Training 2024 training updates.

[sr36]

I am with you. I hate it when people mis-reference the aquisition of cheap players as 'moneyball' moves.

The only real AFL moneyball example is that of the Hawks. They figured out that kicking efficiency was the main defining stat of successful teams, and that left footers generally had a higher KE than right footers. So they loaded up with left footers as much as they could and the rest is history.

Tigers and pace? Plus devaluing height for flankers?

They're both guesses based on recruiting trends. But pretty likely that Tigers looked at stats on goals from turnover and targeted pace to cause more turnovers.

Re-evaluation of ruck. Re-evaluation of accumulators.

There's probably heaps of examples but clubs don't announce them or explain whether stats played a big role.

 

[jmac70]

Tigers and pace? Plus devaluing height for flankers?

They're both guesses based on recruiting trends. But pretty likely that Tigers looked at stats on goals from turnover and targeted pace to cause more turnovers.

Re-evaluation of ruck. Re-evaluation of accumulators.

There's probably heaps of examples but clubs don't announce them or explain whether stats played a big role.

We’ve clearly based our recruitment around tattoos.

 

[sr36]

We’ve clearly based our recruitment around tattoos.

We had some good success there, but more recently we've switched to becoming an hereditary principality.

 

[jmac70]

We had some good success there, but more recently we've switched to becoming an hereditary principality.

They are the ruling elite.

 

[Mesc]

Bet you guys are champing at the bit to see Lachie Schultz in action for ya. He is going to blow your minds.

 

[jmac70]

Bet you guys are champing at the bit to see Lachie Schultz in action for ya. He is going to blow your minds.

He had us at hello.

 

[Jen2310]

Here is a bit of jordy.

 

[jmac70]

Here is a bit of jordy.

He’s going to get even better this year.

 

[eyeroller]

Here is a bit of jordy.

Kirby Jordy smash!

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

We are talking about one of the best marks in the game in Curnow. Reef isn't even close to that. We can't draw parallels just because they are the same cm in height...

I wasn't making parallels. I'm merely saying height isn't everything when it comes to successful key forwards.

Yes, Curnow can mark. But let's not forget he also gets an awful lot of dubious free kicks too.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

And ultimately it's about trying to work out what is undervalued versus what is overvalued. If us going cheaper on kpfs is intentional rather than circumstantial then it would very much fit a Moneyball description.

Only if it is based on a single stat.
If it’s just because we can’t afford a better KPF….then no, it’s not Moneyball. But astute recruiting.

know I know…..anyway, back to training !!

 

[Jelly Bean]

Yes, and ability to take pitches, as I recall. Not being a baseball fan specifically I’m not sure how this is captured.

Sort of. Taking pitches is just an indicator of being able to control the strikezone, which is a characteristic of those with good on base numbers (and general hitting numbers).

 

[JuniorB]

We’ve clearly based our recruitment around tattoos.

Yeah, Ben Crocker is back for our VFL side.

 

[sr36]

Only if it is based on a single stat.
If it’s just because we can’t afford a better KPF….then no, it’s not Moneyball. But astute recruiting.

know I know…..anyway, back to training !!

The "single stat" was runs - scoring them and stopping them. for us it's goals - scoring them and stopping. They used statistical analysis to realise that a lot of evaluations of players was done on style or false beliefs and the fundamentals of players getting on base or throwing strikes was undervalued. Statistical analysis of Aussie Rules is a lot more complicated, but with teams like us and a fair few others a lot of statistical coach talk has shifted to score sources - and assumedly is an attempt to prioritise the things that actually result in scores for and against. That's obviously filtered into game plans and I'd assume that has also filtered into recruiting, changing the value of skillsets that are more or less likely to result in scores.

I think us having relatively cheap KPFs is circumstantial, but if it's because we've worked out that the high salary types are over-valued in relation to scoring contribution like the poster was suggesting, then it fits the principle of moneyball to me.

 

[Mollythedolly]

We’ve clearly based our recruitment around tattoos.

and mullets

 

[Obese Arachnid]

and mullets

Underrated fish by most, I'm stunned.

 

[magpies42]

Marty Clarke on return had a disease that greatly affected him..

Yes, Addison’s disease. My point was that clubs do take risks on players that have shown value. I can understand how the bombers brought Tippa back he was a gun.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

No, this isn't what moneyball is about though. It isn't about losing expensive players, and just replacing them with cheap players.

As has been mentioned, it is about finding a more accurate way to assess the contribution players make to wins, and since no one else values them that way, their market value is much lower. The Athletics held onto some very high priced players because they also flagged as strong in their evaluation criteria - they didn't just let all the high priced players go and pick up cheapies.

That was only part of what I said. I also said that they replaced their stats (on base) with other players (all cheaper) who had similar or even better on base percentages. At least thats my take on the movie. (I havent read the book if there even is one). Yes its about getting players who can provide the right kind of stats. But they also had to do it cheaply because they didnt have the money to compete with clubs like the yankies. Hence the term moneyball.

 

[No SPIN]

Kreuger is notable for his absence in training reports. Is he injured or just not having an impact?
If the later, then it’s a concern given the opportunity McStays injury presents.

 

[Mick F]

That was only part of what I said. I also said that they replaced their stats (on base) with other players (all cheaper) who had similar or even better on base percentages. At least thats my take on the movie. (I havent read the book if there even is one). Yes it’s about getting players who can provide the right kind of stats. But they also had to do it cheaply because they didnt have the money to compete with clubs like the yankies. Hence the term moneyball.

Not every side has twenty Wayne Careys. For over a century good player has been short for good ‘team player’.

Looking at a player’s total contribution is hardly new. Prestigiacomo was one of the first picked. Geoff Boycott got dropped after making a double century.

 

[CPH12]

If you’re going to be stubborn enough to keep the Moneyball definition based purely on the way it was used in baseball, have at it. But to me, Moneyball is a principle rather than a hard and fast rule, and therefore being able to alter it from pure stats to traits is a simple and logical way of applying said principle in a different sport. Open your mind, brother.

Considering the guy who developed it, has since been plying his trade in the nfl for the past decade, I would agree it's pretty adaptable.

 

[Jen2310]

Kreuger is notable for his absence in training reports. Is he injured or just not having an impact?
If the later, then it’s a concern given the opportunity McStays injury presents.

Not really standing out. But at least he's not injured lol

 

[Jafo]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nick achieve world peace - we're lucky to see him play and blessed that it's in black and white.

Though I can’t imagine lasting Peace between us the Baggers, Bombers, Tigs, Brions or the Handbags for too long.

 

[sr36]

Sort of, but not really. The stats based moneyball in baseball focused on players being brought in to do one job, in one role which they excelled in. I mean, if you really want to put numbers to it instead of just saying “run and carry” or “rebound from defence”, you could probably focus on meters gained as a pure stat. Either way it’s essentially the same thing in regards to Markov falling in the moneyball category.

Moneyball is pretty basic but spoken about as though it's not. You score more runs you win. They used stats to support the very simple idea that if you hit the ball more often and get on base more often you'll score more and win more.

I think the stats that have been the most moneyball relevant in the AFL are score sources, as like hitting the ball and getting on base they result in scores that win games. You hear McRae talk about score sources. Last year he spoke about us not focussing much on kickouts as it's not a big score source. The things that result in goals are likely the things that we focus on in terms of game plan, practice and you'd assume recruiting. It's all conjecture as none of them have spoken about it, but I'm convinced that the Tigers looked at turnover being the biggest score source and thus recruited pace to apply more pressure and cause more turnover - one round in their pomp they had 7 of the 10 fastest players recorded league wide by GPS. That to me is the same principal as moneyball - they may not have had as much statistacal support regarding their theory of targetting pace due to the more difficult ability to analyse AFL, but it's the same way of thinking.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Anyway, can't wait until training is back tomorrow.

Moneyball