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USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)
- Thread starter Financialpanther
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Spot on Mags.
Bias is a feature, always has been. The History of American Media Bias, Pt. 1: The 1700s
Factual content is a requirement for news media. Period. Fox, Newsmax, the griftosphere, fail miserably on that metric.
- Nov 16, 2022
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You're probably the only person outside the crazy Trump bubble in the US that has used that lame af insult
Is that more ScoMo incompetence rather then Trump being bad
Ghost Patrol
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- Sep 17, 2019
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You're probably the only person outside the crazy Trump bubble in the US that has used that lame af insult
I see you have met Stokey
Maggie5
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This info may be useful, the rules for counting votes before Election Day vary based on state laws.
The 14 states that don't allow counting to begin until polls close
Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and Washington, D.C.The 23 states that mandate counting begin on Election Day before polls close
Arkansas, California, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.The 12 states that allow processing and counting to start before Election Day:
Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Virginia and Utah.
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Tadpole
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- Sep 26, 2017
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The worse part is that there will be no consequences
Rogan endorses Trump truly earth-shattering.
.Also I like that you put science types in there as Trumpists. Good luck when the EPA is staffed by creationists.
Democrats internal polling has them behind in Pennsylvania.
The likelihood of Trump developing or initiating legislative reform is zero. Ryan and McConnell had pretty much finalised the final draft of the GOP tax cuts by the time Trump was elected, and the First Step Act was bipartisan legislation.
The Republican leader will work with the House Leader Jeffries to implement the legislation req’d for the governing of the country.
Ryan, McCarthy and McConnell largely ignored Trump - merely humouring him, as did much of the WH.
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Based on an interpretation of murky polling data, race fundamentals, vibes, and some hopium, I'll put this forward as my prediction for tomorrow:
Darkest 10%+, dark shade 5-10%, light shade 2-5%, lightest 0-2%.
Harris wins the popular vote by 5-6%. EC vote gets called for her on late Wednesday morning EST.
Donold declares himself the winner by 8PM EST Tuesday and throws another two-month long tantrum.
Senate goes 49-51, R control
House goes 220-215, D control
Darkest 10%+, dark shade 5-10%, light shade 2-5%, lightest 0-2%.
Harris wins the popular vote by 5-6%. EC vote gets called for her on late Wednesday morning EST.
Donold declares himself the winner by 8PM EST Tuesday and throws another two-month long tantrum.
Senate goes 49-51, R control
House goes 220-215, D control
- Sep 26, 2017
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But but for years Rogan supporters were telling me he was a RWNJRogan endorses Trump truly earth-shattering.
Also I like that you put science types in there as Trumpists. Good luck when the EPA is staffed by creationists.
So shocked
- Sep 26, 2017
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Just look at the Libs up in QLD they have guttered the environmental department for their mining overlordsRogan endorses Trump truly earth-shattering.
Also I like that you put science types in there as Trumpists. Good luck when the EPA is staffed by creationists.
FireKrakouer
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Good calls.
MSNBC was very good pre Trump, especially their prime timers like Maddow. Then it seemed like panels about what nonsense Trump said that day. Then they started getting strident about it. I started declining to watch then, though I'll still take Maddow. The more even keeled are better like Melber, Velshi, Ayman. Wagner's not too bad. Mika always sounds like an amateur and Joe gets preachy quickly, hard to watch.
I haven't done much CNN in a long, long time. I had three English cable news here, CNN, BBC, and Ah Jazeera. I usually watched AJ.
Fox was the same shit back in the O'Reilly days. Christ those chyrons could/can still be even more a departure from reality. My impression of their 'stars' is that they are lecturing uncritical children or elderly people; their tone of voice, receipt free statements, disgusting. I used to have some respect for Shep.
TYT used to be good. An acquired taste like really heavy bitter beer.
You got less widely heard news, and then you had to filter the heavy prog bias analysis. Sometimes correct though. Then they started screeching. Cenk is a buffoon, but he's competing for clicks. He's got some good analysis within his experiences. Ana, nope. Some of others originals are getting repetitious, so I watch less and less. Their subchannel TYT Investigates can be good.There are good foreign channels out there as well.
- Nov 6, 2014
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And where Russia was behind it.
- Nov 6, 2014
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MAGA seem to have gone totally tone deaf since the Epstein tapes news.
Strange that.
Strange that.
Good calls.
MSNBC was very good pre Trump, especially their prime timers like Maddow. Then it seemed like panels about what nonsense Trump said that day. Then they started getting strident about it. I started declining to watch then, though I'll still take Maddow. The more even keeled are better like Melber, Velshi, Ayman. Wagner's not too bad. Mika always sounds like an amateur and Joe gets preachy quickly, hard to watch.
I haven't done much CNN in a long, long time. I had three English cable news here, CNN, BBC, and Ah Jazeera. I usually watched AJ.
Fox was the same shit back in the O'Reilly days. Christ those chyrons could/can still be even more a departure from reality. My impression of their 'stars' is that they are lecturing uncritical children or elderly people; their tone of voice, receipt free statements, disgusting. I used to have some respect for Shep.
TYT used to be good. An acquired taste like really heavy bitter beer.
There are good foreign channels out there as well.
- Nov 6, 2014
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His crowds seem to have turned off in past 24 hours, maybe they have voted already, maybe they see him as a total bore, maybe he failed to pay the bus companies?
Have just listened to the last 538 podcast before polling day and my conclusion is that none of the pollsters know anything.
For example, half the pollsters are weighting by previous vote (even when people can't recall who they voted for or say they voted for the winner when they didn't) and half are not. So, we have an experiment. Fine. But in a proper experiment, scientists don't start announcing the results halfway through. I get that they have to because they're generally paid for by media organisations, but in reality they don't know any more than the rest of us.
Then there's the treatment of different plls. Discussion about the Selzter poll in Iowa was that it was an outlier, because it was markedly different from what it recorded before, but then the New York Times rep noted that their own poll had seen a 4 point shift to Trump in Pennsylvania in the past few weeks, but for some reason that wasn't an outlier....
The weighting thing - pollsters have spent a lot of time weighting for race, education and past vote. All good but then, haven't weighted for (for example) women and young voters, because they don't know what they are going to be. They might note that the two biggest issues in the 2022 midterms were abortion and democracy, but the focus is still on economic issues only. Maybe, just maybe, one of those 22 issues might be important for a sizeable portion of the population?
At least 538 does acknowledge:
And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.
So, what we have is an educated guess. Something slightly better than reading tea leaves but not as scientific as it's presented to be.
US pollsters are like old generals, always fighting the last war. That may be unavoidable, but stop presenting data like it means anything.
For example, half the pollsters are weighting by previous vote (even when people can't recall who they voted for or say they voted for the winner when they didn't) and half are not. So, we have an experiment. Fine. But in a proper experiment, scientists don't start announcing the results halfway through. I get that they have to because they're generally paid for by media organisations, but in reality they don't know any more than the rest of us.
Then there's the treatment of different plls. Discussion about the Selzter poll in Iowa was that it was an outlier, because it was markedly different from what it recorded before, but then the New York Times rep noted that their own poll had seen a 4 point shift to Trump in Pennsylvania in the past few weeks, but for some reason that wasn't an outlier....
The weighting thing - pollsters have spent a lot of time weighting for race, education and past vote. All good but then, haven't weighted for (for example) women and young voters, because they don't know what they are going to be. They might note that the two biggest issues in the 2022 midterms were abortion and democracy, but the focus is still on economic issues only. Maybe, just maybe, one of those 22 issues might be important for a sizeable portion of the population?
At least 538 does acknowledge:
And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.
So, what we have is an educated guess. Something slightly better than reading tea leaves but not as scientific as it's presented to be.
US pollsters are like old generals, always fighting the last war. That may be unavoidable, but stop presenting data like it means anything.
OK didn't Trump exempt Australia from tariffs form steel and aluminium. My point is our lives in Australia won't change much regardless who is president.
- Sep 26, 2017
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Polls has meant **** all to me since 2016 where Clinton was heavily favourite to win and common sense dictated that Trump shouldn’t be the leader of the most powerful and most influential country in the world
I hate this timeline
I hate this timeline
and the cadre of ghouls, leeches and mini-Hitlers surrounding him, with the power of POTUS behind them; JD most of all. P25 will be a threat for a long while I'm afraid. How long was the SCOTUS capture in operation before fruition? Trump is basically the figurehead.
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