USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[jatz14]

Saying dumb crap like this:



Americans are struggling with inflation and Harris in her latest interview, wouldn’t rule out tax payer funded transition surgery for prisoners. What a joke.

This is your hero. Good luck wokesters. You might be in the majority on Chiefs deliberately curated discussion forum, but in the real world you’re in the minority and are about to get your wake up call.

Go woke, go broke.

Every right thinking person knows that the way to fight inflation is to not perform gender surgery.

Here I was all this time thinking that Republicans had absolutely no plan to deal with real issues, when obviously, monitoring the gender of people using toilets is THE policy solution in all situations.

Inflation, check people's naughty bits.
Unemployment, check people's naughty bits.
Infrastructure run down, check people's naughty bits.

And if you need some naughty bit fiddling done, the GOP and Trump is the team for you.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[10571z]

The participation of trans women in women's sport is a highly complex issue. That's why it is best left to experts to balance the rights of all based on the particulars of the sport, the level of competition (ie community sport and elite sport are very different contexts), and of the specifics of an individual's transition.

It's something politicians should keep well out of because a) they don't have the expertise and b) there isn't a one-size fits all answer. Any politician who does wander into this territory is doing it for dog-whistling purposes only.

It’s not complex for many. That’s the point.

 

[bourbons]

But Trump candidates in close races didnt fare well in 2022

The former president has backed more than 300 Republicans across all forms of government in the November 8 elections,

However, a significant majority of his primary and midterm picks were incumbents in virtually non-competitive races, meaning they would have almost certainly won their respective elections even without Trump's endorsement.

Yep his endorsed candidates haven't done too well. Hope it transfers to this year's general but I have my doubts, there just seems to be something about support for the bloke himself that polls haven't been able to capture very well so far.

 

[Satan]

 

[bourbons]

Just a minute..how are the majority being discriminated against?
Or is it just, as I posted previously that in particular straight white males think giving equal rights to minorities is discrimination against said white men,

Yep, they view it as a 0 sum game where if some other group is gaining something it must mean they're losing something. Which is obviously pretty silly.

 

[Satan]

Projection much

Trump Detroit.mov

cdn.jwplayer.com

 

[liz]

It’s not complex for many. That’s the point.

Nothing much is complex for some people. Trump says he is going to “end inflation”. Great, he can just wave that wand of his.

You’re right. That is the point. It’s how we have an election where one party has some policies (however safe and uninspiring) while the other just has “concepts”.

Since a lot of issues are too complex for many people to fully grasp the detail and nuance, that’s why we have experts and leaders who should be guiding, not dog whistling.

 

[liz]

By extension it shouldnt be left to the voter either

To me that’s not “by extension”. It’s the exact same thing. There doesn’t need to be (nor should there be) national or state level policy or legislation that says trans women can’t participate in women’s sport or they must be allowed to participate in women’s sport. If there’s no policy there’s no place for politicians and no role for voters.

 

[Blue1980]

I disagree, mainly because she's not Trump/"orange man bad".

Don is a messy individual himself, but the Dems did themselves no favours by putting up another member of their Corporate Elite Half rather than a firebrand Progressive half.

Err who here thinks Kamala can do no wrong. I and others criticise her all the time, as we aren’t in a cult.

Your second part is 100% correct, if Dems went with an actual progressive they’d shit it in.

 

[Blue1980]

Lol old Bernie hey. They are already labelling Kamala as a commie on the right, they would have a field day with someone like say AOC.

They label anyone and everyone a commie, that doesn’t matter. Joe Manchin could be running for president and they’d say he was a commie.

It’s just words to them.

 

[Blue1980]

If the polls are even close to under-representing the Trump vote to the degree they were in 2016 and 2020 its over. I can see that happening, it kinda makes all the sense in the world that quite a few people will be voting for Trump but not really comfortable in telling people they will be. Trump pretty unique in that regard.


Midterms a different beast with Trump's name not on the ballot.

I think a few things in Dems favour which may not show in polls:

1. 2020 with Covid was unique and even then Biden still won, just not quite by as much as polls suggested but still within margin of error

2. 2016 was uniquely bad with Hilary

3. You can make an argument that 3 of the 4 elections in the trump era have gone the way of the Dems, basically everything since 2016.

4. Lots of new voter registrations in swing states

5. Big early voting numbers

6. The polls get a kicking if they underestimate the GOP vote in any way, if they underestimate the dem vote people are just like “oh well polls are sometimes wrong” and we all move on. Chances are they are more prepared to overestimate to the GOP than Dems if anything.

Now trump could still win, I just don’t think he will, and have Kamala winning all the swing states minus Georgia.

Even if she wins we will have all the stolen election conspiracies and efforts to overturn the result until Jan.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Betting agencies are not a reliable source in close races, as the favorite is more of a sign of where the money is being placed. In Polymarkets terms, a few pro Trump fans have dumped large amount of cash into it, which has lowered Trumps odds. It is also to protect the betting agencies from losing big money, if they kept Trumps odds high whilst people were loading up on it, and he won.

With Americas main voting issue, actually being voter turn out. Don't underestimate the impact of "polls and bets" on some voter mind set. "Trump is hot fav to win", can actually be a negative for him, as it means those "really cannot be stuffed voting" types, will sit back and think he is home and not vote. Same vice versa with Harris. Where if their candidate looks to be behind, it will push those who vote for them, to get off their asses a little bit more. In tight states, this could be a difference.

 

[Financialpanther]

Betting agencies are not a reliable source in close races, as the favorite is more of a sign of where the money is being placed. In Polymarkets terms, a few pro Trump fans have dumped large amount of cash into it, which has lowered Trumps odds. It is also to protect the betting agencies from losing big money, if they kept Trumps odds high whilst people were loading up on it, and he won.

With Americas main voting issue, actually being voter turn out. Don't underestimate the impact of "polls and bets" on some voter mind set. "Trump is hot fav to win", can actually be a negative for him, as it means those "really cannot be stuffed voting" types, will sit back and think he is home and not vote. Same vice versa with Harris. Where if their candidate looks to be behind, it will push those who vote for them, to get off their asses a little bit more. In tight states, this could be a difference.

The betting markets are more likely a skewed towards influencing things remotely (who knows how successful). Typically, the betting markets will tighten the closer we get it the polls remains within the margin of error.

There’s only one poll that matters and it’s in three weeks.

 

[pjcrows]

Is it true that US citizens are unable to place bets with Polymarket, only foreign citizens?

 

[Financialpanther]

Is it true that US citizens are unable to place bets with Polymarket, only foreign citizens?

Correct - it’s illegal in the states

 

[OneGreatClub]

Is it true that US citizens are unable to place bets with Polymarket, only foreign citizens?

Mmm plot thickens. Saudis have plenty of money for a start

 

[swingdog]

If you're a subscriber, I'd really recommend listening to the latest Economist podcast, Checks and Balances, which looks at US politics.

This week's looks at the gender gap in voting which has existed since Reagan, and in particular, the effect of notions of masculinity.

Key takeaways were:

• there are a lot of young men with impossible standards of masculinity that they admire but will never meet so are ripe for exploitation of others telling them it's not your fault. Strongly vote Republican.
• This is pretty much an American phenomenon, politically. Nowhere else has this sort of gender gap.
• Women have shifted more to the Democrats and turn out to vote more.