Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[giantroo]

This was the reported DVI model for next year

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Comparing points values of selections is pointless when academy or FS aren’t involved.

The value is the opportunity to select who you want without the possibility of someone gazumping you. Moving from two down to six is worth having a pick no further than 11 added to it.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Even with paying out a few Chaff(ish) types? Jesus.

LTI Immediately Hotton then. We must be close.

Don't we have 2 extra rookie spots? 1 new one is reserved for River. What's the deal with that? Do we get fined or maybe have to keep 2025R2 and forget another backup Ruck.

If we were going to pay anybody out (unsure who, Sleevo and CCJ are the only ones contracted on your list and that's not happening) it would have been done already.

Not sure River is a guarantee but there may have been a gentlemens agreement with Anthony we take him, would likely be our only rookie pick (should he get throught the main draft).

I've seen the backup ruck thing mentioned a few times around the traps. We already replaced Free when we brought in Teakle. When CCJ is good to go he can also ruck.

 

[Passmore]

The important part is a move that suits North rather screwing Richmond over.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I had to edit it multiple times.

2 won't translate into 6 & 10 or 6 & 11. 2 for 6 & 20 is roughly the same amount of points. If we want 6 and 10 or 11 we'd have to give up more. I was looking purely at a direct value comparison.

You have to expect to pay a bit of a premium to trade up to pick 2. None of this "same amount of points" garbage. We need to push back against this very obvious narrative that the media will play with to back the Tigers.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

You have to expect to pay a bit of a premium to trade up to pick 2. None of this "same amount of points" garbage. We need to push back against this very obvious narrative that they media will play with to back the Tigers.

Yep.

You’re paying for the GUARANTEE that you get who you want, without risking them not being there at 6, with the added caveat being that’s the absolute elite end of the draft.

Thats worth a significant premium.

Richmond’s midfield is absolute pants, and so is the rest of their group TBH, so if they want someone at two, they’re paying through the nose for it.

 

[Chip Scab1]

correct i expect to keep 1 of laz,cooper,drury as a rookie and cull the other 2

this will give us 3 picks to play with

Happy to accept the umpires call in this instance - not usually my thing but bow down to your superior Draft-rule knowledge. It just strikes me as bit of waste bringing in good experience while you have some ne'er do wells lying around in the same sheds. Happy to pay them out and make space and get some kids eager to learn in amongst the leaders we've been able to bring!

 

[backtothedraft]

Comparing points values of selections is pointless when academy or FS aren’t involved.

The value is the opportunity to select who you want without the possibility of someone gazumping you. Moving from two down to six is worth having a pick no further than 11 added to it.

Why is that the value? Surely the value of pick 2 is only reflective of what someone is willing to pay for it, not just an arbitrary price that feels right?

Only a few days ago West Coast traded pick 3 for 12 and 14. Now we're saying we want two picks inside of that on the assumption that Richmond might want to move up

 

[Chip Scab1]

Why is that the value? Surely the value of pick 2 is only reflective of what someone is willing to pay for it, not just an arbitrary price that feels right?

Wrong. It's an arbitrary price which we set, or they miss out. I could lecture you about Supply and Demand, but I'm pretty tired.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Why is that the value? Surely the value of pick 2 is only reflective of what someone is willing to pay for it, not just an arbitrary price that feels right?

Only a few days ago West Coast traded pick 3 for 12 and 14. Now we're saying we want two picks inside of that on the assumption that Richmond might want to move up

Just because WC did something brain dead, doesn’t mean we should.

Bottom line is we own 2.

If Richmond want someone who will be taken before their next pick at six, we’re the only club with a pick that guarantees they get who they want.

3,4 or 5 don’t offer that and that’s why is worth considerably more.

 

[backtothedraft]

Wrong. It's an arbitrary price which we set, or they miss out. I could lecture you about Supply and Demand, but I'm pretty tired.

The demand for Richmonds picks will significantly outstrip the demand of clubs looking to move up to pick 2. We will very likely have two options:

1. Hold pick 2
2. Split with Richmond

Richmond have a tonne of options at Pick 10/11 and will likely be in discussion with every club in the league about how they could use it

1. Bundle and move up (Would Melbourne be a candidate 5 or 9?)
2. Move back (e.g. GWS)
3. Trade into F1 (North, Essendon/Gold Coast following academy bids)
4. Take them to the draft

 

[DocSholl]

If Adelaide could find a pick in the 20s (eg - by trading their own futures), that could be a play if they really want Draper.

 

[DocSholl]

The demand for Richmonds picks will significantly outstrip the demand of clubs looking to move up to pick 2. We will very likely have two options:

1. Hold pick 2
2. Split with Richmond

Richmond have a tonne of options at Pick 10/11 and will likely be in discussion with every club in the league about how they could use it

1. Bundle and move up (Would Melbourne be a candidate 5 or 9?)
2. Move back (e.g. GWS)
3. Trade into F1 (North, Essendon/Gold Coast following academy bids)
4. Take them to the draft

I think the point is we shouldn't just accept whatever the best offer is.

 

[Chip Scab1]

The demand for Richmonds picks will significantly outstrip the demand of clubs looking to move up to pick 2. We will very likely have two options:

1. Hold pick 2
2. Split with Richmond

Richmond have a tonne of options at Pick 10/11 and will likely be in discussion with every club in the league about how they could use it

1. Bundle and move up (Would Melbourne be a candidate 5 or 9?)
2. Move back (e.g. GWS)
3. Trade into F1 (North, Essendon/Gold Coast following academy bids)
4. Take them to the draft

Once Richmond select, we are the ones in 'the hot seat'. The demand should come then. We are at an advantage and will maximise it either, by a) selecting a gun outside mid to work in tandem with our excellent young mids or b) make a trade to our benefit. We really have the whip hand, if some team wants somebody who's left, they need to pay overs or we just keep and good luck (being as shit as we have been) to collect the draft picks to compete with us or which have enabled us to build the midfield we are building. No need to base it on anything else. Fairness and equity don't play a part.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

It's a pretty lazy article.

North have to eat shit and everyone else gets a king ransom when moving down basically. Even for picks in the teens.

His key paragraph, which he didn't expand on and relate back to his one below regarding us









So they have 4 players at the top of their board. Then factoring Draper as a lock to the Crows if there.. I can't see anyone else realistically being picked ahead of them either.

This the key point isnt it? It's why it's not a trade just for draft parity, he's insinuating we almost need to move down. Which is crap. We are the one club that can really afford the punt and payoff on Lalor or FOS.

Richmond will not get two of those 4 from their current position. Melbourne like the leftover of Smith or Langford at #5, they also like Tauru, but would probably prefer him at 9, I've heard that more than a few times.


So if they want two of those 4, particularly the first two, they have to pay some form of overs to achieve it. Especially in the top 5 of draft. This has been the case for all of draft history, it gets more costly the higher you go. It's true that group is even, but that only applies to the first 5 (I'd actually debate it's the first 4), so is irrelevant really.

Otherwise they pick a KPP at #6 and walk away on draft night with Sam Lalor as virtually the only top midfield prospect through the door with 8 top 24 picks.

They might jag Smillie it 10,11 - More likely he ends up at the Saints.

Then they are pretty much left with a pool of M.Reid, Hotton, Allan, Hynes, Gross, Moraes.

Unless they intend to turn Travaglia, Lindsay, Berry into mids.

Maybe they are happy with that, but it would be peculiar, to have one of the strongest draft hands ever by points and the center piece is a midfielder with question marks on him as a full time mid at AFL level. The other mids listed there are decent prospects, but you can pick up similar types in any draft and you want absolute top quality mids for any contending side.

Is Lalor and stronger midfield prospect than Raynor?

Or would Martin/Degoey be a better comparison?

I realise Martin played the majority of his u18 as a mid.

 

[Sphynx]

Is Lalor and stronger midfield prospect than Raynor?

Or would Martin/Degoey be a better comparison?

I realise Martin played the majority of his u18 as a mid.

It’s who I’ve compared him to on other boards.

I think he’s the most speculative #1 since 2017. Some might argue Cadman.

FOS wouldn’t be far behind him as a #2 given his form line.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Is Lalor and stronger midfield prospect than Raynor?

Or would Martin/Degoey be a better comparison?

I realise Martin played the majority of his u18 as a mid.

Lalor has more exposed form as a midfielder in juniors compared to Rayner.

I think a bigger bodied De Goey is an apt comparison.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Imagine pairing him up with Chom at opposite ends of the ground for the next decade and flipping their positions at will.

Two big and agile crazy-brave mofos attacking everything they can.

It'd be a sight to behold.

Play a quasi-high HF line of Duursma and Tauru with Larks, Curtis, Comben and a crumber as the stay at home forwards.

We need better representation in the air up the wing and across HF.

We saw in GF how much east and simple the game can seem when you have players running hard with good leads and clinking marks left, right and centre.

 

[Kangas_11]

The demand for Richmonds picks will significantly outstrip the demand of clubs looking to move up to pick 2. We will very likely have two options:

1. Hold pick 2
2. Split with Richmond

Richmond have a tonne of options at Pick 10/11 and will likely be in discussion with every club in the league about how they could use it

1. Bundle and move up (Would Melbourne be a candidate 5 or 9?)
2. Move back (e.g. GWS)
3. Trade into F1 (North, Essendon/Gold Coast following academy bids)
4. Take them to the draft

We have plenty of options at 2, it's a weird defeatist narrative to think Richmond are the only team that would have the capital to trade for that pick.

 

[backtothedraft]

I think the point is we shouldn't just accept whatever the best offer is.

I agree. But the point of contention here is what i believe is a good offer isn't necessarily share by all posters.

Perhaps the best outcome is holding at 2 and trading our F1. But again i think there will be an a gap between expectation and reality, given you're almost always likely to pay over when trading futures.

If there is a player that GWS have their eyes on at 11 perhaps a trade could look something like:

North OUT: F1
North IN: 16, 21

Richmond OUT: 11
Richmond IN: F1 (North)

GWS OUT: 16, 21
GWS IN: 11

 

[backtothedraft]

We have plenty of options at 2, it's a weird defeatist narrative to think Richmond are the only team that would have the capital to trade for that pick.

Throw up a couple of alternative options?

 

[Makeshift Park]

We have plenty of options at 2, it's a weird defeatist narrative to think Richmond are the only team that would have the capital to trade for that pick.

I put it to you that the likelihood of us trading 2 for a top ten 2024 pick and another 2024 first rounder with anyone except for Richmond is well and truly in the territory of fantasy.



Its not defeatist to work under the assumption the Saints and Dees won't trade their top two picks to us, it just shows a capacity to think about it from their perspective.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

I put it to you that the likelihood of us trading 2 for a top ten 2024 pick and another 2024 first rounder with anyone except for Richmond is well and truly in the territory of fantasy.

View attachment 2146608

Its not defeatist to work under the assumption the Saints and Dees won't trade their top two picks to us, it just shows a capacity to think about it from their perspective.

Bottom line is Richmond need pick 2 more than we need pick 6 and 10/11 after the complete razing of their list.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Bottom line is Richmond need pick 2 more than we need pick 6 and 10/11 after the complete razing of their list.

You could be right, but I'm not at all confident they'll see it the same way.

 

[hilly]

When CCJ is good to go he can also ruck.

Define ruck