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Play Nice 46th President of the United States: Joe Biden 2: Incidit in scyllam cupiens vitare charybdim
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- Mar 20, 2007
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If Newsom decided to run (he won't unless Biden steps down) he'd beat Trump
Dixie Flatline
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Biden carried Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020. According to polls by the New York Times and Siena College between 22 October and 3 November, Trump is leading Biden in five of the six key battleground states:
Biden is in trouble, based on these numbers.
www.nytimes.com
- Nevada - Trump 52, Biden 41
- Georgia - Trump 49, Biden 43
- Arizona - Trump 49, Biden 44
- Michigan - Trump 48, Biden 43
- Pennsylvania - Trump 48, Biden 44
- Wisconsin - Biden 47, Trump 45
Biden is in trouble, based on these numbers.
Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.
Newsom has recently vetoed bills passed by his Democratic-majority assembly that would:
- expand financial aid for community college students
- ban self-driving trucks from being on the road without a safety operator on board
- extend unemployment benefits to workers who have been on strike for more than two weeks
- impose rules and transparency on the state’s largely unregulated cryptocurrency industry
- limit the prices of insulin and hearing aids
Gretchen Whitmer makes the most sense to me, whatever my own preference for an outsider. She's the popular Governor of a must-win state who sits well within the Democratic establishment, though on the liberal end of it. She's managed to not really be too divisive and won reelection last year 5% of her party's vote in her state.
- Apr 4, 2006
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Disclaimer: I'm a close (possibly too close!) follower of Australian politics, but not so aware of some of the minor or up-and-comers in US politics.
May appear flippant, but there were several high-profile non-politicians suggested at the last US election, e.g. Dwayne Johnson, Schwarzenneger, Michelle Obama and others - who all denied (at least publicly) they were even interested.
Given Biden's age, and Harris' apparent lack of popularity/support, is there an opening here for some Dems, or even an independent group/Sanders-backers, to put up an outsider to at least run against Biden, see whether they can gain any traction and support, and potentially fall in behind them? I can't recall if Schwarzenneger has completely cut ties with the GOP, but the others all seemed to be proposed as Dem alternatives.
The challenge of course would then be to tackle Trump - I suspect a Johnson/M.Obama/T.Hanks(?) would have a lot of goodwill from voters in California and the east coast - maybe not the support to overhaul Trump in the less progressive states?
We've seen with Zelenskyy that an actual political background is not the base requirement in some countries that it is in Australian politics (and also in unique circumstances), and modern US politics, at least superficially, seems to rely more on 'advisers' backing a 'name' (figure-head?) in the White House, and less independent policy or action from the incumbent themselves (maybe B.Obama excluded, but even he appeared beholden to military/security parameters) - again compared to Aus politics.
Anyway, probably a very superficial reading of the US situation - and certainly something I would never advocate locally. The ALP tried in desperation to turn to what I suspect they believed to be a 'populist' leader leading up to the 2004 federal election - with an almost predictable slow motion train wreck the result.
May appear flippant, but there were several high-profile non-politicians suggested at the last US election, e.g. Dwayne Johnson, Schwarzenneger, Michelle Obama and others - who all denied (at least publicly) they were even interested.
Given Biden's age, and Harris' apparent lack of popularity/support, is there an opening here for some Dems, or even an independent group/Sanders-backers, to put up an outsider to at least run against Biden, see whether they can gain any traction and support, and potentially fall in behind them? I can't recall if Schwarzenneger has completely cut ties with the GOP, but the others all seemed to be proposed as Dem alternatives.
The challenge of course would then be to tackle Trump - I suspect a Johnson/M.Obama/T.Hanks(?) would have a lot of goodwill from voters in California and the east coast - maybe not the support to overhaul Trump in the less progressive states?
We've seen with Zelenskyy that an actual political background is not the base requirement in some countries that it is in Australian politics (and also in unique circumstances), and modern US politics, at least superficially, seems to rely more on 'advisers' backing a 'name' (figure-head?) in the White House, and less independent policy or action from the incumbent themselves (maybe B.Obama excluded, but even he appeared beholden to military/security parameters) - again compared to Aus politics.
Anyway, probably a very superficial reading of the US situation - and certainly something I would never advocate locally. The ALP tried in desperation to turn to what I suspect they believed to be a 'populist' leader leading up to the 2004 federal election - with an almost predictable slow motion train wreck the result.
- Mar 20, 2007
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Any serious alternate democratic candidate (not you RFK Jnr) isn't going to directly challenge and attempt to primary the sitting president. If they are unsuccessful (which historically they have always been), then this will be enough doubt to hand Trump the general election win.
The only way we see alternate candidates thrown into the mix is if Biden himself rules himself out. And he's running out of time to do that.
The only way we see alternate candidates thrown into the mix is if Biden himself rules himself out. And he's running out of time to do that.
A health issue might force him to bow out
- Mar 20, 2007
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But when though ?
Primaries will start in February. Alternate candidates are going to need time to launch campaigns, have debates and get their messages out to the voters etc.
Most of the Republican candidates (which I know are irrelevant as they won't get the nomination) started campaigning in June and have already held multiple debates.
If Biden is not going to run, the longer he holds off on announcing it, the more damage he is doing for the potential replacement candidates.
Based on all this, I think he runs again and honestly don't know how he goes.
- Apr 4, 2006
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Yeah, all good points, thanks. I didn't really consider the extended lead-in to a US election.
Not exactly a Bill Hayden/Bob Hawke/drover's dog opportunity!
- Mar 20, 2007
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To be fair though if Trump becomes ineligible with all his legal woes, then both parties might be able to arrange the last minute scramble for an alternate candidate.
There must be some machinations going on behind the scenes, in protected meeting rooms, setting up potential campaigns if something changes. But it would just be like the DNC to AWOL here.
IF they got some extensive contingency planning then they have had very good security against leaks so far. I can see a strategic leak and an important moment, or also an investigative article exposing it.
I just effin hope they've got someone and the opening campaign moves if and when Biden bows out. I don't mind him for the election and one year in new term, but would rather have a new charismatic, tough, manager rise up.
IF they got some extensive contingency planning then they have had very good security against leaks so far. I can see a strategic leak and an important moment, or also an investigative article exposing it.
I just effin hope they've got someone and the opening campaign moves if and when Biden bows out. I don't mind him for the election and one year in new term, but would rather have a new charismatic, tough, manager rise up.
either way it goes, in or out, it's a bit of a Death Watch
Problem for biden is that if he quits presidency and running again , comer et al will drag him thru the clown show .
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This is why I floated Newsom earlier.
I have noticed he's doing a lot more national profile type stuff lately, under the guise of campaigning for Biden. He's participating in a debate with DeSantis later this month on Fox. There will no doubt be some DNC powerbrokers keeping an eye on how that goes.
Unless the georgia case is finished before next nov and he found guilty . Then if he runs and wins ,the fed cases will get dropped Jan20 2025 at 12.01 pmeither way it goes, in or out, it's a bit of a Death Watch
Dixie Flatline
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I thought Arnie was ineligible to run for President because he wasn't born in the US.
Anyway, he's still very much a Republican, at least based on his podcast interview with Marc Maron a month or so back when Arnie was promoting his new book. He just happens to be less right wing than his party has drifted since Trump burst on the scene.
Anyway, he's still very much a Republican, at least based on his podcast interview with Marc Maron a month or so back when Arnie was promoting his new book. He just happens to be less right wing than his party has drifted since Trump burst on the scene.
Oh yes, he is circling, waiting for the opening should it come. He would, like a lot of Dem hopefuls, need to up his game to win those moderate conservatives who may be repulsed by MAGA GOP. I think for many of the flyover swing, electoral college states is as a lib, coastal snob.
Yes, it is all about how early it happens.
The only issue is that voters in swing states will be put off by him being from California, very easy to attack if you're targeting voters who are susceptible to gut feel politics. He is pretty good at debate and presentation, but he'll get hit hard. California also has some significant issues (aside from the usual "woke socialist" jibes), though the usual comparisons that conservatives make with Florida, Texas are embellished.
Haven't seen as much of them, but Whitmer and Shapiro might track better in the mid-west, Arizona, Georgia etc.
Was kind of hoping Jon Stewart would run after his Apple deal fell apart.
If the problem with Newson is putting people off in swing states, I'm not sure Jon Stewart is the answer.
It's more what Newsom represents. Conservatives have been using California as a punching bag for years, going on about how it's a failed state, people are leaving in droves, taxation out of control etc. They'd label both Newsom and Stewart as woke socialists, but with Newsom they can tie him to the picture that they've painted of California.
Stewart gets some begrudging respect from some conservative circles for his campaigning over first responder and veterans bills, and I think people would see him as more sincere (than Newsom anyway). In any case, I don't expect him to run, he's indicated he's not interested at all, and I don't think he'd have many friends in the Democratic establishment, certainly not up against Biden or Newsom.
Yes trump and the republicans will go on about Muslim bans and full on Islamophobia which will make Biden’s tacit support of Israel and vague calls for restraint seem comparatively progressive.
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