2025 Ladder Predictions

[carlton_99]

Their injury run between line up for the GWS game and the start of the Hawthorn game implosion (which preceded the absurd injury dominoes) was not materially worse than the first 10 rounds.

What changed was the form line of the team and then the injury mountain developed to put an exclamation mark on it.

The poster I replied to painted a picture of clean health that then flicked to a mountain of injuries that drove the losing streak. That simply isn't what occurred.

I agree which is why I said we had significant injuries all year but didn't deal with them consistently which was mainly linked to individual player form.

I must have misinterpreted your post because I thought when you said "check their injury list prior to Hawks game" you were saying we had a clean bill of health at that point. That was the only reason I replied.

 

[Jezzitizle]

You said he tried to leave. His manager Peter Rhode confirmed to the club multiple times that he was staying.

You do realise this happens with Pickett every year and he's never requested a trade ? Not only did he not request a trade he signed a contract extension last year until the end of 2027. I don't think he'll finish his career at Melbourne, but he never ''tried to leave'', as you asserted.

He's now got his mate Ricky Mentha at the club and his Uncle, Roy George, will be playing for Casey. With luck he'll remain settled.

Meh, splitting hairs.

 

[Trav 20]

Meh, splitting hairs.

No. Correcting falsehoods.

 

[schmuttt]

While St Kilda have gone from a team that won 5 of their last 6, and 8 of their last 12 (after a nightmare mix of a brutal draw and loads of injuries in the first 10 rounds)- after finishing 6th last year- to a bottom 2 or 4 team next year!

Despite another preseason into the young crew of Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera, Owens, Wilson, Windhager, Caminiti, Henry and co, and getting King back.

I feel like you've made this post every year for the last decade tbh

 

[Jezzitizle]

No. Correcting falsehoods.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yes.

I'm of the belief that a team's fortunes are very dependent on their best 6, or so, players.

For us, if all of Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, May, Lever and Pickett, along with a few others like Viney, Fritsch, Langdon, McVee, have close to their best years then we'll be well entrenched in the 8. 2021, 2022, and 2023 we were top 4 every year.

If they fall away we'll be rubbish. Only Lever and Fritsch are not in full training and they're still getting a heap of work in.

But I get why the consensus is we'll be bottom 5. People look at last year's ladder.

The Dees will be a fascinating watch next year.

Started the year 6-2, with some very good wins, then a 1 point loss to Carlton, followed by a 6 goal loss to West Coast in Perth (when they were very up-and-about), then a comfortable win over us- so a very good first 11 weeks- but then that demolishing by Freo, and then the game where Trac went down against Collingwood, before 3 wins over eventual bottom 8 teams in the following month, before losing 5 of the last 6.

So it was largely business as usual outside of that aberration against Freo, until Trac went down and Gawn started to struggle with injury etc, and from then on you were only able to beat eventual bottom 8 teams.

In fact, there were no wins over eventual top 10 teams out of the Dees last 15 games.

Still plenty of high quality experience out there though, and a good sized batch of youth who could be better for another preseason, so if they’re all pulling in the same direction, and you have a good injury run, I see no reason why you couldn’t be back in the top 6 or 8 at a minimum.

A huge amount of it will come down to how close Trac and Oliver are to their best though.

That is a huge unknown, and vitally important.

Like us, I think your range is anywhere from top 6- if a heap goes right- to as low as bottom 4, if the injuries hit hard again.

With the comp being so even (and next year there may be 17 teams who are generally competitive at worst), it becomes bloody hard to win when you’re well short of full strength. As you guys found this year.

And if you lose confidence and momentum (or don’t have it to start with), it could be weeks and weeks before you get an “easy kill”, to get some of them back.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I feel like you've made this post every year for the last decade tbh

Sounds like we’re due for a good run with injury then, like say the one we got in 2020 (the last time we were really close to full strength), so that would be nice!

We wouldn’t know ourselves if we were at full strength.

Not sure we’ll get good luck with the draw though, if the fact Robbo did a back page article calling it a disgrace- for how difficult it is to start the season, like this year- is anything to go by!

 

[Swooper18]

1. Collingwood
2. Brisbane Lions
3. Hawthorn
4. Carlton
5. GWS Giants
6. Geelong
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Gold Coast

1st Qualifying Final: Collingwood v Carlton
2nd Qualifying Final: Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
1st Elimination Final: GWS Giants v Gold Coast
2nd Elimination Final: Geelong v Western Bulldogs

1st Semi Final: Carlton v GWS Giants
2nd Semi Final: Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

1st Preliminary Final: Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
2nd Preliminary Final: Hawthorn v Carlton

Grand Final: Collingwood v Hawthorn

 

[Warwick]

The Dees will be a fascinating watch next year.

Started the year 6-2, with some very good wins, then a 1 point loss to Carlton, followed by a 6 goal loss to West Coast in Perth (when they were very up-and-about), then a comfortable win over us- so a very good first 11 weeks- but then that demolishing by Freo, and then the game where Trac went down against Collingwood, before 3 wins over eventual bottom 8 teams in the following month, before losing 5 of the last 6.

So it was largely business as usual outside of that aberration against Freo, until Trac went down and Gawn started to struggle with injury etc, and from then on you were only able to beat eventual bottom 8 teams.

In fact, there were no wins over eventual top 10 teams out of the Dees last 15 games.

Still plenty of high quality experience out there though, and a good sized batch of youth who could be better for another preseason, so if they’re all pulling in the same direction, and you have a good injury run, I see no reason why you couldn’t be back in the top 6 or 8 at a minimum.

A huge amount of it will come down to how close Trac and Oliver are to their best though.

That is a huge unknown, and vitally important.

Like us, I think your range is anywhere from top 6- if a heap goes right- to as low as bottom 4, if the injuries hit hard again.

With the comp being so even (and next year there may be 17 teams who are generally competitive at worst), it becomes bloody hard to win when you’re well short of full strength. As you guys found this year.

And if you lose confidence and momentum (or don’t have it to start with), it could be weeks and weeks before you get an “easy kill”, to get some of them back.

Do you try and include St Kilda’s supposed wretched injury run into every post you make?

Article from mid-August a couple of weeks prior to the end of the H&A season: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...lues-are-near-the-bottom-20240813-p5k21k.html

Total games missed:
Richmond 261
Carlton 192
Collingwood 176
West Coast 167
Fremantle 162
GWS 159
Hawthorn 158
Brisbane 152
St Kilda 145
Essendon 142
North 134
Adelaide 133
Bulldogs 128
Sydney 126
Port 125
Geelong 122
Melbourne 118
GC 95

Only tells half the story, so games missed by best 22 players:
Richmond 171
Carlton 137
Brisbane 114
Adelaide 106
Hawthorn 102
Melbourne 97
Collingwood 93
St Kilda 90
West Coast 90
Bulldogs 86
North 73
Port 70
Essendon 66
Geelong 65
GWS 61
Fremantle 60
Gold Coast 56
Sydney 44

Mid-table by both measures. Hardly ravaged by injury..

 

[Sewer de Lance]

1) Carlton
2) Hawthorn
3) Fremantle
4) Brisbane
5) Collingwood
6) Adelaide
7) Geelong
8) Sydney

9-18 - spuds, melt bags, & pure piss

 

[Sirlemsip]

time to have a go at this I guess.

Did the full ladder predictor including margins (but didn't really do any blowouts more than 10 goals, even for teams playing against Richmond) and came up with this:

 

[slider95]

1- Brisbane
2- Geelong
3- Collingwood
4- Carlton
5- GWS
6- Hawthorn
7- WB
8- Fremantle

9- Sydney
10- PA
11- Adelaide
12- GCS
13- StK
14- Melbourne
15- NM Tassie
16- West Coast Hungry Jacks
17- Essendon can't win a final
18- Richmond

 

[Milanista28]

View attachment 2176292

Pick 3 and 4 for us, happy with this.

 

[Swooper18]

time to have a go at this I guess.

Did the full ladder predictor including margins (but didn't really do any blowouts more than 10 goals, even for teams playing against Richmond) and came up with this:

View attachment 2185010

The Woods will wipe your arrogant Hawks off the ballpark to claim their league-record 17th premiership.

 

[bmaurizio]

Woods and Hawks will both have stronger teams in 2025. Reckon Hawks will be a better side with healthy Day on the ball Lewis Mitchell and in front of the sticks. It will an interesting seasons plenty to develop during the course of the year.
In the end reckon it will be another Lions premiership in 2025.

 

[hawkman]

The Woods will wipe your arrogant Hawks off the ballpark to claim their league-record 17th premiership.

Collingwood struggled with Hawthorn even when we were rubbish. Now we are actually good again you expect to get close to us?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Collingwood struggled with Hawthorn even when we were rubbish. Now we are actually good again you expect to get close to us?

Don't worry, Collingwood fans will soon realize their retirement village isn't going to cut the mustard in 2025.

 

[Swooper18]

Do I have a comedian on Walsh Street in South Yarra?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

1. Brisbane
2. Carlton
3. Hawthorn
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. GWS
8. Sydney
9. Bulldogs
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. Adelaide
13. Melbourne
14. Essendon
15. St Kilda
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

 

[Reservoir tiger]

time to have a go at this I guess.

Did the full ladder predictor including margins (but didn't really do any blowouts more than 10 goals, even for teams playing against Richmond) and came up with this:

View attachment 2185010

Who’d we beat

 

[Sirlemsip]

Who’d we beat

Eagles at the MCG in round 9

 

[LRobbo]

1- Brisbane (flag fav)
2- Hawthorn (loaded list)
3- Fremantle (great list)
4- Carlton (star talent at top end)
5- Sydney (deep midfield)
6- Geelong (still good but regressing)
7- GWS (list in transition)
8- Western Bulldogs (reliant on to few)
9- Port Adelaide (missed window)
10- Melbourne (to reliant on to few)
11- St Kilda (good list, no stars)
12- Gold Coast (irrelevant)
13- Adelaide (Rankine only A grader)
14- Collingwood (to old,need to rebuild)
15- North Melbourne (irrelevant)
16- West Coast (irrelevant)
17- Essendon (laughing stock of comp)
18- Richmond (winless)

 

[JPetro83]

1- Brisbane (flag fav)
2- Hawthorn (loaded list)
3- Fremantle (great list)
4- Carlton (star talent at top end)
5- Sydney (deep midfield)
6- Geelong (still good but regressing)
7- GWS (list in transition)
8- Western Bulldogs (reliant on to few)
9- Port Adelaide (missed window)
10- Melbourne (to reliant on to few)
11- St Kilda (good list, no stars)
12- Gold Coast (irrelevant)
13- Adelaide (Rankine only A grader)
14- Collingwood (to old,need to rebuild)
15- North Melbourne (irrelevant)
16- West Coast (irrelevant)
17- Essendon (laughing stock of comp)
18- Richmond (winless)

"loaded list" haha

 

[Dewyyyyy]

"loaded list" haha

Hawthorns list is loaded, think most can agree.

Depth especially, there’s probably a list of 30 who could all be good enough to be best 22 or play at other clubs 22s.

The backline was one of the best performed in 2024 and brings in more talent with Barrass and Battle. Midfield well performed and continues to build depth and is a young midfield that will continue to grow. Small forwards one of the better crops in the league and key forwards (Lewis back qtr or mid year) and Dear/ others is also good enough.

From a list or on paper point of view there isn’t a lot to say is a dire need. The main question marks arise over the mental side of the group and how they raise to the pressure of not being the underdog anymore.

 

[JPetro83]

Hawthorns list is loaded, think most can agree.

Depth especially, there’s probably a list of 30 who could all be good enough to be best 22 or play at other clubs 22s.

The backline was one of the best performed in 2024 and brings in more talent with Barrass and Battle. Midfield well performed and continues to build depth and is a young midfield that will continue to grow. Small forwards one of the better crops in the league and key forwards (Lewis back qtr or mid year) and Dear/ others is also good enough.

From a list or on paper point of view there isn’t a lot to say is a dire need. The main question marks arise over the mental side of the group and how they raise to the pressure of not being the underdog anymore.

2 Players make me dislike Hawthorn.. take a guess at which players they are.