USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Cmarsh]

Because the sugar hit the dems got from the change from Biden to Harris is wearing off. Not unexpected. The bump Trump got post assassination attempt also wore off after about a month too.

Which one?

 

[pjcrows]

Seems Trump is still favourite on the betting markets, quite comfortably. Not really sure why.

The Polymarket odds have it at nearly 60-40 Trump. I think ultimately he'll win by taking PA narrowly, but 60-40 is silly. A few thousand votes either way could see Harris win.

 

[Satan]

Which one?

The third one

 

[Financialpanther]

The Polymarket odds have it at nearly 60-40 Trump. I think ultimately he'll win by taking PA narrowly, but 60-40 is silly. A few thousand votes either way could see Harris win.

Betting markets over react in one or the other direction. Main reason the money is being put on him is the polling out of Penn and the value at odd of $1.67

 

[Dazzler9]

Betting markets over react in one or the other direction. Main reason the money is being put on him is the polling out of Penn and the value at odd of $1.67

$1.67 is not good value to me....

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

WAAAAAAH! I'M THE RICHEST PERSON IN HISTORY AND I WANNA BUY AN ELECTION AND NO-ONE'S GONNA STOP ME!!!

Elon Musk promises to award $1m every day to voters as he steps up campaigning for Trump

The billionaire’s Trump-supporting Pac will give the money to those who sign a petition that encourages Republicans to register to vote

www.theguardian.com

 

[Happy Mastenator]

The Polymarket odds have it at nearly 60-40 Trump. I think ultimately he'll win by taking PA narrowly, but 60-40 is silly. A few thousand votes either way could see Harris win.

Interesting research on how polymarket is being driven by a couple of big betters. It’s all part of the plan to try present trump as leading so they can riot when he loses.

The big betters on poly market will hedge very late to mitigate their losses but their work in setting a story will be done.

It’s what the right wing pollsters did last election. Showed trump up/tied all the way and then just before the election moved closer to reality so they can claim they aren’t biased

 

[swingdog]

Interesting research on how polymarket is being driven by a couple of big betters. It’s all part of the plan to try present trump as leading so they can riot when he loses.

The big betters on poly market will hedge very late to mitigate their losses but their work in setting a story will be done.

It’s what the right wing pollsters did last election. Showed trump up/tied all the way and then just before the election moved closer to reality so they can claim they aren’t biased

If they were wanting to influence the election, the big bets may be more about creating a sense that he's going to win and so others follow that lead when they vote.

It's why asking people to recall their vote in the last election is so unreliable. Few people want to report that they backed a loser and so report they voted for the winner.

 

[pjcrows]

If the "whale bets" are being done to shift the market towards Trump and make him look like the winner, it might actually backfire and encourage historically flakey voters (for example, younger voters) to go out and vote.

Odds and betting markets have always been a "thing" in US elections, but it's never defined the narrative. It's very different this time. We'll find out in a couple of weeks if it's reflective or not.

 

[CM86]

There are plenty of hard leftists - just to give one example - piping up from time to time saying exactly that.

They believe America is completely stuffed, and electing a Dem or a Repugnican is just rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.

I personally wouldn't go that far, but their reasoning is far from "clueless".

There are 'hard leftists' calling Sanders a Zionist, and saying that AOC is as 'bad as Trump'.
Those views are supported by right wing extremists. The people with those views are praised by right wing extremists.
Because it helps the outcome that right wing extremists want... MAGA.

This isn't a choice between Democrat or Republican.
Trump isn't a Republican,
Trump is MAGA.
There is almost nothing left of the Republican party.

The Dems have lurched even more to the right to fill in the void created by the Republican party collapsing into the extreme right MAGA.

You can't rightly hate the Dems and what they stand for, but at the very minimum they will still work corruptly within a system of Government.
MAGA won't...

Punishing the Dems, rewards MAGA.

If people don't want to be seen as equivocating for Trump, they need to actually call out the people who obviously DO support Trump, but use the same talking points.



To me, it's like saying Harry and Travis are just as bad as each other, because anyone breaking the speed limit is bad.
You don't like Harry or Travis because you're against speeding and the increased risk of someone being hurt.
Sure, that's logical. That's fair.
But now lets actually compare them.

Harry will sometimes travel 5km'h over the speed limit.
Travis will always floor it to 140km/h, and takes shortcuts through parks and school playgrounds. And has already run over multiple kids.

It doesn't excuse Harry, but FFS SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE ABOUT TRAVIS!!!
Instead, we're punishing Harry because we all know they know better and we expect better from them, while ignoring Travis as he gets a faster, bigger truck with a bull bar.

 

[adogsfan5]

Interesting research on how polymarket is being driven by a couple of big betters. It’s all part of the plan to try present trump as leading so they can riot when he loses.

The big betters are not even from the US. Harris was the favourite not long ago and has been the favourite on a couple of occasions over the last few months (ahead 53.3/46.7 at one point in August).

Tin foil hat stuff this. Youre with Celebrity101 and his man made hurricanes.

 

[zumahawk]

That's genuinely difficult. Ultimately probably the Democrats, because they'll actually concede. But one of the reasons why their current mess exists is because they keep asking people to vote for them because they're 99.5% shit, instead of 100% shit.

I'm of the opinion that the "lesser of two evils" cycle that has been circling the drain for about four decades is a key factor in why Trump has been able to elavate to his current position.

I don't believe it's the Democrats mess. The Republicans cosyed up with Trump and have stuffed the US system to the point of insanity. Many right wing politicians are using talking points that baffle anyone with a critical thinking skills and whatever Trump says a good portion of their country believe him. Harris, for all her faults is a decent human of good character and that's a big deal.

 

[pjcrows]

I don't believe it's the Democrats mess. The Republicans cosyed up with Trump and have stuffed the US system to the point of insanity. Many right wing politicians are using talking points that baffle anyone with a critical thinking skills and whatever Trump says a good portion of their country believe him. Harris, for all her faults is a decent human of good character and that's a big deal.

The circling of the drain on both sides started well before the Trump era.

 

[swingdog]

There are 'hard leftists' calling Sanders a Zionist, and saying that AOC is as 'bad as Trump'.
Those views are supported by right wing extremists. The people with those views are praised by right wing extremists.
Because it helps the outcome that right wing extremists want... MAGA.

This isn't a choice between Democrat or Republican.
Trump isn't a Republican,
Trump is MAGA.
There is almost nothing left of the Republican party.

The Dems have lurched even more to the right to fill in the void created by the Republican party collapsing into the extreme right MAGA.

You can't rightly hate the Dems and what they stand for, but at the very minimum they will still work corruptly within a system of Government.
MAGA won't...

Punishing the Dems, rewards MAGA.

If people don't want to be seen as equivocating for Trump, they need to actually call out the people who obviously DO support Trump, but use the same talking points.



To me, it's like saying Harry and Travis are just as bad as each other, because anyone breaking the speed limit is bad.
You don't like Harry or Travis because you're against speeding and the increased risk of someone being hurt.
Sure, that's logical. That's fair.
But now lets actually compare them.

Harry will sometimes travel 5km'h over the speed limit.
Travis will always floor it to 140km/h, and takes shortcuts through parks and school playgrounds. And has already run over multiple kids.

It doesn't excuse Harry, but FFS SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE ABOUT TRAVIS!!!
Instead, we're punishing Harry because we all know they know better and we expect better from them, while ignoring Travis as he gets a faster, bigger truck with a bull bar.

Let’s face it, you’re a Travis enabler.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Captivating]

$1.67 is not good value to me....

View attachment 2148345

No, history shows the dems need a 5 point lead to have a chance. Conservatives are less likely disclose who they are voting for in polls, so polls always overstate the Dem's real lead.

A Dem lead of 1 - 2 points, as it currently stands, is saying the Republicans will win.

 

[CM86]

Let’s face it, you’re a Travis enabler.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I can't help it, he's got all the dank memes!
And I love how he triggers the parents!

 

[Dazzler9]

No, history shows the dems need a 5 point lead to have a chance. Conservatives are less likely disclose who they are voting for in polls, so polls always overstate the Dem's real lead.

A Dem lead of 1 - 2 points, as it currently stands, is saying the Republicans will win.

That was a Pennsylvania poll.

 

[CM86]

The big betters are not even from the US. Harris was the favourite not long ago and has been the favourite on a couple of occasions over the last few months (ahead 53.3/46.7 at one point in August).

Tin foil hat stuff this. Youre with Celebrity101 and his man made hurricanes.

Do you believe there is any truth to the view that the MAGA movement is trying to prevent a free and fair election? If so, how?
Or that it's just baseless fearmongering?

 

[adogsfan5]

Do you believe there is any truth to the view that the MAGA movement is trying to prevent a free and fair election? If so, how?
Or that it's just baseless fearmongering?

I think they are nutcases to be honest, so yes I believe there is some truth to that.

But I don’t believe people from outside the US have gambled millions on trump to win, to get him into favouritism on Polymarket, in order to purposely make people riot if he loses. Tin foil hat stuff.

 

[zumahawk]

The circling of the drain on both sides started well before the Trump era.

I'll stop the back and forth after this post I promise. I agree to a point but Trump is one of the most horrendous people to ever fall into politics so him losing in November would be a positive outcome.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

There are 'hard leftists' calling Sanders a Zionist, and saying that AOC is as 'bad as Trump'.
Those views are supported by right wing extremists. The people with those views are praised by right wing extremists.
Because it helps the outcome that right wing extremists want... MAGA.

This isn't a choice between Democrat or Republican.
Trump isn't a Republican,
Trump is MAGA.
There is almost nothing left of the Republican party.

The Dems have lurched even more to the right to fill in the void created by the Republican party collapsing into the extreme right MAGA.

You can't rightly hate the Dems and what they stand for, but at the very minimum they will still work corruptly within a system of Government.
MAGA won't...

Punishing the Dems, rewards MAGA.

If people don't want to be seen as equivocating for Trump, they need to actually call out the people who obviously DO support Trump, but use the same talking points.



To me, it's like saying Harry and Travis are just as bad as each other, because anyone breaking the speed limit is bad.
You don't like Harry or Travis because you're against speeding and the increased risk of someone being hurt.
Sure, that's logical. That's fair.
But now lets actually compare them.

Harry will sometimes travel 5km'h over the speed limit.
Travis will always floor it to 140km/h, and takes shortcuts through parks and school playgrounds. And has already run over multiple kids.

It doesn't excuse Harry, but FFS SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE ABOUT TRAVIS!!!
Instead, we're punishing Harry because we all know they know better and we expect better from them, while ignoring Travis as he gets a faster, bigger truck with a bull bar.

Thanks, but direct this at the people that are saying it.

 

[Nikita Blue]

WAAAAAAH! I'M THE RICHEST PERSON IN HISTORY AND I WANNA BUY AN ELECTION AND NO-ONE'S GONNA STOP ME!!!

Elon Musk promises to award $1m every day to voters as he steps up campaigning for Trump

The billionaire’s Trump-supporting Pac will give the money to those who sign a petition that encourages Republicans to register to vote

www.theguardian.com

Surely that is illegal.

 

[CM86]

Thanks, but direct this at the people that are saying it.

It wasn't AT you, it was a discussion WITH you.

I'm not attacking you or calling you out.
If any of my post did that, or seemed to imply it I'll edit it.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The circling of the drain on both sides started well before the Trump era.

Sure, I mean a lot of the gentlemen who wrote America's declaration of independence and their constitution were slave owners for chrissake. Country's been kidding itself ever since.

But it's Trump and MAGA who have turbocharged the current circling of the drain, no two ways about it.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

It wasn't AT you, it was a discussion WITH you.

I'm not attacking you or calling you out.
If any of my post did that, or seemed to imply it I'll edit it.

No, I wasn't taking it that way, just pointing out that I agree.