This guy does good work on PA results. Given its importance in deciding the winner worth paying attention to.
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This guy does good work on PA results. Given its importance in deciding the winner worth paying attention to.
He speculates that Dems need about a lead of 500,000 prior to election day to feel reasonable. May or may not be correct on that number, but with 11% of 2020 turnout in already, it starts eating away at the ability of the GOP to make big gains come electoin day.This is the sort of data we should be focussing on, not the betting markets.
Some back of the envelope maths -He speculates that Dems need about a lead of 500,000 prior to election day to feel reasonable. May or may not be correct on that number, but with 11% of 2020 turnout in already, it starts eating away at the ability of the GOP to make big gains come electoin day.
The key is getting all those VBM returns back as you can then focus on getting others to the polls on election day.
Hence the 48.4% returned for Dems is a good number. GOP voters who requested VBM have only returned 40.4% so hopefully they get lazy and don't return them, and then don't show up on election day.
Tattooing MAGA on your face to own the Libs
Actually he has promised to finally lock that rascal up - unlike the soft-on-crime Dems! (Financialpanther make with the puns m8)was Trump known as the Hamburglar?
Hopefully he locks up plagiarists.Actually he has promised to finally lock that rascal up - unlike the soft-on-crime Dems! (Financialpanther make with the puns m8)
I wonder if the campaign were given an invoice for hiring out that McDs for the photo shoot. Obviously they wouldn't pay it, but were they invoiced?What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.
And the smooth brains are eating it upWhat a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.
Sure- but what is?Horizontal stripes are not that man's friend.
Reckon I'd assign slightly more than 0.5% to the party that still thinks elections are a thing, before you even start on any other factor.That's genuinely difficult. Ultimately probably the Democrats, because they'll actually concede. But one of the reasons why their current mess exists is because they keep asking people to vote for them because they're 99.5% shit, instead of 100% shit.
I'm of the opinion that the "lesser of two evils" cycle that has been circling the drain for about four decades is a key factor in why Trump has been able to elavate to his current position. Trump/MAGA is a symptom of a bigger problem and was inevitable.
lolWAAAAAAH! I'M THE RICHEST PERSON IN HISTORY AND I WANNA BUY AN ELECTION AND NO-ONE'S GONNA STOP ME!!!
Elon Musk promises to award $1m every day to voters as he steps up campaigning for Trump
The billionaire’s Trump-supporting Pac will give the money to those who sign a petition that encourages Republicans to register to votewww.theguardian.com
Agreed. Looking not at the figureheads but at the puppetmasters who would actually be in charge, it's a battle between the pro-science pro-free speech pro-technology pro-peace Vance/Musk/Thiel/FK ticket
So much cognitive mirroring with this moblol
Just imagine the seething frothing mess conservatives would be if a leftist billionaire did something like this, they'd never be able to talk about anything else ever again.
the example being that swan4life uses selective polling to try to misrepresent what the likely outcome will beIn fairness, that Twitter page shares so many different polls, some that has Harris in front. swan4life has just chosen to share the one that suits his needs.
That’s not the correct example to use.
As a complete aside, whenever Pennsylvania is brought up I always think back to this tweet from Rita on election night 2020. Just as infamous as Barry Cassidy's famous tweet in 2016.
the example being that swan4life uses selective polling to try to misrepresent what the likely outcome will be
Do you think that the betting markets are an accurate representation of where things are at ?How’s that any different to other polls that get shared on here though?
Someone will share a poll if it’s in line with what they are hoping for.
A mate from NZ has a good line - moved from New Zealand to Australia and raised the average IQ of both countriesImagine if Texas did secede one day from the US.
All their residents with any intelligence would get the hell out of there.
Imagine how far the IQ of Texas would fall. Easy to control then I guess.
I suspect you didn't bother to look at the margins of some of those "polls" (which weren't polls).How’s that any different to other polls that get shared on here though?
Someone will share a poll if it’s in line with what they are hoping for.