4th Ashes Test England v Australia July 19-23 1930hrs @ Old Trafford

[greyhound punter]

Betfair market, where people actually risk their legal or illegal gains on their opinions, is pricing up the draw @ 51% probability and the England win at 42% probability.

A significant post stumps move and one that makes me think the weather may be deteriorating.

The market loves bazball, so having the draw as favourite is significant.

Don't worry about the forecast. Just go to betfair and watch the prices moves.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Aussies held the reins for two Tests so cut out the doom and gloom. Early wickets tomorrow then a big second dig by remembering we still play traditional Test cricket by using a good technique and not tossing away our wickets, then again the match may go down to the wire.

But.... Do we?

Root comes out to bat at a critical juncture in the match. Previous history would suggest he is susceptible to knicking off early in his innings'. To my mind, traditional test cricket would suggest you have 2/3 slips, gully, point, cover, mid-off, mid-on, fine leg (mid-wicket if only 2 slips) and bowl good line and length in the channel just outside off stump.

Unless my eyes are far worse that I care to give them credit for, our approach last night could not have been further away from what a traditional test approach would look like.

 

[One Dimensional]

Betfair market, where people actually risk their legal or illegal gains on their opinions, is pricing up the draw @ 51% probability and the England win at 42% probability.

A significant post stumps move and one that makes me think the weather may be deteriorating.

The market loves bazball, so having the draw as favourite is significant.

Don't worry about the forecast. Just go to betfair and watch the prices moves.

Been looking at the markets throughout the whole series.
Espeically after a wicket. Gives a good indication.

 

[PhatBoy]

Well they pulled back when wickets were lost, basically. IF we can take early wickets today, they will naturally slow down a touch.

Absolutely but you would assume that if those wickets fell at the start of a session and not the back half of the last part of the day, they’d have probably cracked on

 

[Carn The Berries]

Been looking at the markets throughout the whole series.
Espeically after a wicket. Gives a good indication.

Can someone please speak to Sky and get this market put up instead of Winviz? I'd like to see analysis that actually has some merit to it!

 

[BGman]

Time to forget the ashes and think about the future... wait we have none. Not 1 single batsman is coming through at shield level and our bowlers aren't much better.

Doom merchants. We have plenty of promise coming thru in both bowlers and bats, a few names to bandy about, Bartlett, Johnson, Hardie, Morris, Neil-Smith (ball), Ward, Hunt, Wyllie, Kellaway, Chandrasinghe, Connolly (bat), and if they can stay injury free Jhye Richardson and Will Pucovski..

 

[FredLeDeux]

Well they pulled back when wickets were lost, basically. IF we can take early wickets today, they will naturally slow down a touch.

If Brook and Stokes ain't slogging, they ain't scoring

 

[Balls In]

How about trying this tactic. As the Poms are batting as in a white ball game, we need to be bowling as in one too, with change ups, slow or wide yorkers, slow bouncers etc, instead of dishing up length ball after length ball or for a change half trackers.

Just bowl predictable line and length outside off and set a field to that. Cummins and McDonald persisting with this short straight stuff to Crawley was the main issue, constantly resulted in chest high balls sitting up off the pitch which were right in his wheelhouse and resulted in about 120 of his 180 to the legside.

 

[PhatBoy]

If Brook and Stokes ain't slogging, they ain't scoring

This ignores a hell of a lot of evidence.

Stokes has proven that while his most memorable and effective cricket is cavalier batsmanship, he is very versatile and behind root he boasts the best technique of all the English batsmen for just playing normal, percentage cricket. Brook is incredibly underestimated in this forum. He basically couldn’t have done anything better in his brief career so far and most of it is through normal strokeplay. Just at a higher rate than most.

 

[swingdog]

This ignores a hell of a lot of evidence.

Stokes has proven that while his most memorable and effective cricket is cavalier batsmanship, he is very versatile and behind root he boasts the best technique of all the English batsmen for just playing normal, percentage cricket. Brook is incredibly underestimated in this forum. He basically couldn’t have done anything better in his brief career so far and most of it is through normal strokeplay. Just at a higher rate than most.

You know the rules of this forum PhatBoy, if it doesn't happen in the Australian summer, it doesn't count.

 

[PhatBoy]

You know the rules of this forum PhatBoy, if it doesn't happen in the Australian summer, it doesn't count.

Hahaha very true

 

[aabp1978]

Possibly. If it starts with rain and we lose an hour, they may declare straightaway. Or get the lead over 100 as quick as possible. I think we'll see some fireworks immediately.

At the moment feels like any lead might be enough. We looked shot last night. Could get rolled very quickly, especially with grey skies around.

 

[greyhound punter]

This ignores a hell of a lot of evidence.

Stokes has proven that while his most memorable and effective cricket is cavalier batsmanship, he is very versatile and behind root he boasts the best technique of all the English batsmen for just playing normal, percentage cricket. Brook is incredibly underestimated in this forum. He basically couldn’t have done anything better in his brief career so far and most of it is through normal strokeplay. Just at a higher rate than most.

Remember Phat, less is more mate.

 

[Kid A]

Betfair market, where people actually risk their legal or illegal gains on their opinions, is pricing up the draw @ 51% probability and the England win at 42% probability.

A significant post stumps move and one that makes me think the weather may be deteriorating.

The market loves bazball, so having the draw as favourite is significant.

Don't worry about the forecast. Just go to betfair and watch the prices moves.

Forecast for Friday steadily deteriorating. Looks like we will be lucky to have 2 full sessions.

That said the forecast for Sunday seems to have improved a bit.

 

[frankrizzo]

Betfair market, where people actually risk their legal or illegal gains on their opinions, is pricing up the draw @ 51% probability and the England win at 42% probability.

A significant post stumps move and one that makes me think the weather may be deteriorating.

The market loves bazball, so having the draw as favourite is significant.

Don't worry about the forecast. Just go to betfair and watch the prices moves.

Are you a shill account? you joined few months ago and seems like bulk of your posts are about sports betting and the odds.

 

[BACCS]

This ignores a hell of a lot of evidence.

Stokes has proven that while his most memorable and effective cricket is cavalier batsmanship, he is very versatile and behind root he boasts the best technique of all the English batsmen for just playing normal, percentage cricket. Brook is incredibly underestimated in this forum. He basically couldn’t have done anything better in his brief career so far and most of it is through normal strokeplay. Just at a higher rate than most.

Brook seems far more suited to 50 and 20 over cricket long term, but time will tell I guess.

 

[BACCS]

Forecast for Friday steadily deteriorating. Looks like we will be lucky to have 2 full sessions.

That said the forecast for Sunday seems to have improved a bit.

Very interesting to see how both sides play it if we lose more play than expected today, all day Saturday and then a better chance of play for day 5.

 

[damochandler]

They are playing like they are hoping the rain comes.

 

[The Tilt]

A plausible path to victory for Australia:

• England declare without adding to their score, with a delayed start to Day 3.
• Australia get a lead of 200, with day 4 washed out, and interruptions in day 3 and 5.
• England seek to try to chase 200 in the 30 overs remaining, get bowled out for 180.

3-1.

 

[M Malice]

I am tipping England all out with around a 200 run lead and we're 5-120 at stumps and staring down the barrel of an innings defeat and resorting to rain dances.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I am tipping England all out with around a 200 run lead and we're 5-120 at stumps and staring down the barrel of an innings defeat and resorting to rain dances.

Why are all of a sudden completely collapsing with the bat? The wicket isn't doing the bowlers any favours. Unless you think that we are just going to pack it mentally.

 

[Aussie in exile]

No doubt in my mind with the weather that this test will end up being a draw meaning we retain The Ashes

 

[Santana]

Very interesting to see how both sides play it if we lose more play than expected today, all day Saturday and then a better chance of play for day 5.

Think England may decare straight away tonight

 

[PhatBoy]

Brook seems far more suited to 50 and 20 over cricket long term, but time will tell I guess.

His first class record suggests he isn’t going to be sitting somewhere between Graham Pollock and Don Bradman when he retires as far as all time records go but I think of all the England players this style comes easier to him than anyone, the general ease with which he plays combined with some of the little brain melts that cost him his wicket are probably going to garner him higher levels of criticism than other players

 

[Portmagpies36]

Showed a poor mindset (lefts play for a draw) imo to pick two all rounders espeically Green who has been in poor form. Play for a draw and you're likely to be in a negative mindset and batting played like it

And the opposition can smell it a mile off