Current Abduction of 4yo Blowholes Shacks WA *Terence Kelly Convicted

[Kurve]

MEDIA
Current - The Bunker Part 2

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Especially given the stepfamily dynamics. Mum has said she's previously felt like it's her and Cleo against the world...she's upset that he didn't wake up and protect Cleo....she also knows that's not reasonable because she didn't wake up. It's grief.

I said this a week ago, there is a definite divide present during the interview.
Mum talks in a way that suggests two different relationships within the one dynamic, her and Cleo and her, her partner and their little baby.
Having grown up in Elizabeth, hybrid families are/were the norm and in many cases children from previous relationships are treated differently after a new child from a current union arrives, so whilst Step dad may have been a great father figure to Cleo from early on, its the last 7 months that tell the bigger story.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

So we have a tackle box, a fishing rod and a long neck bottle of wine?

Looks like a cascade bottle

 

[PenfoldsFan]

So what? My point is that I don’t think anything of substance can be gleaned from analysing the dynamic in a press conference either way. You’re the one trying to make out it can, and that it falls a particular way.

No, im simply suggesting that if it was a tragic accident that occurred while Step dad was in custody of Cleo it may explain why she reacted as she did when he touched her, its you who doesnt want to give that any consideration and have applied your own feelings to it.
The reaction is not the smoking gun, it is purely a subconscious reaction that couldnt be scripted or prepared for, its as natural as can be, but combined with the missing child, the missing sleeping bag, the tacklebox on the table of a guy who knows the area as he grew up in it and is a self professed hunter of the sea, i find it hard to believe, as a regular camper, that you'd rock up to a seaside location, setup camp, dig out your tacklebox and go to bed.
What i've suggested is probably the most likely scenario that encompasses all the known facts, it explains the missing child, it explains the missing sleeping bag, it explains the demeanor of the Step dad and it may well explain her reaction.

But its probably some random dude in the bush who saw the child in the brief 90 minutes she was present and not in bed of the original story and snatched her from right next to two adults before disappearing into the night.

 

[Redacted]

I think everyone is making the bottle into this

https://www.danmurphys.com.au/product/DM_819686/scape-goat-premium-lower-sugar-apple-cider-330ml

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[Kurve]

I think the press and the police are being very careful to stress they're not suggesting that Cleo's family were involved because they know something we don't and it's probably in the CCTV imo.

They're not going to tell us and in turn, the offender who's no doubt watching, what they've got.

Like this:

The ABC is not suggesting that Cleo's family were in any way involved in her disappearance.

Forensics officers gather evidence of possible scoping at Cleo Smith's home

A week after four-year-old Cleo Smith disappeared, a forensics squad has gathered evidence at the family's Carnarvon home. The ABC understands police are investigating whether someone had scoped the house, but there is no suggestion that Cleo's family were involved in her disappearance.

www.abc.net.au

 

[ms finch]

No, im simply suggesting that if it was a tragic accident that occurred while Step dad was in custody of Cleo it may explain why she reacted as she did when he touched her, its you who doesnt want to give that any consideration and have applied your own feelings to it.
The reaction is not the smoking gun, it is purely a subconscious reaction that couldnt be scripted or prepared for, its as natural as can be, but combined with the missing child, the missing sleeping bag, the tacklebox on the table of a guy who knows the area as he grew up in it and is a self professed hunter of the sea, i find it hard to believe, as a regular camper, that you'd rock up to a seaside location, setup camp, dig out your tacklebox and go to bed.
What i've suggested is probably the most likely scenario that encompasses all the known facts, it explains the missing child, it explains the missing sleeping bag, it explains the demeanor of the Step dad and it may well explain her reaction.

But its probably some random dude in the bush who saw the child in the brief 90 minutes she was present and not in bed of the original story and snatched her from right next to two adults before disappearing into the night.

You are focusing on one explanation for the behaviour in the press conference. I’m saying there could be half a dozen possibilities. You are factoring your narrow interpretation of the press conference into a theory, as evidence. I’m saying I wouldn’t factor it in one way or another, either for or against any theory. How is this me letting my feelings get in the way rather than you?

The assumptions that people will behave a particular way, especially women, is exactly the sort of stereotyping that got Lindy Chamberlain convicted. We know how dangerous it is and how wrong it can be.

You’ve done exactly the same thing with the rod and tackle box. You have assumed it must have been there from the night before and that if it was that is therefore evidence the step dad went fishing. There is no way of knowing when it was put there before the photo was taken, let alone any evidence whatsoever to suggest anyone went fishing the night before.

To say yours is the most likely scenario when it is literally all extraordinary assumptions and leaps of logic is bizarre. I could make as strong a case for an alien abduction.

 

[Falconista]

i often remember a warning issued to me by my father figure regarding risk to personal security, and not knowing who you can trust when innocently revealing the simplest of information.
i'm unable to recall where the incident took place, and although unrelated to this case, i'll throw it in as food for thought...
a family, preparing for a short holiday, made some adjustments to routine services for the term of their absence, one of which was to suspend the daily delivery of fresh milk to their doorstep ... during the first few hours of their road trip, suddenly realising they'd forgotten something crucial, it was necessary to 180° and head straight back home where, upon arrival, they were shocked to see their home contents being loaded into a small truck parked in the driveway. deciding not to intervene they instead called the police who attended and promptly arrested one very opportunist milkman.


imho

You have articulated my thoughts on this matter very well.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was someone based in Carnarvon who took the child. Was Cleo's new bike bought/delivered in the last week or two- did they tell the delivery driver/shop attendant "my little girl is going to love this when we go camping in a few weeks"? Did they tell a work colleague or a newsagent etc? I know in Geraldton, where I grew up, word used to spread quickly and Carnarvon is about a quarter or third of the size so many people know each others business.

 

[daniologist]

I can understand Mum hanging around the campsite with the baby at night but i struggle to believe why Step Dad wouldnt be out wetting a line on the first night.
There appears to be a tackle box on the table so fishing was obviously a planned activity.

Very rare to go beach fishing at night at this time of year on the western trade coast - it's called that because it cops the trade winds, steady WSW up above 15k every single afternoon, making beach and fishing just sh!tty. In Sept-Oct-Nov and into Dec-Jan it just blows and blows every afternoon.

 

[Hai_Newman]

You are focusing on one explanation for the behaviour in the press conference. I’m saying there could be half a dozen possibilities. You are factoring your narrow interpretation of the press conference into a theory, as evidence. I’m saying I wouldn’t factor it in one way or another, either for or against any theory. How is this me letting my feelings get in the way rather than you?

The assumptions that people will behave a particular way, especially women, is exactly the sort of stereotyping that got Lindy Chamberlain convicted. We know how dangerous it is and how wrong it can be.

You’ve done exactly the same thing with the rod and tackle box. You have assumed it must have been there from the night before and that if it was that is therefore evidence the step dad went fishing. There is no way of knowing when it was put there before the photo was taken, let alone any evidence whatsoever to suggest anyone went fishing the night before.

To say yours is the most likely scenario when it is literally all extraordinary assumptions and leaps of logic is bizarre. I could make as strong a case for an alien abduction.

Get married kents

 

[deanc]

I said this a week ago, there is a definite divide present during the interview.
Mum talks in a way that suggests two different relationships within the one dynamic, her and Cleo and her, her partner and their little baby.
Having grown up in Elizabeth, hybrid families are/were the norm and in many cases children from previous relationships are treated differently after a new child from a current union arrives, so whilst Step dad may have been a great father figure to Cleo from early on, its the last 7 months that tell the bigger story.

Not sure about a divide - but as I said a week ago, the couple would of been encouraged/briefed by the police not/not to provide anything more than a 'summary of events' to the media, which is what actually took place - and I'm sure police were also in the room ready to interject if the media pursued further details.

Details they may include the couples actual activities and movements on the night, that police did not want publicly disclosed including the couple sitting outside the tent under the Gazebo for a period of time after Mum gave Cleo some water at 1:30am..?
Quite plausible as the better half and I, during our previous camping trips, used to often spend nights sitting outside the tent playing cards with the kids asleep inside.

 

[ms finch]

I think the press and the police are being very careful to stress they're not suggesting that Cleo's family were involved because they know something we don't and it's probably in the CCTV imo.

They're not going to tell us and in turn, the offender who's no doubt watching, what they've got.

Like this:

The ABC is not suggesting that Cleo's family were in any way involved in her disappearance.

Forensics officers gather evidence of possible scoping at Cleo Smith's home

A week after four-year-old Cleo Smith disappeared, a forensics squad has gathered evidence at the family's Carnarvon home. The ABC understands police are investigating whether someone had scoped the house, but there is no suggestion that Cleo's family were involved in her disappearance.

www.abc.net.au

Good point, actually, about the fact that them being so adamant the family aren’t involved is due to having some other info.

I think differently, though. I think they’ve got nothing at all and are grasping for any information they can get - hence the request for such extensive footage and huge reward at this early stage. I think they’ve all but ruled the family out due to reasoning - they have probably given consistent and identical stories when questioned repeatedly separately; everything checks out; no motive. I think they are being firm on it due to have awful that type of speculation is.

I think the chances of Cleo being alive are slim to none, and the same with her being found. I think the window for solving this without years of painstaking work and a lot of luck is rapidly closing.

 

[Hai_Newman]

Very rare to go beach fishing at night at this time of year on the western trade coast - it's called that because it cops the trade winds, steady WSW up above 15k every single afternoon, making beach and fishing just sh!tty. In Sept-Oct-Nov and into Dec-Jan it just blows and blows every afternoon.

Shit post, you can pick your days to fish quite easily.

 

[BFew]

I wonder if the caretaker (or anyone else camping there) has access to a boat?

My question is how many boats?

From his social media profiles, looks like he's a keen fisherman, and there is what looks like a silver tinny boat on a trailor in the background of one of his social media pics.

Then there's his Tuckerbox business that sell's fish & chips & donuts to the locals/campers. .
Also linking him to fishing and probably boats, his business had a trading name of APPOLO XII FISHERIES. (sourced from his 2002 cancelled partnership ABN with a business partner.

A Council map I posted in here last week has the position of a 'Boat launching over the beach' spot, as about 400m SE of where Cleo's family tent was pitched.

 

[Kurve]

Good point, actually, about the fact that them being so adamant the family aren’t involved is due to having some other info.

We can have CCTV of an abductor and not have enough to make an identification is what I'm thinking. A shadowy figure that made the approach and went to the tent then disappeared into the scrub or similar.

Enough to know though, that the parents weren't involved. This is where I'm at atm.

 

[BFew]

I think everyone is making the bottle into this

https://www.danmurphys.com.au/product/DM_819686/scape-goat-premium-lower-sugar-apple-cider-330ml

Seriously.
It's more like a

 

[deanc]

I think the chances of Cleo being alive are slim to none, and the same with her being found. I think the window for solving this without years of painstaking work and a lot of luck is rapidly closing.

Window closes on Tuesday - according to our friends in the US, in most missing child/abduction cases, unless there is some physical discovery of evidence or a verifiable eye witness account within the first 10 days, then the likelihood of finding the child and/or the perpetrator dramatically reduces...

 

[Redacted]

There is not a one size fits all in these situations. It’s one of the dangers of micro analysing every movement of someone in a press conference. There’s a very high chance I would react exactly the same way, for no reason other than I don’t like being touched. My point was to highlight the fact that assuming someone will react a particular way on things like that without knowing them or any context is pointless.

Maybe she was annoyed about something trivial or they had an argument just before the press conference. Maybe she blames him for not putting the fly down. Maybe she’s just angry at the whole world because her child is missing, which wouldn’t be unusual.

Tend to agree.
It could be as simple as being in denial, and that accepting comfort would mean accepting reality.
And her subconscious refuses to accept reality.
Hence shying away from the touch.

And what she said they done when they discovered Cleo missing tends to fit with being in denial, which is a natural reaction to most people when faced with an unimaginable horror. Then they stayed on at the blowholes expecting her to show up. Might be illogical to us, but if you experience the same, would your subconscious react any different?

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[BFew]

Looks like a cascade bottle

Cascade bottle shape and label shape match better than a Strongbow.
Possibly just one of the Cascade soft drinks.

 

[Redacted]

Seriously.
It's more like a

View attachment 1266865

You didn't read the name. Have another look.
A penny should drop.

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[Awakening]

We can have CCTV of an abductor and not have enough to make an identification is what I'm thinking. A shadowy figure that made the approach and went to the tent then disappeared into the scrub or similar.

Enough to know though, that the parents weren't involved. This is where I'm at atm.

I tend to agree.

Although I confess I have watched most episodes of "See No Evil" an American or Canadian true crime show that presents how culprits were caught by the assistance of various CCTV, dashcam etc footage.

In 99% of cases the footage is terrible. Very grainy, has to be enhanced many times by forensics to see anything, too dark, wrong angle, sensor activated & so on.

Often, I wonder how the hell LE saw anything as I squint my eyes & tilt my head.

It can even come down to not actually seeing anything but picking up shadows, a reflection, change in lighting.

They tend to solve the case by piecing together a series of bad quality footage.

They may vaguely identify a car arriving & leaving in the right time frame but with only a vague description ie shaped like a small car, sedan, truck and dark coloured or light coloured, or a unique feature (stickers, fancy headlights, some sort of writing on the side of the vehicle) and then they work out possible directions suspect vehicle could have gone in & get footage from those different areas & hope to be able to pick out the same vehicle & so on & so on until they get better resolution footage, an image of a person or house.

So I think it's entirely possible that the CCTV on the shack has picked up some sort of movement in or around their tent but is of poor quality.

 

[BFew]

Very rare to go beach fishing at night at this time of year on the western trade coast - it's called that because it cops the trade winds, steady WSW up above 15k every single afternoon, making beach and fishing just sh!tty. In Sept-Oct-Nov and into Dec-Jan it just blows and blows every afternoon.

What about places like what looks like, the more sheltered (in parts) Point Quobba Lagoon? (where fishing is illegal).

https://www.fish.wa.gov.au/Documents/recreational_fishing/fhpa/fpha_point_quobba.pdf

'In calm conditions the Point Quobba Lagoon provides an excellent place for children to learn to swim and to gain an awareness of the marine environment. To preserve this special area it is designated as a fish habitat protection area (FHPA).'

'The Point Quobba coral reef and lagoon were originally protected by a 400 m fishing closure made in 1987. This prohibited taking all fish and aquatic organisms except for oysters taken by hand. Following public consultation, in 2004 Point Quobba was set aside to ensure the conservation of fish and the aquatic ecosystem in the vicinity of the reef.

In July 2009, new legislation gave protection to the entire coral reef and lagoon area (see the map on page 3 for details).

The waters around Point Quobba are valued by local people because they are clear and largely protected from open ocean swell. It is an excellent place for swimming, snorkelling and shore-based fishing.'

 

[Kurve]

.

I tend to agree.

Although I confess I have watched most episodes of "See No Evil" an American or Canadian true crime show that presents how culprits were caught by the assistance of various CCTV, dashcam etc footage.

In 99% of cases the footage is terrible. Very grainy, has to be enhanced many times by forensics to see anything, too dark, wrong angle, sensor activated & so on.

Often, I wonder how the hell LE saw anything as I squint my eyes & tilt my head.

It can even come down to not actually seeing anything but picking up shadows, a reflection, change in lighting.

They tend to solve the case by piecing together a series of bad quality footage.

They may vaguely identify a car arriving & leaving in the right time frame but with only a vague description ie shaped like a small car, sedan, truck and dark coloured or light coloured, or a unique feature (stickers, fancy headlights, some sort of writing on the side of the vehicle) and then they work out possible directions suspect vehicle could have gone in & get footage from those different areas & hope to be able to pick out the same vehicle & so on & so on until they get better resolution footage, an image of a person or house.

So I think it's entirely possible that the CCTV on the shack has picked up some sort of movement in or around their tent but is of poor quality.

I was thinking of Delphi where one of the girls took video of this guy just before they were murdered. It's fair quality with audio and in full daylight, years later he still can't be identified. Far better to have it than not but sometimes it just isn't enough even in good conditions.

 

[NSWCROW]

Suss-as

 

[BFew]

I wonder how the hell LE saw anything as I squint my eyes & tilt my head.
It can even come down to not actually seeing anything but picking up shadows, a reflection, change in lighting.
They tend to solve the case by piecing together a series of bad quality footage.

Not too much different to what occurs here in the crime boards.
Except the bit about solving the case.

 

[broken paradigm]

You are focusing on one explanation for the behaviour in the press conference. I’m saying there could be half a dozen possibilities. You are factoring your narrow interpretation of the press conference into a theory, as evidence. I’m saying I wouldn’t factor it in one way or another, either for or against any theory. How is this me letting my feelings get in the way rather than you?

The assumptions that people will behave a particular way, especially women, is exactly the sort of stereotyping that got Lindy Chamberlain convicted. We know how dangerous it is and how wrong it can be.

You’ve done exactly the same thing with the rod and tackle box. You have assumed it must have been there from the night before and that if it was that is therefore evidence the step dad went fishing. There is no way of knowing when it was put there before the photo was taken, let alone any evidence whatsoever to suggest anyone went fishing the night before.

To say yours is the most likely scenario when it is literally all extraordinary assumptions and leaps of logic is bizarre. I could make as strong a case for an alien abduction.

I agree as we don't know if the rod and tackle box were placed there in the morning do we, they may not have been left out overnight as Jake would know about the problem of thieves around the area for sure. A lot of the gear found outside may have been in the vehicle and taken out when they used the vehicle to search in the morning.

The parents were sleeping in the same tent however they were positioned behind a room divider therefore not literally laying beside Cleo or the baby.

Forensic study of the zipper will surely give up DNA of whoever handled the zipper.

What I am now concerned about it all of the so-called semi or professional photographers that offer families in the Carnarvon area their portrait services via Facebook and they quite often have a kind of lottery for such a service.

Montague Photography apparently took a lot of the family portraits the week leading up to the abduction.

Has anyone made out where the family lived in Carnarvon?