Game Day 2024 Trade Period - Lian Yu - that liminal space between trade and draft.

[FreoMatt]

Our early picks in the last 5 years are Sturt, Chapman, Amiss, Johnson, Erasmus and Simpson. Some good players in there and Chapman and Amiss will hopefully become star players but between them how many were in our top 3 players in a game this year?

If Bolton kicks 40 goals next year including a bag of 3 or 4 once a month that's the difference between 10th and top 4.

I’m all in for trading in Bolton, but In the last 5 years we have also drafted Serong and Young


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[Purple Suit]

Given the absurd interest in pick 13, seems we've really lucked out this year with how valuable 10 and 11 are seen to be. I reckon there's a good chance we've said 11 is off the table, not happening.

It’s because 11 + Extra = Pickett

Very valuable

 

[Superkoops]

Sydney have put forward 19, 22 > 13

What about we do a trade with Sydney and take 11 off the table for any deal with Richmond:
11,F3 > 19,22,F2

 

[chaosball32]

Since our rebuild started in 2016, we are 3rd in the league for number of selections used at the national draft with 35.

Of those 35 selections, 13 (37%) are in our best 22 today, 9 (26%) are fringe players, 5 (14%) have been traded, and 8 (23%) were busts.

By those metrics, it would suggest if we were to take 3 selections in this draft, only 1 would be a best 22 player for us in 8 years time. Law of averages isn’t the most reliable indicator, but it’s better then nothing.

And obviously our record since 2016 hasn’t been great. 1 finals campaign, perennial 10-14th finishers. Does our draft heavy strategy contribute to this?

It’s why I’m not as pressed as others about spending two 1sts on someone like Bolton who is a proven commodity and can come in and have immediate effect, especially for a team entering our window. Even if that means 10 & 11 and going to the draft with 18, which will probably blow out to an early 20’s pick anyway.

If this is such an even draft as many say, what’s the difference? The only players going in the first 15 picks will mostly be midfielders who we definitely don’t need more of in the short-term.

 

[freo_leo29]

Sydney have put forward 19, 22 > 13

What about we do a trade with Sydney and take 11 off the table for any deal with Richmond:
11,F3 > 19,22,F2

Dropping too far

I wonder if GWS will entertain 15+16 for 11 and 27, probably not but that isn't too bad for us

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'd rather just show some gonads and hold the pick.

 

[Ge3ks]

I'd rather just show some gonads and hold the pick.

Yeah!

 

[freo_leo29]

I'd rather just show some gonads and hold the pick.

My idea wasn't actually about hiding it from the Tigers, I reckon 15 and 16 is a chance to get Kozzy done, if it isnt then i think its a good shot at an Allan and Hannaford duo (Reckon Hannaford is coming in when twomeys next top 30 drops and our 27 will be pushed past 30)

 

[Tony_Clifton]

Since our rebuild started in 2016, we are 3rd in the league for number of selections used at the national draft with 35.

Of those 35 selections, 13 (37%) are in our best 22 today, 9 (26%) are fringe players, 5 (14%) have been traded, and 8 (23%) were busts.

By those metrics, it would suggest if we were to take 3 selections in this draft, only 1 would be a best 22 player for us in 8 years time. Law of averages isn’t the most reliable indicator, but it’s better then nothing.

And obviously our record since 2016 hasn’t been great. 1 finals campaign, perennial 10-14th finishers. Does our draft heavy strategy contribute to this?

It’s why I’m not as pressed as others about spending two 1sts on someone like Bolton who is a proven commodity and can come in and have immediate effect, especially for a team entering our window. Even if that means 10 & 11 and going to the draft with 18, which will probably blow out to an early 20’s pick anyway.

If this is such an even draft as many say, what’s the difference? The only players going in the first 15 picks will mostly be midfielders who we definitely don’t need more of in the short-term.

You think we would have a hit rate of one in three given our current picks of 10, 11 and 17?

Here are the players we've selected between 1 and 17 since 2016:
Now logically tell me again why you believe our chances of finding a good player given our current draft hand is one in three?

Is it because you didn't take into account the fact that our current picks are a bit closer to the pointy end of the draft and for the sake of your argument treated them as if they were random selections?

I'm better at this than you are.

 

[kuhni]

I don't mind the different arguments. But in recent history we are top 4 for drafting and bottom 4 for trading.

The realist in me would say play to your strengths.

 

[chaosball32]

You think we would have a hit rate of one in three given our current picks of 10, 11 and 17?

Here are the players we've selected between 1 and 17 since 2016: View attachment 2133847
Now logically tell me again why you believe our chances of finding a good player given our current draft hand is one in three?

Is it because you didn't take into account the fact that our current picks are a bit closer to the pointy end of the draft and for the sake of your argument treated them as if they were random selections?

I'm better at this than you are.

Why are you so pressed over a difference in opinion? All because I disagreed with you earlier that we shouldn’t take all our picks to the draft, especially with where our list is at? I’d say there’s a 90% chance Bolton will be a Freo player by the end of the trade period, it’s just a matter of price, so you may as well come to terms with it.

“I’m better at this than you are.” Okay? I never claimed to be some expert, it’s just my opinion. My comment wasn’t even directed at you.

 

[freo_leo29]

You think we would have a hit rate of one in three given our current picks of 10, 11 and 17?

Here are the players we've selected between 1 and 17 since 2016: View attachment 2133847
Now logically tell me again why you believe our chances of finding a good player given our current draft hand is one in three?

Is it because you didn't take into account the fact that our current picks are a bit closer to the pointy end of the draft and for the sake of your argument treated them as if they were random selections?

I'm better at this than you are.

I mean, you can argue that our actual good picks (atleast ones that rival Shai) are inside the top 8, which we won't be this draft

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

I don't mind the different arguments. But in recent history we are top 4 for drafting and bottom 4 for trading.

The realist in me would say play to your strengths.

That is hard to argue with.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

Why are you so pressed over a difference in opinion? All because I disagreed with you earlier that we shouldn’t take all our picks to the draft? I’d say there’s a 90% chance Bolton will be a Freo player by the end of the trade period, it’s just a matter of price, so you may as well come to terms with it.

“I’m better at this than you are.” Okay? I never claimed to be some expert, it’s just my opinion.

You've called me disengenuous when all I've ever done is refute your arguments with logic.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I mean, you can argue that our actual good picks (atleast ones that rival Shai) are inside the top 8, which we won't be this draft

Very good point

 

[chaosball32]

You've called me disengenuous when all I've ever done is refute your arguments with logic.

I didn’t call you disingenuous, I called your argument that the Shai Bolton trade is comparable to the Chad Wingard trade disingenuous.

 

[oldgoat]

I don't mind the different arguments. But in recent history we are top 4 for drafting and bottom 4 for trading.

The realist in me would say play to your strengths.

Or treat this as a big opportunity to up our trading game?

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I didn’t call you disingenuous, I called your argument that the Shai Bolton trade is comparable to the Chad Wingard trade disingenuous.

I'm sorry. 20 years ago I was you. Except I was posting on dockerland (in 2001) about getting Des Headland back from Brisbane.

Turns out I only joined bigfooty in2002. I must have scrubbed out my dockerland memories.

 

[Docker82]

You think we would have a hit rate of one in three given our current picks of 10, 11 and 17?

Here are the players we've selected between 1 and 17 since 2016: View attachment 2133847
Now logically tell me again why you believe our chances of finding a good player given our current draft hand is one in three?

Is it because you didn't take into account the fact that our current picks are a bit closer to the pointy end of the draft and for the sake of your argument treated them as if they were random selections?

I'm better at this than you are.

This probably should be super obvious but the value of the draft diminishes the later in the draft it gets.

The chances of us getting a good player in the top 20 is probably around 50% and the chances of getting a capable AFL player even higher.

Look at the top 20 of pretty much every draft outside of the super compromised drafts when Gold Coast and GWS came in and there’s probably 15+ players that played 100+ games and usually at least one of the guys that didn’t wasn’t given the opportunity because of injuries etc.

I’m still in the trade Bolton in camp but people that think the draft is some random lottery inside the top 20 picks need to do some research.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I’m still in the trade Bolton in camp but people that think the draft is some random lottery inside the top 20 picks need to do some research.

They might run into some odd little quirks as well.

 

[chaosball32]

This probably should be super obvious but the value of the draft diminishes the later in the draft it gets.

The chances of us getting a good player in the top 20 is probably around 50% and the chances of getting a capable AFL player even higher.

Look at the top 20 of pretty much every draft outside of the super compromised drafts when Gold Coast and GWS came in and there’s probably 15+ players that played 100+ games and usually at least one of the guys that didn’t wasn’t given the opportunity because of injuries etc.

I’m still in the trade Bolton in camp but people that think the draft is some random lottery inside the top 20 picks need to do some research.

I’m not saying it’s a complete lottery (it is somewhat) but when you look at our 1st rounders in the past decade the question is who would you take over a prime Bolton right now, taking our list needs into consideration.

Brayshaw, Serong, and probably Young too. Maybe Amiss.

Chapman, Erasmus, Cerra, Henry, Sturt, Logue no.

So that’s 4/10 I would value equal or higher than Bolton right now. A 40% hit rate is obviously higher then my previously suggested 33.3% but not by a whole lot.

Then you factor in that Brayshaw was taken at pick 2, Young pick 7, Serong pick 8 and Amiss pick 8. All pick 8 and under. Our current 1st’s are 10, 11, 18, subject to bloat.

And then you also consider if we were to take 10 and 11 into the draft we’d likely be drafting a midfielder, like a Bo Allan, who would be spending at the very least his first 2 years at Peel anyway. He’s not breaking into a midfield of Serong, Brayshaw, Young, Johnson, Fyfe with Erasmus and Brodie at Peel also.

So the question is would you rather a Shai Bolton who’s going to come into our team and have immediate impact and instantly improve our weakest area, or a midfielder who will sit at Peel for 2 years and might not even amount to anything anyway, and the answer becomes fairly obvious to me.

 

[fnerd]

Dropping too far

I wonder if GWS will entertain 15+16 for 11 and 27, probably not but that isn't too bad for us

I'd rather just show some gonads and hold the pick.

Hold it till draft night .
Then possibly look to trade .

It’s where you get maximum value bar none

The beauty of us being the position we are is we want for basically nothing once Shai’s on board AND this draft is also exceptionally even , in the range we’ll be picking in- there’s players of all positions available , so we’re in a position to get very strategic with our selections .

Personally I’d look to trade back with it then (if our targets still remain gettable.)
-just to give us one more bite at the cherry to sure up our depth before we hopefully go on an extended run

How that looks like on a personal note would be hopefully a berry /hannerford with our highest , Harry Oliver with our next then hopefully a Hamish Davis with our p30

That gives us small fwd, hbf and 3rd/medium tall.

Then with our last could look to draft another kpf(if we end up delisting jones)

 

[IlGolf]

They might run into some odd little quirks as well.View attachment 2133851

That’s interesting, I had certainly heard of the pick 6 curse before, but seeing that table it also stood out for me that the even picks in general are dodgy, 4 is worse than 5, 6 is worse than 7, 8 is worse than 9 and 10 is worse than 11!




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[Tony_Clifton]

That’s interesting, I had certainly heard of the pick 6 curse before, but seeing that table it also stood out for me that the even picks in general are dodgy, 4 is worse than 5, 6 is worse than 7, 8 is worse than 9 and 10 is worse than 11!




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Or it could be the curse.

 

[Midnite65]

The beauty of us being the position we are is we want for basically nothing once Shai’s on board

Given we didn't make the 8 we still need more than just Shai. For example Sharp and NOD show promise but they are no Gulden, N Martin, etc.