List Mgmt. 2024 Young Talent Time (Drafting)

[yakamoto]

How does Tony Whan qualify for NGA status?

 

[apuchar]

How does Tony Whan qualify for NGA status?

Probably British history. Need to keep him away from soccer.

 

[Futbolista]

How does Tony Whan qualify for NGA status?

I think his parents were born overseas?

 

[Tbonefreo]

Geezus Sheriff if you get offended by other people's opinions on a footy board then that's probably a sign you need to stop taking things so seriously in life lmao. I apologise to anyone if I come across as condescending in any of my posts because that is definitely not my intention. I am a footy nuffie like the rest of us so I don't know any better then anyone else here. I am a very open minded individual so while I may express my opinions confidently, I encourage people to challenge them and to express their own (which is what Chris25 has done) because that is how we learn and develop as humans. At the end of the day Big Footy is just a bit of fun so let's move on from this nonsense.

Youre one of my favourite posters WJ. Don't change

 

[Tbonefreo]

Yep I realise that and edited post.

Aren't you the tosser who tried telling me off after we beat the Saints and you cried about being kind to one another?

Or is this a different sheriff?

 

[Dockeroo]

How can you claim a "nuanced" position when you literally tried to say there is a rule you follow every time?

I stand by it.

Not a very convincing argument by you but I thought I’d get some actual data to try back up my opinion, for the benefit of anyone else that’s interested.

The first issue is that most people on here get giddy with excitement for first round picks and think that every single player listed in the top 20 of the rankings will be a gun.
We all know the reality is that is not the case. I would contend that the number one priority for David Walls is to not pick one of the spuds that will be selected on the top 10 or 15. There WILL be duds taken in the top 10, that’s always been the case, incase anyone thinks differently.

To back this up I went back a few years now. 2012-16 drafts - the top 10 each year. These players are all a minimum of 7 full years in the system So it’s fair to say we have a reasonable idea are they hits or misses.

2012
1. Whitfield
2. O’Rourke
3. Plowman
4. Toumpas
5. Stringer
6. McRae
7. Wines
8. Mayes
9. Vlaustin
10. Daniher

2013
1. Boyd
2. Kelly
3. Billings
4. Bontempelli
5. Kade Kolodjasnig
6. Scharenberg
7. Aish
8. Luke McDonald
9. Salem
10. Freeman

2014
1. McCartin
2. Petracca
3. Angus Brayshaw
4. Jarrad Pickett
5. De Goey
6. Marchbank
7. Ahern
8. Peter Wright
9. Darcy Moore
10. Cockatoo

2015
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Oliver
5. Parish
6. Francis
7. Hopper
8. Cal AhChee
9. Weideman
10. Harry McKay

2016
1. McGrath
2. Taranto
3. Mcluggage
4. Ainsworth
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski seaton
7. Scrimshaw
8. Logue
9. Brodie
10. Bowes

That’s 50 top 10 pick players I have listed. I broke them down into brackets

Generational players:
2/50 (Bont and Trac). 4% of the total player pool in the sample.

Elite players (projecting as multiple AA level and key cornerstones of their team)
6/50 (Kelly, Degoey, Moore, Weitering, McKay, Oliver)

Very very good players (you’d be very happy with these guys but they aren’t game changer superstars):

9/50 (Wines, Whitfield, Vlaustin, Mcluggage, Mills, Brayshaw, Daniher, McRae, stringer)

Good solid citizens that will play 200 games but you would be mildly disappointed with them having paid a top 10 pick:

7/50 (Scrimshaw, Ainsworth, McGrath, Hopper, Parish, Salem, wright)

Role players that play plenty of games but don’t shift the dial much and usually end up multiple club journeymen for later round picks:

7/10 (Logue, Aish, Bowes, AhChee, Marchbank, Mcdonald, billings)

The rest are dud picks that should never have been anywhere near the ND first round in hindsight.

15/50 (Petrevski Seaton, Setterfield, weideman, Francis, Schache, Cockatoo, Ahern, Pickett, Freeman, kolodjasnidg, scharenberg, Mayes, toumpas, O’Rourke, Plowman)

Two players get a pass for injury/mental health but they were ultimately failed picks too in Mccartin and Boyd. I know there as a couple of others but ultimately the picks were right in hindsight.

These stats don’t lie - there a 4% chance of a generational superstar but a 34% chance of a complete Dud.

That’s a reasonable sample size and my point is if you start reaching for needs in this area of the draft that is how you end up with an even higher chance of making an error.

The chances are there is one generational future superstar in this 2024 draft top 15.

If David walls believes that a specific player is that guy, but he’s a key forward and we don’t want another one, do you then pick the equivalent of Cal Ah chee ahead of Harry McKay? Of course you don’t.

The worst case scenario is to end up with one of the 34% that are duds. We have seen over and over that hurts clubs so so badly. I’d much rather have an extra elite player for a certain position and have to make a hard trade decision than to be delisting a Josh Schache type for nothing in a few years time because we picked the wrong guy.

Another piece of less clear evidence to back up my point is the drafting record of GWS over the last 12 years in the first round, and to a lesser degree the Suns.
These clubs are the most similar to the mock draft nuffies on this site. They have had picks coming out their ass for a decade now. There is no jeopardy involved for those teams in the draft and they have a never ending stream of first rounder s that we just don’t have.

I have NO DOUBT that GWS reached for several players in those years as they tried to build a team. They have selected some absolute stinkers in the first round. So many picks coming in from the academy and players leaving that it really doesn’t matter to them. We are very different.

What if for example, David Walls hypothetically believes passionately that Jonty Faull is the next 600 goal, 300 game centre half forward from 2025-2040 and he has him ranked top 2 in the pool, but he’s still there at pick 7 and we have a selection? What does he do - not pick him because we need a winger and a small forward in 2024? That would be crazy if Walls is subsequently proven to be correct about the player.

 

[wakojako]

Youre one of my favourite posters WJ. Don't change

Thank you, that means a lot to me

 

[wakojako]

Not a very convincing argument by you but I thought I’d get some actual data to try back up my opinion, for the benefit of anyone else that’s interested.

The first issue is that most people on here get giddy with excitement for first round picks and think that every single player listed in the top 20 of the rankings will be a gun.
We all know the reality is that is not the case. I would contend that the number one priority for David Walls is to not pick one of the spuds that will be selected on the top 10 or 15. There WILL be duds taken in the top 10, that’s always been the case, incase anyone thinks differently.

To back this up I went back a few years now. 2012-16 drafts - the top 10 each year. These players are all a minimum of 7 full years in the system So it’s fair to say we have a reasonable idea are they hits or misses.

2012
1. Whitfield
2. O’Rourke
3. Plowman
4. Toumpas
5. Stringer
6. McRae
7. Wines
8. Mayes
9. Vlaustin
10. Daniher

2013
1. Boyd
2. Kelly
3. Billings
4. Bontempelli
5. Kade Kolodjasnig
6. Scharenberg
7. Aish
8. Luke McDonald
9. Salem
10. Freeman

2014
1. McCartin
2. Petracca
3. Angus Brayshaw
4. Jarrad Pickett
5. De Goey
6. Marchbank
7. Ahern
8. Peter Wright
9. Darcy Moore
10. Cockatoo

2015
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Oliver
5. Parish
6. Francis
7. Hopper
8. Cal AhChee
9. Weideman
10. Harry McKay

2016
1. McGrath
2. Taranto
3. Mcluggage
4. Ainsworth
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski seaton
7. Scrimshaw
8. Logue
9. Brodie
10. Bowes

That’s 50 top 10 pick players I have listed. I broke them down into brackets

Generational players:
2/50 (Bont and Trac). 4% of the total player pool in the sample.

Elite players (projecting as multiple AA level and key cornerstones of their team)
6/50 (Kelly, Degoey, Moore, Weitering, McKay, Oliver)

Very very good players (you’d be very happy with these guys but they aren’t game changer superstars):

9/50 (Wines, Whitfield, Vlaustin, Mcluggage, Mills, Brayshaw, Daniher, McRae, stringer)

Good solid citizens that will play 200 games but you would be mildly disappointed with them having paid a top 10 pick:

7/50 (Scrimshaw, Ainsworth, McGrath, Hopper, Parish, Salem, wright)

Role players that play plenty of games but don’t shift the dial much and usually end up multiple club journeymen for later round picks:

7/10 (Logue, Aish, Bowes, AhChee, Marchbank, Mcdonald, billings)

The rest are dud picks that should never have been anywhere near the ND first round in hindsight.

15/50 (Petrevski Seaton, Setterfield, weideman, Francis, Schache, Cockatoo, Ahern, Pickett, Freeman, kolodjasnidg, scharenberg, Mayes, toumpas, O’Rourke, Plowman)

Two players get a pass for injury/mental health but they were ultimately failed picks too in Mccartin and Boyd. I know there as a couple of others but ultimately the picks were right in hindsight.

These stats don’t lie - there a 4% chance of a generational superstar but a 34% chance of a complete Dud.

That’s a reasonable sample size and my point is if you start reaching for needs in this area of the draft that is how you end up with an even higher chance of making an error.

The chances are there is one generational future superstar in this 2024 draft top 15.

If David walls believes that a specific player is that guy, but he’s a key forward and we don’t want another one, do you then pick the equivalent of Cal Ah chee ahead of Harry McKay? Of course you don’t.

The worst case scenario is to end up with one of the 34% that are duds. We have seen over and over that hurts clubs so so badly. I’d much rather have an extra elite player for a certain position and have to make a hard trade decision than to be delisting a Josh Schache type for nothing in a few years time because we picked the wrong guy.

Another piece of less clear evidence to back up my point is the drafting record of GWS over the last 12 years in the first round, and to a lesser degree the Suns.
These clubs are the most similar to the mock draft nuffies on this site. They have had picks coming out their ass for a decade now. There is no jeopardy involved for those teams in the draft and they have a never ending stream of first rounder s that we just don’t have.

I have NO DOUBT that GWS reached for several players in those years as they tried to build a team. They have selected some absolute stinkers in the first round. So many picks coming in from the academy and players leaving that it really doesn’t matter to them. We are very different.

What if for example, David Walls hypothetically believes passionately that Jonty Faull is the next 600 goal, 300 game centre half forward from 2025-2040 and he has him ranked top 2 in the pool, but he’s still there at pick 7 and we have a selection? What does he do - not pick him because we need a winger and a small forward in 2024? That would be crazy if Walls is subsequently proven to be correct about the player.

This is some next level research, good work!

 

[Paracleet]

This is some next level research, good work!

We'll take your word for it..

 

[yakamoto]

Thanks Futbolista.

 

[theGav56]

And sharpe

Longmire will get the best out of all of them

 

[Alfonz]

Not a very convincing argument by you but I thought I’d get some actual data to try back up my opinion, for the benefit of anyone else that’s interested.

The first issue is that most people on here get giddy with excitement for first round picks and think that every single player listed in the top 20 of the rankings will be a gun.
We all know the reality is that is not the case. I would contend that the number one priority for David Walls is to not pick one of the spuds that will be selected on the top 10 or 15. There WILL be duds taken in the top 10, that’s always been the case, incase anyone thinks differently.

To back this up I went back a few years now. 2012-16 drafts - the top 10 each year. These players are all a minimum of 7 full years in the system So it’s fair to say we have a reasonable idea are they hits or misses.

2012
1. Whitfield
2. O’Rourke
3. Plowman
4. Toumpas
5. Stringer
6. McRae
7. Wines
8. Mayes
9. Vlaustin
10. Daniher

2013
1. Boyd
2. Kelly
3. Billings
4. Bontempelli
5. Kade Kolodjasnig
6. Scharenberg
7. Aish
8. Luke McDonald
9. Salem
10. Freeman

2014
1. McCartin
2. Petracca
3. Angus Brayshaw
4. Jarrad Pickett
5. De Goey
6. Marchbank
7. Ahern
8. Peter Wright
9. Darcy Moore
10. Cockatoo

2015
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Oliver
5. Parish
6. Francis
7. Hopper
8. Cal AhChee
9. Weideman
10. Harry McKay

2016
1. McGrath
2. Taranto
3. Mcluggage
4. Ainsworth
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski seaton
7. Scrimshaw
8. Logue
9. Brodie
10. Bowes

That’s 50 top 10 pick players I have listed. I broke them down into brackets

Generational players:
2/50 (Bont and Trac). 4% of the total player pool in the sample.

Elite players (projecting as multiple AA level and key cornerstones of their team)
6/50 (Kelly, Degoey, Moore, Weitering, McKay, Oliver)

Very very good players (you’d be very happy with these guys but they aren’t game changer superstars):

9/50 (Wines, Whitfield, Vlaustin, Mcluggage, Mills, Brayshaw, Daniher, McRae, stringer)

Good solid citizens that will play 200 games but you would be mildly disappointed with them having paid a top 10 pick:

7/50 (Scrimshaw, Ainsworth, McGrath, Hopper, Parish, Salem, wright)

Role players that play plenty of games but don’t shift the dial much and usually end up multiple club journeymen for later round picks:

7/10 (Logue, Aish, Bowes, AhChee, Marchbank, Mcdonald, billings)

The rest are dud picks that should never have been anywhere near the ND first round in hindsight.

15/50 (Petrevski Seaton, Setterfield, weideman, Francis, Schache, Cockatoo, Ahern, Pickett, Freeman, kolodjasnidg, scharenberg, Mayes, toumpas, O’Rourke, Plowman)

Two players get a pass for injury/mental health but they were ultimately failed picks too in Mccartin and Boyd. I know there as a couple of others but ultimately the picks were right in hindsight.

These stats don’t lie - there a 4% chance of a generational superstar but a 34% chance of a complete Dud.

That’s a reasonable sample size and my point is if you start reaching for needs in this area of the draft that is how you end up with an even higher chance of making an error.

The chances are there is one generational future superstar in this 2024 draft top 15.

If David walls believes that a specific player is that guy, but he’s a key forward and we don’t want another one, do you then pick the equivalent of Cal Ah chee ahead of Harry McKay? Of course you don’t.

The worst case scenario is to end up with one of the 34% that are duds. We have seen over and over that hurts clubs so so badly. I’d much rather have an extra elite player for a certain position and have to make a hard trade decision than to be delisting a Josh Schache type for nothing in a few years time because we picked the wrong guy.

Another piece of less clear evidence to back up my point is the drafting record of GWS over the last 12 years in the first round, and to a lesser degree the Suns.
These clubs are the most similar to the mock draft nuffies on this site. They have had picks coming out their ass for a decade now. There is no jeopardy involved for those teams in the draft and they have a never ending stream of first rounder s that we just don’t have.

I have NO DOUBT that GWS reached for several players in those years as they tried to build a team. They have selected some absolute stinkers in the first round. So many picks coming in from the academy and players leaving that it really doesn’t matter to them. We are very different.

What if for example, David Walls hypothetically believes passionately that Jonty Faull is the next 600 goal, 300 game centre half forward from 2025-2040 and he has him ranked top 2 in the pool, but he’s still there at pick 7 and we have a selection? What does he do - not pick him because we need a winger and a small forward in 2024? That would be crazy if Walls is subsequently proven to be correct about the player.

I'm sorry, but you seem to be missing the point. People are saying you don't just blindly pick according to a rigid "best available". You combine that with needs. If two similarly ranked players are available, you go with the one that fills needs best. If one is clearly best but doesn't fill a need, or there are no specific needs, you go with best available.

I daresay many of those duds were indeed "best available" type picks. Guys like Schache, Pickett, McCartin, Boyd, Billings, etc. Jack Watts if you go back. The list goes on. For every dud pick you attribute to going with needs, there will be a dud pick that could have been avoided if going with needs.

Your stats don't prove anything. Dud picks are simply a problem with talent identification. Not a problem with best available v needs strategy.

Philips (best available) v McDonald (needs) is one example at North.

Essendon didn't need a small vanilla mid/HBF in McGrath. They went best available but they were crying out for big mids. If they went with needs they would have chosen Taranto or McCluggage. The latter especially would have been much better than McGrath.

Melbourne "reached" for Weideman. This is a double whammy for needs and best available. They thought he was best available KPF. If they had gone with McKay they'd be laughing.

Go way back and if Richmond had decided they needed KPF, they would have drafted Pavlich or Franklin instead of going with what they thought was best available with Fiora and Tambling.

 

[Joao]

Not a very convincing argument by you but I thought I’d get some actual data to try back up my opinion, for the benefit of anyone else that’s interested.

The first issue is that most people on here get giddy with excitement for first round picks and think that every single player listed in the top 20 of the rankings will be a gun.
We all know the reality is that is not the case. I would contend that the number one priority for David Walls is to not pick one of the spuds that will be selected on the top 10 or 15. There WILL be duds taken in the top 10, that’s always been the case, incase anyone thinks differently.

To back this up I went back a few years now. 2012-16 drafts - the top 10 each year. These players are all a minimum of 7 full years in the system So it’s fair to say we have a reasonable idea are they hits or misses.

2012
1. Whitfield
2. O’Rourke
3. Plowman
4. Toumpas
5. Stringer
6. McRae
7. Wines
8. Mayes
9. Vlaustin
10. Daniher

2013
1. Boyd
2. Kelly
3. Billings
4. Bontempelli
5. Kade Kolodjasnig
6. Scharenberg
7. Aish
8. Luke McDonald
9. Salem
10. Freeman

2014
1. McCartin
2. Petracca
3. Angus Brayshaw
4. Jarrad Pickett
5. De Goey
6. Marchbank
7. Ahern
8. Peter Wright
9. Darcy Moore
10. Cockatoo

2015
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Oliver
5. Parish
6. Francis
7. Hopper
8. Cal AhChee
9. Weideman
10. Harry McKay

2016
1. McGrath
2. Taranto
3. Mcluggage
4. Ainsworth
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski seaton
7. Scrimshaw
8. Logue
9. Brodie
10. Bowes

That’s 50 top 10 pick players I have listed. I broke them down into brackets

Generational players:
2/50 (Bont and Trac). 4% of the total player pool in the sample.

Elite players (projecting as multiple AA level and key cornerstones of their team)
6/50 (Kelly, Degoey, Moore, Weitering, McKay, Oliver)

Very very good players (you’d be very happy with these guys but they aren’t game changer superstars):

9/50 (Wines, Whitfield, Vlaustin, Mcluggage, Mills, Brayshaw, Daniher, McRae, stringer)

Good solid citizens that will play 200 games but you would be mildly disappointed with them having paid a top 10 pick:

7/50 (Scrimshaw, Ainsworth, McGrath, Hopper, Parish, Salem, wright)

Role players that play plenty of games but don’t shift the dial much and usually end up multiple club journeymen for later round picks:

7/10 (Logue, Aish, Bowes, AhChee, Marchbank, Mcdonald, billings)

The rest are dud picks that should never have been anywhere near the ND first round in hindsight.

15/50 (Petrevski Seaton, Setterfield, weideman, Francis, Schache, Cockatoo, Ahern, Pickett, Freeman, kolodjasnidg, scharenberg, Mayes, toumpas, O’Rourke, Plowman)

Two players get a pass for injury/mental health but they were ultimately failed picks too in Mccartin and Boyd. I know there as a couple of others but ultimately the picks were right in hindsight.

These stats don’t lie - there a 4% chance of a generational superstar but a 34% chance of a complete Dud.

That’s a reasonable sample size and my point is if you start reaching for needs in this area of the draft that is how you end up with an even higher chance of making an error.

The chances are there is one generational future superstar in this 2024 draft top 15.

If David walls believes that a specific player is that guy, but he’s a key forward and we don’t want another one, do you then pick the equivalent of Cal Ah chee ahead of Harry McKay? Of course you don’t.

The worst case scenario is to end up with one of the 34% that are duds. We have seen over and over that hurts clubs so so badly. I’d much rather have an extra elite player for a certain position and have to make a hard trade decision than to be delisting a Josh Schache type for nothing in a few years time because we picked the wrong guy.

Another piece of less clear evidence to back up my point is the drafting record of GWS over the last 12 years in the first round, and to a lesser degree the Suns.
These clubs are the most similar to the mock draft nuffies on this site. They have had picks coming out their ass for a decade now. There is no jeopardy involved for those teams in the draft and they have a never ending stream of first rounder s that we just don’t have.

I have NO DOUBT that GWS reached for several players in those years as they tried to build a team. They have selected some absolute stinkers in the first round. So many picks coming in from the academy and players leaving that it really doesn’t matter to them. We are very different.

What if for example, David Walls hypothetically believes passionately that Jonty Faull is the next 600 goal, 300 game centre half forward from 2025-2040 and he has him ranked top 2 in the pool, but he’s still there at pick 7 and we have a selection? What does he do - not pick him because we need a winger and a small forward in 2024? That would be crazy if Walls is subsequently proven to be correct about the player.

All of that is completely unnecessary.

I think it is self evident that a strict rule is a terrible way to make decisions in general. Genuinely surprised anyone would try and make a counter argument.

 

[Sherriff Incorporated]

Aren't you the tosser who tried telling me off after we beat the Saints and you cried about being kind to one another?

Or is this a different sheriff?

Hence I acknowledged I did that and deleted the insult.

 

[Dockeroo]

All of that is completely unnecessary.

I think it is self evident that a strict rule is a terrible way to make decisions in general. Genuinely surprised anyone would try and make a counter argument.

Well I think your side of the argument is the one that has the strict rule in this exchange - not drafting any key position defenders, key position forwards or rucks (less relevant as there are no pure rucks projected as top 25 as I understand it).
I’m simply saying that all players should be on the table in the top 10 of the draft if our recruitment team believes they are going to be elite.
Anyway it’s a discussion board, we are free to agree and disagree!

 

[pK75]

Well I think your side of the argument is the one that has the strict rule in this exchange - not drafting any key position defenders, key position forwards or rucks (less relevant as there are no pure rucks projected as top 25 as I understand it).
I’m simply saying that all players should be on the table in the top 10 of the draft if our recruitment team believes they are going to be elite.
Anyway it’s a discussion board, we are free to agree and disagree!

To be honest, I think they go hand in hand, if we know we need classy ball users (as forwards, outside mids of half back flankers) that’s going to influence how we rate the draftees, when Walls and co are preparing the ranking im sure they are influenced by the traits we are looking for.

 

[Joao]

Well I think your side of the argument is the one that has the strict rule in this exchange - not drafting any key position defenders, key position forwards or rucks (less relevant as there are no pure rucks projected as top 25 as I understand it).
I’m simply saying that all players should be on the table in the top 10 of the draft if our recruitment team believes they are going to be elite.
Anyway it’s a discussion board, we are free to agree and disagree!

We didn't even disagree then, because I am 99% sure I said you take generational players if on offer. Reckon I used Buddy or Pav as examples.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I pinched this from the main draft board, but gives a good summary of how even the draft is, and where players will go.

 

[Wallsy78]

Think Davis would probably be a target for the saints pick if we keep it. Seems like he has flown under the radar a bit.

An interesting little nugget from Ralph's latest Baker article on WC deciding whether to split their pick or not - "Or in a deep draft, will it allow them to snare Baker and take the player they wanted all along, Bo Allan?"

WC list manager Matthew Clarke was Richmond's national recruiting manager, so I wonder if Ralphy is tight with him. It reads like them wanting Allan is information he knows but it's probably Ralphy just making up shit again

 

[DragoDelph]

Think Davis would probably be a target for the saints pick if we keep it. Seems like he has flown under the radar a bit.

An interesting little nugget from Ralph's latest Baker article on WC deciding whether to split their pick or not - "Or in a deep draft, will it allow them to snare Baker and take the player they wanted all along, Bo Allan?"

WC list manager Matthew Clarke was Richmond's national recruiting manager, so I wonder if Ralphy is tight with him. It reads like them wanting Allan is information he knows but it's probably Ralphy just making up shit again

He's just the highest rated WA player in the draft.

 

[Wallsy78]

He's just the highest rated WA player in the draft.

Yeah you're probably right. Fair chance he did the same last year on speculation they will split the pick and take the player they wanted all along, Dan Curtin

 

[Alfonz]

Think Davis would probably be a target for the saints pick if we keep it. Seems like he has flown under the radar a bit.

An interesting little nugget from Ralph's latest Baker article on WC deciding whether to split their pick or not - "Or in a deep draft, will it allow them to snare Baker and take the player they wanted all along, Bo Allan?"

WC list manager Matthew Clarke was Richmond's national recruiting manager, so I wonder if Ralphy is tight with him. It reads like them wanting Allan is information he knows but it's probably Ralphy just making up shit again

Really keen on Davis for that Saints pick. Hopefully WC don't pick him a few spots earlier, or give that pick up for Baker (which should be the going rate, not the Ralph nonsense of a mid/late first rounder).

 

[go_the_dockers]

BigFooty Official - 2024 Bigfooty Phantom Draft - Early Edition

Richmond - Sid Draper North - Finn O'Sullivan Brisbane Lions - Levi Ashcroft *F/S match (Used Pick 15 and 53) Gold Coast Suns - Leonardo Lombard *Academy match (used Pick 9) West Coast - Tobie Travaglia Saints - Jagga Smith Adelaide - Sam Lalor Hawthorn - Josh Smillie Fremantle - Luke Trainor...

www.bigfooty.com

Worth a look

 

[Purple Suit]

Not a very convincing argument by you but I thought I’d get some actual data to try back up my opinion, for the benefit of anyone else that’s interested.

The first issue is that most people on here get giddy with excitement for first round picks and think that every single player listed in the top 20 of the rankings will be a gun.
We all know the reality is that is not the case. I would contend that the number one priority for David Walls is to not pick one of the spuds that will be selected on the top 10 or 15. There WILL be duds taken in the top 10, that’s always been the case, incase anyone thinks differently.

To back this up I went back a few years now. 2012-16 drafts - the top 10 each year. These players are all a minimum of 7 full years in the system So it’s fair to say we have a reasonable idea are they hits or misses.

2012
1. Whitfield
2. O’Rourke
3. Plowman
4. Toumpas
5. Stringer
6. McRae
7. Wines
8. Mayes
9. Vlaustin
10. Daniher

2013
1. Boyd
2. Kelly
3. Billings
4. Bontempelli
5. Kade Kolodjasnig
6. Scharenberg
7. Aish
8. Luke McDonald
9. Salem
10. Freeman

2014
1. McCartin
2. Petracca
3. Angus Brayshaw
4. Jarrad Pickett
5. De Goey
6. Marchbank
7. Ahern
8. Peter Wright
9. Darcy Moore
10. Cockatoo

2015
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Oliver
5. Parish
6. Francis
7. Hopper
8. Cal AhChee
9. Weideman
10. Harry McKay

2016
1. McGrath
2. Taranto
3. Mcluggage
4. Ainsworth
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski seaton
7. Scrimshaw
8. Logue
9. Brodie
10. Bowes

That’s 50 top 10 pick players I have listed. I broke them down into brackets

Generational players:
2/50 (Bont and Trac). 4% of the total player pool in the sample.

Elite players (projecting as multiple AA level and key cornerstones of their team)
6/50 (Kelly, Degoey, Moore, Weitering, McKay, Oliver)

Very very good players (you’d be very happy with these guys but they aren’t game changer superstars):

9/50 (Wines, Whitfield, Vlaustin, Mcluggage, Mills, Brayshaw, Daniher, McRae, stringer)

Good solid citizens that will play 200 games but you would be mildly disappointed with them having paid a top 10 pick:

7/50 (Scrimshaw, Ainsworth, McGrath, Hopper, Parish, Salem, wright)

Role players that play plenty of games but don’t shift the dial much and usually end up multiple club journeymen for later round picks:

7/10 (Logue, Aish, Bowes, AhChee, Marchbank, Mcdonald, billings)

The rest are dud picks that should never have been anywhere near the ND first round in hindsight.

15/50 (Petrevski Seaton, Setterfield, weideman, Francis, Schache, Cockatoo, Ahern, Pickett, Freeman, kolodjasnidg, scharenberg, Mayes, toumpas, O’Rourke, Plowman)

Two players get a pass for injury/mental health but they were ultimately failed picks too in Mccartin and Boyd. I know there as a couple of others but ultimately the picks were right in hindsight.

These stats don’t lie - there a 4% chance of a generational superstar but a 34% chance of a complete Dud.

That’s a reasonable sample size and my point is if you start reaching for needs in this area of the draft that is how you end up with an even higher chance of making an error.

The chances are there is one generational future superstar in this 2024 draft top 15.

If David walls believes that a specific player is that guy, but he’s a key forward and we don’t want another one, do you then pick the equivalent of Cal Ah chee ahead of Harry McKay? Of course you don’t.

The worst case scenario is to end up with one of the 34% that are duds. We have seen over and over that hurts clubs so so badly. I’d much rather have an extra elite player for a certain position and have to make a hard trade decision than to be delisting a Josh Schache type for nothing in a few years time because we picked the wrong guy.

Another piece of less clear evidence to back up my point is the drafting record of GWS over the last 12 years in the first round, and to a lesser degree the Suns.
These clubs are the most similar to the mock draft nuffies on this site. They have had picks coming out their ass for a decade now. There is no jeopardy involved for those teams in the draft and they have a never ending stream of first rounder s that we just don’t have.

I have NO DOUBT that GWS reached for several players in those years as they tried to build a team. They have selected some absolute stinkers in the first round. So many picks coming in from the academy and players leaving that it really doesn’t matter to them. We are very different.

What if for example, David Walls hypothetically believes passionately that Jonty Faull is the next 600 goal, 300 game centre half forward from 2025-2040 and he has him ranked top 2 in the pool, but he’s still there at pick 7 and we have a selection? What does he do - not pick him because we need a winger and a small forward in 2024? That would be crazy if Walls is subsequently proven to be correct about the player.

I think the other thing to consider is it's not just getting the draft selection right on the night. Development & Opportunity plays a huge part in how a player turns out. Some of the players going to poor teams are up against it and I recon they turn out a lot better at a different club if circumstances allow.

Freo's development has been great lately but opportunity could hold back kids too. Someone like Erasmus is clearly talented, a gun WAFL player and coming along well but cannot get a regular block of AFL games. This is due to Freo drafting another sliding inside mid at the same time and he has gotten in front of him plus Fyfe has got through the season unscathed.

Selecting another Key Back or Inside mid would be as bad as reaching for a much less talented small forward in my opinion as the new kid would be waiting years to get a look in and probably leave for little capital, just like if he was a dud pick.

 

[Vimal Anand]

Ben Ainsworth

9

Ben Ainsworth

Age

26

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

6.1

4star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

8.3

3star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.3

2star

D

13.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

decided to sign with Suns closing the talk of Essendon.Did the change in NGA rule prompted essendon to rethink as Kako may be a walk in the 22 and impact straight away and why wasting cap. As Berry and Kako similarly projected we better not pursue Bolton?
And some one posted yesterday about Wallsy was particular on Simpson before the draft it self. That means we may overlook some players in first round who plays similar to Simpson? Any one know who are the players similar to Simpson in this draft in top 20?

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app