USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[Gethelred]

Okay, we've had a good run. Some have had a good laugh and others have melted a little, but from this point we're improving the standard of discussion.

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www.bigfooty.com

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Play nicely from here, please.

 

[NSWCROW]

View attachment 2071107

 

[Blue1980]

I’d like to report a murder

I assume Seeds finds this offensive.

 

[E Shed]

Given that the GOP are doing their best to rig the legislative process in some key states is there anyway of countering this?

The Supreme Court has said basically the Prez can do anything, is it feasible to send in the Army or something to guard the integrity of the process?

 

[Blue1980]

Given that the GOP are doing their best to rig the legislative process in some key states is there anyway of countering this?

The Supreme Court has said basically the Prez can do anything, is it feasible to send in the Army or something to guard the integrity of the process?

Well if the Prez can do anything, the prez is Biden until Jan 21 2025, so....

 

[GreyCrow]

Did a Road to 270 map using 538 figures

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pgv90

 

[RedStarUncle]

Did a Road to 270 map using 538 figures

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pgv90

Nothing has changed recently in fact probably same truth as last 7 years. Dems path to victory only goes through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pensylvania.

Very small chance of Republican win without those states e.g. stealing an extra in the splitting states Maine and Nebraska.

Even smaller chance that Democrats win without the 3 rust belt states but still somehow swinging some combination of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, etc.



But practically speaking... 2024 election goes through the rust belt and the rust belt alone. Specifically PA, MI, WI. Everything else is noise.

 

[happy_eagle]

But practically speaking... 2024 election goes through the rust belt and the rust belt alone. Specifically PA, MI, WI. Everything else is noise.

Makes sense with the Walz pick, and why they are using Shaprio a lot on the campaign (helps that he's a very good speaker as well)

 

[GreyCrow]

But practically speaking... 2024 election goes through the rust belt and the rust belt alone. Specifically PA, MI, WI. Everything else is noise.

Yep and I did cheat with Pennsylvania by giving it to the Dems based on Shapiro instead of using the 1% margin to make it brown

 

[RedStarUncle]

Nothing has changed recently in fact probably same truth as last 7 years. Dems path to victory only goes through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pensylvania.

Very small chance of Republican win without those states e.g. stealing an extra in the splitting states Maine and Nebraska.

Even smaller chance that Democrats win without the 3 rust belt states but still somehow swinging some combination of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, etc.



But practically speaking... 2024 election goes through the rust belt and the rust belt alone. Specifically PA, MI, WI. Everything else is noise.

The chance of this election being 270-268, or even very possibly 269-269, is pretty high. And who knows what Trump supporters do if they're on the wrong side of one of those results?!

 

[_Cerberus_]

Nothing has changed recently in fact probably same truth as last 7 years. Dems path to victory only goes through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pensylvania.

Very small chance of Republican win without those states e.g. stealing an extra in the splitting states Maine and Nebraska.

Even smaller chance that Democrats win without the 3 rust belt states but still somehow swinging some combination of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, etc.



But practically speaking... 2024 election goes through the rust belt and the rust belt alone. Specifically PA, MI, WI. Everything else is noise.

I remember Ohio and Florida being two states that were often declared swing states. Florida has gone heaps more red these days. Ohio a bit as well. But its mainly the states that you listed now that will be key to this election.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are declared this years decisive states by election watchers.

Arizona will be the tightest state I predict, along with Georgia. Both used to be solid red states, but have become much tighter over the years. I think both will be hard to predict.

I can see the appeal for Walz in helping solidify both Michigan and Wisconsin as solid blue states again, and appealing to all rust belt states in general. Sharpiro seems to have done a decent job as Governor of Pennsylvania, and is popular there. Whether that translates to the Presidential race remains to be seen. All three used to be solid blue states, it looks like 2016 was a a slight outlier, and the Democrats recovered slightly at the last election. The Democrats cannot rest on it though, they still need to have strong campaigns there. All were tight at the previous election and potentially will remain so this election.

 

[RedStarUncle]

I remember Ohio and Florida being two states that were often declared swing states. Florida has gone heaps more red these days. Ohio a bit as well. But its mainly the states that you listed now that will be key to this election.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are declared this years decisive states by election watchers.

Arizona will be the tightest state I predict, along with Georgia. Both used to be solid red states, but have become much tighter over the years. I think both will be hard to predict.

I can see the appeal for Walz in helping solidify both Michigan and Wisconsin as solid blue states again, and appealing to all rust belt states in general. Sharpiro seems to have done a decent job as Governor of Pennsylvania, and it popular there, whether that translates to the Presidential race remains to be seen. All three used to be solid blue states, it looks like 2016 was a a slight outlier, and the Democrats recovered slightly at the last election. The Democrats cannot rest on it though, they still need to have strong campaigns there. All were tight at the previous election and potentially will remain so this election.

Don't get me wrong... I don't mean to say Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, etc. couldn't go blue.

Just as much as I wouldn't say Virginia or New Hampshire couldn't go red.



It's just that the chances of those happening WITHOUT Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan falling on the winning side are miniscule. At most you could possibly foresee Dems getting 2/3 of those but making up the difference on the Sun Belt (Arizona, Nevada). But polls suggest that's pretty unlikely. It was near impossible for Biden. Maybe Harris could carry some more popularity there, but picking Walz for VP suggests they're very focused on the Rust Belt Three.

 

[jatz14]

Would be good if Ohio was still in play, despite JD Vance being from there

The more closely associated with a state Vance is, the more unpopular he is. He is the anti traditional VP pick.

He was picked because he went down well with the extreme MAGA crowd, which makes him a dumb pick, they cannot vote any harder.

 

[GreyCrow]

The more closely associated with a state Vance is, the more unpopular he is. He is the anti traditional VP pick.

He was picked because he went down well with the extreme MAGA crowd, which makes him a dumb pick, they cannot vote any harder.

Yep - you can see the strategy the Dems used and the margins it can bring

Nobody independent or Dem is suddenly voting Red because of JD

 

[magpie_marty]

Would not surprise me if this election ends up in the supreme court.
Many states may not certify the winner and have elected pro trump people.

 

[Satan]

Would not surprise me if this election ends up in the supreme court.
Many states may not certify the winner and have elected pro trump people.

And you know thomas wont reacuse himself or be forced by roberts

 

[Present Not Past]

Would not surprise me if this election ends up in the supreme court.
Many states may not certify the winner and have elected pro trump people.

But that just means Biden remains President.
Gets his 2nd term by default.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

But that just means Biden remains President.
Gets his 2nd term by default.

Interesting outcome. But he'd still be within his rights to step down for his VP.

 

[Blue1980]

Would we though?

ie. pretty sure Republicans would have got Biden on that if they could, they tried for about 3 years to get him on literally anything they could dream up and failed miserably

Seems like you've fallen into the trap of just assuming everyone is as corrupt as Trump, its a common issue among his supporters.

FK doesn't believe anything he types, I give his troll attempt a 2.5/10.

I think many of his so called supporters do it for the bantz, think its all in good fun. Which it is, until it isn't.

 

[Blue1980]

Good pick for VP if he can provide Wisconsin and Michigan.

Would provide Harris with a possible pathway to victory if she can hold onto Pennsylvania, Virginia and Georgia.

This is a stronger ticket for the dems than either 2016 or 2020.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Walz looks a star pick who's going to appeal to folksy/military/mid-west types, but still energise the progressive base.

Fun uncle energy. Meanwhile they're up against a senile old man and someone's weird cousin who may or may not **** his couch.

 

[Blue1980]

Don't get me wrong... I don't mean to say Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, etc. couldn't go blue.

Just as much as I wouldn't say Virginia or New Hampshire couldn't go red.



It's just that the chances of those happening WITHOUT Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan falling on the winning side are miniscule. At most you could possibly foresee Dems getting 2/3 of those but making up the difference on the Sun Belt (Arizona, Nevada). But polls suggest that's pretty unlikely. It was near impossible for Biden. Maybe Harris could carry some more popularity there, but picking Walz for VP suggests they're very focused on the Rust Belt Three.

Yep I think strategically they look at 2016 and how Bernie was super popular in the rust belt states, and Hilary wasn't and they lost. Walz is like a Bernie Mark II with added willingness to attack the republicans.

 

[iBeng]

The chance of this election being 270-268, or even very possibly 269-269, is pretty high. And who knows what Trump supporters do if they're on the wrong side of one of those results?!

Dunno, they gave us a pretty good review of what they are willing to do last time Trump didnt get his way...

 

[pjcrows]

Gotta admit, Walz's couch troll at today's rally was solid.

 

[MtGHawk]

Walz was on fire in his speech today. He's got good personality and good appeal to the crucial middle class of the rust belt plus policy know how.

Shapiro was my choice but fantastic start Harris/Walz.

 

[Baldur]

But that just means Biden remains President.
Gets his 2nd term by default.

Frequently Asked Questions

Click the links below for answers to these frequently asked questions. Who verifies if a candidate is qualified to run for President? What happens if the President-elect fails to qualify before inauguration? What happens if a candidate with electoral votes dies or becomes incapacitated after the...

www.archives.gov

"What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?​

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.

The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.

The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no Senators so does not participate in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.

If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House."

The GOP controls the House, so Trump wins. No doubt appeals to the Surpreme Court would occur, so Trump wins.