USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Crankyhawk]

You've dismissed the certain outcome of tariffs twinned with reduced income tax. It's been explained here on the last couple of pages as well as more widely in the press and broader channels.

Yes, economics is not an exact science (though it's far removed from astrology), but some outcomes are certain even if exact quantification is difficult.

well, his exact words were "its too hard to predict/ too many inputs going up and down". And dismissive of economists (who do often do not do themselves favors)

However there is ample historical evidence of tarriffs and higher prices to draw from.
And ample evidence of inflation with reduced income taxes.

 

[10571z]

This does a good job a painting her as a nut job

 

[GreyCrow]

This does a good job a painting her as a nut job

Team Kennedy

They proudly trumpet they have no affiliation and yet

 

[DaTBird187]

Do trump supporters actually believe schools are performing transition surgeries without parental consent?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

“They’re cutting off the penises, they’re removing the breast. They’re blocking up the vaginas of the children that go to school there.”

 

[Baldur]

Trumps plan is to replace income tax with tariffs, while not raising prices. The MAGA fools think this means they get to keep more pay which they can spend on more items. This is magic pudding thinking, everybody does not suddenly become richer due to tariffs, there is no free lunch.

First of course prices raise on items that must be imported. If there were large amounts of imports on goods that can be produced locally, the local product must have been either more expensive and/or a worse product. The local producer will increase their price to whatever new higher price enables them to remain competitive while still increasing their profit margin.

Furthermore, even when a local product can be made, increasing capacity cannot be done overnight, there will be a period when you do without or buy the more expensive import. Local production to the extend it relies on imported inputs will also have to pay more for said inputs and therefore be forced to raise prices.

Even if you magic hand wave all this away, you still end up with more money chasing the same or in fact certainly a lesser amount of goods. Which of course is classic inflation.

The next bit of bad news is the importing nations are not simply going to sit on their hands and cry foul at the damage done to their exporters. They will raise tariffs on US goods, US exporters will in turn be damaged.

The resulting economic meltdown will allow Trump to keep some promises to his faithful.

Unemployment is about 4% which may well be below the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. i.e. Not enough workers results in workers demanding more wages which fuels inflation. The US has been avoiding this by importing cheap labour, that is the illegal immigration. No jobs, no immigrants seeking jobs. And some workers will pay no income tax, afterall; no job, no income, no income tax paid.

There is no magic pudding; to increase the wealth of a nation you must increase its productivity. Tariffs decease the productivity and therefore decease the wealth.

 

[Randomizor]

Trumps plan is to replace income tax with tariffs, while not raising prices. The MAGA fools think this means they get to keep more pay which they can spend on more items. This is magic pudding thinking, everybody does not suddenly become richer due to tariffs, there is no free lunch.

First of course prices raise on items that must be imported. If there were large amounts of imports on goods that can be produced locally, the local product must have been either more expensive and/or a worse product. The local producer will increase their price to whatever new higher price enables them to remain competitive while still increasing their profit margin.

Furthermore, even when a local product can be made, increasing capacity cannot be done overnight, there will be a period when you do without or buy the more expensive import. Local production to the extend it relies on imported inputs will also have to pay more for said inputs and therefore be forced to raise prices.

Even if you magic hand wave all this away, you still end up with more money chasing the same or in fact certainly a lesser amount of goods. Which of course is classic inflation.

The next bit of bad news is the importing nations are not simply going to sit on their hands and cry foul at the damage done to their exporters. They will raise tariffs on US goods, US exporters will in turn be damaged.

The resulting economic meltdown will allow Trump to keep some promises to his faithful.

Unemployment is about 4% which may well be below the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. i.e. Not enough workers results in workers demanding more wages which fuels inflation. The US has been avoiding this by importing cheap labour, that is the illegal immigration. No jobs, no immigrants seeking jobs. And some workers will pay no income tax, afterall; no job, no income, no income tax paid.

There is no magic pudding; to increase the wealth of a nation you must increase its productivity. Tariffs decease the productivity and therefore decease the wealth.

The most telling thing about how horrible this idea is, is that this discussion we are having here is more detailed than anything Trump has ever said on the subject.

 

[liz]

Trumps plan is to replace income tax with tariffs, while not raising prices. The MAGA fools think this means they get to keep more pay which they can spend on more items. This is magic pudding thinking, everybody does not suddenly become richer due to tariffs, there is no free lunch.

Nah. You've misunderstood Trump's plan. It's all the foreign economies that will make up the difference.

It's such a brilliant, simple plan that it's a wonder no-one has thought of it until Trump came along.

 

[magpie_marty]

That comment coming from an adult is hilarious. Trump isn't taking the election seriously surely FK?

He also mentioned Rabbits are getting killed due to solar panels.
Add that with birds and windmills.
Kamala want's to eliminate cows and windows.

 

[Romeoh1]

This does a good job a painting her as a nut job

lol- get a grip dude.

 

[GreyCrow]

“They’re cutting off the penises, they’re removing the breast. They’re blocking up the vaginas of the children that go to school there.”

Strategy meeting '' Dont forget t mention the Trans ops where boys have their penises cut off - its important you nail this one ''

Onstage '' Penises, that reminds me , Arnold Palmer now thats a man who had a penis ''

 

[Baldur]

Nah. You've misunderstood Trump's plan. It's all the foreign economies that will make up the difference.

It's such a brilliant, simple plan that it's a wonder no-one has thought of it until Trump came along.

It has been attempted many times, this is basically what empires are, forcing other nations to pay for your economic wealth.

A case in point.

Economy of Nazi Germany - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

:When Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, he introduced policies aimed at improving the economy. The changes included privatization of state-owned industries, import tariffs, and an attempt to achieve autarky (national economic self-sufficiency)."

To make it work you need to loot the wealth of other nations.

 

[magpie_marty]

His white house press conferences were an absolute hoot.
It was the only enjoyable part of his last presidency.
Had to be seen to be believed, the best day was when he was asked a question he didn't like and requested staff to usher reporter from the premises.
Just gold Jerry.

Jim Acosta from CNN

 

[OneGreatClub]

She’s spot on

 

[Mick F]

Frustrating thing is Penn won’t start counting the mail ins until the polls close as well - gonna take days

So much for the fridge of coldies, watching the results come in.

 

[Satan]

Jim Acosta from CNN

when sanders re tweeted a dodgy video

The White House’s Video of Jim Acosta Shows How Crude Political Manipulation Can Be

As technology advances, we’ll have good reason to grow more skeptical about the videos we see. At the same time, we will struggle to make use of that skepticism.

www.newyorker.com

 

[Carringbush2010]

Kayleigh is great but Trump is greater and he's going to make America and the world great again.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The technical distinctions are why Trump is a Billionaire and you're a measly Hundredaire.

He sure does beg a lot for money for someone who is supposedly a billionaire.

 

[Carringbush2010]

This does a good job a painting her as a nut job

 

[OneGreatClub]

Yep

 

[Mick F]

Trumps plan is to replace income tax with tariffs, while not raising prices. The MAGA fools think this means they get to keep more pay which they can spend on more items. This is magic pudding thinking, everybody does not suddenly become richer due to tariffs, there is no free lunch.

First of course prices raise on items that must be imported. If there were large amounts of imports on goods that can be produced locally, the local product must have been either more expensive and/or a worse product. The local producer will increase their price to whatever new higher price enables them to remain competitive while still increasing their profit margin.

Furthermore, even when a local product can be made, increasing capacity cannot be done overnight, there will be a period when you do without or buy the more expensive import. Local production to the extend it relies on imported inputs will also have to pay more for said inputs and therefore be forced to raise prices.

Even if you magic hand wave all this away, you still end up with more money chasing the same or in fact certainly a lesser amount of goods. Which of course is classic inflation.

The next bit of bad news is the importing nations are not simply going to sit on their hands and cry foul at the damage done to their exporters. They will raise tariffs on US goods, US exporters will in turn be damaged.

The resulting economic meltdown will allow Trump to keep some promises to his faithful.

Unemployment is about 4% which may well be below the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. i.e. Not enough workers results in workers demanding more wages which fuels inflation. The US has been avoiding this by importing cheap labour, that is the illegal immigration. No jobs, no immigrants seeking jobs. And some workers will pay no income tax, afterall; no job, no income, no income tax paid.

There is no magic pudding; to increase the wealth of a nation you must increase its productivity. Tariffs decease the productivity and therefore decease the wealth.

Trump has zero interest in planning, which require him focusing, taking on information, on the gap between the desired and the actual. Rationalises his laziness by believing it’s pointless planning for a future that may not eventuate - ‘tomorrow never comes’.

 

[OneGreatClub]

They are pretty open about it now.
Miller is Satan himself.

 

[pjcrows]

You could suggest anything to Trump and if it massages his ego he will say "Yeah, why not".

 

[magpie_marty]

Old mate must have been in a coma when China froze the imports of U.S. grown crops, due to Trump’s tariffs - sending many farmers ‘to the wall’.

And only sent billions of dollars to the major company's.

 

[Bloods86]

Not disingenuous at all. I equate Fox News' GOP bias with MSNBC/CNN's Democrat bias. They're the propaganda arms of each.

You think Fox is worse than MSNBC/CNN. I say they're the same.

"Large swathes?" Most of the mainstream media, bar Fox news, actively opposes Trump. You aren't denying that, are you?

Ignoring talkback radio, local/regional networks such as Sinclair, print media etc a bit there.

 

[magpie_marty]

It will be. And the early returns in most states show the Democrats are not performing as strongly as last time, in terms of the early voting advantage they had number wise last time. And that the gap is narrower at the same stage this time around. This is why the fans of the Republicans think they will win it with ease, and that they will take most of the swing states.

The real issue is, it is very hard to get a true read on the early voting compared to 2020. As 2020 was a bit of an outlier due to Covid. Plus the fact many are skeptical about mail voting, given the antics of the Republicans last time. And the fact in mail voting tends to be the main reason, or excuse even. For States to delay or slow down the vote count.

Whilst some on the Democrat side might be feeling nervous, and the Republican camp feeling confident. I say the events of 2020 make it hard to get a true gauge on things.

And the Republicans will complain about the delay in vote counting,
As some States count the mail in voting last.
Republicans will scream rigged.
Trump will announce victory around midnight and demand the count stops.