USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[_Cerberus_]

A good day for polling for Harris in national polls, +2 and edging back out to +4. A bit of a surprise really this late in the campaign. Early voting has moved back in favor of the Democrats in Nevada, and Pennsylvania margin is slowly pushing out to 2020 levels. I am a bit nervous about Michigan. But Trump literally mocked Michigan, especially Detroit at his recent visit. Will be interesting how that goes down with the voters.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

 

[OneGreatClub]

A good day for polling for Harris in national polls, +2 and edging back out to +4. A bit of a surprise really this late in the campaign. Early voting has moved back in favor of the Democrats in Nevada, and Pennsylvania margin is slowly pushing out to 2020 levels. I am a bit nervous about Michigan. But Trump literally mocked Michigan, especially Detroit at his recent visit. Will be interesting how that goes down with the voters.

I still think there will be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted

 

[beez]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

If the markets are so manipulated why isn't Trump favoured to win the popular vote too?

Polls suggest, even if you account for alleged flooding of right-wing outlets, that Harris will probably win the popular vote but Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College due to the nature of swing states at this current time.

The betting odds generally reflect the moving polling averages, and it has always been the case even before the advent of Polymarket.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Keeping the riff raff out
Candace Owens banned from Australia

 

[OneGreatClub]

If the markets are so manipulated why isn't Trump favoured to win the popular vote too?

Polls suggest, even if you account for alleged flooding of right-wing outlets, that Harris will probably win the popular vote but Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College due to the nature of swing states at this current time.

The betting odds generally reflect the moving polling averages, and it has always been the case even before the advent of Polymarket.

Surely more males bet. Females don’t. That would affect the odds too.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[beez]

Surely more males bet. Females don’t. That would affect the odds too.

A team with more supporters than its opposition does not automatically go in as favourites nor necessarily implies they are going to have more money bet on them to win.

I think you can make the case that across all betting markets more Trump-supporting young men would be betting on them, but that does not necessarily suggest nor imply that the markets are manipulated or askew because of the Trump vote.

But markets are wrong all the time. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Harris wins comfortably. Nor would it would it surprise me if Trump does.

I have nfi what it going to happen.

 

[Randomizor]

Polls are being used to create this fiction that the election is a race. It's not a race where you accumulate points or beat the clock. It's only a prediction like a weather report. There is no "taking the lead" between a rainy day and a sunny one.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

The Americans who vote for trump may well be as you describe and higher info voters may be so disgusted by the whole thing as to not bother.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

think odds are a guide at best.

Trump was a significant underdog in 2016 and won

Trump was heavy favourite in 2020 and bets were almost getting paid out until the postal votes arrived.

The fact Trump is a heavy favourite now actually makes me think Kamala will win lol

 

[Blue1980]

Keeping the riff raff out
Candace Owens banned from Australia

I haven’t read why, but sadly I think it’s only due to her anti Israel stuff, am I right?

 

[Seeds]

Dems are saying men are bad? I didn’t get the memo.

Are you suggesting the dems cosy up more to the billionaires? They do too much of that as it is.

I think bezos is in on the plan for tech billionaires like him to have a greater seat at the table in a trump administration and beyond.

Its not my quote. Former obama advisor and democrat analyst.

 

[OneGreatClub]

I haven’t read why, but sadly I think it’s only due to her anti Israel stuff, am I right?

Controversial US commentator Candace Owens refused Australian visa for speaking tour

Immigration Minister Tony Burke confirms the conservative online influencer will not be granted a visa, saying: "Australia's national interest is best served when Candace Owens is somewhere else."

www.abc.net.au

 

[OneGreatClub]

think odds are a guide at best.

Trump was a significant underdog in 2016 and won

Trump was heavy favourite in 2020 and bets were almost getting paid out until the postal votes arrived.

The fact Trump is a heavy favourite now actually makes me think Kamala will win lol

This is a desperate election, on both sides.

It is anyone’s guess what the outcome will be.

I think there were many closet Trumpers in previous elections but they are all out in the open and proud of it now so their vote is a known entity.
They are also being told to vote early by the Trump camp unlike last time.

The unknown is the number of women that the SCOTUS ruling has energised and those republicans who have had enough of Trump but still fear him to a degree and will privately vote for Kamala.

And then there are the Muslims and the pro Palestinians who might not vote at all.
( which helps Trump)

Lastly the Evangelicals, some have turned away from Trump seeing him for what he is and others are being energised by Wallnau etc. and the big NAR rallies.

It is a total unknown but the Trump camp absolutely have to make it appear that Trump is winning both to keep him energised ( being the narcissist that he is) and to back up their fraudulent stolen election claims which will definitely happen if Harris wins.

 

[Nikita Blue]

Given the cowardice of other newspapers well done New York Times.

 

[Gough]

This guy seems nice.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I think there were many closet Trumpers in previous elections but they are all out in the open and proud of it now so their vote is a known entity.

Don't think that is a genuine theory. could say the exact same thing about the democrats. They are out and about also. Don't make the same mistake Hilary made in 2016. Plenty of people vote for Trump who are not vocal about it.

It is a total unknown but the Trump camp absolutely have to make it appear that Trump is winning both to keep him energised ( being the narcissist that he is)

Agin, how is this any different for the democrats? They would love to be leading the polls and betting too if they had the choice.....Trumps camp doesn't have to do anything the democrats don't also have to do.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

This guy seems nice.

Tony is very hit and miss

he missed this one.

 

[10571z]

Controversial US commentator Candace Owens refused Australian visa for speaking tour

Immigration Minister Tony Burke confirms the conservative online influencer will not be granted a visa, saying: "Australia's national interest is best served when Candace Owens is somewhere else."

www.abc.net.au

LOL. But we let murderers and rapists in..

 

[OneGreatClub]

LOL. But we let murderers and rapists in..

Who?
On speaking tours?

 

[OneGreatClub]

Don't think that is a genuine theory. could say the exact same thing about the democrats. They are out and about also. Don't make the same mistake Hilary made in 2016. Plenty of people vote for Trump who are not vocal about it.



Agin, how is this any different for the democrats? They would love to be leading the polls and betting too if they had the choice.....Trumps camp doesn't have to do anything the democrats don't also have to do.

The Trump camp will refuse to certify the election of Harris wins. They have basically said so.
The appearance of them winning ‘bigly’ is required to give some ounce of credibility to them when they try thst, that is my point.
Have you forgotten 2020 so quickly?
The Dems have not said they will refuse to certify if Trump wins.

And I still believe my first point is correct.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Hillary still triggers them

 

[10571z]

Who?
On speaking tours?

Not talking about speaking tours. But in the level of threat of people who have been let in this country she ranks very low

 

[OneGreatClub]

He “took a bullet” ( from a Republican by the way ) for democracy