhere and future picks will be thrown in by a few clubs + compensation picks if they get added, lots and lots to play out.

 

[r00boy96]

rOOboy96, 6 and 17 would be, I think, be a little in favour of the team doing that deal and I would "hold fort", because if we want to trade it, we can certainly do a lot better than that, picks are going to be flying everywhere and future picks will be thrown in by a few clubs + compensation picks if they get added, lots and lots to play out.

Let's wait and see. I hope you're right but I just don't see anyone giving two top 10 picks or thereabouts. Considering no-one can agree on who the top 5 players even are. But, some team could be desperate for that one player.

 

[My Left Foote]

I really hope someone bites and takes our #2 pick. If we can get pick 6 and 17 in return we take it and run.
#6 Alex Tauru
#17 Shanahan/Whitlock
#22 Hannaford/Berry
In that scenario, we address every need with KPD, KPF and small forward.

I really hope we’re not stupid enough to give up the 2nd pick in the draft for pick 6 and an end of first round pick.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I really hope we’re not stupid enough to give up the 2nd pick in the draft for pick 6 and an end of first round pick.

Yep has to be 2 for 6 and 10/12 or not at all

 

[pupstar]

Let's wait and see. I hope you're right but I just don't see anyone giving two top 10 picks or thereabouts. Considering no-one can agree on who the top 5 players even are. But, some team could be desperate for that one player.

I totally agree with you I just can't see any club wanting to swap 2 1st rounders for our pick 2. Like you i could be wrong and a club really rates someone at 2 but the list of clubs that could satisfy us for our pick 2 are slim in my opinion. If that's the clubs plan to split i hope it works out for us obviously, but it will take a fair bit of work and a lot of luck i reckon.

 

[Lomas]

I totally agree with you I just can't see any club wanting to swap 2 1st rounders for our pick 2. Like you i could be wrong and a club really rates someone at 2 but the list of clubs that could satisfy us for our pick 2 are slim in my opinion. If that's the clubs plan to split i hope it works out for us obviously, but it will take a fair bit of work and a lot of luck i reckon.

It could be an on the night thing, I agree

 

[pupstar]

It could be an on the night thing, I agree

Yeah is going to be interesting Who or how do you think it would go Who do you think we may swap picks with to get our 2 top 10 pick Probably has to be the Tigers i suppose.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Souup has already posted his COMPLETE testing results....it's off the charts in every facet.

89cm vertical
2.901 20m sprint
7.788 agility
960 yo-yo

Missed his original post - was going by the AFL's top 10s from the coates testing day results - cheers.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Indeed that has been something I've been tossing up in my mind which is further complicated by the large number of potential afl standard key forwards in the top 30 or so picks. Could we possibly take Armstrong at our first pick? How much better is Armstrong than the key forwards who may be available at our second rounder? Is splitting pick 2 too big a risk should we want Armstrong if others jump in ahead of us? I guess it just depends on how strong the clubs conviction is regarding the player they want and/or if they're happy with alternatives.

If you look at recent drafts and where highly rated big men go:
2023: Walter 3, Curtin 8, Ethan Reed 9, Caddy 10
2022: Cadman 1
2021: Sam Darcy 2, Mac Andrew 5, Jye Amiss 8
2020: JUH 1, Thiltorpe 2, Logan McDonald 4, DGB 6, Z Reid 10

Now of those highly rated top 10 big men draft picks most have justified their draft position.

This year Twomey has Armstrong at 9 the highest rated big man, Tauru at 10, Trainor at 16, and Shanahan at 19.
Recent history suggests you need to pay up for the best available key forward. ie/ from the last 4 drafts the average draft position of the #1 key forward is 1.75.

If Armstrong truly is something special like some suggest, certainly justifiable taking him at our first pick.

Ideally be great to trade future picks into this draft to give us more options. Whatever we do, draft night will be compulsive viewing.

Hey The Dingrel, first up, could we take Harry at our first pick? Perception is the key here, some have said no, that's a reach, while others have said yes, if we believe he's the one and we have intel that other clubs are very interested in him then the answer is yes. How much better is Harry than the key forwards available at our second pick? Again we come back to that word "perception", we aren't going to roughly know the answer, till we have made our pick, my own ranking of the key forwards has Harry going early followed by Jack Whitlock in the middle to late first round and then Kayle Gerreyn followed by Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull both going in the second round.

Now while its odds on that Harry will go first round, theoretically Jobe and Jack could very well swap or they all could go first round and you'd be left with Jonty Faull and Tom Sims to choose from, likewise Harry might be the only key forward taken in the first round. Kayle is another one who could go anywhere in this draft, from late first to a second round pick. My own thoughts is that Harry has all the tools to not only go to that next level but be a star, Kayle Gerreyn and Jack Whitlock are not far behind, so much potential, followed by Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull, and again opinions will differ wildly about where they go, there is no right or wrong here.

Is splitting pick 2 too big a risk should we want Armstrong if others jump in ahead of us? We will have intel like all clubs as to who likes him, how much they really like him and how many clubs are really interested, its all about doing your homework, sure, sometimes a club will spring a surprise but its pretty rare these days with all the technology and printouts and loads of other stuff for clubs not to have an idea, its a small risk and clubs will back their information when there is so much on the line. Your last paragraph is quite spot on Ding.

 

[giantroo]