2025 Draw - hoping for MUCH softer

[Dangerousfield]

2023 was the season that got Nick's extended, it was done on the back of a great sunset season from Tex and a very soft draw. I'd hate to again get a really soft draw and fall into finals on the back of that, thus saving Nicks again.

Fear not, we'll get a soft draw because we're 15th. A gutted Richmond twice for certain, WC probably won't improve much, Norf may but who knows, probably get those twice. Only Port in the top six, in the middle bracket I'd like Essendon twice as they're looking dead set bottom four replacing us

AFL paid us for the goal error so reckon we'll again be sent all over the place, but take whatever comes and just win, not whinge!

 

[rocket18]

Hi Crows Fans, as I seemingly enjoy writing letters and emails (and somehow annoying the usual suspects by George), I thought I would give it another crack. Have just sent the following to the top 7-8 AFL Execs including Dillon, Kane and the head of fixturing and also Jake Niall, Chief Footy Writer at The Age, who I have communicated with over the years. I cc'd Silvers, Reid, Nicks, Harper, Kelly, Clarke, Dawson and Olsen (the last 2 don't have normal Crows email formats - same as Roo - and emails werent delivered to these 2).

Whether it does ANY good or not time will tell. But I can sit here and whine about shit or actually do something and personally cant see how it does any harm. Esp when Silvers has personally acknowledged me previously (calls me 'the email guy' ) and advised he and Nicks discussed the contents of my email AND brought it up with the AFL.

Here it is...

Att: AFL Execs and Jake Niall - Adelaide Crows (AFL and AFLW) difficulty of each fixture - MOST difficult in each of the last 4 seasons summarised below - almost impossible to fathom


Dear All

Firstly, congrats on another great season of footy. Bumper crowds, TV ratings, tightness of competition and numerous all time classic games and close finishes. Great finals also (4 of the 9) with the GF unfortunately not quite living up to expectations - these things happen after a classic last year. Rule changes having desired effects with more attacking mindset of teams. All big ticks from my perspective.

I have written previously to Andrew Dillon, Gillon (see below) and Andrew Demetriou back in 2005 when Crows had been drawn to play in Perth in the last minor round (when no pre-finals bye existed so was therefore the 'graveyard' location no team wanted to play at in the last minor round) an extraordinary 4 out of 8 years which - coincidentally or not - meant we lost each of the first week of finals in these 4 years inc when playing at home and strong favourites due to an inequitable final round location fixturing).

I am writing today to ensure you are fully aware of a situation which I find almost unfathomable. The Crows AFL team (no finals for 7 years) and successful AFLW team have had statistically the hardest draw of any team in EACH of the last 4 seasons (2 x AFL and 2 x AFLW). This is almost a mathematical impossibility. Quick analysis below if you have 5 mins.


Additionally, after having the hardest (by a mile - see your own website analysis) draw for 2024 AFL I am hoping we get a much more 'team friendly' fixture in 2024. Suns luckily got double up games against the bottom 3 this year - Tigers, Eagles and Kangas. In a tight competition a more favourable fixture - after undoubtedly being on the rough end of the stick year after year in a very adverse manner - provides equity and greatly enhances the teams prospects of making finals and stopping many disillusioned crows fans feeling they are always battling against the odds in many ways (fixturing as outlined, the unprecedented 3 wrong umpiring decisions costing Crows likely wins that the AFL admitted to from mid 2023 to early 2024, not playing for effectively a whole season in Melbourne for 22 weeks from round 17 2022 vs Hawks at Marvel to round 15 vs Pies at The G in 2023. Even more incredibly we went over 1.5 seasons or 37 weeks playing at The G from round 2 in 2022 to round 15 in 2023). Basically, we just want a fair go and for previous inequities to perhaps be acknowledged and adjusted accordingly.

Fixture Analysis - Crows losing out on every fixture in recent years. Bad luck? Ideally next year we play 3 double ups vs the bottom 3 from 2024, our default Power game and also perhaps Saints from the middle tier and someone else whilst avoiding the most 'satellite locations' of any team in recent years when you are actually dealing with a team with significant amount of support in the major cities (most after ex MLB linked teams in Swans and Lions from my many years of experience). Guess who we played twice in 2024? Teams ranked (end of minor round) 1,2,3,5,7 and 11th - just extraordinary bad luck don't you think?

Thanks for reading

119 Others



Summarised fixture analysis


2024 AFL - numerous articles (inc afl.com.au and The Age) highlighted the combined finishing ladder position total of the 6 double up teams played twice, meant Crows total of 27 meant we played an average of the 4-5th ranked team 6 times in our double up games, whilst the next hardest team was 6-7th ranked (into the 40's). As would be expected all other teams with harder draws - but no where near as difficult as Crows - had finished high up on the ladder in 2023. Crows had finished outside the 8, and whilst understanding there is some degree of luck and uncertainty re how the ultimate season plays out at the BEGINNING of the year we were rated as having the 6th hardest draw - how is that possible when we finished 10th the previous year?

Whose fixture was hardest? Power capitalise, Crows dealt brutal run

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2024?

www.afl.com.au

2024 AFLW - I have analysed (excel image pasted just below) fixture of all 8 top teams (inc the final 2 minor rounds to be played out) and Crows have by far and away the hardest draw again. Currently third on the ladder, we play 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th. One team ONLY below team 12 on the ladder. Almost impossible to believe our bad luck here with 6 of the other 7 top 8 teams played PLUS 9th and 10th team. Most other finalists play 2 or 3 top 8 teams twice (except Essendon x 4 and Kangas x 4 including the 7th and 8th team). Have detailed spreadsheet if you seek further details but am sure your analytics guys are all over this already.

2023 AFL - effectively equal hardest draw along with either Collingwood or Geelong (depending on what exact metric used to measure difficulty). One key measure of difficulty - Crows only team to play 3 of the top 4 teams twice in our double up games. Contentious umpiring decisions costing us likely wins (2 apologies from AFL House re incorrect decisions with KeaysGate and also the non Dawson free for too high against Pies in the dying seconds at the G in round 15) in multiple games combined with the hardest draw sees the club miss the finals again.

Whose fixture was hardest? Pies defy odds, Dockers miss chance

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2023?

www.afl.com.au

Winners and losers: Who really has had the toughest AFL fixture this season?

Forget the pre-season projections. Did your team have the most challenging fixture, or enjoyed an easier ride? We have crunched the numbers for you.

www.theage.com.au

2023 AFLW - 5 double up games vs finals teams. No other team played as many as this without doing the full analysis due to time constraints (share market opening!)


2024 AFL W
Difficulty of AFL Fixture
Opponent ranking

TABLE COULDNT BE COPIED ACROSS but in simple terms we get screwed by fixture




Older email at bottom of new email (previously posted on BF so nothing new here)

Att: Gillon / Andrew - No Crows game in Melbourne until round 15 - an all time record for an interstate club


Sun 21/05/2023

Hi Gillon and Andrew

Gents, firstly I hope the handover is going well and good luck finding resolutions to a number of the serious and complex issues on your plate – certainly some tough ones. I would appreciate 2 mins of your time reading the following.

As a huge crows fans since day one, many years living in Melbourne, I know the Crows have a huge amount of supporters in Melbourne (historically the best of any interstate team that wasn’t relocated or merged).

In summary, I find it almost impossible to fathom that it can take until Round 15 for my club to play for the FIRST time all year in Melbourne (the first and only time in AFL history this has occurred for any team), finishing with 3 games in total (MLB and COLL at The G, Dons at Marvel.) Its hard to work out when half of all teams are MLB based we cant find one opportunity to actually play one of these teams in MLB until 2/3rds of the season has gone. MLB based family and friends looked at the draw this year and said why in the heck would we become Crows members when treated to only 3 games in total for the whole season starting in round 15. Now I know some team has to play in – how do I best put it…- ‘non premium locations’ of Ballarat, Darwin, Launceston and Geelong but it seems blatantly unfair the Crows get these gigs every single year. As a young, attacking and attractive side to watch, and which is clearly on the rise, I do hope this year is the last time we experience such treatment in the draw.

PS I have only once contacted the AFL directly previously after the Crows were ‘drawn’ to play in Perth in the last minor round 4 years out of 8 in a time when there was no pre-finals bye. Not coincidentally it was the grave-yard location for round 22 (often hot and dry grounds) and the one location NO TEAM wished to get in the last minor round. Yet the Crows got it every second year (inc finals years 1998, 2001 and 2005) and then went on to lose the first week of the finals on each occasion including when we were strong favourites playing at home. Perhaps my email at the time played no part in the change to the rostering but anyway thought I would give the draw another few minutes of time this year to again point out what I deem a lopsided and unfair fixturing.

PPS I have included the crows guys above as a FYI to them on why their MLB member numbers are perhaps struggling this year. I have not communicated this issue with any of them at all until this email.

Anyway, all the best and lets hope for a cracking end to an exciting season with the quality of footy played, in many instances, at decade highs (much thanks to the tinkering of the rules by the AFL in recent years – well done).
Regards,119

You should've thrown in some investment tips.

As others have said, the last thing we want is a soft draw, over inflate our position in the comp, give Nicks another contract.

We've seen that happen at Port year after year, AFL gift them a soft draw on a yearly basis, Kenny gets them in the finals and they crash and burn when they have to play a couple of good teams in a row.

I'd be happy just to play our away games vs MCG tenants at the MCG and Marvel tenants at Marvel.

That would be a huge improvement on the normal shitshow we get served up.

 

[cleanhands]

You should've thrown in some investment tips.

As others have said, the last thing we want is a soft draw, over inflate our position in the comp, give Nicks another contract.

We've seen that happen at Port year after year, AFL gift them a soft draw on a yearly basis, Kenny gets them in the finals and they crash and burn when they have to play a couple of good teams in a row.

I'd be happy just to play our away games vs MCG tenants at the MCG and Marvel tenants at Marvel.

That would be a huge improvement on the normal shitshow we get served up.

I wonder if they do the same as I did

 

[Burtonsgottago]

Nah. If we're going to be a good team, we need to beat good teams. Bring em on, if we're good we'll beat them and play finals on our own merits. If we're not then we won't and we'll sack the coach.

What I don't want is for a soft draw to cover up the cracks and have us slink into 7th or 8th off the back of beating up on some cellar dwellers. Then the club screams "IMPROVEMENT! SEE??!!" and probably extend Nicks again before the start of 2026 when we will then crash and burn again.

The only way to get a real assessment of where you sit is to test yourself against decent yardsticks. If Nicks is going to keep his job, I want him to bloody well earn it.

You mean like Port?

 

[adelaidecrows]

I am a firm believer in the draw is what it is. You still have the same amount of home games and you play every team at least once. Soft draws are for cowards. If we have a tough draw and miss out on finals, we werent good enough to be in them. A soft draw and making finals is just as bad especially if we lose like chumps in the first two weeks.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Is it? How were Hawks and Brisbane early?

* Vital for us

 

[Dirty Bird]

2023 was the season that got Nick's extended, it was done on the back of a great sunset season from Tex and a very soft draw. I'd hate to again get a really soft draw and fall into finals on the back of that, thus saving Nicks again.

Fear not, we'll get a soft draw because we're 15th. A gutted Richmond twice for certain, WC probably won't improve much, Norf may but who knows, probably get those twice. Only Port in the top six, in the middle bracket I'd like Essendon twice as they're looking dead set bottom four replacing us

AFL paid us for the goal error so reckon we'll again be sent all over the place, but take whatever comes and just win, not whinge!

I didn't realise playing 3 of the top 4 twice was a soft draw

 

[Carn The Texan]

I can't remember the last time we won an away game to start the season. Probably 2009 against Collingwood.

Can you imagine the AFL scheduling this match up in Melbourne in round 1 in this day and age?

 

[radiojake]

Delete this thread

We make finals if we are good enough and don't if we're not
Asking for a soft draw sounds pathetic

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[DJ75]

I can't believe what I'm reading in here.

Yes of course you still have to be a good team to win finals.

BUT, the draw absolutely impacts on your chances of making finals and/or winning them. It absolutely impacts your chances of winning the flag.

A fair draw means that maybe we make finals in the last two years. Imagine the benefit of experience for our guys playing some finals games.
A fair draw also means that you are a chance (eventually for the mens team, not yet obviously) of getting home finals. Home finals is huge. It means you have a much bigger chance of winning and hence making a GF. It could make the difference between a top 2 finish and a 4th or 5th placed finish.

In the AFLW it can make the difference between a home GF or not (as we have seen). Our draw the last 2 years has been blatant cheating by the AFL.

The draw is not an accident. It is very deliberately crafted by the AFL for the outcome they want.

Given the way we get treated with this, the all Vic umpiring panels, the Father-Son and academy etc... it's fair to say we don't get the benefits of others and we absolutely should be complaining about it.

 

[WeeBlake]

The draw is not an accident. It is very deliberately crafted by the AFL for the outcome they want.

The outcome they want is more viewers/money, more wins for nsw and qld teams a very distant second.

 

[Cromulant]

Id rather make finals off the back of a tough draw, that way weve earned it.

No point coasting through to a 7th or 8th after a soft draw and bombing in Wk1 of the finals. Mind you, our record against bottom 10 sides wasnt great.

 

[jackster83]

I think people get too focussed on the double ups when assessing a draw. There's other factors too, for us and other sides.

Such as:

Having to play the Suns up there at the start of the year in oppressive conditions compared to Port playing them later in the year when it is much milder.

Six day break before and after a showdown/western derby.

Not all teams starting on the same weekend. Opening Round sucks - get rid of it.

Having our mid season bye after several teams had already had two byes - our last game before the bye was against Sydney who IIRC had already had 2x byes by then.

Playing in Ballarat right in the middle of winter. This was shithouse for GWS.

 

[Smoooothy]

Playing in Ballarat right in the middle of winter

playing in ballarat full stop..

 

[JPetro83]

By virtue of finishing bottom 4 we should be getting double ups against North, West Coast and Richmond.
Whether that happens or not, who knows.

Given Richmond have gutted their list I do hope we get them twice.

Hopefully get Richmond at the G and not Docklands.

 

[JPetro83]

Would be nice to avoid the GABBA and Kardinia Park for once

 

[JPetro83]

I hope we requested a Round 1 home game...

 

[skam85]

I bet we get Collingwood and Freo twice next year and they'll end up both being top 4 even though they both missed the 8 this season

It will help if we give them four wins

 

[ams4crows]

The outcome they want is more viewers/money, more wins for nsw and qld teams a very distant second.

No one in SA gives a shit when Port are doing well, when Adelaide is up and about this town is buzzing, shops get crows colour decorations, the drive to Melbourne all the country town put out balloons, paint their cows and sheep blue red and yellow. It's awesome.

A strong Adelaide is so much better in terms of making money and viewership for the AFL.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Delete this thread

We make finals if we are good enough and don't if we're not
Asking for a soft draw sounds pathetic

Not looking for a soft draw just looking for a fair draw based on where all the teams finished last year. If we dont get 2 or 3 double ups against other teams that finished in the bottom five (one against Port makes up our six double ups) then that would be a fair draw not a soft draw.

 

[Cromulant]

No one in SA gives a shit when Port are doing well, when Adelaide is up and about this town is buzzing, shops get crows colour decorations, the drive to Melbourne all the country town put out balloons, paint their cows and sheep blue red and yellow. It's awesome.

A strong Adelaide is so much better in terms of making money and viewership for the AFL.

I dunno.... everyone jumps on the Port bandwagon come finals time.

Of course it always ends in hilarious failure and we all laugh

 

[BrissyCrow]

Would be nice to avoid the GABBA and Kardinia Park for once

No No No I want the Crows at the Gabba. Yes I am being selfish but gotta have the Crows at the Gabba

 

[ams4crows]

No No No I want the Crows at the Gabba. Yes I am being selfish but gotta have the Crows at the Gabba

I'd rather play at the GABBA than Metricon.

I'd rather play Stkilda in Cairns than Metricon

 

[PCORF]

I'm hoping for Adelaide to be lest soft in 2025, finals or no finals.

Played their some of worst footy against the sides outside the 8 last year.

Double ups, Port, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Carlton. We need a solid draw against good opposition to test us.

• Play Hawthorn in Launceston.
• Play GWS in Canberra.
• Play North at home.
• Play Geelong at home on a Thursday night.
• Play Fremantle at home, West Coast away.
• Gather round home game against Carlton or Western Bulldogs.
• MCG games against Collingwood, Richmond and Melbourne.
• Bulldogs at Marvel on a Saturday twilight slot.
• Essendon at Marvel on a Friday Night.
• Need two games vs Carlton as it rarely happens and I will be shocked if it happens.
• First Showdown is away, second is home.