Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[TennisPlayerAndy]

You could be right, but I'm not at all confident they'll see it the same way.

They may not.

Then we just add an elite talent. (Hopefully the last top five pick for a ****ing long time.)

 

[Twangler]

That's nuts! Let's be honest with ourselves, our F1 is more than likely going to be a pick somewhere between 2 and 4. Let's say 3 for arguments sake.

So you're going to give up a pick 2 and 3 for 6, 10 and 18? Absurd!

Yep it’s risky! But my rationale is this is the last year we go hard at this deep draft (we already have so many talented younger players) and instead use trade and free agency as main mechanism to improve the list from next year on. I also think we should back ourselves to finish higher than bottom 4 and even if we don’t, the same strategy of drafting best young has been a treadmill to nowhere!

 

[Kangas_11]

I put it to you that the likelihood of us trading 2 for a top ten 2024 pick and another 2024 first rounder with anyone except for Richmond is well and truly in the territory of fantasy.

View attachment 2146608

Its not defeatist to work under the assumption the Saints and Dees won't trade their top two picks to us, it just shows a capacity to think about it from their perspective.

I get what you're saying, but you're assuming that we are only interested in picks in this draft.

The possibility of trading futures opens up a ton of options, including Saints 7 + F1 or even Adelaide if they see someone like Lalor as the best mid in this class, something like 4 + F1 for our 2 + F2.

Melbourne is a bit trickier because 5 + 9 is likely an overpay, but they've also shown in the past they will be aggressive in moving up for players they like.

If the mindset going into the draft is Richmond are the only option, you hand literally all of the leverage over to them.

 

[Wild Bill]

Since 2010 its been good. Not every pick tho as the like of Toumpass and McDonald show.

McDonald would be close to going top 5 in the draft - it was a shocker.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I get what you're saying, but you're assuming that we are only interested in picks in this draft.

Go back to the NM Q&A where they spoke openly about how they were prepared to use next years draft picks on experience.

Think about how willing nearly every club has been to trade out of next year into this one.

Diluting our hand this year to have more bargaining chips stored up for 2025 would be inconsistent with both messages.

If the mindset going into the draft is Richmond are the only option, you hand literally all of the leverage over to them.

No you don't. No one is forcing us to trade with anyone. Every trade decision that involves sliding down from pick 2 involves a decision about whether the benefits outweigh the risks. The brains-trust at the club will assess that for themselves. A trade with Richmond has to work for us and them or it doesn't happen.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Yep it’s risky! But my rationale is this is the last year we go hard at this deep draft (we already have so many talented younger players) and instead use trade and free agency as main mechanism to improve the list from next year on. I also think we should back ourselves to finish higher than bottom 4 and even if we don’t, the same strategy of drafting best young has been a treadmill to nowhere!

So if we double our number of wins next season, we are still bottom 3. How many wins do you realistically see us getting? C'mon seriously?

I think those two 1st round picks we have, this year and next, need to net us 4 first rounders this year otherwise it's a fail.

 

[Wild Bill]

With testing and interviews, all picks have become better in recent times.

Some clubs rate some players higher than others, and recognise they can get them with a later pick. If we rate Tauru very highly and are willing to spend pick 2 on him, we'd be stupid not to trade back to 6 if we can get him there along with acquiring pick 10 or 11.

I’m ok with 6 & 10/11 - 6 and a later than those 2 picks is a no for me.

Sliding back 4 spots and a mid 1st is a great result - but I doubt the Tigers would do that.

I don't see superdraft - I see a couple of very good at the top end then a large amount of players that look ok but not great but hard to separate. Its an even draft IMO.

 

[iloveireland]

When people say we should trade pick 2 for 2 picks and then trade our F1 for another pick, do we even have the available list spots considering the number of players we traded in?

 

[Wild Bill]

So if we double our number of wins next season, we are still bottom 3. How many wins do you realistically see us getting? C'mon seriously?

I think those two 1st round picks we have, this year and next, need to net us 4 first rounders this year otherwise it's a fail.

Agree - 6-8 is what we should hopefully win but we are every chance to be bottom 4 even with an improved season.

Huge risk dealing our future 1st - Sharp looks amazing!

 

[roos_fanatic08]

As a bit of a talking point I thought I'd do some player comparisons for my top 30. Curious to see others thoughts as this sort of thing is very subjective.

Pick	Name	Height	Position	Club	Plays Like
1	Levi Ashcroft	179cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Lachie Neale or Caleb Serong 3 Caleb Serong Age 23 Ht 180cm Wt 87kg Pos. Mid Career Season Last 5 D 13.0 3star K 7.0 3star HB 6.0 4star M 1.8 2star T 3.6 5star CL 2.6 4star D 13.0 3star K 7.0 3star HB 6.0 3star M 1.8 2star T 3.6 4star CL 2.6 4star D 13.0 4star K 7.0 3star HB 6.0 4star M 1.8 2star T 3.6 5star CL 2.6 5star
2	Jagga Smith	181cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Andrew Brayshaw or Nick Daicos
3	Sid Draper	180cm	Midfielder	South Adelaide	More inside Chad Warner 1 Chad Warner Age 23 Ht 185cm Wt 82kg Pos. Mid Career Season Last 5 D 7.0 2star K 4.5 2star HB 2.5 2star M 1.5 2star T 1.5 3star CL 0.0 1star D 7.0 1star K 4.5 2star HB 2.5 2star M 1.5 2star T 1.5 2star CL 0.0 1star D 7.0 2star K 4.5 2star HB 2.5 3star M 1.5 2star T 1.5 4star CL 0.0 1star
4	Finn O'Sullivan	182cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Isaac Heeney
5	Leo Lombard	178cm	Midfielder	GC Academy	Faster and more agile Touk Miller 11 Touk Miller Age 28 Ht 178cm Wt 84kg Pos. Mid Career Season Last 5 D 21.7 5star K 9.5 4star HB 12.3 5star M 3.7 4star T 5.4 5star CL 4.2 5star D 22.0 5star K 11.4 4star HB 10.6 5star M 2.9 3star T 4.8 5star CL 4.1 5star D 17.8 5star K 5.8 3star HB 12.0 5star M 3.0 3star T 3.8 5star CL 3.0 5star
6	Harvey Langford	190cm	Midfielder	Dandenong Stingrays	Jack Ziebell with better running capacity & decision making
7	Sam Lalor	187cm	Midfielder/General Forward	GWV Rebels	Bigger bodied Jordan De Goey 2 Jordan De Goey Age 28 Ht 188cm Wt 93kg Pos. Mid Career Season Last 5 D 16.7 4star K 10.0 4star HB 6.7 4star M 3.9 4star T 3.1 5star CL 2.3 4star D 15.8 4star K 9.7 4star HB 6.2 4star M 2.8 3star T 1.7 3star CL 2.3 4star D 11.6 3star K 6.2 3star HB 5.4 4star M 1.4 2star T 4.8 5star CL 2.6 5star
8	Josh Smillie	194cm	Midfielder	Eastern Ranges	Less Contested Patrick Cripps 9 Patrick Cripps Age 29 Ht 195cm Wt 93kg Pos. Mid Career Season Last 5 D 25.9 5star K 9.8 4star HB 16.1 5star M 3.4 3star T 5.8 5star CL 7.4 5star D 21.0 5star K 10.1 4star HB 10.9 5star M 2.5 3star T 3.8 4star CL 6.3 5star D 12.6 4star K 4.8 2star HB 7.8 5star M 2.0 3star T 3.2 5star CL 1.4 4star
9	Jack Whitlock	200cm	Key Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Ben King
10	Harry Armstrong	193cm	Key Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Less dynamic Jeremy Cameron 5 Jeremy Cameron Age 31 Ht 196cm Wt 94kg Pos. Fwd Career Season Last 5 D 12.5 3star K 9.0 3star HB 3.4 3star M 5.4 5star T 1.6 4star G 2.6 5star D 10.0 3star K 7.1 3star HB 2.9 2star M 4.6 4star T 2.0 3star G 1.9 5star D 8.2 2star K 5.0 2star HB 3.2 3star M 4.6 5star T 2.4 4star G 2.0 5star
11	Alix Tauru	191cm	General Defender	Gippsland Power	Charlie Curnow Forward - Harry Himmelberg Defence
12	Luke Trainor	194cm	Key Defender	Sandringham Dragons	Luke Ryan or Jordan Ridley 14 Jordan Ridley Age 25 Ht 195cm Wt 94kg Pos. Def Career Season Last 5 D 15.6 4star K 11.1 4star HB 4.5 3star M 6.4 5star T 1.7 4star MG 244.8 4star D 17.0 4star K 11.9 5star HB 5.1 3star M 6.7 5star T 1.7 3star MG 265.4 4star D 13.8 4star K 9.6 4star HB 4.2 4star M 5.2 5star T 1.4 4star MG 208.2 4star
13	Murphy Reid	180cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Less contested Harry Sheezel
14	Jobe Shanahan	194cm	Key Forward	Bendigo Pioneers	Jesse Hogan
15	Tobie Travaglia	187cm	General Defender	Bendigo Pioneers	Less polished, better overhead Lachie Whitfield 6 Lachie Whitfield Age 30 Ht 185cm Wt 83kg Pos. Def Career Season Last 5 D 22.7 5star K 13.4 5star HB 9.3 5star M 6.3 5star T 2.7 4star MG 411.8 5star D 21.4 5star K 12.5 5star HB 8.9 4star M 5.6 5star T 1.8 3star MG 350.6 5star D 17.6 5star K 8.2 4star HB 9.4 5star M 4.6 5star T 2.4 4star
16	Alex Dodson	203cm	Ruck	Sturt	Dean Cox
17	Kayle Gerreyn	199cm	Key Forward/Ruck	West Perth	Less contested marking Tom Hawkins 26 Tom Hawkins Age 36 Ht 197cm Wt 105kg Pos. Fwd Career Season Last 5 D 12.2 3star K 7.9 3star HB 4.4 3star M 5.5 5star T 1.9 4star G 2.1 5star D 12.7 3star K 8.6 3star HB 4.1 3star M 5.1 5star T 2.1 3star G 1.6 5star D 7.8 2star K 5.6 3star HB 2.2 2star M 4.2 4star T 1.0 3star G 2.2 5star
18	Bo Allen	191cm	General Defender/Midfielder	Peel Thunder	Josh Dunkley midfield - Luke Ryan Defence
19	Xavier Lindsay	183cm	Midfielder	Gippsland Power	Will Day
20	Joe Berry	180cm	Small Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Dylan Moore
21	Matt Whitlock	198cm	Key Defender	Murray Bushrangers	Ben McKay defence - Brody Mihochek Forward
22	Isaac Kako	175cm	Small Forward	Calder Cannons	A combo of Nick Watson and Zac Bailey 33 Zac Bailey Age 25 Ht 182cm Wt 84kg Pos. M/F Career Season Last 5 D 12.7 3star K 6.9 3star HB 5.9 4star M 3.0 3star T 2.2 4star CL 0.9 3star D 12.9 3star K 7.3 3star HB 5.6 3star M 3.9 4star T 2.4 3star CL 0.7 3star D 13.4 4star K 6.6 3star HB 6.8 5star M 3.2 4star T 2.8 5star CL 0.6 3star
23	Jonty Faull	195cm	Key Forward	GWV Rebels	Josh Treacy
24	Taj Hotton	182cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Connor Rozee
25	Oliver Hannaford	180cm	Midfielder	GWV Falcons	Ben Keays
26	Cooper Hynes	190cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Dandenong Stingrays	Kyle Langford Forward - Jack Ziebell 7 Jack Ziebell Age 33 Ht 188cm Wt 89kg Pos. D/F Career Season Last 5 D 19.1 5star K 12.8 5star HB 6.3 4star M 3.8 4star T 4.6 5star MG 369.5 5star D 8.0 2star K 5.0 2star HB 3.0 2star M 3.2 3star T 1.6 3star MG 125.8 2star D 16.2 4star K 11.4 4star HB 4.8 4star M 5.2 5star T 3.0 5star Midfield
27	Tom Sims	199cm	Key Forward	Northern Knights	More mobile Peter Wright
28	Malakai Champion	172cm	Small Forward	Subiaco	Shai Bolton
29	Tom Gross	181cm	Midfelder	Oakleigh Chargers	Jack Crisp
30	Harry O'Farrell	196cm	Key Defender	Calder Cannons	Tom Barrass

 

[Masked Avenger]

All this anxiety over being stuck with Pick 2 come draft time, sheesh.

Looks a mighty fine number to me.

 

[Twangler]

So if we double our number of wins next season, we are still bottom 3. How many wins do you realistically see us getting? C'mon seriously?

I think those two 1st round picks we have, this year and next, need to net us 4 first rounders this year otherwise it's a fail.

Well we might win eight games who knows.

I’d be happy with three first rounders this year, that’s all the lost spots we have anyway.

Next year we have the flexibility of trading futures two years ahead as well.

 

[Kangas_11]

Go back to the NM Q&A where they spoke openly about how they were prepared to use next years draft picks on experience.

Think about how willing nearly every club has been to trade out of next year into this one.

Diluting our hand this year to have more bargaining chips stored up for 2025 would be inconsistent with both messages.

No you don't. No one is forcing us to trade with anyone. Every trade decision that involves sliding down from pick 2 involves a decision about whether the benefits outweigh the risks. The brains-trust at the club will assess that for themselves. A trade with Richmond has to work for us and them or it doesn't happen.

Just because Brady's messaging has included potentially using next years picks doesn't mean we wouldn't be open to futures if they are part of the best trade offer.

And agreed, we don't have to trade with anyone, we should also be confident in adding a top shelf midfielder at 2 like FOS or Lalor as another piece. But we've also messaged that we are willing to move down in the draft a bit. My argument is that Richmond aren't the only club that can offer that kind of deal, so if they lowball us, we should be open to other options.

 

[hurricane]

Hypothetical: We rate Tauru as the best player and fit for us and are confident that he doesn’t go in the first half dozen picks. Richmond offers 6 and 18 for our pick two. Do we:

a) hold firm, tell them we need ‘overs’, take Tauru at 2 and congratulate ourselves on not getting bent over at the trade table, or

b) do the trade, take Tauru at 6 and pick up another KP prospect (Faull? Trainor?) at 18

I know which outcome I’d rather.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Hypothetical: We rate Tauru as the best player and fit for us and are confident that he doesn’t go in the first half dozen picks. Richmond offers 6 and 18 for our pick two. Do we:

a) hold firm, tell them we need ‘overs’, take Tauru at 2 and congratulate ourselves on not getting bent over at the trade table, or

b) do the trade, take Tauru at 6 and pick up another KP prospect (Faull? Trainor?) at 18

I know which outcome I’d rather.

not a

if we hold 2 we take FOS/Lalor

tauru is not worth reaching for

 

[joegreen]

As a bit of a talking point I thought I'd do some player comparisons for my top 30. Curious to see others thoughts as this sort of thing is very subjective.

Pick	Name	Height	Position	Club	Plays Like
1	Levi Ashcroft	179cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Lachie Neale or Caleb Serong
2	Jagga Smith	181cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Andrew Brayshaw or Nick Daicos
3	Sid Draper	180cm	Midfielder	South Adelaide	More inside Chad Warner
4	Finn O'Sullivan	182cm	Midfielder	Oakleigh Chargers	Isaac Heeney
5	Leo Lombard	178cm	Midfielder	GC Academy	Faster and more agile Touk Miller
6	Harvey Langford	190cm	Midfielder	Dandenong Stingrays	Jack Ziebell with better running capacity & decision making
7	Sam Lalor	187cm	Midfielder/General Forward	GWV Rebels	Bigger bodied Jordan De Goey
8	Josh Smillie	194cm	Midfielder	Eastern Ranges	Less Contested Patrick Cripps
9	Jack Whitlock	200cm	Key Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Ben King
10	Harry Armstrong	193cm	Key Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Less dynamic Jeremy Cameron
11	Alix Tauru	191cm	General Defender	Gippsland Power	Charlie Curnow Forward - Harry Himmelberg Defence
12	Luke Trainor	194cm	Key Defender	Sandringham Dragons	Luke Ryan or Jordan Ridley
13	Murphy Reid	180cm	Midfielder	Sandringham Dragons	Less contested Harry Sheezel
14	Jobe Shanahan	194cm	Key Forward	Bendigo Pioneers	Jesse Hogan
15	Tobie Travaglia	187cm	General Defender	Bendigo Pioneers	Less polished, better overhead Lachie Whitfield
16	Alex Dodson	203cm	Ruck	Sturt	Dean Cox
17	Kayle Gerreyn	199cm	Key Forward/Ruck	West Perth	Less contested marking Tom Hawkins
18	Bo Allen	191cm	General Defender/Midfielder	Peel Thunder	Josh Dunkley midfield - Luke Ryan Defence
19	Xavier Lindsay	183cm	Midfielder	Gippsland Power	Will Day
20	Joe Berry	180cm	Small Forward	Murray Bushrangers	Dylan Moore
21	Matt Whitlock	198cm	Key Defender	Murray Bushrangers	Ben McKay defence - Brody Mihochek Forward
22	Isaac Kako	175cm	Small Forward	Calder Cannons	A combo of Nick Watson and Zac Bailey
23	Jonty Faull	195cm	Key Forward	GWV Rebels	Josh Treacy
24	Taj Hotton	182cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Sandringham Dragons	Connor Rozee
25	Oliver Hannaford	180cm	Midfielder	GWV Falcons	Ben Keays
26	Cooper Hynes	190cm	Midfielder/General Forward	Dandenong Stingrays	Kyle Langford Forward - Jack Ziebell Midfield
27	Tom Sims	199cm	Key Forward	Northern Knights	More mobile Peter Wright
28	Malakai Champion	172cm	Small Forward	Subiaco	Shai Bolton
29	Tom Gross	181cm	Midfelder	Oakleigh Chargers	Jack Crisp
30	Harry O'Farrell	196cm	Key Defender	Calder Cannons	Tom Barrass

Where would you have McKercher, Duursma, Sheezel and Wardlaw in that mix?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Define ruck

He can stand in the middle and hit the ball if he reaches the ball.

 

[Wild Bill]

Where would you have McKercher, Duursma, Sheezel and Wardlaw in that mix?

McKercher and Sheezel would go 1 (not counting Ashcroft) Wardlaw 1 or 2 IMO.

 

[Firebat]

not a

if we hold 2 we take FOS/Lalor

tauru is not worth reaching for

Agreed. FOS would fit into our midfield really nicely and compliment Wardlaw/LDU.

I was originally on Draper but leaning FOS now.

 

[ChopChopDigDig]

I keep hearing a lot about Alix Tauru here, but how is he that differentiated to BGZ? Seems like another high-leaping medium forward? Is that what we really need?

 

[LeFtBehinD]

I think we're pretty set on drafting at 2, and will be working hard on deals to bring F1 into another top ~10 pick this year. We have enough talent to move up the ladder, adding more future 17 year olds isn't gonna be the answer. And we're not gonna attract better free agents or player trades until we do.

To split 2 we'd need Rich (6 & 10/11), StK (7 & 8) or Melb (5 & 9) to come with a hail mary offer. But cannot see why either of them would with those hands.

The play might be F1 to Richmond's 10/11 spot if there's still someone we really want. Get an extra year of development into a high talent player to grow faster.

 

[Ura]

Where would you have McKercher, Duursma, Sheezel and Wardlaw in that mix?

I would have Sheezel and Kerch at 1 easily in this draft.
Kerch has breakaway pace and penerative kick. He would go 1 without thinking music.
Sheez disposal at the time was elite and dont see anyone in this draft near his ball use. My only concern for him in his class was taking a med forward that high.
Wardlaw has/had better pace and competative tackling then all in this class in his year. I would think higher upside then anyone else.
Duurs back half of the year was elite in talent league. There is/was hope he could spend time in the middle. Vic C vs Vic M was an elite preformance. I personally have him as better prospect then Smith but not as safe as Ashcroft.

If last years draft class the top 3 for me are going 1 in this draft.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

It's not a "good result". It's about fair on a points value thats getting altered by 25% next season to especially prioritize top 5 picks.

In next years draft index, there's a liklihood that 6 & 11 is about parity for 2 on a points value.

As that's the sort of draft hand you are going to have to starting coming with to start matching bids for a Ashcroft equivalent from next year onwards (hopefully)

This was the reported DVI model for next year

View attachment 2146572

Yeah nah. It's still not close. If we get 6 and 11 from Richmond for our pick 2 alone, it will be as a result of Richmond panicking. They don't seem to have panicked so far in their strategy. People keep insisting that Richmond want this way more than we do so they have to pay a premium. Okay, let's let that play out. We'd have to be prepared to hold 2 and use it on best available mid.

 

[Supa_Nova]

Yeah nah. It's still not close. If we get 6 and 11 from Richmond for our pick 2 alone, it will be as a result of Richmond panicking. They don't seem to have panicked so far in their strategy. People keep insisting that Richmond want this way more than we do so they have to pay a premium. Okay, let's let that play out. We'd have to be prepared to hold 2 and use it on best available mid.

Look at the Eagles trade, it'll be 6 and 20 ay best id gather.

That would STILL suit us if i am honest. No one is getting overs, no one even offered overs for JHF or Reid in those drafts

 

[hilly]

Hypothetical: We rate Tauru as the best player and fit for us and are confident that he doesn’t go in the first half dozen picks. Richmond offers 6 and 18 for our pick two. Do we:

a) hold firm, tell them we need ‘overs’, take Tauru at 2 and congratulate ourselves on not getting bent over at the trade table, or

b) do the trade, take Tauru at 6 and pick up another KP prospect (Faull? Trainor?) at 18

I know which outcome I’d rather.

That assumes Tauru isn't taken in the top 5 (if he was our preferred choice at 2 we would want to be confident).

The other alternative is we are happy with one of the six top prospects.