List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread

[SaintsSeptember]

Newnes mostly played as a competent but bland and inaccurate winger.
Then he started getting moved around into the forward line, where he was sometimes a decent mark but he also had some totally off games. ( 18 goals in 2018).

 

[stavro#4]

Most of those pick 6 clubs have premierships in that period so you would have to assume are pretty switched on in the recruiting department. I would suggest that most people will disagree with Yarran & Marchbank over Battle, so 6/25 is horrendous odds… 24% but still better than our own strike rate of converting players into draft picks.

You have completely ignored my point.

Show us the breakdown the way I said and then ask how many would take pick 6 to the draft or keep Battle

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

Forgotten Billings that quickly ay?

That's true

 

[kernelT]

You have completely ignored my point.

Show us the breakdown the way I said and then ask how many would take pick 6 to the draft or keep Battle

You want to see a range of picks 6-10 and in hindsight select the best player to support your argument?

That's cherry picking and a pointless exercise, we would have won the last 20 flags if we could draft in hindsight.

Why don't you do a little research on how many 200 game players we have drafted from all areas of the draft and then count how many we've traded out or pushed out for FA. The numbers aren't pretty and suggest we should hang on to good players if we can.

 

[stavro#4]

You want to see a range of picks 6-10 and in hindsight select the best player to support your argument?

That's cherry picking and a pointless exercise, we would have won the last 20 flags if we could draft in hindsight.

Why don't you do a little research on how many 200 game players we have drafted from all areas of the draft and then count how many we've traded out or pushed out for FA. The numbers aren't pretty and suggest we should hang on to good players if we can.

No, it’s based on strength of the draft you clown.

How often would you rather pick 6 in each year’s draft over Battle.

The strength of the draft is the indicator to apply against Battle. Not who was directly taken at 6 because there are a number of variables with that - not least that 5 different clubs may have taken 5 different players. There is no consensus based off one pick. The reason I’m asking for the next few picks is that it then removes the variable of strength - which should be the question that is asked.

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

You want to see a range of picks 6-10 and in hindsight select the best player to support your argument?

That's cherry picking and a pointless exercise, we would have won the last 20 flags if we could draft in hindsight.

Why don't you do a little research on how many 200 game players we have drafted from all areas of the draft and then count how many we've traded out or pushed out for FA. The numbers aren't pretty and suggest we should hang on to good players if we can.

Russell Greene, even skinny ugly guy to Carlton, & Guerra, maybe Plugger, will always haunt me,

 

[kernelT]

No, it’s based on strength of the draft you clown.

How often would you rather pick 6 in each year’s draft over Battle.

The strength of the draft is the indicator to apply against Battle. Not who was directly taken at 6 because there are a number of variables with that - not least that 5 different clubs may have taken 5 different players. There is no consensus based off one pick. The reason I’m asking for the next few picks is that it then removes the variable of strength - which should be the question that is asked.

Do your own research if you're trying to make a case against our history of cashing in players for picks.

 

[luca77]

At their best and injury free.

But when posing this hypothetical- show the next 3 picks.

Because all your post will show is who picked well and who didn’t. It doesn’t show the quality of the draft and that should be your actual argument.

Another idea would be to replace the non-mids in the list with the next mid taken in that draft. They tend to be less speculative and would give an idea of the mids generally available at that pick.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

He was too late in a pretty ordinary draft to be considered a "major disappointment".

The way he was tracking early in his career suggested he was going to be a very good player… I had Mitch Duncan vibes about him.

So yea, IMO he was a major disappointment


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[Winmar2Lockett]

Would you rather have kept Newnes for a couple more years, kept Acres and taken Serong instead of Hill/Howard?

Newnes is irrelevant in the Hill deal

He was an ordinary player & was rightfully delisted.


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[littlecreatures]

We live and die by recruiting and list management then. He's let Lyon get a mate in as LM. Selling off your better players for picks is something that rarely works. We went from not getting any players from the national draft in 15 years to deciding to go all in on it.

North, Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane all bottomed out and built up but not without years in the wilderness. If we start from now it might be another 10 plus years unless we nail every pick before Tassie come in. The danger is the cliff is going to come just as they come in.

I like Bassat because he's willing to spend but he seems like a limp dick cuck to Lyon. He's letting the him take us backwards with no timeline or KPIs. If that was a business that I had shares in I'd be crashing the board-meeting wanting blood.

The idea of a huge war chest but being uncompetitive and limited future is one we know well. No matter how much lipstick goes on a pig, it's a hard sell.

Sorry Gringo, but you must’ve been living under a rock when Ross was appointed and all of last year.

Bringing in mates or bringing in people he knows he can work with to build a performing culture and footy department under his remit as restructuring this club?

It’s been on notice from the get go this list was going to be padded out over the long term and capability strengthened across the core of the list. It’s pretty clear the 25-31 range are no longer leading this club moving forward. I don’t see reports of the leadership group being first and last to leave the club, spending time there over the off season.

We have a war chest because we’ve stopped paying $ for middling, overpaid junk, and need to set a benchmark with our list. Gone are the days we’re paying Acres, Gresh, Clark, Billings, Newnes, etc 600-800k.

Part of the problem here, including yourself is managing expectations across a supporter base which has lost a lot of trust and been burned for so long. One second it’s hey why are we topping up middle of the road junk, need to develop more quality, may as well bottom out, to why aren’t we getting more 25-30 year old B graders.

The pendulum constantly swings. We can’t stick with any sort of course, which inevitably comes back to managing these expectations. One thing we’re seeing with Lyon and Bassatt is there’s some actual leadership and direction with how we want prolonged and meaningful success, not sugar hits.

 

[stavro#4]

Do your own research if you're trying to make a case against our history of cashing in players for picks.

2023: Sanders (6) Windsor Curtain Caddy
2022: Humphrey (6) Mackenzie Clark Ginbey
2021: Rachele (6) Ward amiss Gibcus
2020: DGB (6) Hollands Cox Perkins
2019: McAsey (6) young Serong Flanders
2018: King (6) Smith Jones Caldwell
2017: Stephenson Clark Coffield Naughton
2016: sps scrimshaw Logue Brodie
2015: Francis Ah Chee Weideman McKay
2014: Marchbank Aherd Wright Cockatoo
2013: Sharenberg Aish Salem Freeman
2012:Macrae Wines Mayes Vlaustin
2011: Wingard Haynes Longer Tomlinson
2010: Conca Polec Caddy Heppell
2009: Rowan shepherd butcher moore
2008: Yarran Rich Vickey Ziebell
2007: Myers Palmer Henderson McEvoy
2006:Boak Thorp Selwood Reid
2005: Dowler Ryder Oakleigh-Nicholls Clark
2004: Williams Lewis Meesen Russell

Most years there is atleast 1 player better than Battle taken from pick 6-9. Probably not worth the risk.

Most years 2 are better and I’ve bolded them.

I removed academy and father sons aswell to minimise the talent available at those picks.

 

[stavro#4]

Another idea would be to replace the non-mids in the list with the next mid taken in that draft. They tend to be less speculative and would give an idea of the mids generally available at that pick.

Or that.

But that’s on the basis we take a mid and not BPA - which I don’t even want to get into as Trainor could be in our back to back pick range

 

[kernelT]

2023: Sanders (6) Windsor Curtain Caddy
2022: Humphrey (6) Mackenzie Clark Ginbey
2021: Rachele (6) Ward amiss Gibcus
2020: DGB (6) Hollands Cox Perkins
2019: McAsey (6) young Serong Flanders
2018: King (6) Smith Jones Caldwell
2017: Stephenson Clark Coffield Naughton
2016: sps scrimshaw Logue Brodie
2015: Francis Ah Chee Weideman McKay
2014: Marchbank Aherd Wright Cockatoo
2013: Sharenberg Aish Salem Freeman
2012:Macrae Wines Mayes Vlaustin
2011: Wingard Haynes Longer Tomlinson
2010: Conca Polec Caddy Heppell
2009: Rowan shepherd butcher moore
2008: Yarran Rich Vickey Ziebell
2007: Myers Palmer Henderson McEvoy
2006:Boak Thorp Selwood Reid
2005: Dowler Ryder Oakleigh-Nicholls Clark
2004: Williams Lewis Meesen Russell

Most years there is atleast 1 player better than Battle taken from pick 6-9. Probably not worth the risk.

Most years 2 are better and I’ve bolded them.

I removed academy and father sons aswell to minimise the talent available at those picks.

So including the recent drafts you’re still at less than 50%, even with impossible hindsight drafting.

Case closed.

I’ll take the 25YO player who is 95% chance to play 200 games and be around when our young guys are peaking.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Another idea would be to replace the non-mids in the list with the next mid taken in that draft. They tend to be less speculative and would give an idea of the mids generally available at that pick.

Nathan Wright/ Spencer White --> Jacob Ashby? Who?
Was Bont a mid or a forward?
Paddy. Probably Angus Brayshaw.
Gresham --> Fiorini.
Long --> Parfitt ( Mid/Fwd ). Lipinski.
Coffield --> Lachie O'Brian
King --> Bailey Smith.
Alison --> Nathan O'Driscoll
Wanganeen-Milera --> Hobbs.
Phillipou ---> Oliver Hollands

Kind of works sometimes.

 

[stavro#4]

So including the recent drafts you’re still at less than 50%, even with impossible hindsight drafting.

Case closed.

I’ll take the 25YO player who is 95% chance to play 200 games and be around when our young guys are peaking.

I gave you 20 drafts.

12 I think are better value. Thats 60%

 

[gringo2011]

The entire premise of the argument that you have conveniently omitted.

Is that whilst Battle is a good footballer. Him leaving could give us the ability to attain a second top 5/6 pick.

we haven’t had a pick that high since King in the draft. So the expectation would be flawed to say the kids we have taken should in fact all be delivering and pushing into the AFL side as one pick may not be enough of a high end talent injection with Tasmania on the horizon.

We may be back in the same or similar situation in 12 months and we would still in effect be 1 top 5/6 pick down from the chance infront of us as we won’t be able to let a Battle go for significantly more than he is worth.

King looks like he might play his whole career as an unfulfilled player in an average side. I guess ruining a few more careers can’t hurt.

 

[BrutThough]

The great thing about pick 6 would be the ability to potentially draft someone as good as Battle.

 

[gringo2011]

To end up in that range. We would need to jump the 3 sides ahead of us.

They have a 2 win advantage. That appears to be very very unlikely

Here is the ladder to help you understand. As you clearly don’t grasp the situation we are in.

View attachment 2032528

Ashcroft pushes us up one and Simone like Lombard could even push above us.

 

[stavro#4]

Ashcroft pushes us up one and Simone like Lombard could even push above us.

They aren’t available to us and we don’t lose the player pool that is unlike jumping above sides on the current ladder.


Next.

 

[ScrappyDo]

The way he was tracking early in his career suggested he was going to be a very good player… I had Mitch Duncan vibes about him.

So yea, IMO he was a major disappointment


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Flamed out under Richo. One of many

 

[gringo2011]

Newnes had a few decent years but was otherwise a major disappointment.

Hill was an instant upgrade. Maybe you have forgotten Newnes’ kicking blindly only to find the opposition.


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I reckon you’ve forgotten how shit Hill was in his first few seasons here

 

[Parkysp]

Well done on the co-ordinated attack by Pres and Coach today. Been a long time since we've seen that from our leadership for onfield matters.

Given our FIXture at the start of the season playing interstate and personal matters it's been hard to get to games. Looking forward to going Sunday. If we play really well and win I'll be happy. The Saints winning footy games makes me happy.

 

[gringo2011]

Sorry Gringo, but you must’ve been living under a rock when Ross was appointed and all of last year.

Bringing in mates or bringing in people he knows he can work with to build a performing culture and footy department under his remit as restructuring this club?

It’s been on notice from the get go this list was going to be padded out over the long term and capability strengthened across the core of the list. It’s pretty clear the 25-31 range are no longer leading this club moving forward. I don’t see reports of the leadership group being first and last to leave the club, spending time there over the off season.

We have a war chest because we’ve stopped paying $ for middling, overpaid junk, and need to set a benchmark with our list. Gone are the days we’re paying Acres, Gresh, Clark, Billings, Newnes, etc 600-800k.

Part of the problem here, including yourself is managing expectations across a supporter base which has lost a lot of trust and been burned for so long. One second it’s hey why are we topping up middle of the road junk, need to develop more quality, may as well bottom out, to why aren’t we getting more 25-30 year old B graders.

The pendulum constantly swings. We can’t stick with any sort of course, which inevitably comes back to managing these expectations. One thing we’re seeing with Lyon and Bassatt is there’s some actual leadership and direction with how we want prolonged and meaningful success, not sugar hits.

Replacing a range of GOPs with GOPs using high picks got us here. Poor drafting got us here. We were promised a whole lot of positives when Lyon came in. None involved trading our good players and dropping down the ladder for a sustained period.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I reckon you’ve forgotten how shit Hill was in his first few seasons here

I reckon you've forgotten how shit Ratten was at coaching. In fact, I'm sure of it.