USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Randomizor]

1. The American market is lucrative. For context NVIDIA, an American tech company is bigger than the entire economies of Germany and Italy combined. California is marginally smaller than the Japanese economy and would be the fifth or sixth biggest economy in its own right. Many exporters will happily eat tariffs because the profit is still worth it.

2. Tariffs will allow some local suppliers to spin up and compete. This will mitigate some of the supply issues (the most relevant market for this would be EVs, Tesla will suffer significant market share loss to Chinese car makers without tariffs).

3. If the tariffs don't work, it'll be abandoned before taxes are hiked id think.

4. Inflation isn't just supply and demand of goods and services. Wittgenstein's Ruler applies. If the federal reserve elects to reduce interest rates and engage in quantitative easing, seignorage and expansion of the money supply will mean a general increase in cost of goods across the board regardless.

If the federal reserve adopts a hawkish monetary policy with rate hikes, theres generally a contraction of the money supply as it becomes too expensive to borrow and investors park their cash in bonds and tbills rather than goods/service based investments. Consumers also spend less as repayment on mortgages increase. Inflation falls like a rock under this scenario.

What Trump is proposing (both tariffs and tax hikes) has wide ranging ramifications for the economy affecting many of the indicators the federal reserve uses in its monetary policy decision making. It's difficult if not impossible to fathom where things will go. My point is that no one can predict this with any level of confidence.

I think people can be excused for thinking that the candidate who has declared bankruptcy 6 times is probably not going to be the one to stumble upon a novel way of handling the economy.

 

[GreyCrow]

3. If the tariffs don't work, it'll be abandoned before taxes are hiked id think.

My concern with this - like all political promises is its easy to backtrack - but people vote based on it anyway ie Abbott promising not to cut ABC and SBS funding the night before an election

Nobody wants to pay income tax so this is a huge carrot to undecided voters

And its a lie

 

[Mick F]

Came across this article (did a media bias check on them).
Overall, we rate Brooking Institution Left-Center biased based on donations to primarily Democratic candidates and policy advocacy that slightly favors the left. We also rate them Very High for factual reporting due to strong sourcing and a clean fact check record.

Not sure enough has been reported on the gender gap and most polls I have seen don't go that deep on who was polled.

This year’s election puts the gender gap front and center for three reasons—one of the candidates could be the first woman president of the United States; the abortion issue has especially high salience for women and could increase their already high turnout; and the election in swing states is incredibly close.

The closeness of the election has created a daily torrent of speculation about which subgroups are leaning to which candidate.

In the last presidential election, women accounted for 54.7% of the electorate and men accounted for 44%. And of course, there are simply more adult women than men in the population, especially among the elderly.2 In the seven swing states we looked at for this analysis, women composed a larger share of the electorate in 2020 than men, with one exception, Wisconsin, where, according to exit polls, 50% were men and 50% were women.

Pennsylvania. In a recent Marist poll, women supported Harris by 55% to 43% for Trump, while men supported Harris by 44% and Trump by 54%. In the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, women accounted for more votes than men—they were 53% of the electorate, and men were 47%. There were a total of 6,915,283 ballots cast in Pennsylvania in 2020, most of which were cast by women, amounting to 3,665,100 votes.

In North Carolina, Harris is currently getting 54% of the women’s vote, and Trump is getting the exact same percentage (54%) of the men’s vote. If men and women voted in the same numbers, these votes would cancel each other out.

Michigan, where the presidential gender gap and the turnout gender gap is large, the results can be impressive. In Michigan, a Marist poll finds 56% of the women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump.

In Wisconsin, (according to a Marist poll) women currently favor Harris by 56%, and men favor Trump by 53%.

In Nevada, 53% of women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump, according to a poll by Emerson.

Georgia and Arizona are the only swing states where the 2024 gender gap in presidential preference favors Trump, and in both states, the gender gap in turnout is not large enough to help Harris. In Georgia, a CBS poll found there seem to be more men planning to vote for Trump (56%) than women voting for Harris (53%).

This exercise shows that if the composition of the electorate between men and women remains the same as it was in 2020, Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all states Biden won in 2020. She could also win North Carolina (which Biden lost in 2020) but by a very narrow margin. Trump would win Arizona and Georgia, two states Biden won in 2020. This would result in a Harris win in the Electoral College.

Of course, the assumptions in this analysis could easily change next month. The abortion referendum in Arizona, for instance, has the potential to boost the women’s vote past what it was in 2020, and that could be good for Harris. What will not change is that the importance of the gender gap in presidential preference is highly dependent on the existence of a gender gap in turnout. The reality of both gender gaps has hit the Republican Party hard; candidates across the board are scrambling to soften or even repeal their former statements on abortion

The most important, whilst disappointing, thing that Donald Trump did as a presidential candidate (and resultant President) was hold a mirror to the nation and ask, “Is this who you want to be?”

The antithesis of the taciturn masculinities famously embodied by actors Gary Cooper, John Wayne and later Clint Eastwood.

 

[Mick F]

I think people can be excused for thinking that the candidate who has declared bankruptcy 6 times is probably not going to be the one to stumble upon a novel way of handling the economy.

Old mate must have been in a coma when China froze the imports of U.S. grown crops, due to Trump’s tariffs - sending many farmers ‘to the wall’.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

It can be explained but you are clearly incapable of understanding it. It actually is as simple as trade war and increased costs. But never argue with an idiot as they will simply repeat their simple rubbish as they are incapable of understanding the reality.

Ignore button do your thing.

Macro Economics 101 - tariffs increase costs on imports which can , in theory , assist local manufacturers/producers be more competitive.
However , in the real world , not all imports can be replaced locally which increases their cost - locals pay more as they have no alternative.
Also , tariffs are protectionist , which discourage local producers/manufacturers from becoming more productive.
Also local producers / manufacturers can increase prices to just below the new tariff price so they are more competitive but also make more margin.
This is why economists are forecasting Trump's Tariff measure will be highly inflationary...................

 

[rumply]

 

[Captivating]

I think people can be excused for thinking that the candidate who has declared bankruptcy 6 times is probably not going to be the one to stumble upon a novel way of handling the economy.

Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy.

Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy. Does that mean every shareholder has filed for bankruptcy?

 

[blackshadow]

1. The American market is lucrative. For context NVIDIA, an American tech company is bigger than the entire economies of Germany and Italy combined. California is marginally smaller than the Japanese economy and would be the fifth or sixth biggest economy in its own right. Many exporters will happily eat tariffs because the profit is still worth it.

2. Tariffs will allow some local suppliers to spin up and compete. This will mitigate some of the supply issues (the most relevant market for this would be EVs, Tesla will suffer significant market share loss to Chinese car makers without tariffs).

3. If the tariffs don't work, it'll be abandoned before taxes are hiked id think.

4. Inflation isn't just supply and demand of goods and services. Wittgenstein's Ruler applies. If the federal reserve elects to reduce interest rates and engage in quantitative easing, seignorage and expansion of the money supply will mean a general increase in cost of goods across the board regardless.

If the federal reserve adopts a hawkish monetary policy with rate hikes, theres generally a contraction of the money supply as it becomes too expensive to borrow and investors park their cash in bonds and tbills rather than goods/service based investments. Consumers also spend less as repayment on mortgages increase. Inflation falls like a rock under this scenario.

What Trump is proposing (both tariffs and tax hikes) has wide ranging ramifications for the economy affecting many of the indicators the federal reserve uses in its monetary policy decision making. It's difficult if not impossible to fathom where things will go. My point is that no one can predict this with any level of confidence.

NVIDIA is an American company but their manufacturing is done in Taiwan so all their goods coming into the US would be subject to Trump's tariffs. They didn't get to be the size they are by eating tariffs - guess who's going to be paying those tariffs in the US (I'll give you a hint it won't be NVIDIA and it won't be the Taiwanese government).

 

[Captivating]

1. The American market is lucrative. For context NVIDIA, an American tech company is bigger than the entire economies of Germany and Italy combined. California is marginally smaller than the Japanese economy and would be the fifth or sixth biggest economy in its own right. Many exporters will happily eat tariffs because the profit is still worth it.

I don't know why people compare market cap of a company to GDP of an economy other than to create a headline.

Nvidia sales $145 billion
Germany GDP $5.82 trillion

 

[Randomizor]

Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy.

Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy. Does that mean every shareholder has filed for bankruptcy?

I’d certainly be a little hesitant to hire the owner of a company that went bankrupt. Let alone 6 of them…

 

[Satan]

The AUKUS subs plan could be torn up if Donald Trump is re-elected next week, according to a former top Republican party security adviser.

John Bolton, former US ambassador to the United Nations, said AUKUS would undergo a major review under an incoming Trump administration.

“I think it could be in jeopardy,” he told 7NEWS.

“All Trump looks at is the balance sheet, and if he sees more US expenditure than those of other parties to the agreement, then I think there will be trouble.”

Ambassador Bolton is now encouraging Australia to mount arguments in favour of the alliance if Mr Trump wins the election.

“You’ve got to explain that these Australian submarines can patrol the Indian Ocean and the waters of the Pacific around Australia (and) southeast Asia.”

“This is an incredible addition to … American national security. That’s what he (Trump) needs to understand,” Ambassador Bolton said.

 

[Satan]

I’d certainly be a little hesitant to hire the owner of a company that went bankrupt. Let alone 6 of them…

How do casinos go broke , the house never loses unless owned by Trump

 

[100action]

I don't know why people compare market cap of a company to GDP of an economy other than to create a headline.

Nvidia sales $145 billion
Germany GDP $5.82 trillion

The point within the context of the post is to highlight the size of the economy/market.

When the company becomes large enough through mainly local operations to reach that size and that institutions and retail have the capital to bid companies to that size, it provides a certain overview on the size of the American market.

 

[Baldur]

lol what kind of 'head in sand, fingers in ears lalala' nonsense is this.

Tarriffs absolutely increase the cost of items. That's literally what they're designed to do.

Macro Economics 101 - tariffs increase costs on imports which can , in theory , assist local manufacturers/producers be more competitive.
However , in the real world , not all imports can be replaced locally which increases their cost - locals pay more as they have no alternative.
Also , tariffs are protectionist , which discourage local producers/manufacturers from becoming more productive.
Also local producers / manufacturers can increase prices to just below the new tariff price so they are more competitive but also make more margin.
This is why economists are forecasting Trump's Tariff measure will be highly inflationary...................

Yep

Tariffs are a great idea in the same way that investing with that nice Mr Ponzi who promises high returns is a great idea. But some fools continue to think otherwise.

Imports occur due to the import being cheaper or having some other advantage that the domestic product does not. Raising the price of the import makes both nations worse off. In practice the damaged victims will retaliate with their own and a trade war begins.

We have avoided another great depression in part because no major trading nation has replayed the Smoot-Hawley lunacy. Now the US wants to do even worse.

Crowd facepalm gif.

 

[Captivating]

I’d certainly be a little hesitant to hire the owner of a company that went bankrupt. Let alone 6 of them…

That's your loss. Marvel filed for bankruptcy. So did American Airlines. Companies, including some of Trumps actually come out of bankruptcy.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

The audacity to try and insult the hottest woman on earth, WOW!!

Why didn't you get upset when Trump insulted her, very publicly? And completely cut her off?

I'm getting Ted Cruz cuck vibes here.

 

[Captivating]

The point within the context of the post is to highlight the size of the economy/market.

When the company becomes large enough through mainly local operations to reach that size and that institutions and retail have the capital to bid companies to that size, it provides a certain overview on the size of the American market.

But Nvidia is nowhere near the size of Germany alone. Germany's total wealth is more than 17 trillion. Nvidia's market cap is 3 trillion.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

You reckon the media has stopped opposing Trump?

Why do you so-called 'balanced' posters always ignore the super obvious? I mean, do you have any concept of Fox News bias?

 

[Saint Shags]

Not sure I'm going to have a lot of trust in that channel. And as I couldn't just post it here i had to create an X Post just to show you why.
I'm not sure what is more alarming. The throwing away of 3 years knitwork. Or the shift to Polling Analysis in 1 month.
Not even going to look at the type of 'analysis' done.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Which media? Many outlets call him a deranged lunatic, daily.

Aah, you're calling someone for a one-sided view of media behaviour? Hmmm.

 

[Cmarsh]

Didn't have a group of Muslim leaders endorsing Trump on my bingo card.

Why Muslim leaders are backing Trump for president

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

 

[100action]

But Nvidia is nowhere near the size of Germany alone. Germany's total wealth is more than 17 trillion. Nvidia's market cap is 3 trillion.

Market capitalisation

 

[Captivating]

Market capitalisation

View attachment 2152724

You said Nvidia was bigger than the economies of Germany and Italy. You posted the total market cap of the German and Italian stock market. That's not the economy.

 

[pjcrows]

Why do you so-called 'balanced' posters always ignore the super obvious? I mean, do you have any concept of Fox News bias?

Fox News is a joke. Have been since inception. Now a mouthpiece for Trump (they certainly weren't initially) and every GOP candidate before him. That's common knowledge.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy.

Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy. Does that mean every shareholder has filed for bankruptcy?

LOL. Trump loves people who gullibly swallow the tiny technical distinctions to pretend what happened didn't really happen.