20th AFL Team

[Bjo187]

Australian football was the popular code in New Zealand till world war 1 happened and stuffed everything. In fact, it stuffed it becoming the dominant code in NSW and QLD too.

Auckland is the only option for a team there, if they build a good cricket stadium. I still don't think it would be a winner other than attracting some talented Polynesian players to the game.

 

[Saucy]

Australian football was the popular code in New Zealand till world war 1 happened and stuffed everything. In fact, it stuffed it becoming the dominant code in NSW and QLD too.

Auckland is the only option for a team there, if they build a good cricket stadium. I still don't think it would be a winner other than attracting some talented Polynesian players to the game.

I always wonder what it would look like if this was the case.

 

[kranger]

I thought these were interesting graphics. Obviously splitting each of the states population (except for southern NSW) entirely to one code is a bit simplistic. But it helps to demonstrate the massive population of QLD and NSW combined and why the AFL should keep it’s eyes there.

Rugby league in Perth and Papua New Guinea? Here’s what could be next for the NRL (theconversation.com)





Darwin Dingoes, Canberra Capitals, Cairns Crocodiles? Weighing up the options for the AFL’s 20th team (theconversation.com)

 

[Canberra Pear]

I thought these were interesting graphics. Obviously splitting each of the states population (except for southern NSW) entirely to one code is a bit simplistic. But it helps to demonstrate the massive population of QLD and NSW combined and why the AFL should keep it’s eyes there.

Rugby league in Perth and Papua New Guinea? Here’s what could be next for the NRL (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028886


Darwin Dingoes, Canberra Capitals, Cairns Crocodiles? Weighing up the options for the AFL’s 20th team (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028885

This map always annoyed me. I have no idea where it gets its data from, but I think it measures clubs rather than teams.

It has rugby league with more clubs in the ACT (which isn't true), but when measuring teams, footy clubs tend to have team in more divisions. There are 23 men's footy teams compared to 12 rugby league teams in the ACT.

We should be red on that graph.

 

[Bjo187]

This map always annoyed me. I have no idea where it gets its data from, but I think it measures clubs rather than teams.

It has rugby league with more clubs in the ACT (which isn't true), but when measuring teams, footy clubs tend to have team in more divisions. There are 23 men's footy teams compared to 12 rugby league teams in the ACT.

We should be red on that graph.

Plus there are more players in each footy team than rugby league teams.

Also the data makes it look as though r.l has more population, forgetting the fact the sport has near to zero grassroots presence below the barrassi line, where as Australian football has decent participation all throughout nsw and qld.

 

[big_e]

I thought these were interesting graphics. Obviously splitting each of the states population (except for southern NSW) entirely to one code is a bit simplistic. But it helps to demonstrate the massive population of QLD and NSW combined and why the AFL should keep it’s eyes there.

Rugby league in Perth and Papua New Guinea? Here’s what could be next for the NRL (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028886


Darwin Dingoes, Canberra Capitals, Cairns Crocodiles? Weighing up the options for the AFL’s 20th team (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028885

Hard to trust an article that refers to the "demise of the Western Force".

 

[Badger17]

This map always annoyed me. I have no idea where it gets its data from, but I think it measures clubs rather than teams.

It has rugby league with more clubs in the ACT (which isn't true), but when measuring teams, footy clubs tend to have team in more divisions. There are 23 men's footy teams compared to 12 rugby league teams in the ACT.

We should be red on that graph.

Yeah that map is totally wrong. It's missing a bunch of clubs in both sports for a start.

This one is flawed and outdated, but better-https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/

Using the single factor of number of clubs to measure the popularity of each sport in any given region is foolish anyway.

 

[Giant YoYo]

Yeah that map is totally wrong. It's missing a bunch of clubs in both sports for a start.

This one is flawed and outdated, but better-https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/

Using the single factor of number of clubs to measure the popularity of each sport in any given region is foolish anyway.

Both the maps use the same data, if you click on the link below the map under https://theconversation.com/rugby-l...a-heres-what-could-be-next-for-the-nrl-229999 it takes you to the https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/ page.

The website https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/ doesn't mention which clubs are excluded (i.e. Juniors, Juniors club is mentioned in the link for a Norfolk Island junior rugby club so not sure why it would be excluded elsewhere).

For Sydney, in the Conversation map you can't really see Western Magic in Blacktown.

The maps list Camden Cats established 1982 but not Parramatta Goannas from 1979.

Just looking at Sydney, it's missing:

Penrith Rams - https://www.facebook.com/penrithramsafl
Parramatta Goannas - https://www.facebook.com/PARRAMATTAGOANNAS/

Wikipedia has a list which probably summarises it much better (of course, some of these may need to be checked for accuracy) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Sydney



I'll add some of the junior clubs that I can think of just for those who may be interested of junior footy being played in Western Sydney:

Greystanes Goannas - https://www.facebook.com/JuniorGoannas/
Fairfield Falcons - https://www.facebook.com/fairfieldfalconsafl/
South West Tigers - Hoxton Park - https://www.facebook.com/southwesttigersjafc/
Parramatta Lions - https://www.facebook.com/ParramattaLions/
Bankstown Bullsharks - https://www.facebook.com/BankstownAFLclub/

 

[2 eazy]

Australian football was the popular code in New Zealand till world war 1 happened and stuffed everything. In fact, it stuffed it becoming the dominant code in NSW and QLD too.

Auckland is the only option for a team there, if they build a good cricket stadium. I still don't think it would be a winner other than attracting some talented Polynesian players to the game.

Why did WWI cause that to occur

 

[Bjo187]

Why did WWI cause that to occur

I think it was because teams couldn't travel for inter colonial tournaments anymore. They use to have state based (including nz) matches. When the war started that stopped in nz and those states and a decade later the game had faded out.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think it was because teams couldn't travel for inter colonial tournaments anymore. They use to have state based (including nz) matches. When the war started that stopped in nz and those states and a decade later the game had faded out.

There was a also a political movement in the period immediately before WWI to consider an 'Australalasian' political movement. Aus and NZ sent joint teams to the Olympics, for example.

I thought these were interesting graphics. Obviously splitting each of the states population (except for southern NSW) entirely to one code is a bit simplistic. But it helps to demonstrate the massive population of QLD and NSW combined and why the AFL should keep it’s eyes there.

I don't think anyone would claim that an Auckland team would do anything for the code for Aussie Rules in NZ in the same way that the AFL is aiming for the code in Western Sydney (or the Gold Coast), provided there's a stadium for them to play in.

It's just that Auckland is a large, modern cosmopolitan city with a high cost of living in which these yuppie Gen Z and millennial types - who can afford to live in the city - see live sport as an event worth going to. That's contributing to the growth of Sydney and Brisbane's home crowds, and the Warriors have sold out every game at home this season, plus the AFL may get more travelling away fans. Scheduling may be compromised a bit - Friday nights our Sunday nights against Fremantle may have nobody rock up - but it's certainly a less preposterous idea (stadium aside) than Darwin, Carins, a third Adelaide team etc.

 

[2 eazy]

Sunshine Coast is biggest area in Australia without a pro sport team that's great opportunity.

 

[Aussie in exile]

There was a also a political movement in the period immediately before WWI to consider an 'Australalasian' political movement. Aus and NZ sent joint teams to the Olympics, for example.


I don't think anyone would claim that an Auckland team would do anything for the code for Aussie Rules in NZ in the same way that the AFL is aiming for the code in Western Sydney (or the Gold Coast), provided there's a stadium for them to play in.

It's just that Auckland is a large, modern cosmopolitan city with a high cost of living in which these yuppie Gen Z and millennial types - who can afford to live in the city - see live sport as an event worth going to. That's contributing to the growth of Sydney and Brisbane's home crowds, and the Warriors have sold out every game at home this season, plus the AFL may get more travelling away fans. Scheduling may be compromised a bit - Friday nights our Sunday nights against Fremantle may have nobody rock up - but it's certainly a less preposterous idea (stadium aside) than Darwin, Carins, a third Adelaide team etc.

A AFL team in New Zealand is light years away is ever at all.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Sunshine Coast is biggest area in Australia without a pro sport team that's great opportunity.

There are reasons for that. For example, why do you think that the NRL chose to have a second Brisbane team representing the Northern corridor (extending up to the SC) instead of a standalone SC team?

Population projections indicate that the Sunshine Coast will have 418k in another decade. Greater Brisbane is forecast to grow by 310k throughout the same period to be almost 2.85m by 2034. The SC is a short drive from Brisbane and there’s a business case for a train line extension to Maroochydore that will surely get up, further improving transport links between the coast and Brisbane.

If there’s ever going to be a third club in SEQ then it would make more sense to have a team representing Northern Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunny Coast, but that would only be on the proviso that a new Brisbane stadium is built and possibly for club #21-22 (it’s no chance of #20).

It just wouldn’t make sense to have one club representing a (incredibly decentralised) city of barely 400k, while in the same region there’s only one club representing a city of nearly 3m only 100km away. The discrepancy in these populations will only widen as time goes on as well.

 

[Badger17]

Both the maps use the same data, if you click on the link below the map under https://theconversation.com/rugby-l...a-heres-what-could-be-next-for-the-nrl-229999 it takes you to the https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/ page.

The website https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/ doesn't mention which clubs are excluded (i.e. Juniors, Juniors club is mentioned in the link for a Norfolk Island junior rugby club so not sure why it would be excluded elsewhere).

For Sydney, in the Conversation map you can't really see Western Magic in Blacktown.

The maps list Camden Cats established 1982 but not Parramatta Goannas from 1979.

Just looking at Sydney, it's missing:

Penrith Rams - https://www.facebook.com/penrithramsafl
Parramatta Goannas - https://www.facebook.com/PARRAMATTAGOANNAS/

Wikipedia has a list which probably summarises it much better (of course, some of these may need to be checked for accuracy) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Sydney

View attachment 2029581

I'll add some of the junior clubs that I can think of just for those who may be interested of junior footy being played in Western Sydney:

Greystanes Goannas - https://www.facebook.com/JuniorGoannas/
Fairfield Falcons - https://www.facebook.com/fairfieldfalconsafl/
South West Tigers - Hoxton Park - https://www.facebook.com/southwesttigersjafc/
Parramatta Lions - https://www.facebook.com/ParramattaLions/
Bankstown Bullsharks - https://www.facebook.com/BankstownAFLclub/

That may be true, but for whatever reason the Conversation map is missing way more clubs than the other one. I was just putting it out there that there's a better source than Conversation's map.

As I said before I think the whole concept of comparing the popularity of the two codes on a single factor like the number of clubs is deeply flawed. Using that logic soccer is the biggest code in the country by far, and I think we can all agree that simply isn't the case.

 

[kranger]

I thought these were interesting graphics. Obviously splitting each of the states population (except for southern NSW) entirely to one code is a bit simplistic. But it helps to demonstrate the massive population of QLD and NSW combined and why the AFL should keep it’s eyes there.

Rugby league in Perth and Papua New Guinea? Here’s what could be next for the NRL (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028886


Darwin Dingoes, Canberra Capitals, Cairns Crocodiles? Weighing up the options for the AFL’s 20th team (theconversation.com)


View attachment 2028885

Yeah that map is totally wrong. It's missing a bunch of clubs in both sports for a start.

This one is flawed and outdated, but better-https://thepeoplesrepublicofcouch.org/the-barassi-line/

Using the single factor of number of clubs to measure the popularity of each sport in any given region is foolish anyway.

Whilst both maps might be slightly wrong at the micro-level with every specific club, I think they do the job at telling the storey at the macro-level, by showing about where the Barassi Line is.

And how there is potential for an AFL team in Canberra.

 

[Coolangatta]

I always wonder what it would look like if this was the case.

Me too. Surely 18 teams wouldn’t be enough if NSW and QLD had WA like interest in AFL. You’d have to have had conferences or promotion and relegation or two competing major leagues.

In the unlikely scenario the game does explode in popularity in the northern states, I do think we’ll see expansion beyond 20 teams eventually. But it could very well be capped if it prods along.

There are reasons for that. For example, why do you think that the NRL chose to have a second Brisbane team representing the Northern corridor (extending up to the SC) instead of a standalone SC team?

Population projections indicate that the Sunshine Coast will have 418k in another decade. Greater Brisbane is forecast to grow by 310k throughout the same period to be almost 2.85m by 2034. The SC is a short drive from Brisbane and there’s a business case for a train line extension to Maroochydore that will surely get up, further improving transport links between the coast and Brisbane.

If there’s ever going to be a third club in SEQ then it would make more sense to have a team representing Northern Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunny Coast, but that would only be on the proviso that a new Brisbane stadium is built and possibly for club #21-22 (it’s no chance of #20).

It just wouldn’t make sense to have one club representing a (incredibly decentralised) city of barely 400k, while in the same region there’s only one club representing a city of nearly 3m only 100km away. The discrepancy in these populations will only widen as time goes on as well.

I agree with all of that.

But why then did Andrew Dillon almost say if he hadn’t been cut off by BT that maybe North Queensland could support a team in 10-15 years. Obviously it’d have to be an unconventional model but it does surprise me that if there’s ever a third AFL team in QLD, it seems like it’d be based in Cairns rather than Brisbane or even the Sunshine Coast.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

But why then did Andrew Dillon almost say if he hadn’t been cut off by BT that maybe North Queensland could support a team in 10-15 years. Obviously it’d have to be an unconventional model but it does surprise me that if there’s ever a third AFL team in QLD, it seems like it’d be based in Cairns rather than Brisbane or even the Sunshine Coast.

Andrew Dillon talks a lot of hot air. Most AFL CEOs have. I think any talk of a third team in Queensland rests on both a massive jump in popularity and serious population growth. Even if the first condition happened, the second one applies much more to the Sunshine Coast than to Cairns.


(First number is population in June 2023, second is population in June 2011, third is the percentage change).

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Me too. Surely 18 teams wouldn’t be enough if NSW and QLD had WA like interest in AFL. You’d have to have had conferences or promotion and relegation or two competing major leagues.

In the unlikely scenario the game does explode in popularity in the northern states, I do think we’ll see expansion beyond 20 teams eventually. But it could very well be capped if it prods along.

I agree with all of that.

But why then did Andrew Dillon almost say if he hadn’t been cut off by BT that maybe North Queensland could support a team in 10-15 years. Obviously it’d have to be an unconventional model but it does surprise me that if there’s ever a third AFL team in QLD, it seems like it’d be based in Cairns rather than Brisbane or even the Sunshine Coast.

Cairns has 160,000 people and it's split 60/40 to NRL support anyway.

You can't built $40+ million of annual revenue out of a local population of no more than about 75,000 actually footy fans, none of whom are really rich enough business owners to pay the thousands for player sponsorship/coterie memberships etc, consistently.

They play games there because there's an AFL-owned stadium in which several thousand fans will fly up as a tourist city to watch their team.

It's even more ridiculous than Darwin, which itself is also ridiculous.

 

[Coolangatta]

Andrew Dillon talks a lot of hot air. Most AFL CEOs have. I think any talk of a third team in Queensland rests on both a massive jump in popularity and serious population growth. Even if the first condition happened, the second one applies much more to the Sunshine Coast than to Cairns.

View attachment 2030453
(First number is population in June 2023, second is population in June 2011, third is the percentage change).

Cairns has 160,000 people and it's split 60/40 to NRL support anyway.

You can't built $40+ million of annual revenue out of a local population of no more than about 75,000 actually footy fans, none of whom are really rich enough business owners to pay the thousands for player sponsorship/coterie memberships etc, consistently.

They play games there because there's an AFL-owned stadium in which several thousand fans will fly up as a tourist city to watch their team.

It's even more ridiculous than Darwin, which itself is also ridiculous.

Yet Cairns/FNQ was in the AFL poll, not the Sunshine Coast. I think it's because SC is seen as an extension of Brisbane and their territory, while Cairns is far away removed from SE-Q and feels far more new and exotic. Also, the SC has never hosted an AFL game and until that changes, they'll never get a look in.

Hot air or not, these AFL CEOs have just a tad more sway on expansion decisions than any of us do. Rightly or wrongly, Dillon sees way more potential in NQ than we do, and I could see it happening if Darwin ever happens.

But for now, Canberra is a mile in front. WA powerbrokers will not let WA3 happen.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yet Cairns/FNQ was in the AFL poll, not the Sunshine Coast. I think it's because SC is seen as an extension of Brisbane and their territory, while Cairns is far away removed from SE-Q and feels far more new and exotic. Also, the SC has never hosted an AFL game and until that changes, they'll never get a look in.

Hot air or not, these AFL CEOs have just a tad more sway on expansion decisions than any of us do. Rightly or wrongly, Dillon sees way more potential in NQ than we do, and I could see it happening if Darwin ever happens.

But for now, Canberra is a mile in front. WA powerbrokers will not let WA3 happen.

Longer term - if the Swans/Lions (and an indirect contribution Giants/Suns) continue to sell out stadium consistently etc., it's far more likely that additional teams playing out of the SCG and whatever the new home stadium for the Lions will be post-Olympics as teams 21, 22 will be, than whatever fancy new city wants a team.

Brisbane and Sydney will add double the amount of people and more footy fans despite being in Rugby states between now and 2040 or whatever than the entire population of places like Cairns and Darwin.

It's great that there's regional support for footy and we can certainly look to play more games there, but people are just not fully aware of the minimum sizes clubs need to be in a big industry. Hobart (plus Tassie people travelling to Hobart) has more footy fans and people willing to pay money to support the team, but even with this greater size and economy, everyone agrees that the Government will need to top up the local revenue by at least $10 million per year on a consistent and ongoing basis.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

But why then did Andrew Dillon almost say if he hadn’t been cut off by BT that maybe North Queensland could support a team in 10-15 years. Obviously it’d have to be an unconventional model but it does surprise me that if there’s ever a third AFL team in QLD, it seems like it’d be based in Cairns rather than Brisbane or even the Sunshine Coast.

Cairns is 1700km away from Brisbane and NQ has its own regional identity, to such an extent that NQ is like a different state. The rivalry between SEQ and NQ is easily QLD’s biggest intrastate rivalry and this clearly lends itself to sport, which I feel is one of the major reasons why Broncos v Cowboys is the original and best QLD derby in the NRL.

It’s not hard for those based on the Sunny Coast to attend Lions games, the same can’t be said for those in NQ. When you look at Cairns city in isolation, it clearly lacks the critical mass to support an AFL club now and into the future. However, that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story of the region.

Data from Cairns regional council shows that an expected 300k people will be within driving distance of Cairns (less than 2hrs) by 2031. A theoretical Cairns club would also represent the wider NQ region (just like the Cowboys); therefore, with just the three largest NQ cities (Greater Cairns, Townsville, Mackay) you’re looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 750-800k people within the next decade.

There might be a number of better options out there currently, however, I can see why it’s in the conversation. Here are the population forecasts of Queensland’s major regional cities and the regions of Greater Brisbane. If the game ever grew in Qld to such an extent that 4 clubs could be based there, then this is the way that I would carve it up in terms of academy zones, target market, school visits etc:

* Lions - Brisbane City/ South/West out to Ipswich and Toowoomba (since they’re based at Springfield).

* Suns - Gold Coast, Logan and Northern NSW.

* Moreton Bay - MB, Brisbane North and Sunshine Coast.

* North Queensland - based in Cairns but encompassing everything North of Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay, Rocky etc.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Cairns is 1700km away from Brisbane and NQ has its own regional identity, to such an extent that NQ is like a different state. The rivalry between SEQ and NQ is easily QLD’s biggest intrastate rivalry and this clearly lends itself to sport, which I feel is one of the major reasons why Broncos v Cowboys is the original and best QLD derby in the NRL.

It’s not hard for those based on the Sunny Coast to attend Lions games, the same can’t be said for those in NQ. When you look at Cairns city in isolation, it clearly lacks the critical mass to support an AFL club now and into the future. However, that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story of the region.

Data from Cairns regional council shows that an expected 300k people will be within driving distance of Cairns (less than 2hrs) by 2031. A theoretical Cairns club would also represent the wider NQ region (just like the Cowboys); therefore, with just the three largest NQ cities (Greater Cairns, Townsville, Mackay) you’re looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 750-800k people within the next decade.

There might be a number of better options out there currently, however, I can see why it’s in the conversation. Here are the population forecasts of Queensland’s major regional cities and the regions of Greater Brisbane. If the game ever grew in Qld to such an extent that 4 clubs could be based there, then this is the way that I would carve it up in terms of academy zones, target market, school visits etc:

* Lions - Brisbane City/ South/West out to Ipswich and Toowoomba (since they’re based at Springfield).

* Suns - Gold Coast, Logan and Northern NSW.

* Moreton Bay - MB, Brisbane North and Sunshine Coast.

* North Queensland - based in Cairns but encompassing everything North of Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay, Rocky etc.

For me one of the biggest problems of playing games Cairns in March and April is the climate up there with so much rain, which in my opinion would or could destroy the spectacle of the game.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Data from Cairns regional council shows that an expected 300k people will be within driving distance of Cairns (less than 2hrs) by 2031. A theoretical Cairns club would also represent the wider NQ region (just like the Cowboys); therefore, with just the three largest NQ cities (Greater Cairns, Townsville, Mackay) you’re looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 750-800k people within the next decade.


* North Queensland - based in Cairns but encompassing everything North of Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay, Rocky etc.

The presence of any given AFL fan in Townsville or Mackay is both so miniscule and so distant from the actual ability to generate revenue for a Cairns-based team to be effectively meaningless. So a NQ team would have an academy and have players turn up to junior training a few times. How does that result in the AFL or some government body not having to fund the team tens of millions per year?

Keep in mind that there are a total of just 6 playing AFL clubs representing an entire region that you're claiming - ie there are just not many football players/fans in the area: https://websites.mygameday.app/comp_info.cgi?c=0-3393-0-637401-0&pool=1&a=LADDER

 

[Run n Spread]

Cairns is 1700km away from Brisbane and NQ has its own regional identity, to such an extent that NQ is like a different state. The rivalry between SEQ and NQ is easily QLD’s biggest intrastate rivalry and this clearly lends itself to sport, which I feel is one of the major reasons why Broncos v Cowboys is the original and best QLD derby in the NRL.

It’s not hard for those based on the Sunny Coast to attend Lions games, the same can’t be said for those in NQ. When you look at Cairns city in isolation, it clearly lacks the critical mass to support an AFL club now and into the future. However, that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story of the region.

Data from Cairns regional council shows that an expected 300k people will be within driving distance of Cairns (less than 2hrs) by 2031. A theoretical Cairns club would also represent the wider NQ region (just like the Cowboys); therefore, with just the three largest NQ cities (Greater Cairns, Townsville, Mackay) you’re looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 750-800k people within the next decade.

There might be a number of better options out there currently, however, I can see why it’s in the conversation. Here are the population forecasts of Queensland’s major regional cities and the regions of Greater Brisbane. If the game ever grew in Qld to such an extent that 4 clubs could be based there, then this is the way that I would carve it up in terms of academy zones, target market, school visits etc:

* Lions - Brisbane City/ South/West out to Ipswich and Toowoomba (since they’re based at Springfield).

* Suns - Gold Coast, Logan and Northern NSW.

* Moreton Bay - MB, Brisbane North and Sunshine Coast.

* North Queensland - based in Cairns but encompassing everything North of Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay, Rocky etc.

Combine a 6-5 split with the NT call it northern Australia team has a massive identity and you're onto a winner