USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[pjcrows]

Aah, you're calling someone for a one-sided view of media behaviour? Hmmm.

Explain?

 

[pjcrows]

The next week of Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada polling will be very, very interesting.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

What Trump is proposing (both tariffs and tax hikes) has wide ranging ramifications for the economy affecting many of the indicators the federal reserve uses in its monetary policy decision making. It's difficult if not impossible to fathom where things will go. My point is that no one can predict this with any level of confidence.

Are you sure Trump is proposing tax hikes? I thought the concept he was trying to sell is reduction (eventually to zero) of income tax, with the revenue being replaced by tariff revenue. Which, as many have pointed out already, is simply a braindead assertion.

 

[Crankyhawk]

1. The American market is lucrative. For context NVIDIA, an American tech company is bigger than the entire economies of Germany and Italy combined. California is marginally smaller than the Japanese economy and would be the fifth or sixth biggest economy in its own right. Many exporters will happily eat tariffs because the profit is still worth it.

2. Tariffs will allow some local suppliers to spin up and compete. This will mitigate some of the supply issues (the most relevant market for this would be EVs, Tesla will suffer significant market share loss to Chinese car makers without tariffs).

3. If the tariffs don't work, it'll be abandoned before taxes are hiked id think.

4. Inflation isn't just supply and demand of goods and services. Wittgenstein's Ruler applies. If the federal reserve elects to reduce interest rates and engage in quantitative easing, seignorage and expansion of the money supply will mean a general increase in cost of goods across the board regardless.

If the federal reserve adopts a hawkish monetary policy with rate hikes, theres generally a contraction of the money supply as it becomes too expensive to borrow and investors park their cash in bonds and tbills rather than goods/service based investments. Consumers also spend less as repayment on mortgages increase. Inflation falls like a rock under this scenario.

What Trump is proposing (both tariffs and tax hikes) has wide ranging ramifications for the economy affecting many of the indicators the federal reserve uses in its monetary policy decision making. It's difficult if not impossible to fathom where things will go. My point is that no one can predict this with any level of confidence.

Re point 3, that will mean that there will be a period of time were both tarriffs and income taxes are in operation (while seeing if the tarriffs work) and so consumers will pay higher prices with the same income.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Are you sure Trump is proposing tax hikes? I thought the concept he was trying to sell is reduction (eventually to zero) of income tax, with the revenue being replaced by tariff revenue. Which, as many have pointed out already, is simply a braindead assertion.

He was being a little imprecise but I got his meaning (tarriff hikes, maybe tax hikes on importers, but income tax reduction)

 

[Captivating]

LOL. Trump loves people who gullibly swallow the tiny technical distinctions to pretend what happened didn't really happen.

The technical distinctions are why Trump is a Billionaire and you're a measly Hundredaire.

 

[100action]

Are you sure Trump is proposing tax hikes? I thought the concept he was trying to sell is reduction (eventually to zero) of income tax, with the revenue being replaced by tariff revenue. Which, as many have pointed out already, is simply a braindead assertion.

You are correct I meant a tax cut or income tax removal. Sorry for the typo

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Explain?

Wow, really? It's very simple.

You reckon the media has stopped opposing Trump?

Disingenuous. Whole swathes of media have never opposed Trump. Especially the largest media outlet of them all, the Fox empire. You appear to have wilfully ignored this in suggesting the media oppose Trump.

Which media? Many outlets call him a deranged lunatic, daily.

So, now someone suggests no media has called his mental illness, and you don't accept that because some media did indeed cover it. Correct of course, but hypocritical in the context of the earlier post.

The mask is slipping, dude.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

You are correct I meant a tax cut or income tax removal. Sorry for the typo

Fair enough. But your whole argument fails under a tax cut scenario.

 

[Crankyhawk]

The AUKUS subs plan could be torn up if Donald Trump is re-elected next week, according to a former top Republican party security adviser.

John Bolton, former US ambassador to the United Nations, said AUKUS would undergo a major review under an incoming Trump administration.

“I think it could be in jeopardy,” he told 7NEWS.

“All Trump looks at is the balance sheet, and if he sees more US expenditure than those of other parties to the agreement, then I think there will be trouble.”

Ambassador Bolton is now encouraging Australia to mount arguments in favour of the alliance if Mr Trump wins the election.

“You’ve got to explain that these Australian submarines can patrol the Indian Ocean and the waters of the Pacific around Australia (and) southeast Asia.”

“This is an incredible addition to … American national security. That’s what he (Trump) needs to understand,” Ambassador Bolton said.

what so you're saying maybe a reason for australia to want trump to win (aukus is a dogs breakfast burning up money)

 

[Satan]

He was being a little imprecise but I got his meaning (tarriff hikes, maybe tax hikes on importers, but income tax reduction)

Has he ever been precise

 

[LuvtheKangas]

The technical distinctions are why Trump is a Billionaire and you're a measly Hundredaire.

LOL. You simp.

 

[Xtreme]

Why didn't you get upset when Trump insulted her, very publicly? And completely cut her off?

I'm getting Ted Cruz cuck vibes here.

Kayleigh is great but Trump is greater and he's going to make America and the world great again.

 

[_Cerberus_]

The next week of Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada polling will be very, very interesting.

It will be. And the early returns in most states show the Democrats are not performing as strongly as last time, in terms of the early voting advantage they had number wise last time. And that the gap is narrower at the same stage this time around. This is why the fans of the Republicans think they will win it with ease, and that they will take most of the swing states.

The real issue is, it is very hard to get a true read on the early voting compared to 2020. As 2020 was a bit of an outlier due to Covid. Plus the fact many are skeptical about mail voting, given the antics of the Republicans last time. And the fact in mail voting tends to be the main reason, or excuse even. For States to delay or slow down the vote count.

Whilst some on the Democrat side might be feeling nervous, and the Republican camp feeling confident. I say the events of 2020 make it hard to get a true gauge on things.

 

[100action]

Fair enough. But your whole argument fails under a tax cut scenario.

How so?

I haven't offered a directional position, merely that it is not possible to predict where things will go for inflation.

 

[troybe]

Anyone know if she has an onlyfans? Asking for a friend.

No but she’s on OnlyGrans

 

[Maggie5]

Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy.

Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy. Does that mean every shareholder has filed for bankruptcy?

Nice hair splitting there. Apples and sour grapes.

Although Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy, he has reportedly filed for business bankruptcy at least six times.

Tupperware last month raised doubts about its ability to remain in business after flagging bankruptcy risk several times due to liquidity constraints.

The company has $812 million in debt, much of which was purchased by distressed debt investors at a deep discount in July, according to court filings. Those new lenders had sought to use their debt position to seize Tupperware assets including its intellectual property such as its brand, pushing to the company to seek bankruptcy protection, Tupperware said.

 

[pjcrows]

Wow, really? It's very simple.



Disingenuous. Whole swathes of media have never opposed Trump. Especially the largest media outlet of them all, the Fox empire. You appear to have wilfully ignored this in suggesting the media oppose Trump.



So, now someone suggests no media has called his mental illness, and you don't accept that because some media did indeed cover it. Correct of course, but hypocritical in the context of the earlier post.

The mask is slipping, dude.

Not disingenuous at all. I equate Fox News' GOP bias with MSNBC/CNN's Democrat bias. They're the propaganda arms of each.

You think Fox is worse than MSNBC/CNN. I say they're the same.

"Large swathes?" Most of the mainstream media, bar Fox news, actively opposes Trump. You aren't denying that, are you?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Has he ever been precise

I don't know the poster well enough, he later mentioned it was a typo

It wasn't whether Trump is precise (which we know is so vague and senile that precision is laughable)

 

[Maggie5]

Why do you so-called 'balanced' posters always ignore the super obvious? I mean, do you have any concept of Fox News bias?

I can't think of one 'balanced' poster. They are in pro Trump anti Harris camp, try to soften but it is pretty clear.

Not sure why they don't just own it and argue their case.

 

[Maggie5]

Didn't have a group of Muslim leaders endorsing Trump on my bingo card.

Why Muslim leaders are backing Trump for president

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

25 Islam religious leaders in an open letter supported Harris.

The 25 Islamic religious leaders who signed the letter, which comes a year after the Oct. 7 terrorist attack that sparked the war, argue that Muslim voters have a duty to think logically about their voting decisions and that backing Harris “far outweighs the harms of the other options."

“She is a committed ceasefire candidate too and is the best option for ending the bloodshed in Gaza and now Lebanon,” they wrote.

The imams argued that former President Donald Trump is a threat to their community.

“Knowingly enabling someone like Donald Trump to return to office, whether by voting directly for him or for a third-party candidate, is both a moral and a strategic failure. Particularly in swing states, a vote for a third party could enable Trump to win that state and therefore the elections,” they wrote.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

How so?

I haven't offered a directional position, merely that it is not possible to predict where things will go for inflation.

You've dismissed the certain outcome of tariffs twinned with reduced income tax. It's been explained here on the last couple of pages as well as more widely in the press and broader channels.

Yes, economics is not an exact science (though it's far removed from astrology), but some outcomes are certain even if exact quantification is difficult.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Not disingenuous at all. I equate Fox News' GOP bias with MSNBC/CNN's Democrat bias. They're the propaganda arms of each.

You think Fox is worse than MSNBC/CNN. I say they're the same.

"Large swathes?" Most of the mainstream media, bar Fox news, actively opposes Trump. You aren't denying that, are you?

No, I wasn't denying it. Even now that you've cherry-picked, it was totally disingenuous to say "You reckon the media has stopped opposing Trump?".

You know it, too.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

I can't think of one 'balanced' poster. They are in pro Trump anti Harris camp, try to soften but it is pretty clear.

Not sure why they don't just own it and argue their case.

Exactly. No matter how much they wriggle.

 

[pjcrows]

It will be. And the early returns in most states show the Democrats are not performing as strongly as last time, in terms of the early voting advantage they had number wise last time. And that the gap is narrower at the same stage this time around. This is why the fans of the Republicans think they will win it with ease, and that they will take most of the swing states.

The real issue is, it is very hard to get a true read on the early voting compared to 2020. As 2020 was a bit of an outlier due to Covid. Plus the fact many are skeptical about mail voting, given the antics of the Republicans last time. And the fact in mail voting tends to be the main reason, or excuse even. For States to delay or slow down the vote count.

Whilst some on the Democrat side might be feeling nervous, and the Republican camp feeling confident. I say the events of 2020 make it hard to get a true gauge on things.

Some good points. 2020 threw a spanner in to the works for sure.