USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Happy Mastenator]

This guy does good work on PA results. Given its importance in deciding the winner worth paying attention to.

 

[Dazzler9]

This guy does good work on PA results. Given its importance in deciding the winner worth paying attention to.

This is the sort of data we should be focussing on, not the betting markets.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

This is the sort of data we should be focussing on, not the betting markets.

He speculates that Dems need about a lead of 500,000 prior to election day to feel reasonable. May or may not be correct on that number, but with 11% of 2020 turnout in already, it starts eating away at the ability of the GOP to make big gains come electoin day.

The key is getting all those VBM returns back as you can then focus on getting others to the polls on election day.

Hence the 48.4% returned for Dems is a good number. GOP voters who requested VBM have only returned 40.4% so hopefully they get lazy and don't return them, and then don't show up on election day.

 

[Dazzler9]

He speculates that Dems need about a lead of 500,000 prior to election day to feel reasonable. May or may not be correct on that number, but with 11% of 2020 turnout in already, it starts eating away at the ability of the GOP to make big gains come electoin day.

The key is getting all those VBM returns back as you can then focus on getting others to the polls on election day.

Hence the 48.4% returned for Dems is a good number. GOP voters who requested VBM have only returned 40.4% so hopefully they get lazy and don't return them, and then don't show up on election day.

Some back of the envelope maths -

506,320 x 100/48.4 = expected votes of 1,046,115

212,015 x 100/40.4 = expected votes of 524,790

So basically, on track for that 500,000 lead

 

[blackshadow]

Tattooing MAGA on your face to own the Libs

The pajama goober is like a dumber version of Ricky from Trailer Park Boys.

 

[FireKrakouer]

was Trump known as the Hamburglar?

Actually he has promised to finally lock that rascal up - unlike the soft-on-crime Dems! (Financialpanther make with the puns m8)

 

[Royces Hart]

Actually he has promised to finally lock that rascal up - unlike the soft-on-crime Dems! (Financialpanther make with the puns m8)

Hopefully he locks up plagiarists.

 

[Spearman]

What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.

I wonder if the campaign were given an invoice for hiring out that McDs for the photo shoot. Obviously they wouldn't pay it, but were they invoiced?

 

[happy_eagle]

What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.

And the smooth brains are eating it up

 

[Gough]

Horizontal stripes are not that man's friend.

 

[iBeng]

At that moment he was willing to risk it all to save those fries.

Note the Secret Service guy in the back ready to tackle him should the kid on the fries station decide to shank him with a sharpened spud.

 

[Romeoh1]

Horizontal stripes are not that man's friend.

Sure- but what is?

 

[beez]

As a complete aside, whenever Pennsylvania is brought up I always think back to this tweet from Rita on election night 2020. Just as infamous as Barry Cassidy's famous tweet in 2016.

 

[bourbons]

That's genuinely difficult. Ultimately probably the Democrats, because they'll actually concede. But one of the reasons why their current mess exists is because they keep asking people to vote for them because they're 99.5% shit, instead of 100% shit.

I'm of the opinion that the "lesser of two evils" cycle that has been circling the drain for about four decades is a key factor in why Trump has been able to elavate to his current position. Trump/MAGA is a symptom of a bigger problem and was inevitable.

Reckon I'd assign slightly more than 0.5% to the party that still thinks elections are a thing, before you even start on any other factor.

 

[bourbons]

WAAAAAAH! I'M THE RICHEST PERSON IN HISTORY AND I WANNA BUY AN ELECTION AND NO-ONE'S GONNA STOP ME!!!

Elon Musk promises to award $1m every day to voters as he steps up campaigning for Trump

The billionaire’s Trump-supporting Pac will give the money to those who sign a petition that encourages Republicans to register to vote

www.theguardian.com

lol

Just imagine the seething frothing mess conservatives would be if a leftist billionaire did something like this, they'd never be able to talk about anything else ever again.

 

[rumply]

 

[bourbons]

Agreed. Looking not at the figureheads but at the puppetmasters who would actually be in charge, it's a battle between the pro-science pro-free speech pro-technology pro-peace Vance/Musk/Thiel/FK ticket

C'arn m8, gotta go a bit subtler than that

 

[GreyCrow]

lol

Just imagine the seething frothing mess conservatives would be if a leftist billionaire did something like this, they'd never be able to talk about anything else ever again.

So much cognitive mirroring with this mob

Harris is a commie v cosying up to a Communist countrys leader

Creepy Joe sniffs hair v Trump convicted of sexual assault

And the latest is Harris is the spawn of the devil for saying '' go to another rally '' to people (allegedly) yelling out Jesus is Lord v Trump holding the Bible upside down and not being inside a church in 40 years

 

[Crankyhawk]

In fairness, that Twitter page shares so many different polls, some that has Harris in front. swan4life has just chosen to share the one that suits his needs.
That’s not the correct example to use.

the example being that swan4life uses selective polling to try to misrepresent what the likely outcome will be

 

[Borough Blood]

As a complete aside, whenever Pennsylvania is brought up I always think back to this tweet from Rita on election night 2020. Just as infamous as Barry Cassidy's famous tweet in 2016.

She’s a good sport to have not deleted that one.

 

[adogsfan5]

the example being that swan4life uses selective polling to try to misrepresent what the likely outcome will be

How’s that any different to other polls that get shared on here though?
Someone will share a poll if it’s in line with what they are hoping for.

 

[happy_eagle]

How’s that any different to other polls that get shared on here though?
Someone will share a poll if it’s in line with what they are hoping for.

Do you think that the betting markets are an accurate representation of where things are at ?

I think it will be close, and at this stage I'd have Trump marginally ahead (who knows why at this stage), but not 60% or $1.60 like the betting odds seem to have him at.

 

[bourbons]

Imagine if Texas did secede one day from the US.
All their residents with any intelligence would get the hell out of there.
Imagine how far the IQ of Texas would fall. Easy to control then I guess.

A mate from NZ has a good line - moved from New Zealand to Australia and raised the average IQ of both countries

 

[Bloods86]

How’s that any different to other polls that get shared on here though?
Someone will share a poll if it’s in line with what they are hoping for.

I suspect you didn't bother to look at the margins of some of those "polls" (which weren't polls).

There's a difference between selectively posting polls that show your preference a bit ahead in close swing states, and posting utter trash as "polls" while trying to portray yourself as the smart one in the room, despite constantly betraying your lack of knowledge about political terminology and history.

That's why that particular poster, with years of similar troll-like behaviour across a number of politics boards, gets the disdain they do.

 

[OneGreatClub]

And everyday MAGAS pretend Musk
Is unbiased and just about free speech How naive do you have to be?