Player Watch #38 Noah Cumberland - Delisted

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Have a read of his draft preview.

All this talk of him having no defensive side is way overhyped I reckon. I’ll argue all day that his defensive efforts when in the seniors have been acceptable, better than many others that are considered locks in the side yet don’t get the same criticism.
 
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Have a read of his draft preview.

All this talk of him having no defensive side is overhyped I reckon. I’ll argue all day that his defensive efforts when in the seniors have been acceptable, better than many others that are considered locks in the side don’t get the same criticism.
Yeah well he’s become our micro version of Buddy. If you can see all of that in his game then you’re dreaming as he’s just become a schoolboy mini FF. Those days are over for guys his size.
if you read into draft previews every player would be legends. The Silky butterfly would be a triple Brownlow medallist.
 

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Yeah well he’s become our micro version of Buddy. If you can see all of that in his game then you’re dreaming as he’s just become a schoolboy mini FF. Those days are over for guys his size.
if you read into draft previews every player would be legends. The Silky butterfly would be a triple Brownlow medallist.
Did you actually watch him play all last year in the twos and the seniors late on the year?
 
Did you actually watch him play all last year in the twos and the seniors late on the year?
Yes, but as I said he’s now gone backwards in the way he’s playing. It’s like a lazy schoolboy forward. I’m watching this year not historical events.
Theres a reason why he’s had two lifelines.
 

Have a read of his draft preview.

All this talk of him having no defensive side is way overhyped I reckon. I’ll argue all day that his defensive efforts when in the seniors have been acceptable, better than many others that are considered locks in the side yet don’t get the same criticism.

Defensive attributes are not about just chasing and tackling. His ability to be in the right spot for certain plays like stoppages and long balls in etc is crucial for the team’s defensive structure. He has to stay in the game and not drift off. Those slips cause easy exit and or loss of scoring opp.
Others like Mansell and Clarke are switched on the whole time.
 
Yes, but as I said he’s now gone backwards in the way he’s playing. It’s like a lazy schoolboy forward. I’m watching this year not historical events.
Theres a reason why he’s had two lifelines.
Small forward is a tough gig.
He came into the side in round 3.
Had a good impact on games in round 4,5&6. Certainly better output than any other small forward on our list is capable of.
Played a couple of quiet ones in round 7&8 and was dropped from the side.

Barely played against GWS and was far from our worst player last night.

Throw in a few injuries he’s dealt with this year and being asked to play a different role at times in the twos and I’d say his output has been ok without being great, and that’s ok given the lack of consistency in his selection and role.

If MRJ had the output Cumberland had in that round 3- 6 period this board would be saying he’s arrived as a senior player.

Oh, and he lays more tackles than MRJ.

He’s going ok and with a bit of luck will nail down a spot in the side if they give him another string of games. He’s miles better than our next best small forward option right now.
 
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Small forward is a tough gig.
He came into the side in round 3.
Had a good impact on games in round 4,5&6. Certainly better output than any of other small forward on our list is capable of.
Played a couple of quiet ones in round 7&8 and was dropped from the side.

Barely played against GWS and was far from our worst player last night.

Throw in a few injuries he’s dealt with this year and being asked to play a difference role at times in the twos and I’d say his output has been ok without being great, and that’s ok given the lack of consistency in his selection and role.

If MRJ had the output Cumberland had in that round 3- 6 period this board would be saying he’s arrived as a senior player.

Oh, and he lays more tackles than MRJ.

He’s going ok and with a bit of luck will nail down a spot in the side if they give him another string of games. He’s miles better than our next best small forward option right now.
He’s not playing like a genuine SF Is my argument. MRJ if he can’t tackle puts perceived pressure on and allows opponent’s to earn an exit out. Cumberland just gives up and doesn’t have that closing acceleration which puts the footsteps into opponents.
 
Defensive attributes are not about just chasing and tackling. His ability to be in the right spot for certain plays like stoppages and long balls in etc is crucial for the team’s defensive structure. He has to stay in the game and not drift off. Those slips cause easy exit and or loss of scoring opp.
Others like Mansell and Clarke are switched on the whole time.
We allowed MRJ to run around for most of last year looking completely lost in terms of structure and positioning so there’s scope to learn on the job if you bring other strengths to to the table.

He’s a different type to the two you mentioned. He has genuine forward instincts that the other two don’t and a knack of getting in dangerous situations inside 50.

Edit: not meant as a crack at Mansell and Clarke. I believe there’s scope for him to play a different role to them.
 
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He’s not playing like a genuine SF Is my argument. MRJ if he can’t tackle puts perceived pressure on and allows opponent’s to earn an exit out. Cumberland just gives up and doesn’t have that closing acceleration which puts the footsteps into opponents.
Dw Cumberland will be fine in the long run ….. you have my word
 

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Small forward is a tough gig.
He came into the side in round 3.
Had a good impact on games in round 4,5&6. Certainly better output than any other small forward on our list is capable of.
Played a couple of quiet ones in round 7&8 and was dropped from the side.

Barely played against GWS and was far from our worst player last night.

Throw in a few injuries he’s dealt with this year and being asked to play a different role at times in the twos and I’d say his output has been ok without being great, and that’s ok given the lack of consistency in his selection and role.

If MRJ had the output Cumberland had in that round 3- 6 period this board would be saying he’s arrived as a senior player.

Oh, and he lays more tackles than MRJ.

He’s going ok and with a bit of luck will nail down a spot in the side if they give him another string of games. He’s miles better than our next best small forward option right now.

When you say Cumberland lays more tackles than Maurice...in their respective careers, they have averaged similar time on ground. Cumberland averages 10 pressure acts. Maurice averages 18 pressure acts. As we know with Maurice from having it highlighted last year, his pressure acts turn into turnovers that turn into scores, he was leading this stat in the AFL last year from memory.

If Cumberland has been our best small forward in 2023....doesn't it strike you as odd that he has played over 41% game time in 5 matches this year and Richmond have a 0-5 record in those games. But in the other 10 matches, where he didn't play or played 41% of game time or less(ie subbed in or out,) and alternative small forwards were used, our record is 6.5 wins and 3.5 losses.

Sample 1. In the games Cumberland played over 41%(all above 70%,) the opposition scored:

12.17 91 L by 5
18.14 122 L by 44
15.6 96 L by 18
11.6 72 L by 24
20.14 134 L by 81

Average opposition score 15.5 goals and 11.4 behinds = 27 scoring shots average. 104 points average conceded.

Average margin is these matches - 34 points.



Sample 2. In the matches he has not started, opposition scores were:

8.10 58 Draw
10.16 76 W by 32
8.15 63 L by 14
8.10 58 W by 46
11.12 78 W by 24
10.11 71 L by 1
10.17 77 L by 10
15.14 104 W by 6
10.10 70 W by 15
11.4 70 W by 20

10.1 goals and 11.9 behinds = 22 scoring shots on average. 73 points average conceded.

Average margin in this sample is +11.8 points Richmond.


So with Cumberland starting we concede 5.4 more goals per game, 5 extra scoring shots, and opposition accuracy rises from a goal 46% of all scores to a goal 58% of all scores.

The teams he has started against were Bulldogs, Swans, Suns, Demons, Lions. So a pretty decent group of opponents.

The teams he did not start against were Blues, Crows, Magpies, Eagles, Cats, Bombers, Port, GWS, Dockers, Saints.

Bar the Eagles appearing in the second sample there would barely be any difference in quality of opponents between the two samples.

Do we stop to ask at some point why the team seems to function better both offensively and defensively without Cumberland in it? Or so we just say when Cumberland plays he takes more shots at goal than some other small forwards therefore he is outperforming them?

To me your best 22 is the 22 that function best as a team, nothing to do with which players catch the eye more or score more or whatever. Not that Cumberland has been ticking any of those boxes emphatically.
 
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If Cumberland has been our best small forward in 2023....doesn't it strike you as odd that he has played over 41% game time in 5 matches this year and Richmond have a 0-5 record in those games. But in the other 10 matches, where he didn't play or played 41% of game time or less(ie subbed in or out,) and alternative small forwards were used, our record is 6.5 wins and 3.5 losses.

Sample 1. In the games Cumberland played over 41%(all above 70%,) the opposition scored:

12.17 91 L by 5
18.14 122 L by 44
15.6 96 L by 18
11.6 72 L by 24
20.14 134 L by 81

Average opposition score 15.5 goals and 11.4 behinds = 27 scoring shots average. 104 points average conceded.

Average margin is these matches - 34 points.



Sample 2. In the matches he has not started, opposition scores were:

8.10 58 Draw
10.16 76 W by 32
8.15 63 L by 14
8.10 58 W by 46
11.12 78 W by 24
10.11 71 L by 1
10.17 77 L by 10
15.14 104 W by 6
10.10 70 W by 15
11.4 70 W by 20

10.1 goals and 11.9 behinds = 22 scoring shots on average. 73 points average conceded.

Average margin in this sample is +11.8 points Richmond.


So with Cumberland starting we concede 5.4 more goals per game, 5 extra scoring shots, and opposition accuracy rises from a goal 46% of all scores to a goal 58% of all scores.

The teams he has started against were Bulldogs, Swans, Suns, Demons, Lions. So a pretty decent group of opponents.

The teams he did not start against were Blues, Crows, Magpies, Eagles, Cats, Bombers, Port, GWS, Dockers, Saints.

Bar the Eagles appearing in the second sample there would barely be any difference in quality of opponents between the two samples.

Do we stop to ask at some point why the team seems to function better both offensively and defensively without Cumberland in it? Or so we just say when Cumberland plays he takes more shots at goal than some other small forwards therefore he is outperforming them?
You’re ignoring some significant changes in the team outside of Cumberland that have influenced the outcomes.

We have a marginally better win loss record without Lynch this year than we do with him. Does that mean we are better off without him? Of course not.
Stats never tell the full story.

Edit: appreciate the work that went into your figures though!
 
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You’re ignoring some significant changes in the team outside of Cumberland that have influenced the outcomes in the later rounds.

That is right, I have simply considered how the team has functioned with and without Cumberland in terms of Richmond and opposition scoring, and I have considered nothing else. But is it purely coincidental our defensive structure seems to fall apart every time he plays? He literally hasn't played more than 41% game time in any match where we have outperformed expectations. How big a sample do you need to see before you start asking questions?
 
That is right, I have simply considered how the team has functioned with and without Cumberland in terms of Richmond and opposition scoring, and I have considered nothing else. But is it purely coincidental our defensive structure seems to fall apart every time he plays? He literally hasn't played more than 41% game time in any match where we have outperformed expectations. How big a sample do you need to see before you start asking questions?
He has had a 17 game career.
If we extend your approach across all his games I would guess the numbers paint a different picture.

With either approach, I’d argue it’s not fair to state that Cumberland’s actions alone are the determining factor.
 
He has had a 17 game career.
If we extend your approach across all his games I would guess the numbers paint a different picture.

With either approach, I’d argue it’s not fair to state that Cumberland’s actions alone are the determining factor.

I agree you couldn't definitively state Cumberland is the sole reason for the lack of team defensive function in matches he has played this year. But if I were him I would be wanting to prove the team defence can function with him in it.

For the record, games Cumberland played last season all 69% game time or above, opposition scores were:

14.10 94 L by 2 points(Suns)
14.8 92 L by 4(North)
7.10 52 Draw v Finalist(Freo)
14.13 97 W by 7 v Finalist(Lions)
10.11 71 W by 38(Port)
9.13 67 W by 61(Hawthorn)
11.9 75 W by 66(Essendon)
16.10 106 L by 2 in Final(Lions)

Average of 11.8 goals and 10.5 behinds conceded overall. That was a bit above the average conceded when he did not play last year.

His overall playing record in games where he plays full game time is 4 wins 1 draw, 8 losses. Richmond's record in all games in those 2 seasons is 19-2-17. This means that in 2022 & 2023 combined:

With Cumberland playing full game time 4-1-8 31% win rate. 6 of these games v teams with negative w/l ratios for the season. 1 v a team with a neutral w/l ratio. And 6 v teams with negative w/l ratios. So it doesn't look like a skewed sample.

Without Cumberland playing full game time 15-1-9 60% win rate.

It is quite a difference on the negative side if he is our best small forward option.

He is starting to look like a reverse moneyball player to me. Moneyball focussed on players who didn't look great but played in such a way that increased their team's chances of winning. Cumberland is building a CV that looks the opposite of that.
 
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I agree you couldn't definitively state Cumberland is the sole reason for the lack of team defensive function in matches he has played this year. But if I were him I would be wanting to prove the team defence can function with him in it.

For the record, games Cumberland played last season all 69% game time or above, opposition scores were:

14.10 94 L by 2 points(Suns)
14.8 92 L by 4(North)
7.10 52 Draw v Finalist(Freo)
14.13 97 W by 7 v Finalist(Lions)
10.11 71 W by 38(Port)
9.13 67 W by 61(Hawthorn)
11.9 75 W by 66(Essendon)
16.10 106 L by 2 in Final(Lions)

Average of 11.8 goals and 10.5 behinds conceded overall. That was a bit above the average conceded when he did not play last year.

His overall playing record in games where he plays full game time is 4 wins 1 draw, 8 losses. Richmond's record in all games in those 2 seasons is 19-2-17. This means that in 2022 & 2023 combined:

With Cumberland playing full game time 4-1-8 31% win rate. 6 of these games v teams with negative w/l ratios for the season. 1 v a team with a neutral w/l ratio. And 6 v teams with negative w/l ratios. So it doesn't look like a skewed sample.

Without Cumberland playing full game time 15-1-9 60% win rate.

It is quite a difference on the negative side if he is our best small forward option.

He is starting to look like a reverse moneyball player to me. Moneyball focussed on players who didn't look great but played in such a way that increased their team's chances of winning. Cumberland is building a CV that looks the opposite of that.

I’d say he showed he improves the side when in form (last year). To stack up the sides losses as the outcome of his defensive effort is grossly unfair. Last nights game is a good example of that.

Love the stats work put into your argument though👍
 
Too bad we have not seen any X factor this year
He's shown glimpses but he has had a frustrating year on many levels. To me x factor is getting into the right spots and marking the ball as a forward is a pretty important part of forward craft, he did that last night. Nobody else did.

I've advocated for months now that he needs 6 games or so as a high forward going into the midfield in the VFL, but through bye's, injury and being a sub etc he has not had that opportunity. And his form is showing that. Right now I would keep him in the seniors because he was okay last night and there will be no point in dropping him back to find form because the season is pretty much shot. If he finds form then that will be a bonus, if not he is not worse than many of the forward line players this year who have been gifted games as part of development, or because they are 'club men' like Graham.
 
I’d say he showed he improves the side when in form (last year). To stack up the sides losses as the outcome of his defensive effort is grossly unfair. Last nights game is a good example of that.

Love the stats work put into your argument though👍

A player is as good as the effect he has on the team's performance. It is clear from Cumberland's treatment by the selectors this season they don't think he is having a great effect on the team's performance. And we have uncovered some basic facts regarding the team's performance with and without Cumberland that seem to support what the selectors have done. So between the two indicators - the selectors' decisions around Cumberland and the fact the team has performed better without him than with him - I think the truth is likely there for us to see. He needs to change and improve in certain areas so the team performance does not suffer when he plays, even if he does "look great" at certain times when winning the ball.
 
Am I the only one that’s still a fan of Cumberland? Yes, he hasn’t been great since Hardwick mentioned him in a press conference, but he’s often in the right places and has talent.

He has to work on his efforts in the contests though. I feel like he loses a lot of one-on-one contests (whether marking contests or possession contests). His opponent then does some damage.

I still think he’ll make it given his talent. He just has to find a way to gain confidence again. AFL comes with highs and lows, so he has to find ways to manage his confidence levels better.
 
I think he is a way better player than people realise. Potential is huge. But will it be fulfilled?

Could be a top line mid sized forward. Reminds me of a taller Jamie Elliot at times.

Contracted til the end of 2024 and I'd prefer to keep him but if he wants to return to Queensland and there was an early ish pick (15-25) on the table I'd be ok with it.

If Coleman-Jones was worth a pick 19 then so is he.
 

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Player Watch #38 Noah Cumberland - Delisted

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