Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Shermanator]

Champion Data modeled this topic earlier this year.

Grand Finals have the largest standard deviation to ground ball numbers of any game for the season and it’s occurred year on year for the last 13 seasons.

A knock on effect is that their standard deviations in ratings for small forwards and key forwards mimic this.

Small forwards consistently way outperform their season ratings in GF’s and KPF’s way underperform.

Grand Finals are ground ball games and small forwards are one of the most important roles on the day, outside of the frontline mids.

I think that’s a result of the massive increase in pressure, both mental and physical on the biggest stage of the year, as a lifelong dream of 22 players comes down to your individual performance in that 2 hours.

Manic pressure in the midfield means any ‘normal’ clearance and subsequent lace-out kick to a KPF teammate will have added pressure attached to it and therefore a bullet pass that would normally hit them on the chest in a H&A game ends up being a hurried, hack kick forward, so it’s a very good chance the ball is coming to ground.

This allows the dangerous small forwards to feast on loose balls and kick bags.

It makes so much sense having a gun mosquito fleet at the feet of a couple of quality big guys, the rest of the league has been doing it for ages but we’ve been stuck drafting 185cm flankers.

Hopefully that changes with Thirstyfields in charge now.

 

[noobermensch]

A fascinating prospect for 2025, likely to fall somewhere towards the pointy end of the draft. The question to be answered is where his best position will end up being, and this game didn't get us any closer to an answer. Starting off playing as a key defender, he moved up the ground in the second half to play as a midfielder and looked more assured in there having a greater influence on the game with his size, movement and penetrating boot.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

A fascinating prospect for 2025, likely to fall somewhere towards the pointy end of the draft. The question to be answered is where his best position will end up being, and this game didn't get us any closer to an answer. Starting off playing as a key defender, he moved up the ground in the second half to play as a midfielder and looked more assured in there having a greater influence on the game with his size, movement and penetrating boot.

But will he wear a North Melbourne scarf?

 

[shintemaster]

I think that’s a result of the massive increase in pressure, both mental and physical on the biggest stage of the year, as a lifelong dream of 22 players comes down to your individual performance in that 2 hours.

Manic pressure in the midfield means any ‘normal’ clearance and subsequent lace-out kick to a KPF teammate will have added pressure attached to it and therefore a bullet pass that would normally hit them on the chest in a H&A game ends up being a hurried, hack kick forward, so it’s a very good chance the ball is coming to ground.

This allows the dangerous small forwards to feast on loose balls and kick bags.

It makes so much sense having a gun mosquito fleet at the feet of a couple of quality big guys, the rest of the league has been doing it for ages but we’ve been stuck drafting 185cm flankers.

Hopefully that changes with Thirstyfields in charge now.

I think the bold is a fair argument. I think also worth considering how much more generous the umpiring typically is in Grand Finals which arguably may allow more leeway for contact and encourage more scrambling / congested play as well which might suit the smalls more.

 

[Waynesworld]

That makes two of us. I think next years draft class is on par with this years at the same stage, particularly with the talls.

Yeah but in my opinion, we are so far behind with our development / rebuild that we really can't afford to wait another year. All cards on the table this year IMO.

 

[The Talent Scout]

I only think we have been linked because of the family connection. Not a genuine link. From everything I’ve been told, north are keeping very tight lipped when it comes draft ploys.

Spot on! Isn't it great, no one knows our number one target, so when journo's talk about it they go this / that player would suit North and some that do that, its so funny because when you look at their reasoning it actually makes no sense for us to be linked to that player. Fort Knox! NOTHING IS GETTING OUT!

 

[noobermensch]

Played this season as Josh Smillie's understudy at Eastern, as a similar type of big and skillful midfielder, but appears more than ready to step up and show that he's an elite draft prospect in his own right. Racked up a ton of the footy even in the shortened quarters, and impressed with his balance, composure and fantastic movement for a guy with such a large frame.

 

[Orange Peanut]

So what. NM 2025 R1 for Houston & PA 2025 R1.

If ours in 2025 is #2 & PA's is #13 it values Houston at #12

If ours stays at #2 & PA win the flag (#18), it values Houston at #9

If ours stays at #2 & PA miss the finals (#9), it values Houston at #17

Death ride of the century.

If we win the flag and they win the spoon, it values Dan as a late Rookie selection.
Make it happen Shiels.

 

[chubbspeterson]

North F1 + F3 > Houston + Port F1.

(Pick 2-5+40-44 > Houston + 12-16)

Houston weighted as pick 7-14 depending on the finish.

Let Port work their own way back into the 2024 draft.

We still have a F1+F2 to play with next year.

Ultimate Deathride 2.0

FYI you can't trade F1 and F3, it's either trade the F1 and hold F2/F3/F4. I think you can get away with not holding a F4, as it seemed to be allowed in Port and Pies trades of F1's last year.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

FYI you can't trade F1 and F3, it's either trade the F1 and hold F2/F3/F4. I think you can get away with not holding a F4, as it seemed to be allowed in Port and Pies trades of F1's last year.

What if you trade another 3rd in?

 

[chubbspeterson]

I wouldn't trade the F1 after watching these u17 kids on the weekend.
To move a F1 you'd want a top 4/5 pick this year and it's unlikely another team trading out into next year.
I wouldn't trade it straight up for Houston either. Maybe if a 1st round comes back to us this year or next year.

And the problem with replacing our traded out 2025 R1 by just trading in a 2026 R1 is actually going to be that those teams with the F/S and academy kids next year like GC with Uwland will likely need to match with a pick in that same round when the AFL changes the bidding rules. So if they trade out of the 1st round next year they'd want a late 1st back to match the bid, so that might be tough to execute trading wise. Also, the GWS/GC 1st rounders are also likely pick 8-16.
Not all that attractive to trade back in from 2026 if that's the pick you are getting, but it is a nice theory and it was what the Demons did to good effect. Just not sure how feasible the strategy is now with the bidding rule changes coming.

Happy to look at sliding back a bit inside the top 10 this year to get more needs based (Berry/Hannaford and kpfs) picks as next year the mids look great with Sharp, Greeves, Rodriguez etc. There's also the option to pick Ludo or Duursma key position types next year in the top 5 so it might depend what we do this year as to need next year.
I think use 22 and a F2 to move up the order or just target GC pick 26 with the F2 another option.
But we'll wait to see what happens in trade week I guess.

 

[chubbspeterson]

What if you trade another 3rd in?

I think it might be allowed. I think it just has to be retain a selection in each of the those later rounds if moving the F1.
But they did allow no F4 for Pies and Port this year, so they might just tick it off. Rules on the run.

 

[The_General#1]

Played this season as Josh Smillie's understudy at Eastern, as a similar type of big and skillful midfielder, but appears more than ready to step up and show that he's an elite draft prospect in his own right. Racked up a ton of the footy even in the shortened quarters, and impressed with his balance, composure and fantastic movement for a guy with such a large frame.

Clearly some lessons learnt from what not to do. His brother was once touted as a high draft pick but refused to bring his teammates into the game.
Some good use of the footy. Initial thoughts he looks slow like Smillie but he’s clean and looks to have footy smarts.

 

[My Left Foote]

Spot on! Isn't it great, no one knows our number one target, so when journo's talk about it they go this / that player would suit North and some that do that, its so funny because when you look at their reasoning it actually makes no sense for us to be linked to that player. Fort Knox! NOTHING IS GETTING OUT!

Or as they used to say back in WWII, Luff’s Lips Sinks Ships.

 

[Roos1991]

I wouldn't trade the F1 after watching these u17 kids on the weekend.
To move a F1 you'd want a top 4/5 pick this year and it's unlikely another team trading out into next year.
I wouldn't trade it straight up for Houston either. Maybe if a 1st round comes back to us this year or next year.

And the problem with replacing our traded out 2025 R1 by just trading in a 2026 R1 is actually going to be that those teams with the F/S and academy kids next year like GC with Uwland will likely need to match with a pick in that same round when the AFL changes the bidding rules. So if they trade out of the 1st round next year they'd want a late 1st back to match the bid, so that might be tough to execute trading wise. Also, the GWS/GC 1st rounders are also likely pick 8-16.
Not all that attractive to trade back in from 2026 if that's the pick you are getting, but it is a nice theory and it was what the Demons did to good effect. Just not sure how feasible the strategy is now with the bidding rule changes coming.

Happy to look at sliding back a bit inside the top 10 this year to get more needs based (Berry/Hannaford and kpfs) picks as next year the mids look great with Sharp, Greeves, Rodriguez etc. There's also the option to pick Ludo or Duursma key position types next year in the top 5 so it might depend what we do this year as to need next year.
I think use 22 and a F2 to move up the order or just target GC pick 26 with the F2 another option.
But we'll wait to see what happens in trade week I guess.

****ing spot on. Trading out F1 for Houston is desperate and reckless.

 

[Gumble Frankieton]

Nicolas Oudinot as an outside chance for an International Rookie spot?


Pros: very brave, great leadership qualities

Cons: knows how to get injured.

 

[iloveireland]

Please use the shift button. I know it isn’t a valid request, but I have problems.

HOW IS THIS BOSS?

 

[Lomas]

HOW IS THIS BOSS?

Much better, thanks.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Nicolas Oudinot as an outside chance for an International Rookie spot?
View attachment 2126938

Pros: very brave, great leadership qualities

Cons: knows how to get injured.

You've got to hand it to Nic, he took some pain, bled for his country, he wouldn't go down!
Lived to the ripe old age of 80, he was a warrior!

 

[Heaps of fun]

You've got to hand it to Nic, he took some pain, bled for his country, he wouldn't go down!
Lived to the ripe old age of 80, he was a warrior!

Good for his time but wouldn't even get drafted today.

 

[zoomba23]

F1 shouldn’t be valued at Pick 6-8, it should be valued at 1-2.

Bollocks. With the mentalities being expressed around here, we could have a team half-full of top 5 picks picked by us and we'd still expect to finish bottom two. At some point, it's time to take a risk and say **** em, we're backing ourselves in. Our current list is not worse than Brisbane's in the mid 2010s, it's not worse than Melbourne's around 2011-2013, it's not worse than the Saints' around 2014, it's not worse than Carlton's around 2018, it's not worse than Gold Coast's in 2019.

If we don't back the club in to dig its heels in after five years of this shit and find a way to remove the foul stench of actively trying to lose every game we play, we might as well pack it in

 

[Arden Street]

A fascinating prospect for 2025, likely to fall somewhere towards the pointy end of the draft. The question to be answered is where his best position will end up being, and this game didn't get us any closer to an answer. Starting off playing as a key defender, he moved up the ground in the second half to play as a midfielder and looked more assured in there having a greater influence on the game with his size, movement and penetrating boot.

his Gippsland Power coach mentioned earlier in the year that he would try Willem in a variety of positions through out the season. he will look to settle him in a more permanent position in his third year of the Coates Talent League

he’s best suited as a forward, where his overhead marking, athleticism, ability to hit the scoreboard and kicking skills are a feature.

his standout feature is his leap and ability to mark the ball at it highest point.

i’m hoping he continues to grow to 194cm plus & develops into a mobile key forward

i think he’ll kick a few bags in the Coates Talent League next year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he kicks 30 goals plus.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[giantroo]

 

[choppy]

I don’t forget. The Irish Brisbane player had a go at the players requesting trades.

And yes, Brisbane were crap and struggled to get retain talent.

But we are not Brisbane

We are more than Brisbane.

And people will laugh given Brisbane are premiers but we have a two century history.

We didn't fold and merge

8 years of shitness doesn't define the North Melbourne Football club by people who come and go.

It's probably

I think that’s a result of the massive increase in pressure, both mental and physical on the biggest stage of the year, as a lifelong dream of 22 players comes down to your individual performance in that 2 hours.

Manic pressure in the midfield means any ‘normal’ clearance and subsequent lace-out kick to a KPF teammate will have added pressure attached to it and therefore a bullet pass that would normally hit them on the chest in a H&A game ends up being a hurried, hack kick forward, so it’s a very good chance the ball is coming to ground.

This allows the dangerous small forwards to feast on loose balls and kick bags.

It makes so much sense having a gun mosquito fleet at the feet of a couple of quality big guys, the rest of the league has been doing it for ages but we’ve been stuck drafting 185cm flankers.

Hopefully that changes with Thirstyfields in charge now.

And yet Sydney's small forwards did nothing, none of them
Cameron did nothing
Big power forwards turn and win grand finals even if it's just for a half.
Elite midfielders give you enough opportunities to put thre power forwards in that position.
Small forwards are a fools gold that always gets exposed
Daniher and Hipwood won that GF
Amartey and McDonald lost

The mids, 185cm flankers make the difference when the shit hits the fan in preliminary and grand final

 

[giantroo]