Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

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Gents, I say this with complete respect to you as it’s your board.

But the club with the whip hand here won’t be the club trading P2. You’ll select the offer you like best.

But the reality is, is that only 2 clubs can facilitate a realistic deal. So rule Melbourne out because they aren’t trading a pick out for your F1.

Richmond may give you 6. But the second pick will be 18 at best unless you are also throwing in your F1 - as per the herald sun 🤮

The only other club here is mine. We can give you a fair deal that gets you one of your key targets - we won’t be in competition with you for them. But 7 would represent a massive strategic pick for us if we did grab 2. Which is why it’s likely 8 that gets moved.

Melbourne won’t reach for Armstrong at 5. There won’t be a tier 1 mid at 9.

Richmond could take Armstrong at 6. But likely take the last or second last tier 1 mid.

7 would then give my club either the last tier 1 mid in this scenario OR its choice of any of the tier 2 players and at this point the Giants at 15+16 may appeal more - which you would imagine they make that trade and take Travaglia.

You would be guaranteed to land one of Tauru or Armstrong
Doesn't the bolded suggest we may have the whip hand. We might interested in trading 2, but nothing has shown me we are desperate. Here's the chance for Richmond to pick the two best players they want or Saints to pick perhaps number 2 on their board, could even be number 1 on their board. We have to be happy, very happy, with the deal.......Not, "Yeah we took em to the cleaners" happy, but pleased with the outcome. There's nothing wrong with us taking FOS or Lalor iMO and then trading in later with our F1. You always pick the best player.
Saints competition is Richmond.
 
I think F1s will easily land a pick in the 14-21 range.

They won’t be so appealing from 10-13 and no one is trading out of the top 10 for one and forgoing a pick.
That is what it will be, perhaps. Each pick taken in the top 10 could be the player the club picking next was really after. That's why there's 5 min between picks to assess next steps.
 
I think F1s will easily land a pick in the 14-21 range.

They won’t be so appealing from 10-13 and no one is trading out of the top 10 for one and forgoing a pick.

That looks like the case with alot of teams wanting to trade into this years draft and extremely unlikely a team holding a top 10 pick trades it out for a F1.
#10 & #11 - Richmond
#12 - Eagles - 100% will take the pick with not much else
#13 - Port Adelaide - They wont trade that out as they only wanted a pick in this years draft for Houston
#14 - Fremantle ( wont want to trade out due to Warner possible trade , They will have 2 x 1st rounders next year to trade and wont want a 3rd to be targetted by Sydney)
#15 & #16 - GWS . This is interesting as they want to also trade up the board but are struggling to find suitors so maybe
#17 - Doggies also looking to use the pick and want to trade in with a F1
#18 - Richmond

If Stkilda are happy to trade out #8 that would be great for North but what else do north get for 2024 ?
as it still only leaves 2 picks

Maybe just take best Mid at #2 is the best option
 

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Doesn't the bolded suggest we may have the whip hand. We might interested in trading 2, but nothing has shown me we are desperate. Here's the chance for Richmond to pick the two best players they want or Saints to pick perhaps number 2 on their board, could even be number 1 on their board. We have to be happy, very happy, with the deal.......Not, "Yeah we took em to the cleaners" happy, but pleased with the outcome. There's nothing wrong with us taking FOS or Lalor iMO and then trading in later with our F1. You always pick the best player.
Saints competition is Richmond.
See I think this is were we disagree.

At 7 we are going to land someone we want.

Similar at 8 or we turn it into multiple players of the tier 2 calibre.

It’s evident you guys want another pick in the first round. But you have very limited options.

I think we both agree that Your F1 is likely a top 6 pick next year. It doesn’t seem good value to part with that for pick 14+ in this draft. As Twomey said last week, F1s just aren’t as valuable when being traded into this years draft.

But our future first for those same picks in the Vicinity of p14 is much better value for you then burning yours. Ours could be p5 or p12 next year. (Then you add on the academy picks and father sons and you end up getting a poorer talent)

So really, the whip hand isn’t going to lie with you blokes and it seems very unlikely you are holding p2 (**** imagine if you did and took Tauru anyway 😂) because you want more of this years first round quality and you can move into the draft and grab the bloke rising in similar fashion to Bont or Oliver late on or the most consistent tall in the class.

If this draft class had Reid and Sheezel as the top 2 picks. You would be getting a bounty and every clubs next father sons. But the way this draft is shaping up - it’s that even that clubs won’t bend to your demands.
 
That looks like the case with alot of teams wanting to trade into this years draft and extremely unlikely a team holding a top 10 pick trades it out for a F1.
#10 & #11 - Richmond
#12 - Eagles - 100% will take the pick with not much else
#13 - Port Adelaide - They wont trade that out as they only wanted a pick in this years draft for Houston
#14 - Fremantle ( wont want to trade out due to Warner possible trade , They will have 2 x 1st rounders next year to trade and wont want a 3rd to be targetted by Sydney)
#15 & #16 - GWS . This is interesting as they want to also trade up the board but are struggling to find suitors so maybe
#17 - Doggies also looking to use the pick and want to trade in with a F1
#18 - Richmond

If Stkilda are happy to trade out #8 that would be great for North but what else do north get for 2024 ?
as it still only leaves 2 picks

Maybe just take best Mid at #2 is the best option
North would land one of those giant picks with our F1.

They will happily take one into 2025 and keep one this year. They also have p21. So maybe 2 of those for F1 saints and F2 Roos.

They could target your later firsts aswell.
 
North would land one of those giant picks with our F1.

They will happily take one into 2025 and keep one this year. They also have p21. So maybe 2 of those for F1 saints and F2 Roos.

They could target your later firsts aswell.
Not sure they would TBH
GWS have lost alot of starting 23 players this year and would have no interest in sending picks into future drafts
They will be looking to trade up to a better pick or take the picks as they fall in this draft.

I wouldnt mind betting if North offered #2 to the Giants for #15,#16+F1 Gws would do that deal
maybe thats the best option for North but that would mean missing on Tauru & Armstrong

Taking #2 to the draft is looking the best case for North
 
But the club with the whip hand here won’t be the club trading P2. You’ll select the offer you like best.

I'll disagree here for one reason. Just because the media thinks we'll go for a tall, and BigFooty thinks we'll go for a tall, doesn't mean the club itself is thinking that way. The general vibe seems to be when talking these deals is "you'll get Armstrong or Tauru guaranteed here". It's not to say you're wrong but we've made no real indication we're interested that deeply in trading 2 (ie. Brady saying we might look at slipping back a couple of positions, we'd want good value etc). I think people paying attention would notice we've been very active in trying to move the F1, my personal summation is we're really not that keen to hand off the second pick in this draft. As such, if somebody really does want to go hard on making sure they secure a FOS or Lalor or Draper we have a pretty good firm grasp on said whip.
 
I'll disagree here for one reason. Just because the media thinks we'll go for a tall, and BigFooty thinks we'll go for a tall, doesn't mean the club itself is thinking that way. The general vibe seems to be when talking these deals is "you'll get Armstrong or Tauru guaranteed here". It's not to say you're wrong but we've made no real indication we're interested that deeply in trading 2 (ie. Brady saying we might look at slipping back a couple of positions, we'd want good value etc). I think people paying attention would notice we've been very active in trying to move the F1, my personal summation is we're really not that keen to hand off the second pick in this draft. As such, if somebody really does want to go hard on making sure they secure a FOS or Lalor or Draper we have a pretty good firm grasp on said whip.
I’d say the counter is that it appears everyone who is anyone in the AFL journo circles seems to think conversations are happening with you blokes trading down.

That tends to mean conversations are happening and you wouldn’t be wasting your time with them if it wasn’t likely.

But lots to play out. Can’t wait for the draft.
 
See I think this is were we disagree.

At 7 we are going to land someone we want.

Similar at 8 or we turn it into multiple players of the tier 2 calibre.

It’s evident you guys want another pick in the first round. But you have very limited options.

I think we both agree that Your F1 is likely a top 6 pick next year. It doesn’t seem good value to part with that for pick 14+ in this draft. As Twomey said last week, F1s just aren’t as valuable when being traded into this years draft.

But our future first for those same picks in the Vicinity of p14 is much better value for you then burning yours. Ours could be p5 or p12 next year. (Then you add on the academy picks and father sons and you end up getting a poorer talent)

So really, the whip hand isn’t going to lie with you blokes and it seems very unlikely you are holding p2 (**** imagine if you did and took Tauru anyway 😂) because you want more of this years first round quality and you can move into the draft and grab the bloke rising in similar fashion to Bont or Oliver late on or the most consistent tall in the class.

If this draft class had Reid and Sheezel as the top 2 picks. You would be getting a bounty and every clubs next father sons. But the way this draft is shaping up - it’s that even that clubs won’t bend to your demands.
I don't believe we are "demanding" anything though......All Brady has said is "We will look at sliding back a couple of spots".
Personally, I think our midfield isn't set yet, so FOS or Lalor both are very appealing to me. Not a chance we would take Tauru at 2, I think we like him for a teens pick, hence the dangling of F1.

Let's also remember what Twomey's job is.......that is to talk up the draft, generate clicks and get people interested in his phantom etc etc.
I like Twomey, but I'm not basing who I like on who he does......be like taking Shifter Sheahan's thoughts on every player as gospel......"Gee I like this boy, he's a steal at pick 56, a lot of similarities to Nat Fyfe!"

I'm not saying none of the proposed deals won't happen, but there is so much to play out here, I just don't see how North's under the pressure you suggest.

For all we know there is already an "in-principal" deal in place and it's all being stage managed by the AFL. It's cool though to talk and read about.
 
I think Draper (speed), FOS (versatility), Lalor (Power, versatility) and Langford (tall, big body) are the ones that probably make the most sense if we hold onto pick 2. I'd be happy with any of the 4 if I'm honest.

I wouldn't be against delisted a few more, but we'd have to improve our draft hand prior to the draft. No point delisting the likes of Stevo when our 2nd pick is in the 60's.

Realistically, I don't think it's looking likely that we'll have any Father Sons next year. 2026 is looking the most likely with Sam Harris and Aiden McCartney showing plenty. Archer Grant (2025) was on Sandy's list this year but only played the one game so still looks a long way off. As far as I'm aware, Fairley, Schwass, Pickett and Simpson haven't been involved in any elite pathways (Coates league ect) at this stage.

River Stevens (2024)
Zach Fairley (2025)
Kayde Pickett (2025)
Owen Simpson (2025)
Archer Grant (2025)
Kai Schwass (2025)
Sam Harris (2026)
Aiden McCartney (2026)
Wasn’t archer grant playing games in tac cup
 
I’d say the counter is that it appears everyone who is anyone in the AFL journo circles seems to think conversations are happening with you blokes trading down.

That tends to mean conversations are happening and you wouldn’t be wasting your time with them if it wasn’t likely.

But lots to play out. Can’t wait for the draft.

This time last year the media was trying to get West Coast to give up pick 1. It's fodder for filling pages.

I will certainly amen your last sentence. It's too far away from trade week, although understandable with VCE.
 

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