Analysis A look at our “significant” losses over the years 2015-2023

[John Who]

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compare seasons’ losses over the years from our premiership contending years 2015-2018 up until 2023. Basically, I’m hoping this might give us a different vantage point of whether we’ve genuinely improved in our competitiveness and if so, by a rough “how much have we improved?”

I’m not really interested in the close losses, because those games could have gone either way on how the ball bounces in the last few minutes. From the stats below, I’m going to disregard any losses of 4 goals or less, because that would translate to us being by and large competitive for the majority of the game. So a “significant loss” listed below is a loss of 5 goals or more.

2015 - 5 significant losses (57, 29, 56, 52, 39 points) ~ 23% for the season.

2016 - 2 significant losses (30, 29 points) ~ 9% for the season.

2017 - 3 significant losses (59, 41, 29 points) ~ 14% for the season.

2018 - 4 significant losses (48, 91, 56, 47 points) ~ 18% for the season.

2019 - 6 significant losses (32, 27, 57, 27, 66, 34 points) ~ 27% for the season.

2020 - 9 significant losses (75, 53, 37, 33, 69, 51, 57, 28, 44 points) ~ 53% for the season (shortened season of 17 minor rounds due to Covid).

2021 - 10 significant losses (33, 67, 49, 30, 28, 52, 63, 42, 49, 41 points) ~ 45% for the season.

2022 - 10 significant losses (42, 59, 48, 36, 42, 43, 29, 32, 33, 56 points) ~ 45% for the season.

2023 (thus far) - 2 significant losses (32, 45 points) ~ 13% for the season (out of currently 16 games).

 

[John Who]

So from what the stats in the above show, I think:
- our premiership window was in 2016-2017, and surprisingly, we might have actually played better in 2016 than 2017. I looked at the stats - we won 16 games in 2016 and 15 1/2 games in 2017.

- we weren’t all that bad in 2018 where most of our losses were more the close ones. But a sign nevertheless we were on the slide from 2018-2019.

- 2020-2022 we have been completely shit, but expected in a rebuild phase. Good to see the big losses have been lesser and a >10 goal loss has not been seen since 2021.

- 2023 despite our current ranking, we have been a lot more competitive compared with the rebuild of 2021-2022. Our “bad losses” this year are surprisingly comparable to 2017 season. The big difference is that we haven’t won as many games, doh!

- next phase in the rebuild - be more friggin’ accurate with the goal kicking!

 

[John Who]

One more twist. Out of the 2 “significant losses”, the one to the Tigers in round 2 probably stings the most. We had 26 scoring shots to their 23 and should have been a lot closer if kicked at average accuracy. If we kicked truly, a win then would have us sit on 5th currently, and not 9th.

Pretty crazy how one poor game of bad kicking for goals could be the difference between nearly making the top 4 and not even able to make the top 8!

 

[ams4crows]

The most significant home and away loss is the last round in 2016 against West Coast at home, win that and we finish top 2 because we lost we finished 5th

If we got a home prelim final against the Bulldogs we could have won that and played Sydney in the Grandfinal.

 

[MarcusP2]

The most significant home and away loss is the last round in 2016 against West Coast at home, win that and we finish top 2 because we lost we finished 5th

If we got a home prelim final against the Bulldogs we could have won that and played Sydney in the Grandfinal.

I think we were better in 2016 than 2017.

At least that time it was our own flopping that cost us rather than 2008 Essendon tanking.

 

[phill5158]

This goes way back before 2015 as well, this does not make for good reading. 4 seasons highlighted here where we cost ourselves top 4 and 2023 potentially as well

2003- 1 game and percentage off
1 pt loss to Fremantle
5 pt loss to Collingwood
5 pt loss to Hawthorn
8 pt loss to St Kilda
10 pt loss to North Melbourne
12 pt loss to Port

2008- 1% off
3 pt loss to Western Bulldogs
4 pt loss to Hawthorn
12 pt loss to Port
13 pt loss to Brisbane

2009- 1 game and percentage off
2 pt loss to Geelong
26 pt loss to Port

2016- 4.9% off
3 pt loss to Hawthorn
10 pt loss to North Melbourne
15 pt loss to Western Bulldogs
29 pt loss to West Coast at home for top 2

2023
1 pt loss to Collingwood
2 pt loss to Collingwood
16 pt loss to GWS
18 pt loss to Essendon


On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WetCrow1991]

This goes way back before 2015 as well, this does not make for good reading. 4 seasons highlighted here where we cost ourselves top 4 and 2023 potentially as well

2003- 1 game and percentage off
1 pt loss to Fremantle
5 pt loss to Collingwood
5 pt loss to Hawthorn
8 pt loss to St Kilda
10 pt loss to North Melbourne
12 pt loss to Port

2008- 1% off
3 pt loss to Western Bulldogs
4 pt loss to Hawthorn
12 pt loss to Port
13 pt loss to Brisbane

2009- 1 game and percentage off
2 pt loss to Geelong
26 pt loss to Port

2016- 4.9% off
3 pt loss to Hawthorn
10 pt loss to North Melbourne
15 pt loss to Western Bulldogs
29 pt loss to West Coast at home for top 2

2023
1 pt loss to Collingwood
2 pt loss to Collingwood
16 pt loss to GWS
18 pt loss to Essendon


On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

2003 was quiet bad, we were 2nd with 3 rounds to go.

 

[WetCrow1991]

Nah would have probably finished 3rd, Geelong were almost 5% above us.

Another bad loss that year was to the Hawks. Brodie Smith basically singlehandedly delivered that loss after were up by 3 goals in the 4th.

The most significant home and away loss is the last round in 2016 against West Coast at home, win that and we finish top 2 because we lost we finished 5th

If we got a home prelim final against the Bulldogs we could have won that and played Sydney in the Grandfinal.

 

[MarcusP2]

Nah would have probably finished 3rd, Geelong were almost 5% above us.

Another bad loss that year was to the Hawks. Brodie Smith basically singlehandedly delivered that loss after were up by 3 goals in the 4th.

Yes it would've been another 2008 situation because Geelong destroyed Melbourne by 100 points in the last round.

 

[PCORF]

The most significant home and away loss is the last round in 2016 against West Coast at home, win that and we finish top 2 because we lost we finished 5th

If we got a home prelim final against the Bulldogs we could have won that and played Sydney in the Grandfinal.

I reckon that game was the difference in 2016 and I truly believed we could have gone all the way that year. We were awful that game vs West Coast.

EF vs North meant nothing.