Strategy Aaron Naughton - Key Defender or Key Forward?

[_Cerberus_]

Obviously his accuracy isn't much worse than some others. But I'm curious how his set shots 25-35m out directly in front or on slight angle (inside 45 degrees) stacks up. Feels like we are the worst team in the league from missing set shots, from favourable positions just from watching us. Where league wide the average conversion rate from those positions means we should get those more often than we do.

The getable goals are the killers in close games. Probably costs us three goals a game and momentum. No expecting him to nail tight ones from the boundary or 50m out. I just want to see the WHOLE team be accountable and stop choking on the ones we should get. Spraying a 20m kick wide right in front is inexcusable for players who have been kicking a ball for more than 10 years of their lives.

People make fun of womens football, but men have 150 years behind them, and kicking skills across the league are worse now than a decade ago. It's is like clubs prioritize athletes over pure footballers these days. The ability to kick accurately under pressure and make smart decisions, should be number one thing we look for, for the next crop of midfielders and forwards we draft.

 

[NBates]

You seem quite buoyed by it all.

Very entertaining - needed a cheering up...

 

[Next Waiting]

Very entertaining - needed a cheering up...

All in all it's a little premature to suggest his career as forward with us is on the rocks and that he could become the centre point of Sydney's attack right out of the blue. Mountains and valleys. That's what we're about.

 

[tonzdogs]

His kicking has always been erratic but he’s still a 40-50 goal a year key forward even if he doesn’t improve his kicking. And 50+ per year if he does.

He had the sixth most scoring shots in the entire competition last year. You don’t move him to CHB because 6 of them were behinds instead of goals.

He lets us down regularly

 

[dogwatch]

Obviously his accuracy isn't much worse than some others. But I'm curious how his set shots 25-35m out directly in front or on slight angle (inside 45 degrees) stacks up. Feels like we are the worst team in the league from missing set shots, from favourable positions just from watching us. Where league wide the average conversion rate from those positions means we should get those more often than we do.

The getable goals are the killers in close games. Probably costs us three goals a game and momentum. No expecting him to nail tight ones from the boundary or 50m out. I just want to see the WHOLE team be accountable and stop choking on the ones we should get. Spraying a 20m kick wide right in front is inexcusable for players who have been kicking a ball for more than 10 years of their lives.

People make fun of womens football, but men have 150 years behind them, and kicking skills across the league are worse now than a decade ago. It's is like clubs prioritize athletes over pure footballers these days. The ability to kick accurately under pressure and make smart decisions, should be number one thing we look for, for the next crop of midfielders and forwards we draft.

Agree with your first paragraph.
The fact that he misses an alarming number of simple set shots is certainly what riles a lot of people. Because they are apparently easy shots it riles them much more than (for example) Jamarra's overall miss rate which is statistically worse than Naughton's. So yes it demands some scrutiny. They are deflating but I think the loss of momentum from those particular misses features more in our minds than the players' because we had mentally "banked" the goal before it was kicked. We also have to offset that by looking at the scoring opportunities he gets that others simply don't. How else does someone who supposedly can't hit the side of a barn kick 50 goals a season?

In any case it is not a sufficient justification to send him to defence. As I've pointed out before, his production as a KPF over the last 2 and a bit years has been borderline elite, at least as far as this club's history with KPFs go. He's already among the best KPFs in the AFL. If he can improve his kicking he'll be even better.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Agree with your first paragraph.
The fact that he misses an alarming number of simple set shots is certainly what riles a lot of people. Because they are apparently easy shots it riles them much more than (for example) Jamarra's overall miss rate which is statistically worse than Naughton's. So yes it demands some scrutiny. They are deflating but I think the loss of momentum from those particular misses features more in our minds than the players' because we had mentally "banked" the goal before it was kicked. We also have to offset that by looking at the scoring opportunities he gets that others simply don't. How else does someone who supposedly can't hit the side of a barn kick 50 goals a season?

In any case it is not a sufficient justification to send him to defence. As I've pointed out before, his production as a KPF over the last 2 and a bit years has been borderline elite, at least as far as this club's history with KPFs go. He's already among the best KPFs in the AFL. If he can improve his kicking he'll be even better.

Yeah I agree with your points there. I want to persist with him in the forward line as well. Because I think the way we play and the structures are the number one problem, even more than accuracy. We should be getting more marks inside 50 with the amount of ball we get inside. If anything I'd try him at CHF and use his marking up the ground, but we know Lobb and Jamarra are both better kicks at distances, hence why those two likely play high more than Naughton. And Naughtons ground ball game, which is the best of our talls, is more suited close to goals when it spills.

I just want to see us start nailing those shots in front from short distances, and that goes to all players. Bont is as bad as Naughton when it comes to them. And to stand up more vs the stronger teams. DeKoning with years less in the system should not be beating him every match up.

But fix the system and how we play first.

 

[doggies ftw]

Also it’s kinda funny but he’s literally our most accurate forward, more accurate than all of Marra, Lobb, Cody & AJ he’s the only issue though

 

[tonzdogs]

Also it’s kinda funny but he’s literally our most accurate forward, more accurate than all of Marra, Lobb, Cody & AJ he’s the only issue though

No chance he’s more accurate than Cody. I’d much rather the ball in Cody’s hands from 30 out than Naughton’s or Bont’s!

 

[doggies ftw]

No chance he’s more accurate than Cody. I’d much rather the ball in Cody’s hands from 30 out than Naughton’s or Bont’s!

Haha nah I agree, Cody is a great set shot. Just pointing out that statistically Naughty is our most accurate kick this year - stats don’t lie, there’s plenty of issues let’s not make out like Naughty is the only one

 

[LondonBulldog]

Haha nah I agree, Cody is a great set shot. Just pointing out that statistically Naughty is our most accurate kick this year - stats don’t lie, there’s plenty of issues let’s not make out like Naughty is the only one

That stats fail to take into account were the misses are from. Naughton misses too many shots from under 40 straight to a slight angle and this is the issue. 50% from there is terrible, lets not sugar coat it. The worst aspect is that I can tell you which side 90% of those misses are to. The left.....and nothing has been done about it. Bont is the same, his short misses are always to the left.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Slightly off the heading but in line with recent discussion here. Five points down siren goes in the GF we have a set shot from a mark 35 metres out slight angle who do you want to take the shot. Well not Bont, Astro, JUH or Lobb. I think it is between JJ, Dale, Libba or Weightman. Only one is playing forward at present I guess that says it all about our goal kicking. My choice is Libba.

 

[LittleG]

Slightly off the heading but in line with recent discussion here. Five points down siren goes in the GF we have a set shot from a mark 35 metres out slight angle who do you want to take the shot. Well not Bont, Astro, JUH or Lobb. I think it is between JJ, Dale, Libba or Weightman. Only one is playing forward at present I guess that says it all about our goal kicking. My choice is Libba.

Libba is the only rational choice.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

Haha nah I agree, Cody is a great set shot. Just pointing out that statistically Naughty is our most accurate kick this year - stats don’t lie, there’s plenty of issues let’s not make out like Naughty is the only one

What stands out to me is that JUH is getting a lot of misses from 40m+ out, while Naughton seems to be missing from the 25m at the slightest angle. Comparing difficulty of shot, Naughton frustrates me a hell of a lot more than JUH does. I think the reason Naughton cops more heat is because he's more experienced, AND we know he's capable of playing in defence, whereas JUH has no alternative positions to even consider

 

[tonzdogs]

Macrae should be playing closer to goal. Worth a shot. Doesn’t get get many shots on goal, but when he does…..

 

[doggies ftw]

That stats fail to take into account were the misses are from. Naughton misses too many shots from under 40 straight to a slight angle and this is the issue. 50% from there is terrible, lets not sugar coat it. The worst aspect is that I can tell you which side 90% of those misses are to. The left.....and nothing has been done about it. Bont is the same, his short misses are always to the left.

That’s true but you also have to ask yourself if his kicking is so poor then how does he generate enough easy shots on goal to go at a similar % to say Jeremy Cameron, in a god awful forward line with terrible delivery. Why aren’t Marra & Lobb generating the same looks?

People act like we could swap in any tall campaigner who can kick straight and he’d automatically get the same looks on goal as Naughty - may as well have kept shache if that was the case…

 

[doggies ftw]

What stands out to me is that JUH is getting a lot of misses from 40m+ out, while Naughton seems to be missing from the 25m at the slightest angle. Comparing difficulty of shot, Naughton frustrates me a hell of a lot more than JUH does. I think the reason Naughton cops more heat is because he's more experienced, AND we know he's capable of playing in defence, whereas JUH has no alternative positions to even consider

I love Marra I think he’s a genuine superstar in the making, he’s having one of the statistically worse goal kicking years from a player on record. I don’t give a **** if he’s missing them from 15 or 55 on an angle to be honest, anyone who doesn’t think that he’s obviously a bigger issue than Naughty right now is kidding themselves

No doubt he sorts it out though

 

[tonzdogs]

That’s true but you also have to ask yourself if his kicking is so poor then how does he generate enough easy shots on goal to go at a similar % to say Jeremy Cameron, in a god awful forward line with terrible delivery. Why aren’t Marra & Lobb generating the same looks?

People act like we could swap in any tall campaigner who can kick straight and he’d automatically get the same looks on goal as Naughty - may as well have kept shache if that was the case…

His name is Bruce and he knows how to lead, mark and kick pretty straight

 

[Nat Fyfe]

I love Marra I think he’s a genuine superstar in the making, he’s having one of the statistically worse goal kicking years from a player on record. I don’t give a * if he’s missing them from 15 or 55 on an angle to be honest, anyone who doesn’t think that he’s obviously a bigger issue than Naughty right now is kidding themselves

No doubt he sorts it out though

Yeah I can understand it, especially when he was nailing a lot of those last year. My concern is Naughton went from 51.34 last year (not counting misses) to currently sitting at 22.18, which is a fairly drastic fall in accuracy for a guy in his 5th year forward. Ugle-Hagan, on the other hand, has gone from 18.16 to 14.19 this year. Ugle-Hagan may be less accurate, but he's taken on a role that pushes him further up the ground, averaging 3 extra disposals, 1 extra mark and 1 extra i50 per game, while slightly improving his goal average. So he's ahead on most metrics, especially his total shots on goal, he's just been wasting a lot of those opportunities (already kicked more behinds than last year, in 5 less games, without even considering the misses).

Overall, JUH is struggling with accuracy but has very clearly improved as a player and has only played 34 games so far. Naughton, on the other hand, has arguably gone backwards and has played more than 3 times as many games. His disposal count is the same, marks the same, but a mile behind last year's scoring output. As a senior player and leader at the club, he should be held to a higher standard.

Our fixture so far, considering travel and opponents, has done him no favours. I hope that after the bye rounds he's able to play himself into some form and the discussion of moving to defence can go away.

 

[Dogs 13]

That stats fail to take into account were the misses are from. Naughton misses too many shots from under 40 straight to a slight angle and this is the issue. 50% from there is terrible, lets not sugar coat it. The worst aspect is that I can tell you which side 90% of those misses are to. The left.....and nothing has been done about it. Bont is the same, his short misses are always to the left.

I have a recurring nightmare of Bont hitting the post far more often than you would expect.
I feel we're the kings of posters.

I assume Oliver Gigacz has already addressed this phenomenon, is it actually happening or just a figment of my imagination ?

 

[Some Idiot]

I love Marra I think he’s a genuine superstar in the making, he’s having one of the statistically worse goal kicking years from a player on record. I don’t give a * if he’s missing them from 15 or 55 on an angle to be honest, anyone who doesn’t think that he’s obviously a bigger issue than Naughty right now is kidding themselves

No doubt he sorts it out though

Marra has sprayed so many from about 50m, it has me questioning whether he should be taking those shots. Just put it the top of the goal square sometimes at least.

 

[doggiesin08]

Marra was a better set shot with Mia Fevola on the scene. Can we get her down to the club as a trainee myotherapist or something to see if it helps?

 

[doggies ftw]

Marra has sprayed so many from about 50m, it has me questioning whether he should be taking those shots. Just put it the top of the goal square sometimes at least.

Yeah it’s the same thing every time, sprays straight left off the boot and doesn’t make the distance. It’s a tough one because he’s obviously capable of these - I mean I watched him put a ball through 10m back from 65+ in a vfl game, the Melbourne game winner too etc. He has a huge boot, and I have no doubt he’d regularly nail these at training, so it’s hard to say don’t take on shots you know you’re capable of kicking, I’d rather back him in to an extent.

But it’s so bad with those long shots right now I think he just has to start laying them off until he finds some confidence.

 

[immortalmike]

Slightly off the heading but in line with recent discussion here. Five points down siren goes in the GF we have a set shot from a mark 35 metres out slight angle who do you want to take the shot. Well not Bont, Astro, JUH or Lobb. I think it is between JJ, Dale, Libba or Weightman. Only one is playing forward at present I guess that says it all about our goal kicking. My choice is Libba.

Macrae.

 

[maddog37]

Slightly off the heading but in line with recent discussion here. Five points down siren goes in the GF we have a set shot from a mark 35 metres out slight angle who do you want to take the shot. Well not Bont, Astro, JUH or Lobb. I think it is between JJ, Dale, Libba or Weightman. Only one is playing forward at present I guess that says it all about our goal kicking. My choice is Libba.

I’m already heading to the bar to drown my sorrows.

 

[Next Waiting]

Slightly off the heading but in line with recent discussion here. Five points down siren goes in the GF we have a set shot from a mark 35 metres out slight angle who do you want to take the shot. Well not Bont, Astro, JUH or Lobb. I think it is between JJ, Dale, Libba or Weightman. Only one is playing forward at present I guess that says it all about our goal kicking. My choice is Libba.

Libba or English