Recommitted Adam Cerra [re-signed]

[Walkingwounded]

Kelly & 14?

That's overs.

Actually it’s also irrelevant.. not sure Freo is even interested in Kelly. Maybe as steak knives but not as key part of the main part of the deal. Re pick 14..... LOL

Age of 23 ...... naaa only as steak knives..

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Kelly wants to head home I reckon Geelong would offer up Kelly plus our first. I'd say that's at least getting into the ballpark of what might tempt freo to give him up if he's got no interest in staying in the west. He's worth a lot more than Kelly + a late pick.

Kelly's worth about as much as Cerra on his own without adding a first rounder in.

 

[theGav56]

Kelly & 14?

That's overs.

Maybe a little bit. Not sure though. 14 is significantly under for Cerra, and maybe around Kelly’s value. For Cerra I think you need pick 5 plus....

 

[theGav56]

Kelly's worth about as much as Cerra on his own without adding a first rounder in.

Not a chance.

 

[Turbocat]

Maybe a little bit. Not sure though. 14 is significantly under for Cerra, and maybe around Kelly’s value. For Cerra I think you need pick 5 plus....

Its all bit theoretical.. as hopefully neither player moves. Imo its easier for kelly to be worth more than he was taken at ..due to the pick number.. Cerra to be worth considering to be traded at 3 back to a Melb team is an extraordinary situation. Few plays taken that early move anyway this early . and this years draft strength. For it to happen or be allowed ..a deal would have to favour Freo.. a biased trade for sure ... yet one may argue the strength of this year draft has that bias. Both players would have enhance their reputation .. what that does to their trade value ..hard to determine. If the Dogs coughed P5 his year one might argue ..thats more than 5 last year.
IF a trade is requestedId say the basic idea of bird in hand applies to both players. Neither club will really want to release a player they value.. and it should ensure good comp. What comp? Who knows. Just how ugly would it be allowed to get , how much do both clubs just want to get something done and move on..

 

[Footy Smarts]

Kelly's worth about as much as Cerra on his own without adding a first rounder in.

Kelly's a good player but nobody would hand over a top 5 draft pick for him. Cerra is a pick 5 who would be worth more now than when he was drafted.

Maybe it's because I saw his best game and haven't seen that much else but I think Cerra is a rare talent. With free agency proven successful teams can bring in good B graders for under their normal wage costs (eg S Selwood and Rivers and rumours around Murphy and Dahlhaus). But they can't get access to elite talent and from what I've seen Cerra is as good a talent as their is out there. I'd have absolutely no qualms giving up Kelly (if he wants out) and our first if it would get a kid who looks like a 300+ game star.

 

[bird_man]

Kelly's worth about as much as Cerra on his own without adding a first rounder in.

No he isn’t. A first rounder is over the top that’s for sure, but Kelly isn’t worth as much as Cerra.

 

[go_the_dockers]

No he isn’t. A first rounder is over the top that’s for sure, but Kelly isn’t worth as much as Cerra.

If someone offered me Kelly and a mid 2nd round pick for Cerra, I would say no.

It would need to be a late 1st rounder and Kelly for it to be considered.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Not a chance.

Kelly's basically the best performed player from the 2017 draft class and would easily go top 5 if it was re-done now. As would Cerra. There's not much between them in terms of value. It's irrelevant i reckon as I doubt Geelong trade Kelly this year anyway but if we did and it was for Cerra we wouldn't be throwing in a first rounder as well.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If someone offered me Kelly and a mid 2nd round pick for Cerra, I would say no.

It would need to be a late 1st rounder and Kelly for it to be considered.

Geelong wouldn't offer that and Geelong don't need Cerra anyway (no disrespect to him I rate him but not a list need for us).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Kelly's a good player but nobody would hand over a top 5 draft pick for him. Cerra is a pick 5 who would be worth more now than when he was drafted.

Maybe it's because I saw his best game and haven't seen that much else but I think Cerra is a rare talent. With free agency proven successful teams can bring in good B graders for under their normal wage costs (eg S Selwood and Rivers and rumours around Murphy and Dahlhaus). But they can't get access to elite talent and from what I've seen Cerra is as good a talent as their is out there. I'd have absolutely no qualms giving up Kelly (if he wants out) and our first if it would get a kid who looks like a 300+ game star.

You're entitled to your opinion but I'll be fairly glad if Stephen Wells doesn't share it.

 

[Taylor]

Kelly's basically the best performed player from the 2017 draft class and would easily go top 5 if it was re-done now. As would Cerra. There's not much between them in terms of value. It's irrelevant i reckon as I doubt Geelong trade Kelly this year anyway but if we did and it was for Cerra we wouldn't be throwing in a first rounder as well.

He really wouldn't go top five in the draft of it was redone now. The biggest shift would be Cerra and Stephenson jumping up and that was because they had question marks over their bodies and whether they were up to AFL football.

The recruiters have all the information on the players now just as they did before and Kelly hasn't suddenly become a teenager again.

Clubs will still pick a talented 18 year old over a talented early twenties player with a top ten pick.

Kelly would absolutely get picked higher up but it would be by another club in their flag zone looking for immediate impact. Similar to Harry Taylor.

 

[Taylor]

If I had the database to search I'd quote the earliest draft pick a player, who turned twenty four in their first season of AFL football, had been taken in the modern era.

I'd hazard a guess it might be pick #24.

 

[Paracleet]

Whether in or out of contract Cerra is going to cost someone a motza if he goes. He's the real deal: You can forget all this Player X and later first rounder rubbish.

 

[Turbocat]

Whether in or out of contract Cerra is going to cost someone a motza if he goes. He's the real deal: You can forget all this Player X and later first rounder rubbish.

If he is out of contract it changes to a degree.

 

[Paracleet]

If he is out of contract it changes to a degree.

It doesn't work that way in my view. Once you get to a certain level of ability being out of contract no longer depresses the 'price'. He'll cost the same next year as he will this year. And if he is a good as many, not just me, think he will be it will be even more at the end of a first extension (the most likely time for him to leave for me).
The problem for him though is that the clubs with chips to pay will likely, as usual, be the smaller Vic clubs who I have this funny feeling will not be the ones he wants to struct his stuff for.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Whether in or out of contract Cerra is going to cost someone a motza if he goes.

Correct, and that applies equally to Fremantle at the end of 2019.

 

[peppy la pew]

If he is out of contract it changes to a degree.

Isn't that a discussion for next year ?

 

[Turbocat]

It doesn't work that way in my view. Once you get to a certain level of ability being out of contract no longer depresses the 'price'. He'll cost the same next year as he will this year. And if he is a good as many, not just me, think he will be it will be even more at the end of a first extension (the most likely time for him to leave for me).
The problem for him though is that the clubs with chips to pay will likely, as usual, be the smaller Vic clubs who I have this funny feeling will not be the ones he wants to struct his stuff for.

No..if he is out of contract you lose some hand. Currently if I offer p14 etc.. you say no he is contracted.. but once uncontracted there is pressure to at least get something done. Put it this way ..if he was out of contract this year... and he says im happy to go and play with Cripps at Carlton..it would put serious pressure to at least get something from them.

 

[Cobbler]

There would be a strong correlation between a players worth and the number of pages and time to contract expiry.

Based on this mathematical formula Cerra is worth 3 x firsts.

By comparison Jayden Short would seemingly be worth a late 5th rounder.

 

[youmewe]

If I had the database to search I'd quote the earliest draft pick a player, who turned twenty four in their first season of AFL football, had been taken in the modern era.

I'd hazard a guess it might be pick #24.

You'd be correct Tayl0r.

The list of highest drafted 20+ year olds being drafted for the first time looks like this:

Draft year -- Player -- Pick no. -- Club -- Age at draft

2017 -- Tim Kelly -- 24 -- Geelong -- 23.
2016 -- Tom Stewart -- 40 -- Geelong -- 23.
2015 -- Marcus Adams -- 35 -- WB's -- 22.
2014 -- Blaine Boekhorst -- 21 -- Carlton -- 21.
2013 -- Rory Lobb -- 29 -- GWS -- 20.
2012 -- Dean Towers -- 22 -- Sydney -- 22.
2011 -- Nathan Blee -- 51 -- Pt Adel. -- 21.
2010 -- Isaac Smith -- 19 -- Hawthorn -- 21.
2009 -- Lewis Jetta -- 14 -- Sydney -- 20.
2008 -- Hayden Ballantyne -- 21 -- Freo -- 21.
2007 -- Harry Taylor -- 17 -- Geelong -- 21.
2006 -- Alwyn Davey -- 36 -- Essendon -- 22.
2005 -- Bernie Vince -- 32 -- Adelaide -- 20.
2004 -- Simon Taylor -- 53 -- Hawthorn -- 22.
2003 -- Cameron Thurley -- 22 -- Geelong -- 21.
2002 -- Ryan Ferguson -- 66 -- Melbourne -- 21.
2001 -- Ricky Mott -- 74 -- Sydney -- 20.
2000 -- No player selected in National Draft.

 

[raffrox]

Now I know what Dees fan feel like when the Jesse Hogan threads get started.

Cerra's value is only going to rise this year and if Weller was pick 2 then I can't see us accepting less than that.

 

[go_the_dockers]

If I had the database to search I'd quote the earliest draft pick a player, who turned twenty four in their first season of AFL football, had been taken in the modern era.

I'd hazard a guess it might be pick #24.

Taylor pick 17??

Was he 22.

 

[Taylor]

Taylor pick 17??

Was he 22.

Yeah he turned 22 in his first year.

No player turning 24 is taken inside the top twenty, let alone the top 5

 

[bird_man]

Kelly's basically the best performed player from the 2017 draft class and would easily go top 5 if it was re-done now. As would Cerra. There's not much between them in terms of value. It's irrelevant i reckon as I doubt Geelong trade Kelly this year anyway but if we did and it was for Cerra we wouldn't be throwing in a first rounder as well.

No he wouldn’t. The campaigner is nearly 24 years old so there is a good reason why he is the best performed player from the draft. Compare him to players his own age and then ask yourself whether he’s worth a top 5 pick.

He is a year older than Blake Acres and having a similar season to him.
There is no way in the world I’d expect a top 5 pick for Blake.