Player Watch #5: Christian Petracca – Norm Smith Medallist, 4x All-Australian and 2x Best and Fairest (re-commits to Melbourne)

[Topkent]

Unfortunately he's really only had two seasons over 2020 and 2021 where he has lived up to his talent.

He's a very very good player. Not one of the elite at all especially with his pants shitting infront of goal for a guy who is a forward of centre player who also struggles to win one on one marks inside 50

 

[Bluelegs]

He's a very very good player. Not one of the elite at all especially with his pants shitting infront of goal for a guy who is a forward of centre player who also struggles to win one on one marks inside 50

One of the reasons I want us to get more midfielders in is cause I think Petracca would benefit a lot from not feeling like he's gotta be the man every week. Some players live for that responsibility, but it puts him into his own head too much.

 

[Lord Nev]

He's a very very good player. Not one of the elite at all especially with his pants shitting infront of goal for a guy who is a forward of centre player who also struggles to win one on one marks inside 50

Agree on the goal kicking, but the bloke averages 0.5 offensive one on ones per game so not sure how accurately you can measure the one on one marks inside 50.

Easily our best player for score involvements/goal assists, just needs to get the kicking (field and goal) sorted.

 

[BaliDemon]

There's the stats BaliDemon. 26.1% for the season and dead last in the comp (out of players who have had 30+ shots).

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He should be embarrassed. That is pathetic given his reputation and wage.

 

[Lampers]

Agree on the goal kicking, but the bloke averages 0.5 offensive one on ones per game so not sure how accurately you can measure the one on one marks inside 50.

Easily our best player for score involvements/goal assists, just needs to get the kicking (field and goal) sorted.

This is the conundrum with Trac.

He generates so many opportunities for himself and teammates that almost every other player at Melbourne wouldn’t stand a chance to generate in the first place.

Recently he has generated several from forward stoppages where it’s a quick kick on his left that floats off somewhere. Technically it’s a shot, but really you wouldn’t expect many players to be able to win the ball to have a shot, never mind kicking the goal on the non-preferred in traffic.

So his lack of accuracy as a straight comparative to someone like JvR is a bit unfair. JvR is basically taking 90% set shots vs. Trac who I reckon would be 60-75% shots in general play.

That’s different to saying Trac’s accurate, he’s not. He’s 28 or whatever. He is what he is. If he had Toby Greene or prime Dustin Martin finishing skills there would be no debate on who is the best player in the league. He’d be kicking 40+ goals every year while being in the top handful for disposals and contested possessions.

We are focussing on his conversion at the moment, but he wins the ball so consistently and bursts away in the midfield like very few others can.

He’s still a match winner and comfortably a net positive player. He could be so much better, but he’s still very, very good even with his flaws.

 

[Topkent]

Agree on the goal kicking, but the bloke averages 0.5 offensive one on ones per game so not sure how accurately you can measure the one on one marks inside 50.

Easily our best player for score involvements/goal assists, just needs to get the kicking (field and goal) sorted.

Put the stats away for one minute though, do you think when you watch him he takes advantage of his size and power one on one inside the 50 enough? He should be an absolute nightmare to play on F50 but he just never seems to really do it. He can shrug a tackle and get off a shot but he should be shoving blokes out of the way like Hawkins and taking marks.

 

[Lord Nev]

Put the stats away for one minute though, do you think when you watch him he takes advantage of his size and power one on one inside the 50 enough? He should be an absolute nightmare to play on F50 but he just never seems to really do it. He can shrug a tackle and get off a shot but he should be shoving blokes out of the way like Hawkins and taking marks.

No I don't think so, but I reckon that's because of lack of opportunity rather than not being able to do it, that's why I'd like to see him forward more even if Clarry isn't back. He's a high quality ground ball player and can create opportunities in one on one situations, and that's exactly what we need more of inside 50 IMO.

 

[Lord Nev]

This is the conundrum with Trac.

He generates so many opportunities for himself and teammates that almost every other player at Melbourne wouldn’t stand a chance to generate in the first place.

Recently he has generated several from forward stoppages where it’s a quick kick on his left that floats off somewhere. Technically it’s a shot, but really you wouldn’t expect many players to be able to win the ball to have a shot, never mind kicking the goal on the non-preferred in traffic.

So his lack of accuracy as a straight comparative to someone like JvR is a bit unfair. JvR is basically taking 90% set shots vs. Trac who I reckon would be 60-75% shots in general play.

That’s different to saying Trac’s accurate, he’s not. He’s 28 or whatever. He is what he is. If he had Toby Greene or prime Dustin Martin finishing skills there would be no debate on who is the best player in the league. He’d be kicking 40+ goals every year while being in the top handful for disposals and contested possessions.

We are focussing on his conversion at the moment, but he wins the ball so consistently and bursts away in the midfield like very few others can.

He’s still a match winner and comfortably a net positive player. He could be so much better, but he’s still very, very good even with his flaws.

Agreed, but he admitted himself this week that the lack of accuracy is mostly down to going a bit too quick. If he can break away and then take that extra split second to settle he can dramatically improve his kicking. But as above, he needs to play more forward IMO, and that would help him do that as well I reckon.

 

[Crusty Demon]

When he is targeted in the F50, he rarely loses a contest. I don't know how anyone can dispute this? Before last round, he had been targeted 13 times and won the ball 12 times. He won the ball again numerous times in the F50 against GWS. The guy is a beast! Clean up the conversion and tidy up his kicking and he'd be the #1 player in the comp. Maybe it has been a focus for Goodwin and coaches and he will never be anything else but an ordinary kick, but if i was Trac and Goody over the summer, that's all I'd be working on. Could be the difference between winning finals and not.

 

[Lampers]

When he is targeted in the F50, he rarely loses a contest. I don't know how anyone can dispute this? Before last round, he had been targeted 13 times and won the ball 12 times. He won the ball again numerous times in the F50 against GWS. The guy is a beast! Clean up the conversion and tidy up his kicking and he'd be the #1 player in the comp. Maybe it has been a focus for Goodwin and coaches and he will never be anything else but an ordinary kick, but if i was Trac and Goody over the summer, that's all I'd be working on. Could be the difference between winning finals and not.

I don’t disagree that Trac’s good at winning contests, but what sort of opponent did he have in those forward contests? If he was targeted 13 times for the season that’s a low number so he was probably against another mid he dragged with him. I’d expect Trac to monster a normal sized mid in the air and on the ground.

If Trac was played as a forward, who would the opposition put on him? I’d be guessing a big strong key position type who would probably gobble up most aerial contests against Trac. Someone with proper defensive training would be a different proposition.

Is Trac smart enough to play the type of game that exploits his strengths vs. the opposition? I don’t know, he seems to be an instinctual type of player.

 

[Topkent]

No I don't think so, but I reckon that's because of lack of opportunity rather than not being able to do it, that's why I'd like to see him forward more even if Clarry isn't back. He's a high quality ground ball player and can create opportunities in one on one situations, and that's exactly what we need more of inside 50 IMO.

Yeah we never isolate him deep, seems like the most obvious move in history but we don't seem to want to.

 

[Scythe94]

Not trying to pile on too much, but not only are Trac's goalkicking stats from this year horrific, he's also the third least accurate career goalkicker since 2002 (of those that have taken at least 300 shots at goal).

Only Danyle Pearce

Danyle Pearce

Age

38

Ht

178cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.8

5star

K

13.1

5star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.6

3star

G

0.8

4star

and Devon Smith

5

Devon Smith

Age

31

Ht

176cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.8

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

5.3

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.0

5star

G

0.6

4star

D

15.6

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.0

5star

G

0.2

3star

rank worse.

Data reveals startling goalkicking trend as winter takes hold

Goalkicking accuracy in 2023, like in previous seasons, dropped significantly in June as data reveals the best and worst in the competition

www.afl.com.au

 

[Lord Nev]

Not trying to pile on too much, but not only are Trac's goalkicking stats from this year horrific, he's also the third least accurate career goalkicker since 2002 (of those that have taken at least 300 shots at goal).

Only Danyle Pearce and Devon Smith rank worse.

Data reveals startling goalkicking trend as winter takes hold

Goalkicking accuracy in 2023, like in previous seasons, dropped significantly in June as data reveals the best and worst in the competition

www.afl.com.au

TBF that's brought down A LOT by the last 2 years - 26.1% and 27.5%

Between 2017-2021 (inclusive) he went at 48.36%, which is not that bad. (His career average is 39.9%).

 

[Crusty Demon]

I don’t disagree that Trac’s good at winning contests, but what sort of opponent did he have in those forward contests? If he was targeted 13 times for the season that’s a low number so he was probably against another mid he dragged with him. I’d expect Trac to monster a normal sized mid in the air and on the ground.

If Trac was played as a forward, who would the opposition put on him? I’d be guessing a big strong key position type who would probably gobble up most aerial contests against Trac. Someone with proper defensive training would be a different proposition.

Is Trac smart enough to play the type of game that exploits his strengths vs. the opposition? I don’t know, he seems to be an instinctual type of player.

Maybe it's time to find out. Sure, defenders will most likely be tougher to play on, but how about trying to exploit an opponent? Has Goody even tried? Goody just doesn't throw magnets around enough. We could have tried different things against WCE, Hawks, Kangas etc. He tried Koz in the middle for all of 1 game and Petty up forward for 2 games. That's about it. He hasn't got the ability to try up different things. Bowey forward? Koz on ball? Petty full time forward? Trac a full game forward? He dips his toe in the water then gets gunshy if it doesn't quite work. Same with selections. Woey, Howes, Laurie, Disco, JVR(last year).

 

[Bluelegs]

TBF that's brought down A LOT by the last 2 years - 26.1% and 27.5%

Between 2017-2021 (inclusive) he went at 48.36%, which is not that bad. (His career average is 39.9%).

29 goals in 2021. Wtf happened.

 

[Lord Nev]

29 goals in 2021. Wtf happened.

I was gonna say maybe he played more forward, but 2021 is the year he had his highest CBA %.

There's not a huge difference in his average goals though, we had more games in 2021 so that helped the total, but as far as per game he was 1.2 in 2021 and 2017, but his career average is 0.9. This year so far he's 0.8, so it hasn't really wildly fluctuated as far as averages go.

 

[danster168]

When he is targeted in the F50, he rarely loses a contest. I don't know how anyone can dispute this? Before last round, he had been targeted 13 times and won the ball 12 times. He won the ball again numerous times in the F50 against GWS. The guy is a beast! Clean up the conversion and tidy up his kicking and he'd be the #1 player in the comp. Maybe it has been a focus for Goodwin and coaches and he will never be anything else but an ordinary kick, but if i was Trac and Goody over the summer, that's all I'd be working on. Could be the difference between winning finals and not.

This isn't a new problem for Petracca though. He was the most inaccurate kick for goal in the AFL last season too. And I think bottom 5 in the entire AFL the season before. This is not something new and not something he hasn't tried to improve. He's just not good at it. Just like in basketball, not everyone has the same eye and can shoot threes well despite practicing more. It always staggered me that people (including some coaches) played Petracca fwd. the guy can't kick, it's the last position he should be playing.

 

[schmuttt]

His best games these days are like against Carlton when he plays the primary extractor role and beats the first tackler to dish off when he wins the ball. He’s arguably better than Oliver in that role but doesn’t play it as much with Clarry in the team.

 

[Lord Nev]

This isn't a new problem for Petracca though. He was the most inaccurate kick for goal in the AFL last season too. And I think bottom 5 in the entire AFL the season before. This is not something new and not something he hasn't tried to improve. He's just not good at it. Just like in basketball, not everyone has the same eye and can shoot threes well despite practicing more. It always staggered me that people (including some coaches) played Petracca fwd. the guy can't kick, it's the last position he should be playing.

Yet he went at 68.4% goal accuracy in 2017.

"The guy can't kick" is simply not true.

 

[danster168]

Yet he went at 68.4% goal accuracy in 2017.

"The guy can't kick" is simply not true.

the last 3 seasons he has been the worst kick at goal in the afl for those that have kicked over 10 goals. Fair to say, it's been an Achilles heel for him for 3 years and counting.

Surely you can tell by his ball drop that he isn't a good kick. Good kicks don't have high ball drops like his.

 

[Lord Nev]

the last 3 seasons he has been the worst kick at goal in the afl for those that have kicked over 10 goals. Fair to say, it's been an Achilles heel for him for 3 years and counting.

Surely you can tell by his ball drop that he isn't a good kick. Good kicks don't have high ball drops like his.

That's incorrect. This year and last year that's true, but he wasn't in 2021. Ainsworth and Wines both worse than him in 2021.

Obviously this year and last he has been really poor, but 68.4% accuracy in 2017 tells you it's not a matter of 'the guy just can't kick'.

 

[danster168]

That's incorrect. This year and last year that's true, but he wasn't in 2021. Ainsworth and Wines both worse than him in 2021.

Obviously this year and last he has been really poor, but 68.4% accuracy in 2017 tells you it's not a matter of 'the guy just can't kick'.

I mean worst in the league across a 3 year period. Trac is the worst. Just because he kicked straight in 2017 doesn't mean he isn't a poor kick.

 

[Lord Nev]

I mean worst in the league across a 3 year period. Trac is the worst. Just because he kicked straight in 2017 doesn't mean he isn't a poor kick.

It's mostly the last two year where he's been really bad. If you're saying he's a poor kick due to that then prior to 2022 I hope you said he was a sensational
kick.

 

[danster168]

It's mostly the last two year where he's been really bad. If you're saying he's a poor kick due to that then prior to 2022 I hope you said he was a sensational
kick.

I think if you look at his career, he's never been a sensational kick. 2017 was good. the other years were average (By that I mean neither good nor bad) and the last 2 years he's been the worst kick for goal out of 600 afl players, absolutely disgusting. Thats hard to do. It's mostly due to his high ball drop. It'll never be consistent. A shame Choco hasn't done anything about. And mind boggling that no coach has fixed it 8 years into his career.

 

[Lord Nev]

I think if you look at his career, he's never been a sensational kick. 2017 was good. the other years were average (By that I mean neither good nor bad) and the last 2 years he's been the worst kick for goal out of 600 afl players, absolutely disgusting. Thats hard to do. It's mostly due to his high ball drop. It'll never be consistent. A shame Choco hasn't done anything about. And mind boggling that no coach has fixed it 8 years into his career.

Well no, I don't think 600 AFL players all kicked more than 10 goals, which was your criteria yes?

I think he's shown he can be a good kick for goal, but his last 2 years are a mess for some reason. I think he can get back to a decent level given he's done that for more of his career than not.