A Bit Dusty
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- Oct 6, 2017
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What’s your starting midfield and structure?Going to list out my thoughts on some players:
Marcus Bontempelli
Don't have him in any of my sides so far, just on balance, starting him is probably the 'wrong' call but unless something goes catastrophically wrong he should be up and around that 120 mark again this year.
Zak Butters
Scoring potential is definitely there but is so courageous that he could easily get wiped out for multiple weeks. I see him as an about 115-120 player, so no interest in him from me.
Lachie Neale:
Early bye, up there in age profile, plenty of new blood to help him in Brisbane's midfield.
Nick Daicos:
If I could afford him I'd probably start him over anyone else around his price. I think he can go 120+.
Isaac Heeney:
Breakout season + early bye + uncertainity with new coach.
Adam Treloar:
Age profile + spike season. No interest.
Caleb Serong:
Was someone I slotted in quite often (as I did last year during pre-season before not starting) but I'm cooling on him reading about how his points tailed off as Freo's midfield was adjusted during the year. Still, he's probably a safe 110-115 pick.
Zach Merrett:
Utterly reliable. No interest with the bye but he's priced at 115 and probably goes 115 again in 2025.
Josh Dunkley:
Early bye means a no but he could push up to a 115 average if everything goes right. Probably too many mouths to feed at Brisbane though.
Patrick Cripps:
Brownlow hangover and he's not in that elite echelon of Supercoach mids. If he goes 100-105 it'll be pretty much expected.
Andrew Brayshaw:
Started with some sort of injury and improved as the season went on. Still, I think there is a cap on his ceiling and I reckon he's priced pretty fairly at about 110. Don't see him going up too much further.
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Currently in my side; the #1 mid in a team that should be improving. If Sheezel gets the tag then he could easily get off the chain. Now there's a chance that he plays more forward rotations but in my view he's one of the nailed-on pure midfielders in the rotation. I reckon that he can go 115+.
Jack Steele:
Too many niggles, new midfield around him might help but with 4 or 5 other popular Saints there's no need to take the gamble on him. Probably a 105-110 player.
Sam Walsh:
Started out as a very durable player but now has consistent issues. Hard to tell whether he can break out further but no need to gamble in my view.
Errol Gulden:
If the sub was eliminated, there were no byes and his role was defined as more inside then I'd be interested. As it is, he's not in consideration.
Noah Anderson:
Too inconsistent, early bye an issue as well. Maybe worth looking at for a specific chunk of the season as he can go on a hot streak.
Tom Green:
Currently in my side as he's the #1 mid at the Giants. I'm hoping that natural progression can push him up to that 115+ range and the early bye he has isn't the dreaded Round 3 bye. Still, obviously a risk as it's not as if it's likely he'll get too much more midfield opportunity.
Crouch, Yeo, Libba, Laird, Warner, Miller:
I don't think anyone's really considering these players, not to start at least.
Christian Petracca:
Not in my side at the moment but obviously a very popular pick for good reason. Everything going well he can be 10-15 ppg underpriced. My queries are regarding role (Do I want a 60/40 M/F split as Petracca might be or an 80%+ CBA mid like LDU or Green), the fact that Melbourne as an organisation has left a lot to be desired over the past few years, and the traumatic nature of Petracca's injury. He's definitely still in consideration though.
Jordan Dawson:
It's just so hard to pin this guy down. How on earth do the Crows lineup in the midfield? Is it better for him to play in the guts or more outside from both a player and Supercoach perspective. His Fantasy scoring was absolutely elite last year but his DT:SC was abysmal which is the exact inversion of what you'd expect from an elite user. Is he underpriced because he can't be as bad as he was last year vis a vis disposal effiency or is he overpriced because he won't get the ball as much this year. Were his issues due to his own doing or because of the system around him? So many unanswered questions.
Hayden Young:
Some people are bullish on him; and he might end up being the best pick from Serong, Brayshaw and himself. Obviously a brave move to pick him when more established players like Dawson and Petracca are about the same price.
Ed Richards:
Definitely a consideration, especially as he's probably right in line behind Bont, Treloar and Libba.
Connor Rozee:
He's got upside but probably not enough to be a top 8 mid. More of a M/F than Butters and might become relevant if he gets DPP. Wouldn't be opposed to someone taking a punt.
Will Day:
I understand why others look at him but with the bye and uncertainty of fitness he's not for me.
George Wardlaw:
Needs more tank in my view; probably improves but not enough to be worth it.
Clayton Oliver:
The value is too good to ignore without a smoking gun reason. More likely to play more midfield than Petracca; Petracca might be the better, more professional player but Oliver has a far better Supercoach pedigree and is $100k cheaper and his issues weren't nearly as bad last year.
Jake Soligo:
Same issue as with Dawson but even more speculative. No idea what his role is as of yet.
Adam Cerra:
He was in my absolute first pre-season team months before the team picker came out; but I think his body just won't be good enough and with Jagga Smith the Blues might give Jagga the role Cerra would have if his body was fully reliable.
Finn Callaghan:
With the off-season moves maybe there's an opportunity for more midfield time for Callaghan?
Will Ashcroft:
If he supplants Hugh McCluggage as the 3rd mid then he has good upside. So many questions and the early bye means I need to have a reason to pick him rather than a reason to avoid him.
Harley Reid:
Might push on from that 80 average; but where Ashcroft is in a stacked midfield, Harley has the opposite problem. Don't see him going much better than a 95-100 average at best, but might have a few spike games in the middle.
Jase Burgoyne:
I think Sinn is the more expected player to get Houston's role but I've heard Burgoyne's name mentioned about taking kick-ins. One to watch.
Reuben Ginbey:
A handful of mentions over the pre-season. Though he most likely will play in defense I don't think it'll be as an offensive weapon so I can't see him being Supercoach relevant.
James Peatling:
Hasn't been in my pre-season builds yet but if his role is locked in as a mainstay CBA mid that will certainly change.
Ollie Hollands and Caleb Windsor:
Both reportedly might play off half-back but a wait and see if they get those roles and if their scoring potential looks nice.
Isaac Cumming:
Injury concerns and the question of whether he gets a juicy HB role or a less juicy wing role. Definitely one to watch if it looks like the Crows give him the main distributor role.
What’s your starting midfield and structure?
Rest of the lines must be pretty stacked?LDU, Green, Oliver, Smith,
Draper, Smillie, Sheldrick, Lindsay,
FOS, Kako, Erasmus.
Rest of the lines must be pretty stacked?
I don't think so? I've got a pretty typical forward line, the defence is solid and the rucks aren't top of the line. I think I'm just investing deeply on the bench hence FOS at M9 at the moment.
Not really; you need the rookies with good JS and good roles (which we'll know later ofc) but structurally it makes perfect sense now because I can always move a Kako down to a $119k rookie but I can’t go the other way.Total waste having high priced rookies on the bench. I currently have Kako and Allen on the bench and it's too much.
One thing I noticed is most the top mids average 10-15 ppg better in wins then losses, so if trying to forecast forward should consider which teams will move up or down.
If you think Freo will make a run at top 4, pretty good chance Serong goes close to 120. If you think Port drop off Butters probably averages closer to 110 then 120 ect.
Not always but often. Was the case for Bont, Daicos, Butters, Serong, Petracca, Green last year. Not guessing. I actually did the stats. The only player I looked at that was comprable in wins vs losses was Brayshaw and he was playing outside alot first half of the year when Freo was winning.That's not always the case there different factors that come into not just win/loss.
Going to list out my thoughts on some players:
Marcus Bontempelli
Don't have him in any of my sides so far, just on balance, starting him is probably the 'wrong' call but unless something goes catastrophically wrong he should be up and around that 120 mark again this year.
Zak Butters
Scoring potential is definitely there but is so courageous that he could easily get wiped out for multiple weeks. I see him as an about 115-120 player, so no interest in him from me.
Lachie Neale:
Early bye, up there in age profile, plenty of new blood to help him in Brisbane's midfield.
Nick Daicos:
If I could afford him I'd probably start him over anyone else around his price. I think he can go 120+.
Isaac Heeney:
Breakout season + early bye + uncertainity with new coach.
Adam Treloar:
Age profile + spike season. No interest.
Caleb Serong:
Was someone I slotted in quite often (as I did last year during pre-season before not starting) but I'm cooling on him reading about how his points tailed off as Freo's midfield was adjusted during the year. Still, he's probably a safe 110-115 pick.
Zach Merrett:
Utterly reliable. No interest with the bye but he's priced at 115 and probably goes 115 again in 2025.
Josh Dunkley:
Early bye means a no but he could push up to a 115 average if everything goes right. Probably too many mouths to feed at Brisbane though.
Patrick Cripps:
Brownlow hangover and he's not in that elite echelon of Supercoach mids. If he goes 100-105 it'll be pretty much expected.
Andrew Brayshaw:
Started with some sort of injury and improved as the season went on. Still, I think there is a cap on his ceiling and I reckon he's priced pretty fairly at about 110. Don't see him going up too much further.
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Currently in my side; the #1 mid in a team that should be improving. If Sheezel gets the tag then he could easily get off the chain. Now there's a chance that he plays more forward rotations but in my view he's one of the nailed-on pure midfielders in the rotation. I reckon that he can go 115+.
Jack Steele:
Too many niggles, new midfield around him might help but with 4 or 5 other popular Saints there's no need to take the gamble on him. Probably a 105-110 player.
Sam Walsh:
Started out as a very durable player but now has consistent issues. Hard to tell whether he can break out further but no need to gamble in my view.
Errol Gulden:
If the sub was eliminated, there were no byes and his role was defined as more inside then I'd be interested. As it is, he's not in consideration.
Noah Anderson:
Too inconsistent, early bye an issue as well. Maybe worth looking at for a specific chunk of the season as he can go on a hot streak.
Tom Green:
Currently in my side as he's the #1 mid at the Giants. I'm hoping that natural progression can push him up to that 115+ range and the early bye he has isn't the dreaded Round 3 bye. Still, obviously a risk as it's not as if it's likely he'll get too much more midfield opportunity.
Crouch, Yeo, Libba, Laird, Warner, Miller:
I don't think anyone's really considering these players, not to start at least.
Christian Petracca:
Not in my side at the moment but obviously a very popular pick for good reason. Everything going well he can be 10-15 ppg underpriced. My queries are regarding role (Do I want a 60/40 M/F split as Petracca might be or an 80%+ CBA mid like LDU or Green), the fact that Melbourne as an organisation has left a lot to be desired over the past few years, and the traumatic nature of Petracca's injury. He's definitely still in consideration though.
Jordan Dawson:
It's just so hard to pin this guy down. How on earth do the Crows lineup in the midfield? Is it better for him to play in the guts or more outside from both a player and Supercoach perspective. His Fantasy scoring was absolutely elite last year but his DT:SC was abysmal which is the exact inversion of what you'd expect from an elite user. Is he underpriced because he can't be as bad as he was last year vis a vis disposal effiency or is he overpriced because he won't get the ball as much this year. Were his issues due to his own doing or because of the system around him? So many unanswered questions.
Hayden Young:
Some people are bullish on him; and he might end up being the best pick from Serong, Brayshaw and himself. Obviously a brave move to pick him when more established players like Dawson and Petracca are about the same price.
Ed Richards:
Definitely a consideration, especially as he's probably right in line behind Bont, Treloar and Libba.
Connor Rozee:
He's got upside but probably not enough to be a top 8 mid. More of a M/F than Butters and might become relevant if he gets DPP. Wouldn't be opposed to someone taking a punt.
Will Day:
I understand why others look at him but with the bye and uncertainty of fitness he's not for me.
George Wardlaw:
Needs more tank in my view; probably improves but not enough to be worth it.
Clayton Oliver:
The value is too good to ignore without a smoking gun reason. More likely to play more midfield than Petracca; Petracca might be the better, more professional player but Oliver has a far better Supercoach pedigree and is $100k cheaper and his issues weren't nearly as bad last year.
Jake Soligo:
Same issue as with Dawson but even more speculative. No idea what his role is as of yet.
Adam Cerra:
He was in my absolute first pre-season team months before the team picker came out; but I think his body just won't be good enough and with Jagga Smith the Blues might give Jagga the role Cerra would have if his body was fully reliable.
Finn Callaghan:
With the off-season moves maybe there's an opportunity for more midfield time for Callaghan?
Will Ashcroft:
If he supplants Hugh McCluggage as the 3rd mid then he has good upside. So many questions and the early bye means I need to have a reason to pick him rather than a reason to avoid him.
Harley Reid:
Might push on from that 80 average; but where Ashcroft is in a stacked midfield, Harley has the opposite problem. Don't see him going much better than a 95-100 average at best, but might have a few spike games in the middle.
Jase Burgoyne:
I think Sinn is the more expected player to get Houston's role but I've heard Burgoyne's name mentioned about taking kick-ins. One to watch.
Reuben Ginbey:
A handful of mentions over the pre-season. Though he most likely will play in defense I don't think it'll be as an offensive weapon so I can't see him being Supercoach relevant.
James Peatling:
Hasn't been in my pre-season builds yet but if his role is locked in as a mainstay CBA mid that will certainly change.
Ollie Hollands and Caleb Windsor:
Both reportedly might play off half-back but a wait and see if they get those roles and if their scoring potential looks nice.
Isaac Cumming:
Injury concerns and the question of whether he gets a juicy HB role or a less juicy wing role. Definitely one to watch if it looks like the Crows give him the main distributor role.
Not always but often. Was the case for Bont, Daicos, Butters, Serong, Petracca, Green last year. Not guessing. I actually did the stats. The only player I looked at that was comprable in wins vs losses was Brayshaw and he was playing outside alot first half of the year when Freo was winning.
Probably a combination of teams losing because those important players arent doing well and CD not being as generous to players in losing sides.
Makes me think guys like Daicos, Serong, LDU have upside, as their teams are unlikely to finish much lower then last year, and could potentially go much higher.